General Election 2024: Who Are You Voting For?

[DarloRich]

I wouldn’t vote Labour if you paid me - as someone who works full time, owns a house and doesn’t have kids, I gained nothing from them last time.

Yes you did. There's none as blind as those who refuse to see.

 

[GusB]

Anyway, I’ll be voting LD, mostly because of their policies on Europe, Education and HS2 reinstatement, partly because the other parties have yet to do any campaigning or canvassing in my constituency (as far as I can tell) - so I don’t know what they stand for locally - and partly because I’m on first name / drinking terms with the LD candidate

Thankfully we don't have to vote purely by the amount of canvassing and propaganda received. Otherwise I'd be voting bloody Tory!

 

[Bald Rick]

Thankfully we don't have to vote purely by the amount of canvassing and propaganda received. Otherwise I'd be voting bloody Tory!

If St Albans voted on the amount of canvassing and propganda received, the Lib Dems would get 100% of the vote. Although I will vote that way (in spite of the incessant letterbox flapping - 3 times today!), I would like the other parties‘ candidates to at least try, and I’d enjoy a doorstep debate with them on a few matters. But they don’t want to bother.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

- and partly because I’m on first name / drinking terms with the LD candidate

I would do the same!

 

[cb a1]

Thankfully we don't have to vote purely by the amount of canvassing and propaganda received. Otherwise I'd be voting bloody Tory!

Same here.
Very helpful leaflet though showing it's a 2 horse race between SNP and Conservative. Having moved to the area since the last GE, I didn't appreciate how tight it was last time round.
I would like to put my X against neither of them, but as it's FPTP, that's now a vote for SNP.

 

[Thornaby 37]

All I can say for certain is who I will NOT be voting for. I have long been an ABC voter: Anyone But Conservative.

Same here, always have despised the Tories

Normally Labour would be my first choice at a General Election, however my vote for Labour this time is purely tactical (not impressed at the way Starmer has been running the Labour Party)

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Same here.
Very helpful leaflet though showing it's a 2 horse race between SNP and Conservative. Having moved to the area since the last GE, I didn't appreciate how tight it was last time round.
I would like to put my X against neither of them, but as it's FPTP, that's now a vote for SNP.

It's probably worth asking... was that leaflet from one of the political parties or from an independent organisation? If it was from a political party, then I'd take its claims with a pinch of salt because telling people that 'we are the only ones who can beat X here' is a very common tactic to get votes.

This wikipedia page contains estimates of what the 2019 results in each constituency are likely to have been on the current boundaries, which you can use to make a possibly less biased judgement on which parties stand a chance of winning in your area, although you'll also need take into account (a) what the opinion polls are showing about how support for the parties has changed since then, and (b) who is actually campaigning in your area. For example, if the SNP and the Tories are the only ones actually campaigning in your seat, then it's a fair guess that the leaflet is correct. If other parties are also campaigning there, then that may mean they believe they have a chance too (especially the LibDems, who seem to be very laser focused on only campaigning in their target seats).

 

[sor]

Lib Dem. In short, Labour's policy on the EU is less than uninspiring (not that I'm under any pretence that it'd be quick to repair our relationship, but Labour seem to have just copied and pasted Tory "Global Britain" ideology with a bit of windowdressing for specific sectors). I'm also a firm believer in electoral reform.

Not that I'll be disappointed when Labour get in, as I was when I saw the 2019 exit poll results...

 

[PGAT]

Looking at the polls there’s a decent shot of Lib Dems becoming the official opposition

 

[Spamcan81]

I’ve voted Tory in every GE up until 2015 but I cannot vote for them in their current form. Due to boundary changes I’m in a whole new constituency so no past results to go on as to who is most likely to beat the Tories. Current polling would indicate Labour so unless things change, that’s where my vote is going.

 

[Magdalia]

Very helpful leaflet though showing it's a 2 horse race between

It's probably worth asking... was that leaflet from one of the political parties or from an independent organisation?

It is definitely worth asking.

This week Radio 4's More or Less had an item on election leaflets, concentrating on the "only we can win here" claims and the statistics used to back them up.

It is repeated this afternoon at 1630 and also available on BBC sounds.

This time is particularly complicated where there are major boundary changes, watch out for charts based on data for constituencies that have changed significantly since last time, but not adjusted to reflect those changes.

Various polling companies and tactical voting websites have had a go at adjusting for boundary changes, but different methodologies can lead to quite different results.

 

[cb a1]

It's probably worth asking... was that leaflet from one of the political parties or from an independent organisation?

It was from the Conservatives.
It prompted me to look at the last results online.
On your and Magdalia's prompt, I have looked at the 2019 results for both constituencies that contribute to the new constituency.
Both quite similar with over 85% of votes going to the SNP and Conservatives, so the claim does look reasonable.

 

[X-City-WM]

I’ve voted Tory in every GE up until 2015 but I cannot vote for them in their current form. Due to boundary changes I’m in a whole new constituency so no past results to go on as to who is most likely to beat the Tories. Current polling would indicate Labour so unless things change, that’s where my vote is going.

It's worth having a look on Electoral Calculus (and other polling sites), to see what they think the local vote share could be like in your constituency: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

 

[richw]

Working out how to dethrone the Tory incumbent, it will take one hell of a overthrow

The last election was 60% Tory, 20% labour, 16% LD. with the rest the local eccentrics putting their name on the ballot.

 

[52290]

I wouldn’t vote Labour if you paid me - as someone who works full time, owns a house and doesn’t have kids, I gained nothing from them last time. They gave me more tax and tuition fees - great!
The Tories, to be fair, helped me into the housing ladder with ‘help to buy’, but that’s where it ends. They have failed to deliver anything remotely conservative.
I vote Lib Dem in the locals as it’s the best way to keep Labour out. However, I wouldn’t vote for them nationally.
I’ll happily vote Reform. Unfortunately it won’t affect the outcome around here as Labour could slap a red rosette on a dead dog and the sheep would still vote for it. That said, the dead dog may be more palatable than the current occupant of the Hull East seat.

I wouldn't vote Tory if you paid me. Well I might depending on how much you paid me.

 

[jfollows]

In 2019 58% Con, 22% Lab, 16% LibDem here - likewise prediction of Labour by a small amount so I’m holding my nose and voting for them rather than LibDem. Not that I’d vote Tory either, simply that LibDem are closer to my inclinations than Labour currently.

 

[nw1]

Working out how to dethrone the Tory incumbent, it will take one hell of a overthrow

The last election was 60% Tory, 20% labour, 16% LD. with the rest the local eccentrics putting their name on the ballot.

If that's Liskeard, it's staggering how Tory Cornwall has become compared to the 90s and 00s when it was a strong area for the Lib Dems.

 

[Spamcan81]

It's worth having a look on Electoral Calculus (and other polling sites), to see what they think the local vote share could be like in your constituency: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

I have and it looks like the seat will be a Labour majority.

 

[richw]

If that's Liskeard, it's staggering how Tory Cornwall has become compared to the 90s and 00s when it was, if I remember right, a strong area of the Lib Dems.

Yes Cornwall was always a LibDem strong hold.
Theres a lot of elderly and veryr rich people in the area who would vote for anything in a blue dress, with more and more moving this way.

Liskeard on its own without the rest of SE Cornwall I beleive would probably be a labour safe seat.

 

[Norm_D_Ploom]

For the 1st time in 20 odd years I will probably be voting Labour, ( not because I want to they are terrible and in 5 years time we'll all look back fondly on this conservative government due to the mess Starmer will leave)

However, it's the only way to guarantee that George Galloway and his mob of terrorist sympathisers don't get in.

 

[Busaholic]

If that's Liskeard, it's staggering how Tory Cornwall has become compared to the 90s and 00s when it was a strong area for the Lib Dems.

I'm afraid it was Brexit, the years leading to it and the lies fed to the fishing industry and, to a certain extent, the farmers, which they gullibly swallowed, which changed everything. In my 36 years in the St Ives constituency, the first 9 saw a Tory MP, the next 18 a LibDem, and the last 9 a Tory again. The previous LibDem MP, now a Cornwall councillor, is expected to win again quite comfortably. The support for Reform is now less than in other Cornish seats and the fishing port of Newlyn, home to Britain's second busiest fishing port, has been represented by a LibDem councillor for the last three years!

 

[nw1]

For the 1st time in 20 odd years I will probably be voting Labour, ( not because I want to they are terrible and in 5 years time we'll all look back fondly on this conservative government due to the mess Starmer will leave)

However, it's the only way to guarantee that George Galloway and his mob of terrorist sympathisers don't get in.

Galloway is not going to "get in", as in get into government: not in a million years.

I also doubt Starmer will leave a bigger mess than the Tories. He might struggle to do much in the way of positive actions initially, but that's mostly due to the mess the country is in currently.

 

[Norm_D_Ploom]

Galloway is not going to "get in", as in get into government: not in a million years.

I also doubt Starmer will leave a bigger mess than the Tories. He might struggle to do much in the way of positive actions initially, but that's mostly due to the mess the country is in currently.

Correcct, but his mob might in my area though, hence voting intention.

Re the 2nd point it's a debate that we will only be able to revisit in 5 years.

 

[Senex]

If St Albans voted on the amount of canvassingand propganda received, the Lib Dems would get 100% of the vote. Although I will vote that way (in spite of the incessant letterbox flapping - 3 times today!), I would likethe other parties‘ candidates to at least try, and I’d enjoy a doorstepdebate withthem on a few matters. But they dont want to bother.

Well, at least you've got one party apparently trying. Here (York) half way through the campaign there have been leaflets delivered by the postman from Labour and LibDem but nothing delivered by canvassers and no-one doing any door-stepping. maybe they're all just assuming the seat will go to Rachel Maskell again and it's not worthwhile for anyone else to bother at all seriously.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

With the polls about to open, 191 people have voted in this thread. After excluding the don't knows and non-mainland UK parties, the railforums vote is currently:

Labour 50%
LibDem 26%
Reform 12%
Conservatives 5%
Greens 5%
SNP 2%

(Didn't include Plaid Cymru because they have no railforums votes. Probably not enough people living in Wales)

This won't be much like the actual result as shown from the comparable results from 2019, but is interesting to see how the parties have changed on railforums.

2019 railforums poll (link):

Labour 31% (Actual result in the general election was 32%)
LibDems 31% (Actual 12%)
Conservatives 20% (Actual 44%)
SNP 7% (Actual 4%)
Greens 3% (Actual 3%)
Brexit Party 5% (Actual 2%)

 

[Busaholic]

Having voted LibDem at every election since 1992, for the same person (natch!), I voted for the Liberal Party candidate today in the knowledge that the LibDems won't need my vote this time, and I like the Liberal's cut of his jib, so an extra vote for him will probably be appreciated.

 

[richw]

Having voted LibDem at every election since 1992, for the same person (natch!), I voted for the Liberal Party candidate today in the knowledge that the LibDems won't need my vote this time, and I like the Liberal's cut of his jib, so an extra vote for him will probably be appreciated.

Is Andrew George expected to get back in after a few years hiatus then?