UK General Election 2024: The Results & Aftermath

[Kaliwax]

I've seen enough general elections to know that the day after the election, or possibly up to the weekend following, is the only time that politicians are at all candid about their defeat and performance in government (if they lost), or the prospects for the future (if they won).
Once a new cabinet is formed, and the whips have got organised, it all descends into being "on message".
As Private Willis says in Iolanthe (1882):
"When in that House MPs divide, if they've a brain and cerebellum, too,
They've got to leave that brain outside, and vote just as their leaders tell 'em to."

The main difference back then is that you were either a Liberal or Conservative - there was no Labour.

Back in 1882, most people wasn't eligible or allowed to vote either. Only about 60 percent of men over the age of 21 could vote.

 

[DarloRich]

First job for the new PM: Briefing on the nuclear deterrent!

Congratulations PM. Welcome to Downing Street. How many people do you want to kill! Could you sign those letters please ?What's that? Those are the instructions to the Submarine commander on what he should do if you are and most of the country are dead!

I imagine that could be quite sobering!

 

[brad465]

I wonder if much like 2019, Hunt will want a few years as a backbencher with maybe a hand in select committees.

I can see him chairing one if he's selected.

 

[Thirteen]

I can see him chairing one if he's selected.

That or Deputy Speaker since there are vacancy although they might go for a like for like replacement with another female Conservative MP.

 

[SuspectUsual]

With only a 1.7% increase of the vote based on the 2019 election, it would be safe to say that the Labour popularity has not increased significantly to warrant the landslide, rather that the Conservative vote has been decimated and spread out between others, not necessarily to Labour (as Yardley showed as an example) - there is plenty of work for Labour to do

My (obviously simplistic) view is that of the four main parties there are two left of centre (Labour and the Lib Dems) and two right of centre (Conservatives and Reform).

The left of centre vote has been split for decades; the right of centre vote traditionally hasn't been, so what we see now is the Tories put in a similar position to that which Labour have been in for generations.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

As much as I am very happy to see labour win. This highlights the issue with FPTTP, The country is ruled by a party who do not have a majority of the people voting for them.

Its the most distorted result since everyone was given the vote but nothing will be changed and be surprised if Starmer even acknowledges it. The one thing he does need to deliver on though is Lords reform.

 

[Trackman]

The SNP losing badly in the election does make me wonder if they're doomed in the Scottish Parliament elections. Could see Labour gaining power there.

Pollsters have it as a hung parliament at the moment for 2026, so yes they could gain power.

 

[Busaholic]

Labour held Cambridge with 47% of the votes. The Liberal Democrats (20%) retained second place with the Greens not far behind (16%). The Conservatives held North East Cambridgeshire with 42% of the vote, Reform (23%) coming second ahead of Labour (20%).

The Liberal Democrats won emphatically in South Cambridgeshire with 47% of the vote, the Conservatives (21%) way behind in second place. On the other hand the Labour majority over the Conservatives in Peterborough was just 118 (both 33%), then Reform (13%) and Workers (12%).

The Liberal Democrats won comfortably in St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, with 37%, Conservatives (28%) were second. The Liberal Democrats (33%) also won in Ely and East Cambridgeshire, but with a majority of only 495 over the Conservatives (32%).

Labour took North West Cambridgeshire with a majority of just 39 ahead of the Conservatives (both 33%). Reform were third (20%). The Conservatives did hold Huntingdon (35%) with Labour second (32%) and Reform (15%) third.

After decades of being very boring politically, Cambridgeshire now has 3 very marginal constituencies.

Harmar Nicholls won Peterborough for the Tories in 1966 by 3 votes after seven recounts! Don't remember a closer result in the 60 odd years I've followed politics.

 

[Purple Train]

Harmar Nicholls won Peterborough for the Tories in 1966 by 3 votes after seven recounts! Don't remember a closer result in the 60 odd years I've followed politics.

I don't think there's been a closer result than that (ignoring Winchester in 1997, which was later declared void) since 1910.

 

[Busaholic]

Two split votes seem to have given unlikely Conservative wins in Leicester East and Chingford and Woodford Green.

Actually, the Chingford one was predicted by me as I could see the Labour vote was going to be split significantly between the official and unofficial candidates. It was a Starmer own goal. IDS for new leader of the Tories?

 

[JonathanH]

This highlights the issue with FPTTP, The country is ruled by a party who do not have a majority of the people voting for them.

While that may be true, FPTTP has allowed the removal of Liz Truss, the ability to elect Jeremy Corbyn on a local mandate, and allowed the Liberal Democrats to take over much of the home counties.

I don't agree one bit, his relatively small majority today represents a low point under unusual circumstances and will be replaced with a healthy "business as usual" majority in future elections.

On the contrary, the fact that the majority is small means that the opposition know how to channel the vote to unseat him next time round. It would be quite embarrassing to have the leader voted out at a general election. It will be interesting to see the list of Conservative seats listed by majority as I don't think there are many with anything substantial.

The point is, however, is that Reform have claimed they can do all of these things, but have not given any idea as to how they would actually be funded except for vague waves. In future elections they will really have to explain how they're going to do it, since they will be seen as a threat by the other parties - if they can't, they're limited to just being a protest vote.

I suspect that the relevant part of population has no care of how Reform's policies are funded so long as they are populist. I was listening to the radio this morning when a caller was asked which of Reform's policies they liked best, and basically replied that their policies speak to the things people want. Farage's pitch tends to be that the other parties are part of some 'establishment' that needs to be broken down.

 

[Purple Train]

On the contrary, the fact that the majority is small means that the opposition know how to channel the vote to unseat him next time round. It would be quite embarrassing to have the leader voted out at a general election. It will be interesting to see the list of Conservative seats listed by majority as I don't think there are many with anything substantial.

I don't think there are many seats full stop with anything substantial.

 

[Busaholic]

Who would be the best person to become the new Tory Leader, would it be someone who's quite moderate and James Cleverly or Tom Tugendhat, who I think are more of the one nation tories? Or would it be someone like Suella Braverman? If Suella or someone on the right would be the leader of the Tories, what would be the difference between them and Reform?

Now that Farage has got his size 11s under the desk in Parliament, he'll be looking for potential Tory turncoats to join his mob and Braverman would be no. 1 target imo. She's stupid enough to fall for his entreaties, too.

 

[Trackman]

Obviously no shocks in Lewisham east, Labour with 58.8% share of the vote. The only interesting thing is the Green party came second and Reform beat the Lib Dems.

I don't think there's been a closer result than that (ignoring Winchester in 1997, which was later declared void) since 1910.

The watermark scandal lol.

 

[Thirteen]

Pollsters have it as a hung parliament at the moment for 2026, so yes they could gain power.

it'll either be that or a Coalition of sorts.

 

[Gloster]

I suspect that the Conservative leadership battle will end up being between the right and the hard-right of the party; the centre-right will lose out quickly. I reckon that Braverman, Badenoch, etc. will remain in the Conservatives as long as they think that they will be the next or next-but-one leader: only if they blow their chances completely might they defect and then only if they think that Reform will continue to have a presence in the Commons.

 

[Kaliwax]

Priti Patel could be another one to throw their name into the hat to become the next tory leader.

 

[Yew]

I agree.
Reform took 15% of the votes cast, that’s a significant number, it destroyed the Conservatives, but I see it as their high point, which will decline gradually. However, with its four seats, it won’t go away, and continue to be part of the political calculus.

It depends, I imagine some of their vote was an anti-Conservative protest vote, there is a core of deindustrialised areas that voted reform, that have seen real decay in their towns in the last 40 years. If action is not taken to reverse that, the the simplistic "your town is worse and there are no good jobs because of immigrants" narrative will take a lot of work to dissuade.

 

[brad465]

It depends, I imagine some of their vote was an anti-Conservative protest vote, there is a core of deindustrialised areas that voted reform, that have seen real decay in their towns in the last 40 years. If action is not taken to reverse that, the the simplistic "your town is worse and there are no good jobs because of immigrants" narrative will take a lot of work to dissuade.

Basically if Reform are a problem for Labour then Labour should put a strong focus on east coast revival; 3 of of the 4 Reform wins so far are North Sea coastal towns, while many of their 2nd place standings stretch more or less the whole length of the English east coast. Some of that would be trying to bring industry back, but the coastal towns like Clacton and Great Yarmouth probably need a rebrand and/or a tourism focus.

 

[Kite159]

The best thing for the Tories with the new leader is someone who had no part in the last government. A back bencher with no baggage from the Johnson/Truss/Sunak era.

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Tories join Nigel's lot, especially if they don't like the new leader.

 

[AlterEgo]

There's history, antagonism and egos to contend with, but one lesson from the election (which the government lost - it wasn't a huge endorsement of Labour - is that in a couple of years, the right wing parties of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK

The Liberal Democrats are a mild left-centrist party which occupied a position to the left of Labour in this campaign.

 

[Kaliwax]

Nice to see Bolsover go back to Labour again, hopefully she is just as good as the previous Labour MP in that constituency. Although Dennis Skinner, was the last old school Labour MP imo.

 

[JamesT]

The Liberal Democrats are a mild left-centrist party which occupied a position to the left of Labour in this campaign.

Which is an interesting position given their leader wrote a chapter of the Orange Book, so is definitely on the free-market personal responsibility end of the party.

 

[takno]

Which is an interesting position given their leader wrote a chapter of the Orange Book, so is definitely on the free-market personal responsibility end of the party.

The Orange book is, what, 20 years ago now, and some of the chapters are perhaps more significant than others. Life has come at Ed Davey pretty hard since then, and some of his younger opinions may have been revised.

 

[Trackman]

Priti Patel could be another one to throw their name into the hat to become the next tory leader.

I'd like to see Priti Patel stand.
Kemi Badenoch is bookies favourite at the moment.
Think Priti's is 4th fav.

 

[Kaliwax]

The Orange book is, what, 20 years ago now, and some of the chapters are perhaps more significant than others. Life has come at Ed Davey pretty hard since then, and some of his younger opinions may have been revised.

I think Ed being a carer for his son, has moved him further to the left politically, seeing the distress the benefit system can cause people.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Jeremy Hunt's wife works for the Chinese Communist Party. It would be dangerous to continue to allow Hunt to assume senior positions.

Care to back that up with a corroborating link?

 

[hexagon789]

Harmar Nicholls won Peterborough for the Tories in 1966 by 3 votes after seven recounts! Don't remember a closer result in the 60 odd years I've followed politics.

I don't think there's been a closer result than that (ignoring Winchester in 1997, which was later declared void) since 1910.

North East Fife, 2017. Majority of 2.

 

[adc82140]

I'm rather glad Farage, Tice and Anderson have got in for reform. It's their put up or shut up moment, and I suspect they will quickly find out that it'll be the latter. Let them make fools of themselves.

 

[Busaholic]

I think Ed being a carer for his son, has moved him further to the left politically, seeing the distress the benefit system can cause people.

His wife has MS too. I don't know which variety, as it can make a tremendous difference to how it impacts you, but in official parlance it is one of three medical conditions which the government accepts means you're recognised as disabled from the moment you get a written diagnosis of it. Translating that recognition into action in the form of cash or other benefits/mitigations is another matter, as I know all too well!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jul 2024 ==

North East Fife, 2017. Majority of 2.

That one had escaped my notice. Thanks.