Is she in the Reform Party?
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UK General Election 2024: The Results & Aftermath
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If the tories end up with a centre leader, chances are people like Suella will join Reform, blister their profile for the next election, Reform get in and change the system to FPTP, and in 2034, we'll have parliament full of Britain First type of characters
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No she doesn't like Farage or what he stands for, she's more radical than he is. A lot of people aren't happy with him, because he isn't extreme enough for their views.
birchesgreen
Established Member
Reform have peaked, in terms of votes they got the same as UKIP at their peak (though had a bit more success in translating that into seats). About 6 million people want to vote for such politics, quite a lot of people sure but only a small proportion of the electorate.
I suspect Farage and Reform will find the mass media less accommodating from now on after what they helped do to the Tory vote, plus now Farage and co, have to actually do some work and attend constituency surguries and tackle visa issues, tree conservation orders and anti-social behaviour outside Tesco. I'm sure Farage won't prefer to head off to the US to help out his best bud Trump, oh no.
Won't surprise me if Truss does something to help the US Republican campaign either, as I think her policies aren't that too different to republican ones
DarloRich
Veteran Member
First by election from this parliament:
Sunak, Diane Abott one, of the MP's for Gaza or a Reform person?
Sunak, Diane Abott one, of the MP's for Gaza or a Reform person?
What do you mean change the system to FPTP? That is our voting system now.
To be honest, given how visible social media makes people’s views, nobody can really say they’re surprised at the character of who gets in. If someone who expresses such views decides to stand and gets elected, surely that’s the prerogative of the electorate to elect who they want? We’re not Iran where candidates are vetted that their views are suitably orthodox before they can stand.
But as other commentators have said, I fail to see the relevance of a random poster with no apparent party affiliation on X to a discussion of the results of the general election.
Kite159
Veteran Member
How on earn can someone cast .8 of a vote?
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As for Serena Brown, what on earth has she got to do with the election?
pokemonsuper9
Established Member
Because 33.7% is rounded, and not the true figure.
However I did a simple 9,704,655 / 0.337 to get the total votes.
They was similar characters to her who was standing for Reform? If the media hadn't picked up on it, do you think Reform would have still supported them I think they would off. Surely the rise of the far right, is something to worry about? We've seen it in the USA, with Trump, the far right and the Jan 6 attack, Le Pen in France, Meloni in Italy.
Truss apparently asked voters to judge her on her record in government - and they did just that, by throwing her out. What you could call a Ratner moment.
(For the benefit of younger members, in 1991 Gerald Ratner, owner of the Ratners jewellery chain, managed to destroy his business single-handedly after stating at an industry gathering he made money by selling "total crap". The public took him at his word; sales fell off a cliff virtually overnight and within 18 months some £500m had been wiped from the value of the company.)
(For the benefit of younger members, in 1991 Gerald Ratner, owner of the Ratners jewellery chain, managed to destroy his business single-handedly after stating at an industry gathering he made money by selling "total crap". The public took him at his word; sales fell off a cliff virtually overnight and within 18 months some £500m had been wiped from the value of the company.)
From source:-Electoral-Reform.org.uk/ (my totals appended)
Party | Votes % | Votes | MPs | MPs % | Votes per Seat |
Labour | 33.7 | 9,706,125 | 411 | 63.2 | 23615 |
Conservative | 23.7 | 6,827,112 | 121 | 18.6 | 56422 |
Liberal Democrat | 12.2 | 3,519,163 | 72 | 11.1 | 48877 |
Scottish National Party | 2.5 | 724,758 | 9 | 1.4 | 80528 |
Sinn Féin | 0.7 | 210,891 | 7 | 1.1 | 30127 |
Reform UK | 14.3 | 4,106,661 | 5 | 0.8 | 821332 |
Democratic Unionist Party | 0.6 | 172,058 | 5 | 0.8 | 34411 |
Green Party | 6.7 | 1,943,258 | 4 | 0.6 | 485814 |
Plaid Cymru | 0.7 | 194,811 | 4 | 0.6 | 48702 |
Social Democratic and Labour Party | 0.3 | 86,861 | 2 | 0.3 | 43430 |
Alliance | 0.4 | 117,191 | 1 | 0.2 | 117191 |
Ulster Unionist Party | 0.3 | 94,779 | 1 | 0.2 | 94779 |
Traditional Unionist Voice | 0.2 | 48,685 | 1 | 0.2 | 48685 |
The Speaker | 0.1 | 25,238 | 1 | 0.2 | 25238 |
Workers Party of Britain | 0.7 | 210,194 | 0 | 0 | N/A |
Others | 2.8 | 805,112 | 6 | 0.9 | 134185 |
| | | | | |
| 100 | 28,792,897 | 650 | | |
Edit: not sure why the discrepancy between BBC and ERS over number of Labour votes.
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I have just looked at the results around my area against my post on the now locked Election 2024: Predict your local seats thread.
The surprise to me was the Liberal Democrats taking Stratford-upon-Avon with a majority of of over 7000 despite Nadhim Zahawi standing down. While boundary changes it has been Conservative since 1906. A 'bloody nose' to the current Conservatives.
Labour gained North Warwickshire and Bedworth with a majority of over 2000 while the Conservatives held Kenilworth and Southam with a majority of over 6500. The labour majority for Warwick and Leamington increased to almost 12500 against under 1000.
Edit:
While Friday I saw Rugby was a Labour gain from Conservative only now have I looked at the numbers
2019 Conservative over 29000 / 57.6%, Labour under 16000 / 31.1%
2024 Labour 19500 / 39.9%, Conservative 15000 / 30.8%, Reform over 8000 / 16.8%
The turnout dropped 5% to 65%.
The Conservatives lost almost 50% of their voters.
The surprise to me was the Liberal Democrats taking Stratford-upon-Avon with a majority of of over 7000 despite Nadhim Zahawi standing down. While boundary changes it has been Conservative since 1906. A 'bloody nose' to the current Conservatives.
Labour gained North Warwickshire and Bedworth with a majority of over 2000 while the Conservatives held Kenilworth and Southam with a majority of over 6500. The labour majority for Warwick and Leamington increased to almost 12500 against under 1000.
Edit:
While Friday I saw Rugby was a Labour gain from Conservative only now have I looked at the numbers
2019 Conservative over 29000 / 57.6%, Labour under 16000 / 31.1%
2024 Labour 19500 / 39.9%, Conservative 15000 / 30.8%, Reform over 8000 / 16.8%
The turnout dropped 5% to 65%.
The Conservatives lost almost 50% of their voters.
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Sunak said he was staying for “years” as the MP for Richmond.
birchesgreen
Established Member
Yes plus they have to set up a constituency office without the help of a national party and (like Reform) get down to the non-glamorous nitty gritty of being an MP. Obviously Corbyn will be fine though the others may struggle.
Whats more interesting with Reform are these "phantom candidates", who don't seem to have any online presence (or any background) at all.
Those expecting a by-election from a newly elected MP finding it 'too hard' should bear the example of Jared O'Mara in mind. You can carry on for quite some time doing essentially naff all and there's nothing to force you to stop being an MP. Forcing a recall by-election requires some active wrong-doing. As I recall there's also an incentive to not resign but instead lose an election as you get a better pension etc. that way.
Purple Train
Established Member
I was sure I made predictions on the old thread, but it seems I forgot to send them! I was accurate with most of them for my local area, with both Slough and Windsor being incumbent holds (Labour and Conservative respectively) with reduced majorities, although I wasn't anticipating quite such a reduction in Labour's majority in Slough (14,000 to 3,500, which I suppose is a reasonably good result for Labour compared to the likes of Leicester South and Ilford North). The one with which I was inaccurate was Maidenhead, which I predicted to be a Conservative hold and was instead taken by the Lib Dems with a 3,000 majority.
Picking up from what I said:
Basingstoke and Aldershot went to Labour.
North East Hampshire (which was a bit of shock given what the previous GE result was and how long is been represented by a Tory - although it's passed through various seats to do so) has gone Lib Dems, as has Surrey Heath.
Diane Abbott will only step down if she’s too ill to continue, I think this will be her last term though
I think the independent candidates will likely step down or not make the full term if anything dodgy is found about them or if they do something that forces a by election.
87electric
Established Member
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Tony Blair now urging Starmer to usher in the digital ID cards, according to the Evening Standard. Doesn't give up does he?
www.standard.co.uk
Blair urges Starmer to introduce ID cards and ‘avoid vulnerability on wokeism’
Little more than 24 hours after the Prime Minister entered Downing Street, Sir Keir’s predecessor has publicly offered advice for his time in office.
www.standard.co.uk
Blair is just opening the Overton Window. Much of the Late-Blair period was spoiled by war and the creation of enormous swathes of legislation for petty offences. But on ID cards he has it right. One of the largest obstacles to good governance in this country is that we haven’t a clue how many people are actually here. Some estimates suggest we have as many as 5-10 million more people here than the census suggests. ID cards would flush that issue out and make interacting with the state vastly easier.Tony Blair now urging Starmer to usher in the digital ID cards, according to the Evening Standard. Doesn't give up does he?
Blair urges Starmer to introduce ID cards and ‘avoid vulnerability on wokeism’
Little more than 24 hours after the Prime Minister entered Downing Street, Sir Keir’s predecessor has publicly offered advice for his time in office.
Spamcan81
Established Member
The new Hitchin constituency is part Herts, part Beds.
DynamicSpirit
Established Member
I think a dose of realism is in order here. From your posts, you seem to be making up all sorts of implausible, unlikely, scenarios and then scaring yourself by imagining they'll come true. They won't.
By the way, Reform UK want proportional representation, which would arguably be a good thing since it would stop single parties gaining near-absolute power on < 50% of the vote.
It's pretty unlikely that they have. Ten people on the electoral roll from the constituency must sign nomination papers for candidates to be MP, which election officials verify. Forging the signatures or making up a candidate if detected would become a large news story with such impact on support it's not worth risking. Several constituencies didn't have Reform candidates, at a guess due to things like issues with proposed candidate, nomination forms or not being able to submit new forms if needed to be redone for new candidates or to correct mistakes.On some social media there's been some discussions about how there's the potential for Reform to have "made up" candidates.
For example Helen Burns for Glasgow North:
x.com
x.com
Glasgow North the Reform candidate lived in England so imagine they didn't go to Glasgow much if at all. Often "paper candidates" would prefer a lower profile for a whole host of reasons; whether not a good public speaker for hustings, don't want the abuse that sadly so many candidates get these days, a picture would show clearly 80+ and unlikely to do the job or even aren't that interested in politics but are the partner/family member of someone who is and agreed to be a paper candidate for them. In some ways an active paper candidate isn't helpful, at best they are campaigning somewhere other than most useful and at worst they make national news from doing something controversial or stupid.
brad465
Veteran Member
I doubt many of them will know who she is. She's also a dire public speaker, so I imagine she will be counterproductive to them, despite having more time on her hands now to do something like that.
Funnily enough on another Forum I use there is a By-election bingo game, where users pick 65 MPs (10% of MPs) and score points for each one that departs mid-parliament. Different circumstances of departure have different scores (death while in seat is the highest reliable score, basic resignation the lowest, criminal resignations a median score, while the highest possible score comes from an MP whose resignation collapses a government (but very rare)).
This sort of "scrounging" is long overdue reform. What sort of reform I don't know for sure, but it could be based on registering a minimum attendance in parliament within a set time frame, where failure to do so leads to immediate dismissal as an MP and by-election, or at least a recall petition being triggered. How constituency work gets measured would be a tricky area, other than measuring surgery work.
I agree with such a policy, however given it wasn't in the manifesto (hence Labour dismissing Blair's calls on the issue), I expect they would have to wait till the next election and put it in that manifesto, or else face a major backlash (beyond the backlash such a policy has already caused, such as when Blair tried to introduce them as PM) and obstruction of legislation in the Lords (they're not obliged by convention to pass non-manifesto legislation).
Total votes cast for Labour in 2024 election, 9.7 million, total votes cast in 2019 for "unelectable" Labour under Jeremy Corbyn 10.25 million .
Our FPTP system is strange strange strange!
Casting an eye in the direction of France, the electorate embracing the charms of the near/far-right, tactical manoevering see-sawed the electorate to the radical left, the French Govt is quite paralysed.
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