Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[najaB]

Neither the nation's interests, the interests of the Tory Party or even Sunak's own interests will play into it.

This, exactly. All of the above would have been best served by an election last year.

 

[Gloster]

Perhaps he will give his final day’s speech at the party conference, get the usual massive ovation from the faithful sheep, think he is supremely popular and announce a snap election as, ’everybody loves me and my policies, don’t they’. Alternatively, he is just adopting the Micawber strategy: hoping that ‘something will turn up.’

 

[nw1]

Perhaps he will give his final day’s speech at the party conference, get the usual massive ovation from the faithful sheep, think he is supremely popular and announce a snap election as, ’everybody loves me and my policies, don’t they’. Alternatively, he is just adopting the Micawber strategy: hoping that ‘something will turn up.’

I can picture the conference being used to announce it. I guess that might tie in with a Nov 14 date, another one that's been bandied around.

I do see November as the absolute latest date, even bearing in mind the discussion above, and probably in the first three weeks to avoid running into the Christmas season. I'd say 95% chance now of either Oct or Nov.

 

[3141]

Perhaps he will give his final day’s speech at the party conference, get the usual massive ovation from the faithful sheep, think he is supremely popular and announce a snap election as, ’everybody loves me and my policies, don’t they’. Alternatively, he is just adopting the Micawber strategy: hoping that ‘something will turn up.’

Thinking about it from the Conservative Party's situation,

1) An election now, or in a few weeks' time, would most likely lead to a massive defeat.
2) Holding out till the last possible moment - January - leaves no room for manoeuvre, and as other posters have said the weather will be cold, it gets dark early, fuel bills are high, and they might be campaigning over Christmas,
3) But something may turn up, during the summer: fuel bills are lower, the weather is generally nicer, inflation may have fallen further, there could be an Autumn Statement offering tax cuts.

I haven't checked the dates of the various party conferences. If the Conservatives are first, hold theirs, encourage the faithful, make some good announcements, then dissolve Parliament, taking away from Labour and the others the opportunity to make the big announcements they may have been planning. If Labour are first and the Conservatives last, then hope that, whatever Labour have announced, later announcements from the Conservatives will get a lot of publicity, and plunge into the election campaign immediately after the conference has finished. Or hold the election during the party conference season, in spite of having recently said that's not the intention.

It's a matter of holding the election at a time when their prospects are awful, or when, with a bit (or lot) of luck, they might be slightly better, i.e. a smaller Labour majority or a hung Parliament.

 

[Gloster]

I haven't checked the dates of the various party conferences. If the Conservatives are first, hold theirs, encourage the faithful, make some good announcements, then dissolve Parliament, taking away from Labour and the others the opportunity to make the big announcements they may have been planning. If Labour are first and the Conservatives last, then hope that, whatever Labour have announced, later announcements from the Conservatives will get a lot of publicity, and plunge into the election campaign immediately after the conference has finished. Or hold the election during the party conference season, in spite of having recently said that's not the intention.

Liberal Democrats 14-17 September
Labour 22-25 September
Conservatives 29 September-2 October

 

[Busaholic]

Sunak will be off to California quicker than John Major was to the Oval cricket ground in 1997 after the election, especially if the 'unthinkable' happened and he lost his seat! Unfortunately, with the likely number of spurious candidates standing against him, the FPTP system makes that prospect even less likely, though I can dream!

As for Zahawi, I can only say that, along with Johnson, if he entered politics 'to make a difference', it certainly wasn't to make the general population better off. If I were still a bookseller, I'd have no truck with his volume of self-satisfaction and self-justification, a work of fiction to be placed alongside Jeffrey Archer, his mentor, in the A-Z of books I'd never stock.

 

[Gloster]

As for Zahawi, I can only say that, along with Johnson, if he entered politics 'to make a difference', it certainly wasn't to make the general population better off. If I were still a bookseller, I'd have no truck with his volume of self-satisfaction and self-justification, a work of fiction to be placed alongside Jeffrey Archer, his mentor, in the A-Z of books I'd never stock.

But he probably did want to ‘make a difference’…by helping to remove all those irritating hindrances from the law, HMRC, etc., that prevent those vitally important ‘wealth makers’ from making more wealth. It is a cross that he bravely bears that he sees himself as one of those wealth makers. Anyway, what is nearly £5 million nowadays.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

A government riding high in the opinion polls will call an early election in case something awful turns up.
A government trailing badly in the opinion polls will delay calling an election in case something good turns up.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

A government riding high in the opinion polls will call an early election in case something awful turns up.
A government trailing badly in the opinion polls will delay calling an election in case something good turns up.

Exactly. And no coincidence that the final terms of both the Thatcher/Major and the Blair/Brown Governments were both 5 year terms, with the election delayed until close to the last minute before they lost.

 

[aavm]

Boris was popular in the party (who choose from the top 2 MPs select), so he would have been re-elected by a landslide if he'd stood.

 

[JamesT]

Boris was popular in the party (who choose from the top 2 MPs select), so he would have been re-elected by a landslide if he'd stood.

To get to the membership you have to get past the MPs first. It’s not hard for them to engineer it so a candidate they don’t like doesn’t make it to the final ballot. Given the acrimonious way his leadership ended, I would suggest that only a few months on there wouldn’t necessarily be the appetite to go back.

 

[Magdalia]

Liberal Democrats 14-17 September
Labour 22-25 September
Conservatives 29 September-2 October

Oher possibly significant dates are the end of British Summer Time on 27 October and the US Presidential election, which is on 5 November.

 

[nw1]

Exactly. And no coincidence that the final terms of both the Thatcher/Major and the Blair/Brown Governments were both 5 year terms, with the election delayed until close to the last minute before they lost.

Except a January election would not work well for Sunak, as seen.

I don't expect a pre-summer-holiday election, but I certainly think there's a 95% chance of an Oct/Nov election.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 May 2024 ==

Oher possibly significant dates are the end of British Summer Time on 27 October and the US Presidential election, which is on 5 November.

So 24 Oct or even 31 Oct (after BST) would ensure the campaigning period is largely or wholly within BST.

Unlikely they'll hold it in the US election week. I'm guessing this is why 14 Nov is being bandied around a lot.

Any later than 14 Nov will run into the Christmas period.

So 24 Oct, 31 Oct or 14 Nov are presumably the most likely dates. Could be earlier in Oct I guess but then you clash with the conference season.

 

[Busaholic]

But he probably did want to ‘make a difference’…by helping to remove all those irritating hindrances from the law, HMRC, etc., that prevent those vitally important ‘wealth makers’ from making more wealth. It is a cross that he bravely bears that he sees himself as one of those wealth makers. Anyway, what is nearly £5 million nowadays.

Quite! I was kind of inferring that, and I'm afraid there must now be many MPs whose base motivations they wouldn't like revealed. I don't go along with the old saw that all potential MPs are seeking office primarily to aid their constituents, any more than all entrants to the police force and the law have the purest of motives. The point comes where a sizeable minority, if not actual majority, are out to further their own interests/ feather their nests, etc. Sorry to be so cynical, but I see the evidence before my eyes.

 

[Tezza1978]

So 24 Oct, 31 Oct or 14 Nov are presumably the most likely dates. Could be earlier in Oct I guess but then you clash with the conference season.

No government is ever going to hold an election on Halloween. PR/Media/Meme/Banter own goal for them......

 

[Statto]

For the election to be held on 22rd January, which is the latest possible Thursday the election can be held on, the election would have to be called on 12th December, as they have to give 25 working days notice, another thing to think of, a January election would mean campaigning being done through the festive season, does anyone fancy the prospect of that, even though this Government will try & hang on for as long as possible.

Here's a list of the latest dates the election has to be called by

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9921/

 

[nw1]

No government is ever going to hold an election on Halloween. PR/Media/Meme/Banter own goal for them......

Well they tried to do Brexit on Halloween, so if they can do that, they can do an election!

 

[takno]

Except a January election would not work well for Sunak, as seen.

I don't expect a pre-summer-holiday election, but I certainly think there's a 95% chance of an Oct/Nov election.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 20 May 2024 ==



So 24 Oct or even 31 Oct (after BST) would ensure the campaigning period is largely or wholly within BST.

Unlikely they'll hold it in the US election week. I'm guessing this is why 14 Nov is being bandied around a lot.

Any later than 14 Nov will run into the Christmas period.

So 24 Oct, 31 Oct or 14 Nov are presumably the most likely dates. Could be earlier in Oct I guess but then you clash with the conference season.

It wouldn't surprise me if Sunak decides it would be a tremendous jape to organise it for the week of the Labour party conference

 

[Howardh]

For the election to be held on 22rd January, which is the latest possible Thursday the election can be held on, the election would have to be called on 12th December, as they have to give 25 working days notice, another thing to think of, a January election would mean campaigning being done through the festive season, does anyone fancy the prospect of that, even though this Government will try & hang on for as long as possible.

Just wonder how many of the MP's that are quitting at the next election are doing so because they know that will be the date, they get their pay until then, and they won't have to campaign throughout the middle of winter, and during holidays?

 

[nw1]

Just wonder how many of the MP's that are quitting at the next election are doing so because they know that will be the date, they get their pay until then, and they won't have to campaign throughout the middle of winter, and during holidays?

I'm not sure whether that will be a sufficient motivation to quit though.

I remain convinced that will not be the date; mid-November at the latest is a practical certainty I suspect.

 

[najaB]

I remain convinced that will not be the date; mid-November at the latest is a practical certainty I suspect.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if he calls Parliament back from summer recess to have a mini-budget and an election in late August/early September to capture as much of the long days feel-good factor.

 

[Howardh]

If he waits until November then that will be just after the half-term chaos that will be every holidaymaker going abroad (plane/ferry/Eurostar) very likely being stuck for hours in queues while they get their fingerprints and iris scans matched to their passports as new EU entry rules kick in. They won't be happy bunnies and a lot of those may well have voted to leave the EU but won't realise this is the consequence, and the blame will surely be at the Tories' door?

Yes, you won't be reading much about it now, but it is an approaching storm and Sunak would be wise to go to the country before it hits, presumably mid-October. After that then as well as border chaos, we might be starting to be hit with higher winter fuel bills again, making November/December a dodgy time to go. So my bet would be the Thursday before the half-term week.

 

[takno]

If he waits until November then that will be just after the half-term chaos that will be every holidaymaker going abroad (plane/ferry/Eurostar) very likely being stuck for hours in queues while they get their fingerprints and iris scans matched to their passports as new EU entry rules kick in. They won't be happy bunnies and a lot of those may well have voted to leave the EU but won't realise this is the consequence, and the blame will surely be at the Tories' door?

Yes, you won't be reading much about it now, but it is an approaching storm and Sunak would be wise to go to the country before it hits, presumably mid-October. After that then as well as border chaos, we might be starting to be hit with higher winter fuel bills again, making November/December a dodgy time to go. So my bet would be the Thursday before the half-term week.

Most people don't go on holiday abroad in the October half term, and even when there are issues like this most travelers end up not being greatly inconvencienced by it. Of the people who do get inconvenienced, only a small proportion will see this as a massive inconvenience direct consequential from Brexit, and of those only a few will see it as not a price worth paying, and the vast majority of those will already have made their minds up about how to vote. There are plenty of things which might be a factor but this just isn't one of them.

 

[Howardh]

Most people don't go on holiday abroad in the October half term, and even when there are issues like this most travelers end up not being greatly inconvencienced by it. Of the people who do get inconvenienced, only a small proportion will see this as a massive inconvenience direct consequential from Brexit, and of those only a few will see it as not a price worth paying, and the vast majority of those will already have made their minds up about how to vote. There are plenty of things which might be a factor but this just isn't one of them.

I disagree, personal experience shows that the week is far busier than any other week in October and hotels prices rise to match! However I'll put that to one side, I'm more concerned about

even when there are issues like this most travelers end up not being greatly inconvencienced by it

when in reality we've no idea what will happen; other than the ports and authorities already sending out warning signals;

Plans to avert port chaos as new EU checks come in

The chief operations officer at the Port of Dover has spoken of their plans to avert chaos

www.kentlive.news

New EU checks could mean a "backlog of queues on to surrounding roads" at Port of Dover. But the chief operations officer at the Port of Dover has spoken of their plans to avert chaos.

Plans to avert major disruption at the Channel ports this autumn caused by new EU biometric checks are “well underway”, despite continued warnings of long delays. Port of Dover officials and top brass from Kent County Council (KCC) met to discuss how to minimise queues and keep traffic moving.

The EU is due to implement fingerprint and facial scanning on October 6 which will be carried out at Dover and the Eurotunnel terminal at Folkestone. All non-EU travellers in cars will have to be processed at border controls in the UK to capture their biometric data, potentially causing massive delays.

Warning EU border system has lasting "negative impacts"

Ferry firms and Dover port warn business and communities would suffer from new EU border checks.

www.bbc.co.uk

The Port of Dover and ferry companies have warned of "serious and lasting negative impacts" if the EU's new border IT system is implemented this autumn.

It said if the current plans go ahead "communities, businesses and authorities" would suffer.

Under the delayed Entry Exit System, people entering the EU will have to register fingerprints, a photo and passport details.

Long queues have also been predicted.

Juxtaposed border controls mean French border police check passports as people leave the UK to cross the Channel from Dover, London St Pancras and Folkestone.

There have been warnings for more than a year that this could cause very long queues, because of the extra time registration will take.

In joint written evidence to the European Scrutiny Committee, the Port of Dover, DFDS, Irish Ferries, and P&O Ferries said there was an "existential risk facing critical supply chains, businesses, communities, and the tourism economy of nations on both sides of the Channel from the current lack of appropriate regime for the introduction of the EU Entry Exit System (EES)".

They said there would be a "severe" impact on Dover's ferry business because the system "would not be capable of processing current car and coaches volumes".

Although in balance, if tourists can see all this approaching there's a good chance that this year they will stay "at home/UK" in order to avoid all this chaos and thing's won't be so bad. However as holidays are being booked in advance, how many still don't realise what's approaching this autumn?

 

[nw1]

Most people don't go on holiday abroad in the October half term, and even when there are issues like this most travelers end up not being greatly inconvencienced by it. Of the people who do get inconvenienced, only a small proportion will see this as a massive inconvenience direct consequential from Brexit, and of those only a few will see it as not a price worth paying, and the vast majority of those will already have made their minds up about how to vote. There are plenty of things which might be a factor but this just isn't one of them.

Maybe not a big enough deal for the election, but I do suspect that it will cause a big political backlash. Though primary blame will be ascribed, I suspect, according to pre-existing political beliefs; it's unlikely to cause anyone to shift position. It will merely make both "Remainers" and Brexiters more entrenched in their pre-existing views. "Remainers" will primarily blame the UK government while Brexiters will primarily blame Schengen.

 

[takno]

I disagree, personal experience shows that the week is far busier than any other week in October and hotels prices rise to match! However I'll put that to one side, I'm more concerned about

Of the people who go on holiday in October it's quite possible that the majority go during half term week. In any given year however a solid majority of the electorate won't go abroad at all, and of the ones who go abroad an overwhelming majority don't go to Europe in October. I have no doubt that there will be issues and queues, but the simple fact is that most people won't be affected, and there's a good chance that most affected people are the sorts of cosmopolitan Europe-lovers who have already very much made up their minds about Brexit and the Tory party.

 

[Howardh]

.

I realise us, the UK, are introducing the same kind of system too, which is just as bad. So, I'm not singling out Schengen here but merely critiquing the increasing distrust that advanced liberal democratic countries appear to have in each other.

We are indeed, which begs the question, how many of those in Europe who only need ID cards to travel freely to 20-odd (maybe 30-odd?) countries will be bothered with all the expense and effort of obtaining a passport and associated documents just to travel to the UK? I certainly wouldn't, and have a feeling it will hit our tourist income down the line. Would love to be proved wrong, but I really do see the number of tourists down and the £b's we will miss out on.

Politically, this possible reduction of fiscal income will put pressure on the next government (Labour!) to fill the gaps, and that could only be through tax rises or severe austerity, so it's a win-win for the Tories ("look, we said Labour would increase taxes, even though it's our Brexit policies that caused it"). Labour needs to be absolutely clear about this, it's a mess not of their making.

 

[JamesT]

We are indeed, which begs the question, how many of those in Europe who only need ID cards to travel freely to 20-odd (maybe 30-odd?) countries will be bothered with all the expense and effort of obtaining a passport and associated documents just to travel to the UK? I certainly wouldn't, and have a feeling it will hit our tourist income down the line. Would love to be proved wrong, but I really do see the number of tourists down and the £b's we will miss out on.

Politically, this possible reduction of fiscal income will put pressure on the next government (Labour!) to fill the gaps, and that could only be through tax rises or severe austerity, so it's a win-win for the Tories ("look, we said Labour would increase taxes, even though it's our Brexit policies that caused it"). Labour needs to be absolutely clear about this, it's a mess not of their making.

According to https://www.visitbritain.org/research-insights/inbound-tourism-forecast

European inbound tourism to the UK recovered to 91% of 2019 levels in 2023 in volume terms and this is forecast to pick up slightly to 92% in 2024.

Though it’s hard to say how much of that will be Brexit and how much is a Covid hangover or people reducing discretionary spending after the rise in inflation.

 

[Howardh]

According to https://www.visitbritain.org/research-insights/inbound-tourism-forecast

Though it’s hard to say how much of that will be Brexit and how much is a Covid hangover or people reducing discretionary spending after the rise in inflation.

Interesting, I bet it's a lot cheaper for British to visit Spain than for Spanish to visit the UK! Although where I tend to stay in Spain (Ibiza/Formentera), I've seen a marked increase in hotel rates off-peak, never mind peak, so at the end of September I found it difficult to find a room under E100; although through booking early and using discount on their own site, I grabbed 10 days in my favourite location for under £1000.

Of course places like Torremolinos offer decent hotels for a much lower price, but again those "lower prices" are much greater than pre-Ukraine.

 

[RT4038]

We are indeed, which begs the question, how many of those in Europe who only need ID cards to travel freely to 20-odd (maybe 30-odd?) countries will be bothered with all the expense and effort of obtaining a passport and associated documents just to travel to the UK? I certainly wouldn't, and have a feeling it will hit our tourist income down the line. Would love to be proved wrong, but I really do see the number of tourists down and the £b's we will miss out on.

Politically, this possible reduction of fiscal income will put pressure on the next government (Labour!) to fill the gaps, and that could only be through tax rises or severe austerity, so it's a win-win for the Tories ("look, we said Labour would increase taxes, even though it's our Brexit policies that caused it"). Labour needs to be absolutely clear about this, it's a mess not of their making.

I suspect the vast majority of people from the EU who want to come to visit the UK will continue to do so, and the need to acquire a passport will not deflect them from their journey(s). I think that people come to visit the UK for the particular culture and experience [rather than the generic 'sun', or a generic place to visit] which is unobtainable in the same way in other European countries.