The 2024 US presidential election.

[Dent]

Just endorsing Harris and expecting everyone else to fall behind that decision is too little.

What else should he have done?

 

[nlogax]

What else should he have done?

Given more responsibility to Harris early on, get her on the front foot and being seen as an equal partner in WH activities and global affairs. Help raise her profile to that of an aspiring candidate for this year's election. Ie all the things that we'll see from here on in but starting a year ago.

However, we are where we are. Let's see how this goes. It's still an improvement on Biden planning to stay in the WH.

 

[edwin_m]

The Democrats have pulled a tactical success by leaving this until after the Republican convention, ensuring that all the orchestrated fire of last week was aimed at the wrong target.

The next candidate debate will be crucial. Harris needs to wipe the floor with Trump.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The Democrats have pulled a tactical success by leaving this until after the Republican convention, ensuring that all the orchestrated fire of last week was aimed at the wrong target.

I'd like to think that was a deliberate tactical success/a plan by Biden to deliberately hold the announcement, but I suspect it was pure chance fumbling that Biden didn't make the decision until this weekend. It was certainly very lucky for the Democrats that their convention was scheduled for after the Republican one.

 

[Snow1964]

Is Hillary in with a shout?

Along with Bill Clinton, both backing Harris

Potential other Democrat candidates, Gavin Newsom, Pete Buttigieg, Josh Shapiro, also backing her.

Even some who ran against Biden in 2020 eg Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, are also endorsing Harris.

News stories suggest lots of female and black female groups are also supporting her.

It is rumoured that Trump picked Vance because he was so sure Biden would run, otherwise he would have chosen a female running mate. Opps!

Agree if the multiple news stories about female groups praising Harris are true, then Vance might turn out to be bad choice.

Meanwhile Trump and Republicans have lost their main campaign theme, Biden as old man, their campaign is completely ambushed after riding high this last week.

 

[Smidster]

The Democrats have pulled a tactical success by leaving this until after the Republican convention, ensuring that all the orchestrated fire of last week was aimed at the wrong target.

The next candidate debate will be crucial. Harris needs to wipe the floor with Trump.

Would be quite surprised if that debate happens now...The incentive structure for Trump to do it has just gone 180. If the polls are still showing that he is winning then no reason to stand on a stage with someone who is clearly sane and much more able to take you to task when you start rambling about sharks.

Many of the weaknesses the Democrats have are still in play (perceived weakness on economy / borders) but at least they now have a chance

 

[GRALISTAIR]

So it will all be about Kamala VP pick now. I am actually thinking it might not be Gavin Newshom

 

[Falcon1200]

The optics of overlooking a black female as a sitting VP endorsed by Joe will be absolutely horrible.

Indeed, however arguably Harris should not have been VP in the first place. Notably Barack Obama has not (yet) endorsed Harris....

Republicans being classy about Biden stepping aside as expected.

Trump's response was typically nasty and classless and reveals (again) the true character of the man.

 

[jfollows]

Barack Obama said he wanted the discussion to be about Harris & Biden rather than about him, which will happen as soon as he endorses her, which I expect he will.
From https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...s-out-endorses-kamala-harris-election-updates:

Why hasn't Obama endorsed Harris?​

Obama, who has notably not yet endorsed Harris had two main reasons for holding back, the New York Times reports, citing unnamed people close to the former US president.

The first is that Obama “has positioned himself as an impartial elder statesman above intraparty machinations” and did not want to make “a political mistake — fueling criticism that Ms. Harris’s nomination, should it come, was a coronation rather than the best possible consensus under rushed circumstances”.

He also “wanted Sunday to be about Biden”, the New York Times reports, citing a former White House official who speaks regularly with Obama.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Obama will endorse Harris and he will speak at the DNC.

 

[nlogax]

So it will all be about Kamala VP pick now. I am actually thinking it might not be Gavin Newshom

Mark Kelly looks to be high on that list of choices. Would be a good move..ex astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Mark Kelly looks to be high on that list of choices. Would be a good move..ex astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords.

Agreed. Not a bad choice at all.

 

[nw1]

I see that Trump and Vance are back to usual vicious, poisonous form.

Trump leads Republican taunts of Biden after president drops out of 2024 race

Former president and other Republicans say Biden is ‘not fit to serve’, with some saying he should resign immediately

www.theguardian.com

“Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for president, and is certainly not fit to serve – and never was!” Trump, the Republican nominee, said in a post to Truth Social, repeating his favored insult for the man who beat him in the 2020 election, and rehashing a familiar litany of unsubstantiated grievances.
Joe Biden waves from Air Force One after the US-Russia summit with Vladimir Putin on 16 June 2021.
What happens now to replace Biden as Democratic presidential nominee?
Read more

“He only attained the position of president by lies, fake news, and not leaving his basement. All those around him, including his doctor and the media, knew that he wasn’t capable of being president, and he wasn’t.

“And now look what he’s done to our country, with millions of people coming across our border, totally unchecked and unvetted, many from prisons, mental institutions, and record numbers of terrorists. We will suffer greatly because of his presidency, but we will remedy the damage he has done very quickly.”

and

JD Vance, Trump’s newly installed running mate, called Biden “the worst president of my lifetime” in a tweet, and attempted to link Vice-President Kamala Harris to his “scam policies”.

“Kamala Harris has been right there with him every step of the way. She owns all of these failures, and she lied for nearly four years about Biden’s mental capacity – saddling the nation with a president who can’t do the job,” he said.

“President Trump and I are ready to save America, whoever’s at the top of the Democrat ticket. Bring it on.”

Precisely why this pair of jerks are absolutely not fit to win.

I hope that decent middle-of-the-road Americans will wise up to what a low-life Trump is and how JD the Joker is a Liz Truss-style lightweight who just blows with the wind.

 

[dangie]

If there wasn’t enough television coverage saying Biden should step down, there’s even more television coverage now that he is. Yes I know, I can always switch it off.

 

[DarloRich]

A sad but unavoidable conclusion for Biden. Do the Democrats go to an open convention?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

A sad but unavoidable conclusion for Biden. Do the Democrats go to an open convention?

Doubt it. There will be a coronation of Kamala

 

[birchesgreen]

I think they'll want some sort of contest, or the appearance of one anyway, but with Harris winning.

 

[DarloRich]

Doubt it. There will be a coronation of Kamala

I suspect that, as @birchesgreen suggests, there will be the appearance of a fight with Harris winning.

 

[AlterEgo]

Doubt it. There will be a coronation of Kamala

Almost certainly.

A solid VP pick may make her a more attractive prospect. She's seen as a "cop" owing to her history as a prosecutor, so a softer and more "woke" VP may make the overall ticket more appealing. She's also childless, something which doesn't get talked about very often. Pete Buttigieg - a married, gay man with children - would be a good choice. I have suspected Obama has been witholding some of his political capital by not immediately endorsing Harris, in order to have a stronger say in the VP pick.

Really not convinced still that Harris will win the election, but hey.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I think they'll want some sort of contest, or the appearance of one anyway, but with Harris winning.

I suspect that, as @birchesgreen suggests, there will be the appearance of a fight with Harris winning.

Thinking more about it, you could well be right. Otherwise all the talk about “democracy “ starts to ring hollow.

 

[DarloRich]

Thinking more about it, you could well be right. Otherwise all the talk about “democracy “ starts to ring hollow.

exactly - a winner is a better story than a coronation. Harris said something like "I will seek and win the nomination" rather than expecting to be the nominee

Obviously I don't think the democrats want an early 20th century 3 week long, all out argument, 17 voting round convention!

 

[Cowley]

I did hear on one of the political podcasts I listen to that something like 89% of African American women vote democrat. For that reason alone it’s going to be very difficult to replace Harris. I think it has to be her with a decent swing state, probably white male candidate as her VP.

Then she needs to get properly visible and find a way of getting under Trump’s skin so that his recent more calm persona starts to slip and he shows himself as what he really is a bit more. The biggest problem for the Trump led Republicans, is Trump.

 

[AlterEgo]

Vance is now the weak link. He was almost certainly chosen to showcase youth and virility and relevance among Rust Belt Americans, and chosen to contrast with Biden's decrepitude. Now Biden is gone, he seems a weaker pick.

Trump is a political chameleon with good instincts. He is also running a professional and tidy campaign. He is a strong candidate, and my feeling now is that the VP pick is very important, especially if it comes to light Trump picked Vance on the shallow basis I outlined above.

 

[jfollows]

Trump is saying that Harris will be easier to beat than Biden, but that’s just tactics and part of the revised campaign, he’s wrong and her candidacy removes a major leg of his campaign against Biden and age will be turned against Trump instead. But anything’s better than having to watch two too-old menu slugging it out.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 22 Jul 2024 ==

I also wonder how this affects the “hispanic vote”; if there’s such a thing then in Florida there is a lot of Republican support (because of Cuba) whereas over the rest of the country it’s more mixed and generally made from younger voters than on average. Will Harris appeal more to them than Biden? I’d think she would.

PS My husband is Mexican, but US citizen with a vote in North Carolina; his family lives in California (Ventura) and Arizona (Tucson) and is pretty much solid Democrat. North Carolina only because he & I lived there before he moved to the UK and them’s the rules for overseas voters.

 

[edwin_m]

There has to be some sort of process to select the VP candidate. That could be framed as a nominal contest to select both, but with the Presidential role not really in play and the debate really being about who gets to stand as VP.

 

[JamesT]

Trump is saying that Harris will be easier to beat than Biden, but that’s just tactics and part of the revised campaign, he’s wrong and her candidacy removes a major leg of his campaign against Biden and age will be turned against Trump instead. But anything’s better than having to watch two too-old menu slugging it out.

My impression from when Harris tried to get the nomination last time was that she was a poor debater and easily attacked for being indecisive on policy. Perhaps with Biden's election machine behind her she might do better.

There has to be some sort of process to select the VP candidate. That could be framed as a nominal contest to select both, but with the Presidential role not really in play and the debate really being about who gets to stand as VP.

The presidential nominee gets to pick their running mate, that's it.
Having the party trying to choose the VP candidate separately leads to the madness of the Labour Party where the deputy is sidelined by a leader who didn't choose them.

 

[edwin_m]

The presidential nominee gets to pick their running mate, that's it.
Having the party trying to choose the VP candidate separately leads to the madness of the Labour Party where the deputy is sidelined by a leader who didn't choose them.

Normally the VP candidate is chosen from the strong contenders in the primaries, sometimes aiming to buy off a competitor but also to get the best possible electoral appeal between the two of them. (There may also be some consideration of whether the VP would themselves be a good President...).

This doesn't really apply here, since the primaries were essentially a one-horse race and that horse has now withdrawn. Having some sort of process to put the candidates in front of the public would go some way to address that, give the appearance that a contest has actually taken place, and give the chosen canddate for President more insight on who to choose as a running mate.

 

[JamesT]

Normally the VP candidate is chosen from the strong contenders in the primaries, sometimes aiming to buy off a competitor but also to get the best possible electoral appeal between the two of them. (There may also be some consideration of whether the VP would themselves be a good President...).

This doesn't really apply here, since the primaries were essentially a one-horse race and that horse has now withdrawn. Having some sort of process to put the candidates in front of the public would go some way to address that, give the appearance that a contest has actually taken place, and give the chosen candidate for President more insight on who to choose as a running mate.

I don't believe that's the case. Harris dropped out before the first primary, Pence didn't stand for the Republican nomination in 2016, neither did Paul Ryan in 2012. Biden himself dropped out after the first primary in 2008 having only got 4%.
The VP choice is someone the presidential nominee thinks they can work with and will appeal to demographics they don't.

If there's going to be a contest, then it's going to have to be one for the presidential nomination at the convention. Though how fair can a contest be when the majority of the electors were pledged to a candidate no longer running?

 

[DarloRich]

Vance is now the weak link.

his views on abortion will be challenged firmly by Harris!

 

[AlterEgo]

his views on abortion will be challenged firmly by Harris!

Not just abortion. He’s an entry level misogynist anyway.