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Marsh Barton Railway Station Exeter - Construction and opening.

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RPI

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Will be a big bonus when those stations open and Cardiff is linked to Cornwall on an hourly basis.
I'm not sure if that is the plan, I was under the impression that the alternate service would be the 2 hourly Paddington to Exeter stoppers, again, not confirmed and would need the 2 hourly intervals of one of the services to flip to the "other" hour
 
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REVUpminster

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That’s the way I look at it too. Get the infrastructure in place first and take the hit with low loadings initially. Exactly what happened in the Docklands with the DLR running through wasteland initially.
It only applied to the Canary Wharf section where Olympia and York invested millions in Canary Wharf. The Royal Docks were 20 years complete failure despite some housing and retail park in Beckton.

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I'm not sure if that is the plan, I was under the impression that the alternate service would be the 2 hourly Paddington to Exeter stoppers, again, not confirmed and would need the 2 hourly intervals of one of the services to flip to the "other" hour
I think the idea is to stop The Cardiff Penzance and extend the Cardiff Taunton to Exeter to give a minimum hourly service. If the proposed Axminster train ever start they could be extended to Taunton as the capacity would be there to reverse them.
 

Dan G

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No, the passenger numbers were forecasted for each station since Edginswell itself was expected to have 350,000 annually in the report.
The stations were in the same report as they were intended to be a pair, replacing road journeys on the A380/A379 corridor.
 

dk1

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I'm not sure if that is the plan, I was under the impression that the alternate service would be the 2 hourly Paddington to Exeter stoppers, again, not confirmed and would need the 2 hourly intervals of one of the services to flip to the "other" hour

Oh that’s not how I understood it but time will tell.

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It only applied to the Canary Wharf section where Olympia and York invested millions in Canary Wharf. The Royal Docks were 20 years complete failure despite some housing and retail park in Beckton.

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Remember going to Beckton wondering why they bothered with some of the stations as so baron. Soon changed and the money poured in to the area.
 
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REVUpminster

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Oh that’s not how I understood it but time will tell.

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Remember going to Beckton wondering why they bothered with some of the stations as so baron. Soon changed and the money poured in to the area.
But not for twenty years.
 

Xavi

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I think the idea is to stop The Cardiff Penzance and extend the Cardiff Taunton to Exeter to give a minimum hourly service.
There are no plans to stop Cardiff / Penzance - a great success since the number of daily trains was increased. The Taunton terminators will extend to Exeter to give Wellington (and later Cullompton) an hourly service.
 

RPI

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There are no plans to stop Cardiff / Penzance - a great success since the number of daily trains was increased. The Taunton terminators will extend to Exeter to give Wellington (and later Cullompton) an hourly service.
The Taunton terminators are roughly two hourly, the opposite to the Cardiff-Penzance, which together make an hourly service between Taunton and Cardiff, are you suggesting then that Cullompton and Wellington will get a 2 hourly service?
 

The exile

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The Taunton terminators are roughly two hourly, the opposite to the Cardiff-Penzance, which together make an hourly service between Taunton and Cardiff, are you suggesting then that Cullompton and Wellington will get a 2 hourly service?
Wasn’t the suggestion that the Berks and Hants “stoppers” would stop?
 

REVUpminster

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The whole point of moving Cardiff-Taunton trains to Exeter is to free up platforms 2 and 3 at Taunton so trains can be reversed from a future "Devon Metro" service.

I imagine this will be one of the future uses of platform 2 at Exeter St David's every 2 hours as well reversing GWRs from Paddington. Platform 2 is ideal as everybody really wants to go to Central.
 

Meerkat

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Where is the space for housing around Marsh Barton?
I thought it was for incoming traffic to get workers to the employment around it?
 

ollyexe2808

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embers25

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The issue is that the business case was a lie. All the economics are based on 360k passengers in first year, not 90k. I agree building stations before the housing is the way to go, BUT your business case must take that into account and not claim 4 times as many passengers as 360k was never gonna happen 'on opening''.
 

The exile

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The issue is that the business case was a lie. All the economics are based on 360k passengers in first year, not 90k. I agree building stations before the housing is the way to go, BUT your business case must take that into account and not claim 4 times as many passengers as 360k was never gonna happen 'on opening''.
Do you have proof that it was a deliberate falsehood, not an error at the time, or a forecast that has been overtaken by events? If so - please present it!
 

embers25

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How do you overforecast by 400% and not be embarrassed. 350k at edginswell is insane too. When the building of this station started it was 100% clear that 360k was pie in the sky and so the building should have stopped pending am update business case with realistic forecasts. Also claiming it as a success when it is operating at 25% of forecast usage is very misleading and another lie.
 

The exile

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How do you overforecast by 400% and not be embarrassed. 350k at edginswell is insane too. When the building of this station started it was 100% clear that 360k was pie in the sky and so the building should have stopped pending am update business case with realistic forecasts. Also claiming it as a success when it is operating at 25% of forecast usage is very misleading and another lie.
That’s a different thing from a lie, though.
 

Benjwri

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It's probably worth noting here that 360,000 wasn't the forecast, and is just a number that has been pulled from one of the usual extremely speculative crayon reports councils like to create for if they ever find a money tree.

The actual forecasting done for the station is available here. (Using the revenue forecasts to save everyone getting the calculator out):
As can be seen forecast passenger numbers were 160,000 in the first year, which was for the assumed opening date of 2016. Given what has happened since with Covid, the drop in forecast passengers lines up relatively well with what has been seen across the country, especially given Marsh Barton's forecast traffic was largely reliant on people commuting to work, before new developments open, which they still haven't, and Marsh Barton has been hit very heavily by closures of businesses, especially after Covid.
 

embers25

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Given building started after covid and, at that point, working from home was even higher, there was even more reason to revisit the forecasts prior to building. Also 160k in 2016 assuming linear growth (as TUBA would) would be 327k expected in 2024 so not far off the 360k. 160k in 2016 was pie in the sky too anyway.
Patronage is returning to at circa 80% of pre covid levels now in Devon, not 50-60% and you'd expect a new station usage boost in year one not this. It's no Okehampton.

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That’s a different thing from a lie, though.
Deliberately misleading the public with inflated, unrealistic forecasts at all stages to obtain funding is basically a lie. Obviously much has happened since the business case was written but it wasn't true to start with.
 

Benjwri

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Patronage is returning to at circa 80% of pre covid levels now in Devon, not 50-60%
In most of Devon yes, but a lot of that has to do with tourism. Marsh Barton is located on an industrial estate which has been particularly hard hit by closures, and very few will want to visit. That combined with few nearby houses means the the recovery would be expected to be significantly lower than other areas of Devon.
 

WesternBiker

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It's probably worth noting here that 360,000 wasn't the forecast, and is just a number that has been pulled from one of the usual extremely speculative crayon reports councils like to create for if they ever find a money tree.

The actual forecasting done for the station is available here. (Using the revenue forecasts to save everyone getting the calculator out):

As can be seen forecast passenger numbers were 160,000 in the first year, which was for the assumed opening date of 2016. Given what has happened since with Covid, the drop in forecast passengers lines up relatively well with what has been seen across the country, especially given Marsh Barton's forecast traffic was largely reliant on people commuting to work, before new developments open, which they still haven't, and Marsh Barton has been hit very heavily by closures of businesses, especially after Covid.
Thanks. Anything based on developers’ forecasts has to be taken with a generous pinch of salt. In my last job, we were always being implored by developers to provide community infrastructure based on their proposals, which were, without exception, wildly optimistic in terms of timings.
 

Benjwri

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Thanks. Anything based on developers’ forecasts has to be taken with a generous pinch of salt. In my last job, we were always being implored by developers to provide community infrastructure based on their proposals, which were, without exception, wildly optimistic in terms of timings.
Yes I mean I think from just looking at the CBR of something like 5 we can see that they were being quite optimistic.
 

embers25

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In most of Devon yes, but a lot of that has to do with tourism. Marsh Barton is located on an industrial estate which has been particularly hard hit by closures, and very few will want to visit. That combined with few nearby houses means the the recovery would be expected to be significantly lower than other areas of Devon.
I agree and business travel is recovering far slower here in Devon but that, and your other points, are all reasons supporting my argument that building the station should not have gone ahead without a full reassessment of benefits given these issues.
I am helping Marsh Barton usage figures, despite never actually using it , because it has a very useful fare quirk locally and I wonder how many others know this and so the awful usage figures actually are even worse than declared.
 

Xavi

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Patronage is returning to at circa 80% of pre covid levels now in Devon
Traffic in Devon has been ahead of pre-Covid for some time. Best example is Exeter Central which was above 2018/19 in 2022/23.
 

ollyexe2808

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Traffic in Devon has been ahead of pre-Covid for some time. Best example is Exeter Central which was above 2018/19 in 2022/23.
And anecdotally that feels like the case. Traffic has changed from commuter to shopper but also changing shift patterns mean more travellers mid week. Morning services from Exmouth to Exeter Central are often full by the time it reaches Digby.
 

embers25

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St Davids remains below. I chose one of the lowest so I couldn't be accused of inflating usage, unlike this business case.
 
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