Russia invades Ukraine

[najaB]

Not even close, the appeasement of Nazi Germany was far worse. And an argument could also be made for the way much of the Treaty of Versailles was written. Also throw in this country's reluctance to make reasonable arrangements for the decolonising of the Middle East.

Abandoning the Mujahidin after the Soviets left Afghanistan is up there too.

 

[joieman]

Not even close, the appeasement of Nazi Germany was far worse. And an argument could also be made for the way much of the Treaty of Versailles was written. Also throw in this country's reluctance to make reasonable arrangements for the decolonising of the Middle East.

Whoops, I meant to write 21st century. My bad.

That would also suggest that Ukraine will fail to regain control of its other southern oblasts since Crimea's water supply issues mean it is somewhat economically dependent on remaining under the same government as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. As for Crimean ethnicity the Russian population only became significant as a result of Stalin's decision to Russify the place during WW2 with the long-standing native population of Tatars being forcibly replaced by Russians in 1941. While the dependents of those reluctantly migrated Russians may be well established there any historic claim on Crimea is no stronger than that of other groups.

But ethnically cleansing the Crimean peninsula of Russians would look just as bad, so I don't think much can be done about the demographics otherwise.

 

[edwin_m]

Whoops, I meant to write 21st century. My bad.

But ethnically cleansing the Crimean peninsula of Russians would look just as bad, so I don't think much can be done about the demographics otherwise.

It was probably too late to establish good relations with Russia in the 21st century by which time Putin was in power, though Germany in particular was trying to. It didn't stop Putin's aggression in Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine and elsewhere.

There were plenty of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine (including Zelensky) and Crimea. Were they actually persecuted or was that just propaganda by Russia and its proxies? Either way I can't imagine many would want to be part of Russia, if a genuine referendum could be held now.

Note also that all regions of Ukraine voted for independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 - https://www.ukrweekly.com/old/archive/1991/499101.shtml

Cherkasy	96.03​
Chernihiv	93.74​
Chernivtsi	92.78​
Crimean ASSR	54.19​
Dnipropetrovske	90.86​
Donetske	76.85​
Ivano-Frankivske	95.81​
Kharkiv	75.83​
Kherson	90.13​
Khmelnytsky	96.30​
Kiev	95.52​
Kirovohrad	93.88​
Luhanske	83.86​
Lviv	97.46​
Mykolayiv	89.45​
Odessa	85.38​
Poltava	94.93​
Rivne	95.96​
Sumy	92.61​
Ternopil	98.67​
Vinnytsia	95.43​
Volyn	96.32​
Zakarpattia	92.59​
Zaporizhzhia	80.74​
Zhytomyr	95.06​
Kiev City	92.87​
Sevastopil City	57.07​

 

[joieman]

There were plenty of Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine (including Zelensky) and Crimea.

Oh, yeah, I'd forgotten Ukrainian wasn't Zelenskyy's first language!
And, rather conspicuously, Crimea and Sevastopol were the least in favour of independence. Whereas in all the other regions upwards of 75% voted to join Ukraine, only 54% and 57% in these respective regions voted in favour of joining Ukraine, which in any case is a much less secure figure than the eighties and even nineties of other regions.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Oh, yeah, I'd forgotten Ukrainian wasn't Zelenskyy's first language!
And, rather conspicuously, Crimea and Sevastopol were the least in favour of independence. Whereas in all the other regions upwards of 75% voted to join Ukraine, only 54% and 57% in these respective regions voted in favour of joining Ukraine, which in any case is a much less secure figure than the eighties and even nineties of other regions.

All fair comment. OTOH since the Russian invasion many Russian speaking Ukrainians have (apparently) vowed never to speak that language again. As such should Crimea be restored to Ukrainian rule it's easy to think that prejudicial behaviour by citizens alone would persuade many Russian transplants to return to the Motherland. And if the Russian Navy was forced out of Sevastopol then that would add considerably to such an exodus.

 

[najaB]

And if the Russian Navy was forced out of Sevastopol then that would add considerably to such an exodus.

I can't see Ukraine agreeing to a lease agreement now.

 

[joieman]

And if the Russian Navy was forced out of Sevastopol then that would add considerably to such an exodus.

That would probably be one of the worst things that could happen to the Russian navy. Being blessed with the largest landmass in the world, unfortunately for them, the Russians haven't also been blessed with warm-water ports. The Black Sea is their only coastline that doesn't freeze over in winter. Tim Marshall's book Prisoners of Geography is an excellent read about Russian geopolitics and the geopolitics of the wider world.

 

[najaB]

The Black Sea is their only coastline that doesn't freeze over in winter.

Does the Baltic freeze over? Kaliningrad may become the next Sevastopol.

 

[joieman]

Does the Baltic freeze over? Kaliningrad may become the next Sevastopol.

Kaliningrad has the great disadvantage of being entirely cut off from contiguous Russia by Lithuania, which is a NATO member, meaning that at any time Lithuania on the whims of NATO could stop the Russians passing through there to get from Kaliningrad to the rest of Russia. And St. Petersburg to the north does freeze over, meaning that Kaliningrad would be isolated from the rest of Russia by sea as well.

 

[DustyBin]

It was probably too late to establish good relations with Russia in the 21st century by which time Putin was in power, though Germany in particular was trying to. It didn't stop Putin's aggression in Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine and elsewhere.

Historically I’ve certainly been willing to ask the question, i.e. has the West really done all it could to establish good relations with Putin’s Russia. I’m now convinced however that we were wise to be wary, as Putin was most likely never an honest actor, even putting aside the obvious examples of military aggression you’ve cited above.

Had Russia been allowed to join the EU for example, I strongly suspect Putin would have undermined and fractured it from within, with weakening NATO being his ultimate aim. We’d have more than Orban to worry about had this been allowed to happen, and Putin would most likely be in a stronger position geopolitically than he is now, assuming he was always going to invade Ukraine (which again I’m now convinced he was).

It’s an interesting discussion, but I don’t think the West needs to beat itself up over what it could have done differently in this regard; if anything a firmer approach is what was needed.

 

[edwin_m]

That would probably be one of the worst things that could happen to the Russian navy. Being blessed with the largest landmass in the world, unfortunately for them, the Russians haven't also been blessed with warm-water ports. The Black Sea is their only coastline that doesn't freeze over in winter. Tim Marshall's book Prisoners of Geography is an excellent read about Russian geopolitics and the geopolitics of the wider world.

They have other ports on their Black Sea coast within internationally-recognised Russian territory, such as Novorossiysk. In fact they seem to have mostly moved the navy out of Sevastopol after numerous Ukrainian attacks.

 

[najaB]

meaning that at any time Lithuania on the whims of NATO could stop the Russians passing through there to get from Kaliningrad to the rest of Russia.

I'm pretty sure doing so would be treated by Russia as an act of war...

Historically I’ve certainly been willing to ask the question, i.e. has the West really done all it could to establish good relations with Putin’s Russia.

That's the real question: could we have done more to help make it the Russian people's Russia rather than Putin's?

 

[DustyBin]

That's the real question: could we have done more to help make it the Russian people's Russia rather than Putin's?

Has it ever been the Russian people’s Russia?

I think there was an opportunity in the immediate aftermath following the collapse of the USSR, but Russian internal politics put paid to it unfortunately.

 

[najaB]

Has it ever been the Russian people’s Russia?

For brief periods in 1917/18 and 1992/3, I guess.

 

[DustyBin]

For brief periods in 1917/18 and 1992/3, I guess.

I think you’re right, and therein lies (a large part of) the problem!

 

[Belperpete]

All fair comment. OTOH since the Russian invasion many Russian speaking Ukrainians have (apparently) vowed never to speak that language again. As such should Crimea be restored to Ukrainian rule it's easy to think that prejudicial behaviour by citizens alone would persuade many Russian transplants to return to the Motherland.

It was that kind of discriminatory behaviour against ethnic Russians that Putin used as one of his pretexts for the invasion.

 

[najaB]

It was that kind of discriminatory behaviour against ethnic Russians that Putin used as one of his pretexts for the invasion.

The difference being that Putin's claim was that Kyiv had official policies in place to repress Russian and Russians, whereas if the Russians were to cede Crimea it would be neighbours turning on neighbours irrespective of any official policies.

 

[Belperpete]

Had Russia been allowed to join the EU for example, I strongly suspect Putin would have undermined and fractured it from within, with weakening NATO being his ultimate aim.

I couldn't see the ex-Soviet bloc countries such as Latvia, Estonia, Czechia, etc ever allowing Russia being allowed to join the EU. Having just escaped Russian tyranny, no way would they accept Russia lording it over them in the EU.

 

[joieman]

I'm pretty sure doing so would be treated by Russia as an act of war...

Since 2022, EU sanctions have already resulted in about half of railfreight between Kaliningrad and Russia being blocked.

 

[najaB]

Since 2022, EU sanctions have already resulted in about half of railfreight between Kaliningrad and Russia being blocked.

And Russia has raised a stink to the high heavens about those restrictions which actually managed to get the EU to ease them somewhat.

 

[DustyBin]

I couldn't see the ex-Soviet bloc countries such as Latvia, Estonia, Czechia, etc ever allowing Russia being allowed to join the EU. Having just escaped Russian tyranny, no way would they accept Russia lording it over them in the EU.

I agree, however had it suited the major EU powers they’d have had little say in the matter.

 

[najaB]

I agree, however had it suited the major EU powers they’d have had little say in the matter.

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that all current member states have to ratify the accession treaty.

In an interesting development - Belarus has said that they're withdrawing their extra troops from the border area with Ukraine. I'm sure that Putin is super-happy about this since it potentially frees up some Ukrainian forces, at least temporarily.

 

[brad465]

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that all current member states have to ratify the accession treaty.

In an interesting development - Belarus has said that they're withdrawing their extra troops from the border area with Ukraine. I'm sure that Putin is super-happy about this since it potentially frees up some Ukrainian forces, at least temporarily.

While I'm sure Ukraine station some troops along that border, I'd be very surprised if large swathes of it were not heavily mined and fortified.

 

[najaB]

While I'm sure Ukraine station some troops along that border, I'd be very surprised if large swathes of it were not heavily mined and fortified.

No doubt, but even if it's mined and fortified, they would still likely have responded to Minsk's troop build-up with one of their own, given that there's always the chance that the Belarussians might be used as Russian proxy troops.

 

[DustyBin]

I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure that all current member states have to ratify the accession treaty.

No you’re quite right they do, however “politics” and all that….

In an interesting development - Belarus has said that they're withdrawing their extra troops from the border area with Ukraine. I'm sure that Putin is super-happy about this since it potentially frees up some Ukrainian forces, at least temporarily.

That is interesting, although I don’t believe Lukashenko has ever been a willing participant (in so far as Belarus has participated).

 

[edwin_m]

No doubt, but even if it's mined and fortified, they would still likely have responded to Minsk's troop build-up with one of their own, given that there's always the chance that the Belarussians might be used as Russian proxy troops.

Or actual Russian troops might move into Belarus as they did for the original invasion in 2022. Mines and fortifications are only any use if there are enough defenders present to impede the efforts of an invader to get through those defences.

 

[RailWonderer]

No you’re quite right they do, however “politics” and all that….



That is interesting, although I don’t believe Lukashenko has ever been a willing participant (in so far as Belarus has participated).

Lukashenko doesn't have much bargaining power because his country has for years survived on Russian loans as business in Belarus is mostly state owned and stagnant and needs to be propped up. Their only viable alternative is to join the EU and ally with the West but that would be against Lukashenko's genuine beliefs as pro Russian and Communist even well into the 1990s (and would mean his fall from power).

 

[Cloud Strife]

In an interesting development - Belarus has said that they're withdrawing their extra troops from the border area with Ukraine. I'm sure that Putin is super-happy about this since it potentially frees up some Ukrainian forces, at least temporarily.

The Belarusian Army (and their national doctrine) is anti-war, and I suspect that Lukashenko has been rather unhappy about those troops being deployed there. His whole personality has been based around stability for Belarus and not getting involved in wars, which is where his support came from among older voters.

But yes, the border is heavily mined and fortified. Getting through the Polesie forest is going to be very difficult for any attacker anyway.

 

[edwin_m]

Lukashenko doesn't have much bargaining power because his country has for years survived on Russian loans as business in Belarus is mostly state owned and stagnant and needs to be propped up. Their only viable alternative is to join the EU and ally with the West but that would be against Lukashenko's genuine beliefs as pro Russian and Communist even well into the 1990s (and would mean his fall from power).

As with Ukraine, allying with the west would be a long process, starting as you say with Lukashenko being replaced by a democratically elected regime. With Putin having tentacles across the country, anything like that would be snuffed out before it was able to build up any momentum.

 

[DustyBin]

Lukashenko doesn't have much bargaining power because his country has for years survived on Russian loans as business in Belarus is mostly state owned and stagnant and needs to be propped up. Their only viable alternative is to join the EU and ally with the West but that would be against Lukashenko's genuine beliefs as pro Russian and Communist even well into the 1990s (and would mean his fall from power).

I agree, and I think it’s out of his hands at this point. Lukashenko has somehow managed to survive by walking the Russia/EU tightrope, until finally throwing his lot in with Putin out of desperation when the Belarusian people decided they’d had enough. That was surely the end in terms of playing both sides; he’s well and truly in Putin’s pocket now and entirely dependant on him for his own survival.