Rail Strikes & General Election: what might happen ?

[Efini92]

There has been talk/rumours of 5% 4% & 4% for 2022 2023 & 2024 respectively. No idea where this has come from as nobody I’ve spoken to will divulge their source. Time will tell.

I think it’s someone’s wish list. Those figures were banded about days after aslef acknowledged they were to start talking to RDG.
I’ll wait until an offer is put to us before I believe anything.

 

[baz962]

There has been talk/rumours of 5% 4% & 4% for 2022 2023 & 2024 respectively. No idea where this has come from as nobody I’ve spoken to will divulge their source. Time will tell.

Same rumour at our place

 

[317 forever]

I think your significantly over estimating how far in advance this decision was made. The furthest in advance I've heard is that Sunak met with his core advisors last week to pick a date. It seems clear that, even if a decision was made last week, the final call was made potentially as late as yesterday morning.

For instance David Cameron was supposed to be on a visit in Albania yesterday afternoon. Instead he landed in Tirana and got straight back on the plane to come home. If the decision had been made and communicated so far down the chain this the RDG knew they needed to stall there's no way Cameron gets in the flight.

I also think it may well overestimate how much importance the Government put on the railways...

In particular, the soon to be ex MP Mark Harper will be too interested in fighting to retain his seat to take time out to intervene in negotiations to avert rail strikes.

 

[dk1]

I think it’s someone’s wish list. Those figures were banded about days after aslef acknowledged they were to start talking to RDG.
I’ll wait until an offer is put to us before I believe anything.

Same here.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 May 2024 ==

Same rumour at our place

Doesn’t take long.

 

[Sly Old Fox]

In particular, the soon to be ex MP Mark Harper will be too interested in fighting to retain his seat to take time out to intervene in negotiations to avert rail strikes.

Soon to be could be a stretch, he has a big majority. Ex-minister probably more likely.

 

[Bald Rick]

In particular, the soon to be ex MP Mark Harper will be too interested in fighting to retain his seat to take time out to intervene in negotiations to avert rail strikes.

He’s not allowed to - Government business is effectively finished now until after the election (mid July at the earliest.)

 

[dk1]

With the pay talks now officially stalled and no movement this side of the election, I wonder if ASLEF will follow the Junior Doctors and announce action in the run up to the election?

 

[Thirteen]

With the pay talks now officially stalled and no movement this side of the election, I wonder if ASLEF will follow the Junior Doctors and announce action in the run up to the election?

Glastonbury weekend would be the best option.

 

[dk1]

Glastonbury weekend would be the best option.

No doubt that’s already been noted.

 

[irish_rail]

Glastonbury weekend would be the best option.

Why hit largely left leaning groups, many of whom are on the side of drivers? Wrong target.

 

[Bald Rick]

With the pay talks now officially stalled and no movement this side of the election, I wonder if ASLEF will follow the Junior Doctors and announce action in the run up to the election?

What would a strike between now and the election actually achieve?

Normally, strikes are invoked as a last resort to persuade an employer to change their approach.

But in this case employers can’t change their approach until after the election, as there is essentially no Governement to ‘sign off’ any deal. I am reasonably sure that resolving the dispute will be at the top of the incoming Secretary of State’s in tray, and a new strike isn’t going to change that, or make it happen any quicker.

As far as I can see, all it would do is disrupt passengers, cost members money and cost the industry lost revenue. It would barely make the news either given what that the news is in full on election mode.

So I really don’t see the point. But perhaps I‘m missing something.

 

[dk1]

What would a strike between now and the election actually achieve?

Normally, strikes are invoked as a last resort to persuade an employer to change their approach.

But in this case employers can’t change their approach until after the election, as there is essentially no Governement to ‘sign off’ any deal. I am reasonably sure that resolving the dispute will be at the top of the incoming Secretary of State’s in tray, and a new strike isn’t going to change that, or make it happen any quicker.

As far as I can see, all it would do is disrupt passengers, cost members money and cost the industry lost revenue. It would barely make the news either given what that the news is in full on election mode.

So I really don’t see the point. But perhaps I‘m missing something.

I must be psyhcic. I imagined someone might say that unsurprisingly. You could say the same for those Junior Doctors but that’s the reality of it all. It’s just what I’m expecting that’s all.

 

[RexMundi]

With the pay talks now officially stalled and no movement this side of the election, I wonder if ASLEF will follow the Junior Doctors and announce action in the run up to the election?

Where have you heard this?

Edit, no worries, someone has just showed me a text that aslef have sent out

 

[dk1]

Where have you heard this?

Edit, no worries, someone has just showed me a text that aslef have sent out

Haha, yes. It was all to good to be true & just sums up the last few years.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 May 2024 ==

I’m still fully convinced we’ll have a positive outcome…

…eventually.

 

[Bald Rick]

I must be psyhcic. I imagined someone might say that unsurprisingly. You could say the same for those Junior Doctors but that’s the reality of it all. It’s just what I’m expecting that’s all.

I agree, you could say the same for the Junior Doctors.

 

[RexMundi]

Haha, yes. It was all to good to be true & just sums up the last few years.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 May 2024 ==

I’m still fully convinced we’ll have a positive outcome…

…eventually.

Oh well, I look forward to the back pay

 

[dk1]

Oh well, I look forward to the back pay

It will be very welcome for most. Just got to hang on in there a little bit longer.

 

[Thirteen]

The Junior Doctors striking seems kind of pointless considering there is no one to go to the table until after the election.

 

[The Ham]

The Junior Doctors striking seems kind of pointless considering there is no one to go to the table until after the election.

I can understand the junior doctors a bit more than train strikes.

There is at least the logic that older people are likely to vote Tory and are also more likely to use NHS services, so a quick reminder of what they have let themselves in for if they vote Tory.

 

[Chatt3nden]

Are there any rumours or updates because as I am a train passenger I would like to know the likelihood of a strike in the next month or so because of planning annual leave?

 

[dk1]

Are there any rumours or updates because as I am a train passenger I would like to know the likelihood of a strike in the next month or so because of planning annual leave?

Unfortunately as ASLEF members we have no more information than you do and often hear it first on the news. Two weeks notice has to be given.

 

[irish_rail]

Are there any rumours or updates because as I am a train passenger I would like to know the likelihood of a strike in the next month or so because of planning annual leave?

Personally I'd be shocked now to see a strike announced in the next couple of months.

 

[greyman42]

Why hit largely left leaning groups, many of whom are on the side of drivers? Wrong target.

The unions will want to cause maximum disruption and publicity. They could not care less if the people on the end of their action are left leaning groups.
And don't forget, there will not be a strike on the Sunday.

 

[irish_rail]

The unions will want to cause maximum disruption and publicity. They could not care less if the people on the end of their action are left leaning groups.
And don't forget, there will not be a strike on the Sunday.

You have a very Tory view of the attitudes of the union.

 

[greyman42]

You have a very Tory view of the attitudes of the union.

Are you saying I am wrong?

 

[irish_rail]

Are you saying I am wrong?

I do think your wrong yes. Let's see if Glasto gets targeted. If it does you get bragging rights OK?

 

[greyman42]

I do think your wrong yes. Let's see if Glasto gets targeted. If it does you get bragging rights OK?

Well the strikes on Saturdays affect football supporters so where would you put the majority of them on the right /left spectrum?

 

[Bald Rick]

I expect there‘s some union/ Labour politics playing out in all this - can’t see a strike before the election. It would be bad news for Labour (Given Mick Whelan is on the Labour NEC) and they will not want any possible bad news in the next 4 weeks.

 

[irish_rail]

Well the strikes on Saturdays affect football supporters so where would you put the majority of them on the right /left spectrum?

Generally fairly right leaning with some exceptions.

 

[Topological]

Generally fairly right leaning with some exceptions.

Far more likely to vote Labour though, predominantly those who switched to Conservatives in 2019 to finish off Brexit and therefore unlikely to remain Conservative at the coming election.

Possibly some who would not lean as far left as Corbyn though, but now Starmer has consigned Corbynites to the history books so...

Either way, I think there will not be any strikes before the election as there is very little benefit. Likewise, striking shortly after the new government comes in looks selfish and I do not think there would be any strikes in the early days of the next government.