HS3 Paddington to Newport

[Western Lord]

Given the half finished mess that HS2 has turned into I doubt there will be any meaningful major rail infrastucture projects for a generation.

What could be done to improve journey times on the existing route? Average speeds London - Newport appear to be about 80mph, the ECML manages 100mph with 125mph running, and could 140mph running be a possibilty?

140 mph on the GWML would eat up capacity.

 

[mike57]

Bristol Parkway to Newport slows it down.

I assume thats mainly down to the Severn Tunnel? Also leaving Bristol Parkway. I was just wondering if there were any easy wins, as HS3 sounds like a step too far in the current climate, but average speeds dont seem that impressive considering most of the route is pretty well laid out.

 

[The Planner]

140 mph on the GWML would eat up capacity.

Not really, 140mph saves you 2 minutes between Reading and Swindon. Probably a bit less considering 140 vs 125 is 3 seconds a mile and factoring acceleration and braking. 90 seconds between Swindon and Parkway.

I assume thats mainly down to the Severn Tunnel? Also leaving Bristol Parkway. I was just wondering if there were any easy wins, as HS3 sounds like a step too far in the current climate, but average speeds dont seem that impressive considering most of the route is pretty well laid out.

Yes, you are 60 round to Patchway (including a neutral section), 75 through the drain, 70 through Tunnel Jn, otherwise 90. Then its 75 from Llanwern West. There isn't much you can do to get the average up. Even speeding the tunnel up to 90 gets only gets you 30 seconds.

 

[Irascible]

For improving journeys along the south coast to the South West, I'd be looking at full redoubling + electrification of the WoE line, then a new conventional 100mph line Dorchester - Bridport - Charmouth - Axminster along the coast.

Unfortunately that'd be *worse* than trying to put a line through the New Forest - that's the world heritage site. You'd possibly get away with a line vaguely following the A35, but I bet the BCR is going to be absolutely hideous

So Wales gets it's HSR and the south-west is upgraded to 100mph double track? yes, that does seem a typical plan for the current UK.

 

[AlastairFraser]

Unfortunately that'd be *worse* than trying to put a line through the New Forest - that's the world heritage site. You'd possibly get away with a line vaguely following the A35, but I bet the BCR is going to be absolutely hideous

So Wales gets it's HSR and the south-west is upgraded to 100mph double track? yes, that does seem a typical plan for the current UK.

The whole M4 corridor gets a HSR and SW to the West Mids services too.
My plan was following the A35, I agree that a line actually skirting the Jurassic Coast area would be horrific.

 

[HSTEd]

Unfortunately that'd be *worse* than trying to put a line through the New Forest - that's the world heritage site. You'd possibly get away with a line vaguely following the A35, but I bet the BCR is going to be absolutely hideous

I doubt the BCR on a route along the A35 is going to be much worse than attempting to follow the M4 corridor.
Population density and such will be higher, which might increase costs, but it also means there will be a lot more people around to use the railway after it is built.

The section between Southampton and Bournemouth is 40km that gets you an urban area of comparable scale to Cardiff.

 

[Bald Rick]

Anyone know what state the current M4 bridge is in?

Pretty good. You wont get a high speed railway over it though.

We'll see what the plan has budget for when HS3 is likely to be designed in the 2040s.

No chance. HS2 was being planned almost 20 years ago, and it’s still not built.

 

[AlastairFraser]

No chance. HS2 was being planned almost 20 years ago, and it’s still not built.

Oh I don't expect it to be built in the 2040s, more like the initial planning will probably start happening then.

 

[Bald Rick]

Oh I don't expect it to be built in the 2040s, more like the initial planning will probably start happening then.

That’s very optimistic.

 

[AlastairFraser]

That’s very optimistic.

Hopefully our institutions will get better at planning of nationally significant infrastructure projects, but you do have to be optimistic!

 

[Mgameing123]

By 2040 or even 2030 I expect a national plan on high speed railways. The UK has been lacking behind compared to other countries. HS3 should be on the list after all HS2 phases and NPR.

 

[slowroad]

By 2040 or even 2030 I expect a national plan on high speed railways. The UK has been lacking behind compared to other countries. HS3 should be on the list after all HS2 phases and NPR.

Disagree. For most of UK population density is not appropriate for high speed. And IT has changed the business context. Dutch/Swiss approach more appropriate.

And there is a non-zero chance that in 10 years electric VTOL short haul planes will have changed the game.

 

[Mgameing123]

Disagree. For most of UK population density is not appropriate for high speed. And IT has changed the business context. Dutch/Swiss approach more appropriate.

And there is a non-zero chance that in 10 years electric VTOL short haul planes will have changed the game.

The UK has a very high population density and a lot of cities. These cities need good high speed connections.

 

[Christian Schm]

Well the MF 7:23 from Cardiff skips Reading and saves 3 minutes, and the 16:18 from Paddington skips both Reading and Swindon and saves 6 minutes. There are additional trains to Bristol Parkway. I believe GWR wanted to run these to Cardiff too so that the fast ones could go non-stop from/to Newport.

Note extending the slower ones to Cardiff would give STJ a London service too

 

[py_megapixel]

And there is a non-zero chance that in 10 years electric VTOL short haul planes will have changed the game.

The chance may be non-zero but I'd argue it's very close to zero!

The UK has a very high population density and a lot of cities. These cities need good high speed connections.

Broadly speaking the connections exist in some reasonable form already. New high speed routes have their place where capacity is so severely constrained or journey times are so that a new alignment is warranted. But building a new railway is phenomenally expensive and IMO unwarranted on any route where the inter-city service on the parallel classic route is provided by short DMUs

 

[Mgameing123]

The chance may be non-zero but I'd argue it's very close to zero!


Broadly speaking the connections exist in some reasonable form already. New high speed routes have their place where capacity is so severely constrained or journey times are so that a new alignment is warranted. But building a new railway is phenomenally expensive and IMO unwarranted on any route where the inter-city service on the parallel classic route is provided by short DMUs

I understand that up North they are addicted to short 2 car DMU's doing intercity services *cough cough* Northern but if you look at Transpennine Express they have a severe lack of capacity due to way too short 3 car trains doing intercity services. GWR currently uses 5, 9 or 10 car trains on their intercity services. Trains towards Wales get very busy same as Bristol terminators. HS3 would be able to provide a faster alternative from the classic lines and the following benefits:

- More space for Elizabeth Line, Freight and GWR Semi Fasts between Reading & Paddington.

- Potential to reopen stations beyond Swindon

- Serves some of the biggest cities in the West country

- Reduces journey time

- Provides needed capacity to help shift people away from cars and lorries (The M4).

 

[slowroad]

The chance may be non-zero but I'd argue it's very close to zero!


Broadly speaking the connections exist in some reasonable form already. New high speed routes have their place where capacity is so severely constrained or journey times are so that a new alignment is warranted. But building a new railway is phenomenally expensive and IMO unwarranted on any route where the inter-city service on the parallel classic route is provided by short DMUs

Some evidence for both sides of the case on electric planes here:

This electric plane promises to fly 90 passengers 500 miles on a single charge

Startup Elysian has unveiled plans for a new battery-powered jet concept that it says could carry 90 passengers up to 500 miles on a single charge.

www.businessinsider.com

I wouldn’t bet much against, given the trend improvements in battery performance, with solid state on the cusp. But I wouldn’t bet much in favour either!

 

[HSTEd]

Some evidence for both sides of the case on electric planes here:

This electric plane promises to fly 90 passengers 500 miles on a single charge

Startup Elysian has unveiled plans for a new battery-powered jet concept that it says could carry 90 passengers up to 500 miles on a single charge.

www.businessinsider.com

I wouldn’t bet much against, given the trend improvements in battery performance, with solid state on the cusp. But I wouldn’t bet much in favour either!

People have been claiming solid state batteries are just around the corner for a decade at this point - they still haven't arrived.
Maybe electrical planes will arrive and work, although I doubt it, but if they do - going high speed is the only chance the railway has.

Shinkansen levels of performance is the only way to deliver truly attractive operation in the face of competition with air travel and cars. And the routes will have to be operated at very high frequencies to match the freedom associated with private transport.

 

[slowroad]

People have been claiming solid state batteries are just around the corner for a decade at this point - they still haven't arrived.
Maybe electrical planes will arrive and work, although I doubt it, but if they do - going high speed is the only chance the railway has.

Shinkansen levels of performance is the only way to deliver truly attractive operation in the face of competition with air travel and cars. And the routes will have to be operated at very high frequencies to match the freedom associated with private transport.

Infrastructure costs would be prohibitive, especially in the UK. Look at the fares the budget airlines can charge.

 

[HSTEd]

Infrastructure costs would be prohibitive, especially in the UK. Look at the fares the budget airlines can charge.

Budget airlines currently make heavy use of underutilised airports that have very cheap capacity available - if electric airliners significantly grow the domestic air market then fares will start skyrocketing.

In either case, Shinkansen-type operation can offset infrastructure costs (provided they don't escalate too much) by reduced operating costs, especially through rationalisation of the classic railway. Reduced staffing costs (through more modern equipment, higher productivity and simpler operations), less complex infrastructure etc etc.

 

[Mgameing123]

Infrastructure costs would be prohibitive, especially in the UK. Look at the fares the budget airlines can charge.

Infrastructure does cost a lot. But that’s get paid off with economic growth. More trains on the M4 corridor reduces car usage which will save us a lot of money, increases capacity for the long term. Usually it’s better to build stuff now than later.

 

[43OO4]

Why do we need to make it quicker to get from South Wales to London, than from East Berkshire?

This. We put so much attention on the long distance services with no mind to everything in between. Waterloo to Bristol & beyond via Reading might not necessarily be a bad shout, but let's not forget about literally everybody else who needs trains.

Paddington is probably one of the worst positioned of the London Termini, if you draw a circle that encloses all london termini, Paddington and Marylebone are the two stations that together force the circle to be way larger than it otherwise would be.

With Paddington I make the circle ~3.45km in radius, with Paddington removed it is 3.05km. If you remove Marylebone it falls further to 2.6km.

A lot of those termini all go to the same(ish) places - Victoria, London Bridge, Cannon Street, Charing Cross, Blackfriars? The only reason London is so heavily weighted to the east of the Square Mile is because of how many Southern Region termini there are covering the same area. Southeastern serve all 5 of those termini, Southern 2, Thameslink 2. A bit of an unfair statement to make I reckon!

 

[Mgameing123]

This. We put so much attention on the long distance services with no mind to everything in between. Waterloo to Bristol & beyond via Reading might not necessarily be a bad shout, but let's not forget about literally everybody else who needs trains.

A lot of those termini all go to the same(ish) places - Victoria, London Bridge, Cannon Street, Charing Cross, Blackfriars? The only reason London is so heavily weighted to the east of the Square Mile is because of how many Southern Region termini there are covering the same area. Southeastern serve all 5 of those termini, Southern 2, Thameslink 2. A bit of an unfair statement to make I reckon!

East Berkshire will have faster trains with HS3. HS3 will go to Reading. The goal of HS3 is just to provide additional capacity to catter for Elizabeth Line service expansions because currently the GWML slow line is at capacity.

South Wales should also benefit from faster trains into Central London as it is a region with a high population that is far away from London.

 

[Topological]

HS lines bring higher capacity from further away places.

The result is that nearer places get more space on the existing lines.

In theory you have places which are 45 minutes away on the HS becoming as commutable as the places that are 45 minutes away on the classic lines. The line thus redistributes housing and reduces pressure on places like East Berkshire. (Though I would acknowledge there is a chance of downward price pressure on houses in East Berkshire once Bristol becomes another 45 minute alternative - that will hurt home owners in the area, but would support locals who wish to buy but get priced out because of the present proximity to London).

Connecting the whole UK much better is imperative if we are to be globally competitive. Otherwise, there is little incentive to invest beyond London, perhaps Manchester and at an outside shot Birmingham. Edinburgh/Glasgow is a little different because of how close they are and the fact that Edinburgh is a captial.

 

[JonathanH]

HS lines bring higher capacity from further away places.

The result is that nearer places get more space on the existing lines.

Well yes, but that doesn't reduce the journey time from Wokingham to London down below an hour, because Wokingham remains on an incredibly tedious route to London.

The point is that there are links in many places where the railway service runs at an average speed of less than 40mph, which are destined to never see any improvement, yet someone has the grandiose plan to run 200mph trains over much longer distances.

 

[HSTEd]

Well yes, but that doesn't reduce the journey time from Wokingham to London down below an hour, because Wokingham remains on an incredibly tedious route to London.

The point is that there are links in many places where the railway service runs at an average speed of less than 40mph, which are destined to never see any improvement, yet someone has the grandiose plan to run 200mph trains over much longer distances.

If a high speed line was built in the M4 corridor to Reading, it is very likely that journey times from Wokingham to London would fall below an hour, because the journey time between Reading and London would be of the order of 16 minutes or so.
Doubling back would easily beat the direct route, and the unfortunate reality is that the route via Wokingham can't really get any faster due to the fundamental limitations of its design.

 

[cle]

HS3, such as it is, needs to be a capacity enabler, vs long distance speed solution. high speed is a happy coincidence of a new alignment.

But really only the journey to Plymouth/Cornwall is long, and it's not that busy or lucrative, at 1tph - to invest in.

Bristol was deemed to not need its 4tph super fasts service. Clearly the traffic potential isn't worth the investment either. These are because the current service is pretty good, wires sped it up (Cardiff too especially) and it's not a slow railway. There are others that need it.

What is needed - is capacity. 6 tracks through the form of a tunnel for the fasts to Heathrow and then on like WRATH would do it. Kills the Heathrow Express and frees those paths up. Ups Crossrail frequency as that moves to the fasts until Airport Junction, with rearrangement after. Maybe some faster ones make it to Newbury or Didcot/Oxford even - they would in Japan.

And then more capacity is freed up for services through Reading. Much like what HS2 does for Watford and Milton Keynes.

etc etc.

Similar with the tunnel from Victoria to a compromise place between Bromley South and East Croydon to relieve and increase the South London lines. It's not about speed, it's about another pair which enables more dedicated metro service for London itself, and thus 'promotes' semi fasts to the legacy fast lines.

 

[Irascible]

Pretty good. You wont get a high speed railway over it though.

I was more wondering if it was needing replacement anytime soon - I think the state of the Tamar road bridge is probably making me overly suspicious.

Electric VTOL commercial bus-sized aircraft are 100% smoke & mirrors, for the same reason we don't use helicopters when we don't have to - the energy use to hover is *ridiculous*. For personal use also ridiculous, because the safety issues are just silly. Electric regional aircraft using conventional runways on the other hand is something that is worth following - most complaints about aircraft are noise-related, and while you can't stop propellor or fan noise, that's not what makes most of the noise. Once upon a time we had old WW2 airfields literally everywhere, but as they're all brownfield they're prime housing sites - but building the airfield equivalent of a bus station doesn't take that much space.

A HSR route to the SW and Wales via Southampton is a new route ( well Southampton to London isn't, but it doesn't have to follow the SWML either ). London to Bristol on the conventional line is already quite fast, easing the pressure on that would open opportunities to speed it further or just provides more capacity by doing nothing at all. Building the M4 as HSR does seem quite neat, but only if you build the M5 as well. And, presumably in our moneybags world we've built the next phase of HS2 already.

Building HSR-M5 plus a spur to South Wales might be a better thing to build first to be honest. Wonder what the journey time from Cardiff to London via a triangular junction and back down HS2 would be ( even if you went all the way to Birmingham that's still not much more than 200 miles from Cardiff ). I doubt it'd beat the current time from Exeter, but there's a considerable amount of traffic from the south-west to Birmingham-Manchester. That would probably make Manchester airport quite attractive vs Heathrow for a lot of the west side of the island too, assuming HS2 did actually get built properly ( and there's no way you'd build a line to Wales before building the gap to Manchester ).

 

[Bald Rick]

I was more wondering if it was needing replacement anytime soon - I think the state of the Tamar road bridge is probably making me overly suspicious.

The old bridge has been recently refurbished and had the long standing speed restriction removed - it’s now back to 70.

The new bridge is having work done on it now, but only resurfacing. I‘d be surprised if the new bridge had a design life of less than a century.

Anyway, you can already get a train across the bridge

 

[PTR 444]

Probably in the realm of fantasy, but with HS2 now likely to be under-capacity for decades, would it be worth building a spur from where it crosses EWR at Calvert, running north of Oxford and rejoining the GWML near Swindon?

If such an alignment was built to the same spec as HS2, it would be faster for Bristol and Cardiff services than going via Reading. Would depend on Euston still being built to its original planned size though, unless you can modify OOC so HS2 trains can run from Paddington.