Russia invades Ukraine

[edwin_m]

Does anyone have a general overview of how things are going for Ukraine at the moment?

I must admit that I’ve not been following things recently and I’d appreciate a bit of knowledge if anyone’s up on the cold hard facts.

The war seems to be continuing intensely but with very little change in the front line. Russia has made a few small gains in the east but their northern offensive towards Kharkiv didn't get very far, especially after allies agreed that their weaponry could be used against forces sheltering on their own side of the border. Only a fraction of a percent of Ukraine's land area has changed hands since the start of 2023.

If you want a general summary I find Anders Puck Nielsen on YouTube quite useful - he posts on various topics but does a bit of an update every few months. Other YouTubers produce updates where they scan the front line for changes every few days, but with those it's quite hard to see the big picture.

 

[Cowley]

The war seems to be continuing intensely but with very little change in the front line. Russia has made a few small gains in the east but their northern offensive towards Kharkiv didn't get very far, especially after allies agreed that their weaponry could be used against forces sheltering on their own side of the border. Only a fraction of a percent of Ukraine's land area has changed hands since the start of 2023.

If you want a general summary I find Anders Puck Nielsen on YouTube quite useful - he posts on various topics but does a bit of an update every few months. Other YouTubers produce updates where they scan the front line for changes every few days, but with those it's quite hard to see the big picture.

Thanks Edwin. I’ll have a look at those.

 

[brad465]

Does anyone have a general overview of how things are going for Ukraine at the moment?

I must admit that I’ve not been following things recently and I’d appreciate a bit of knowledge if anyone’s up on the cold hard facts.

The war seems to be continuing intensely but with very little change in the front line. Russia has made a few small gains in the east but their northern offensive towards Kharkiv didn't get very far, especially after allies agreed that their weaponry could be used against forces sheltering on their own side of the border. Only a fraction of a percent of Ukraine's land area has changed hands since the start of 2023.

If you want a general summary I find Anders Puck Nielsen on YouTube quite useful - he posts on various topics but does a bit of an update every few months. Other YouTubers produce updates where they scan the front line for changes every few days, but with those it's quite hard to see the big picture.

Dr Mike Martin used to do very good updates, however he also became the Lib Dem candidate for Tunbridge Wells so from the start of 2024 was focused on the constituency. It did pay off for him though given he's now the MP, but I don't know if he will resume giving specific Ukraine updates like he used to, as he'll be busy doing constituency work.

 

[najaB]

Other YouTubers produce updates where they scan the front line for changes every few days, but with those it's quite hard to see the big picture.

Yeah, it's difficult at times to see the forest for all the trees.

 

[edwin_m]

William Spaniel is another useful YouTuber for those looking for a bit more perspective.

 

[gg1]

The war seems to be continuing intensely but with very little change in the front line. Russia has made a few small gains in the east but their northern offensive towards Kharkiv didn't get very far, especially after allies agreed that their weaponry could be used against forces sheltering on their own side of the border. Only a fraction of a percent of Ukraine's land area has changed hands since the start of 2023.

I read an article a few months ago where a foreign volunteer with the Ukrainian armed forces described the war as like WW1 but with drones.

 

[Trackman]

I read an article a few months ago where a foreign volunteer with the Ukrainian armed forces described the war as like WW1 but with drones.

The documentary I mentioned up thread, that's how it came across to me.

 

[RailWonderer]

This is a very good source.

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck four Russian S-400 air defense missile launchers, an S-500 air defense system, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet's (BSF) Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class submarine in occupied Crimea on August 2. The Ukrainian General Staff re

www.understandingwar.org

it contains an interactive map and 3D map, and an assessment each month of progress.

• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck four Russian S-400 air defense missile launchers, an S-500 air defense system, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet's (BSF) Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class submarine in occupied Crimea on August 2.
• Ukrainian forces also conducted a series of successful drone strikes against likely military targets in Rostov, Kursk, and Belgorod oblasts on August 3.
• The Kremlin reportedly planned to transfer unspecified missiles and other military equipment to the Houthis in Yemen but did not transfer the materiel following diplomatic pressure. Russia's reported plan highlights its growing military partnership with Iran and suggests that Russia likely aims to leverage Iranian proxies to indirectly confront the West and shape Western decision making.
• Putin's willingness to consider supporting the Houthis as they attack Israel and international shipping is part of deepening Russian-Iranian military cooperation and Russia's increasing reliance on Iran for high-precision weapons and components.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, and Chasiv Yar.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to financially incentivize Russian military service in Ukraine.

 

[Pete_uk]

Getting very hot in Kursk as it seems someone has invaded the Russian town/ area.

 

[najaB]

Getting very hot in Kursk as it seems someone has invaded the Russian town/ area.

Seems it was the Free Russian Army. They invaded near Kursk and have taken a fair number of regular Russian soldiers prisoner.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Aug 2024 ==

Reporting now that actual AFU troops also participated in these attacks on Russian territory:

 

[Cloud Strife]

Reporting now that actual AFU troops also participated in these attacks on Russian territory:

If this is true, then I do wonder what the AFU are playing at. They are in desperate need of infantry elsewhere, although it may be a case that they're using a very limited amount of Ukrainian infantry to disguise what is actually going on.

There are certainly plenty of videos and photos showing captured Russian forces, and it shouldn't be ruled out that the plan is to lure a huge amount of Russian forces into the meat grinder, only to tear them apart with ATACMS. It would destroy Russian morale and cause widespread panic, while potentially forcing Russia to withdraw troops from the Ukrainian-held areas that are under immense pressure right now.

The other thing that isn't clear in the fog of war: is Ukraine now capable of taking down Russian aircraft in the area? Without air superiority, Russia will have no choice in their mind but to flatten villages and towns under Ukrainian occupation.

 

[edwin_m]

I can't see the US giving permission for its weapons to be used in an invasion of Russia, unless they are dealing with an imminent threat of another Russian incursion into Ukraine. There would have to be clear proof of that threat, which would probably have to be made public.

 

[DustyBin]

I can't see the US giving permission for its weapons to be used in an invasion of Russia, unless they are dealing with an imminent threat of another Russian incursion into Ukraine. There would have to be clear proof of that threat, which would probably have to be made public.

I’m inclined to agree; striking military targets within Russia is one thing, “invading” is quite another!

I’ve not seen any suggestion that US/Western supplied weapons are being used though, unless I’ve missed something.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I can't see the US giving permission for its weapons to be used in an invasion of Russia, unless they are dealing with an imminent threat of another Russian incursion into Ukraine. There would have to be clear proof of that threat, which would probably have to be made public.

Now that would be crossing a red line!

 

[Cloud Strife]

Some more information is now becoming clear, specifically that Ukraine launched widespread electric jamming before unleashing a huge drone strike on Russian positions before physically invading. They also appear to have launched a monstrous DDOS attack on the Kursk internet infrastructure to completely sever communications.

It seems that Russia has built up a considerable force on the Russian border of around 75,000, which might be a clue as to why they've done this. There are some reports that Ukrainian advance forces are within 35km of the Kursk NPP, which could mean that Russian defences are wilting, especially combined with the latest reports that Sudzha is surrounded.

It's a huge if and I think rather unlikely, but if the UA forces can somehow reach and take the Kursk NPP, they will put Putin under immense pressure. The nuclear bomb threat has been shown to be nothing more than an empty threat, as this is the first time that Russian/Soviet territory has been invaded since World War 2 and the reaction has been muted.

No idea if it's true or not, but there are comments that Ukraine broke through two lines of Russian fortifications.

 

[najaB]

It's a huge if and I think rather unlikely, but if the UA forces can somehow reach and take the Kursk NPP, they will put Putin under immense pressure. The nuclear bomb threat has been shown to be nothing more than an empty threat, as this is the first time that Russian/Soviet territory has been invaded since World War 2 and the reaction has been muted.

Regardless of if they can or not, this is hugely embarrassing for Putin. As long as they don't overreach themselves and can hold on to what they've gained it puts them in a stronger position come the putative peace talks in September.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Regardless of if they can or not, this is hugely embarrassing for Putin. As long as they don't overreach themselves and can hold on to what they've gained it puts them in a stronger position come the putative peace talks in September.

I agree. Not overreaching is absolutely key imho.

 

[Pete_uk]

I must admit, Ukraine invading Russia was not on my bingo card.

 

[najaB]

I must admit, Ukraine invading Russia was not on my bingo card.

Apparently sticking to the idea of keeping your enemy off-guard by doing what they least expect!

 

[Russel]

Regardless of if they can or not, this is hugely embarrassing for Putin. As long as they don't overreach themselves and can hold on to what they've gained it puts them in a stronger position come the putative peace talks in September.

September peace talks?

 

[najaB]

September peace talks?

The Ukrainian government has proposed a second round of peace talks in September/October before the US election.

 

[Noddy]

I get the feeling this is a very clever, and probably long planned, attack by Ukraine. Ukraine was having to deploy its troops along its entire border with Russia in case of potential attack, while Russia was leaving vast swaths of the border relatively undefended (because Ukraine was being prevented by certain quarters of US) and could focuse on attacking the Donbas and other targets. This forces Russia to actively defend its entire border.

 

[Russel]

The Ukrainian government has proposed a second round of peace talks in September/October before the US election.

Hadn't seen any mention of them, thanks...

I think we can already guess the outcome.

 

[edwin_m]

The Ukrainian government has proposed a second round of peace talks in September/October before the US election.

Hadn't seen any mention of them, thanks...

I think we can already guess the outcome.

Was this before Biden stepped down as candidate? If so I can see some benefit for Ukraine in trying to get a settlement before the election, rather than face the virtual certainty of Trump getting in and most likely cutting off aid and forcing a settlement on Putin's terms.

But now Harris has at least a chance. I don't believe we know her policy position on this (or very much else) but assuming she has enough votes in Congress the most likely outcome is four more years of US support similar to what has happened under Biden. I'd guess therefore that neither party would be interested in talks before the election because each has a realistic prospect of a better negotiating position if their favoured candidate wins.

 

[najaB]

Was this before Biden stepped down as candidate? I can see some benefit for Ukraine in trying to get a settlement before the election, rather than face the virtual certainty of Trump getting in and most likely cutting off aid and forcing a settlement on Putin's terms.

Yes. It was first proposed not long after the summit in Switzerland, so probably mid July.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I must admit, Ukraine invading Russia was not on my bingo card.

Attack is the best form of defense?

 

[DustyBin]

There are videos circulating on social media purporting to show an attack on a Russian column during the night, with huge damage inflicted. The location is Rylsk, so well within Russian territory.

This certainly appears to be very different to previous incursions into Russia, firstly because regular Ukrainian forces are involved, and secondly because they look to be trying to take and hold territory.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Russia has reportedly started their counterattack in Sudzha. The attack mentioned by DustyBin was almost certainly a HIMARS attack, and from the videos, it looks like this was one of the biggest kills in the war so far.

Could it be that the Special Military Operation in Kursk is a diversionary tactic designed to draw Russian forces out and into range of HIMARS and other weapons?

 

[brad465]

Is it possible that F-16s finally arriving helped this attack? Even if they were not used in this incursion they could provide cover elsewhere to allow other weaponry to be used for this operation so far.

 

[DustyBin]

Russia has reportedly started their counterattack in Sudzha. The attack mentioned by DustyBin was almost certainly a HIMARS attack, and from the videos, it looks like this was one of the biggest kills in the war so far.

Could it be that the Special Military Operation in Kursk is a diversionary tactic designed to draw Russian forces out and into range of HIMARS and other weapons?

It did look to me (not that I’m an expert!) like a HIMARS attack but I didn’t want to speculate. The significance of course being that if it was, Western supplied weapons are very much being used!