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Effect of East West Rail on bus services

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Bletchleyite

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A thought I had is that it seems very likely to me that the opening of the Oxford-Milton Keynes and Oxford-Bedford sections of East West Rail will kill the Stagecoach X5 off entirely by taking most of the custom (yes, it's only two quid, but it's also grim bouncing and bounding around the countryside on an urban double decker). I do half wonder if part of the reason for the split with the 905 (though there were other reasons) was to ease this.

If the Aylesbury-MKC service starts, I think that could well also do for the X4 and X6 Milton Keynes to Aylesbury services.

That of course will have quite a big potential impact on Wing (which despite being small gets quite a good service) and Buckingham (which isn't that small) - it potentially leaving the latter with barely any service to/from Milton Keynes and potentially no service at all in the Oxford/Bicester/Aylesbury directions.

What do others think will happen? I don't think Buckinghamshire Council does much subsidising of buses at present, least of all to places outside its remit...
 
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Parebunks

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A thought I had is that it seems very likely to me that the opening of the Oxford-Milton Keynes and Oxford-Bedford sections of East West Rail will kill the Stagecoach X5 off entirely by taking most of the custom (yes, it's only two quid, but it's also grim bouncing and bounding around the countryside on an urban double decker). I do half wonder if part of the reason for the split with the 905 (though there were other reasons) was to ease this.

If the Aylesbury-MKC service starts, I think that could well also do for the X4 and X6 Milton Keynes to Aylesbury services.

That of course will have quite a big potential impact on Wing (which despite being small gets quite a good service) and Buckingham (which isn't that small) - it potentially leaving the latter with barely any service to/from Milton Keynes and potentially no service at all in the Oxford/Bicester/Aylesbury directions.

What do others think will happen? I don't think Buckinghamshire Council does much subsidising of buses at present, least of all to places outside its remit...
I actually doubt it. From experience, X5 traffic from Oxford is roughly even to Bicester, Buckingham and MK, then fairly negligible on to Bedford. Bicester of course already has the train so that traffic is presumably fairly secure, and Buckingham isn't getting the train. Losing (some of) the MK flow will be a problem, but IMO possibly not even enough to warrant a frequency reduction down to hourly. Could see a restructure integrating more closely with the S5 and X6 to avoid duplication though, especially with Arriva seemingly pulling back in Buckinghamshire.
 

Bletchleyite

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I actually doubt it. From experience, X5 traffic from Oxford is roughly even to Bicester, Buckingham and MK, then fairly negligible on to Bedford. Bicester of course already has the train so that traffic is presumably fairly secure, and Buckingham isn't getting the train. Losing (some of) the MK flow will be a problem, but IMO possibly not even enough to warrant a frequency reduction down to hourly. Could see a restructure integrating more closely with the S5 and X6 to avoid duplication though, especially with Arriva seemingly pulling back in Buckinghamshire.

I did wonder if one of the "happy path" possibilities might just be the S5 being extended back to Milton Keynes once an hour. There are other MK<->Bedford bus services and as you say it's not the busy bit.
 

Parebunks

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I did wonder if one of the "happy path" possibilities might just be the S5 being extended back to Milton Keynes once an hour. There are other MK<->Bedford bus services and as you say it's not the busy bit.
Working on the assumption that EWR would damage the X5 enough to make it non-viable, my preference would be:
4 BPH S5 Oxford to Bicester, 2 BPH extending to Buckingham.
1 BPH X6 Aylesbury-Buckingham-MK as at present, but operating later and with double deckers.
1 BPH 905 MK-Bedford - the fast bus will still work out quicker than the train to Bedford from MK, and the Coachway link is important. Without the X5 attaching it to the 905 makes most sense, restores MK-Cambridge.
All a bit speculative tho, I don't the X5 is actually at that much risk.
 

A0

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A thought I had is that it seems very likely to me that the opening of the Oxford-Milton Keynes and Oxford-Bedford sections of East West Rail will kill the Stagecoach X5 off entirely by taking most of the custom (yes, it's only two quid, but it's also grim bouncing and bounding around the countryside on an urban double decker). I do half wonder if part of the reason for the split with the 905 (though there were other reasons) was to ease this.

If the Aylesbury-MKC service starts, I think that could well also do for the X4 and X6 Milton Keynes to Aylesbury services.

That of course will have quite a big potential impact on Wing (which despite being small gets quite a good service) and Buckingham (which isn't that small) - it potentially leaving the latter with barely any service to/from Milton Keynes and potentially no service at all in the Oxford/Bicester/Aylesbury directions.

What do others think will happen? I don't think Buckinghamshire Council does much subsidising of buses at present, least of all to places outside its remit...

EWR doesn't serve Buckingham - that's the reason why the X5 will probably survive, though I could see it being curtailed to Bicester as the Bicester - Oxford stretch is the slow part due to the volume of traffic on the A34.

The X4 and X6 won't be affected by EWR apart from end to end journeys if the Aylesbury - MK service comes into being, but given the X4 and X6 serve Leighton Buzzard which EWR won't, then I think they'll be safe as well.
 

goldisgood

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My thoughts are similar to those expressed above - from my experiences there are relatively significant flows through Buckingham, but there is probably room for a more efficient network following East West Rail. The best outcome for a network I reckon would be:

- 905 extended to Milton Keynes: as stated above flows to Bedford seem to be weaker anyway, and restores links from Milton Keynes to Cambridge which are likely to become more significant and more viable.

- X6 split into an Aylesbury-Buckingham service and an Old Stratford-MK service: custom across Buckingham is likely to disappear with the train station in Winslow, but saying this Im unsure how significant the local flows are between Buckingham and Stony Stratford.

- X5/S5 integrated into a coordinated 4BPH Oxford - Bicester, with 2BPH to Glory Farm and 2BPH to Milton Keynes (running the X6 route through Buckingham)
 

Bletchleyite

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Old Stratford-MK would struggle to justify anything, it's tiny. Stony has the 5 or 6 (I forget) already and it's not far nor particularly unpleasant to walk there. MK Metro tried a Stony express service via the A5 but it didn't work.

If you wanted to cover the far end of Old Stratford where there is some new development, you could put a pair of stops on the A422 by the pedestrian/cycle bridge which is only a short walk from there.
 
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A thought I had is that it seems very likely to me that the opening of the Oxford-Milton Keynes and Oxford-Bedford sections of East West Rail will kill the Stagecoach X5 off entirely by taking most of the custom (yes, it's only two quid, but it's also grim bouncing and bounding around the countryside on an urban double decker). I do half wonder if part of the reason for the split with the 905 (though there were other reasons) was to ease this.

If the Aylesbury-MKC service starts, I think that could well also do for the X4 and X6 Milton Keynes to Aylesbury services.

That of course will have quite a big potential impact on Wing (which despite being small gets quite a good service) and Buckingham (which isn't that small) - it potentially leaving the latter with barely any service to/from Milton Keynes and potentially no service at all in the Oxford/Bicester/Aylesbury directions.

What do others think will happen? I don't think Buckinghamshire Council does much subsidising of buses at present, least of all to places outside its remit...
I have heard a number of times over the years that the legislation that closed the Varsity line - Cambridge to Oxford via Bedford and Bletchley - specified that a replacement bus service (currently the X5 Oxford to Bedford and then 905 Bedfod to Cambridge) must run in perpetuity. This because of the importance of Oxford and Cambridge universities and the need to be able to get between the two.

This may be an urban myth but does anyone know exactly what the legal position is should the opening of the Oxford-MK section of East-West Rail kill off the Oxford-MK bus?
 

A0

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I have heard a number of times over the years that the legislation that closed the Varsity line - Cambridge to Oxford via Bedford and Bletchley - specified that a replacement bus service (currently the X5 Oxford to Bedford and then 905 Bedfod to Cambridge) must run in perpetuity. This because of the importance of Oxford and Cambridge universities and the need to be able to get between the two.

This may be an urban myth but does anyone know exactly what the legal position is should the opening of the Oxford-MK section of East-West Rail kill off the Oxford-MK bus?

It's an urban myth. The X5 didn't exist as a route when the rail service was withdrawn.

AIUI there was a coach between Cambridge & Oxford which ran via Tring & Dunstable and was operated jointly by Premier and Percivals (one Cambridge based, the other Oxford).

Timetable World has a 1968 United Counties timetable and the only Oxford services listed are to Bletchley and Bedford.

I think the initial incarnation of the X5 arrived in the mid 80s when United Counties started its Coachlinks network.
 

RT4038

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I have heard a number of times over the years that the legislation that closed the Varsity line - Cambridge to Oxford via Bedford and Bletchley - specified that a replacement bus service (currently the X5 Oxford to Bedford and then 905 Bedfod to Cambridge) must run in perpetuity. This because of the importance of Oxford and Cambridge universities and the need to be able to get between the two.

This may be an urban myth but does anyone know exactly what the legal position is should the opening of the Oxford-MK section of East-West Rail kill off the Oxford-MK bus?
The legislation to close the parts of the Oxford-Bletchley and Bedford-Cambridge line was the same Transport Act 1962 that applied to all the other Beeching closures. The bus services were specified for three years, with BR making up the losses, and even that requirement was removed in the 1968 Transport Act (enacted in 1969). Definitely nothing 'in perpetuity'.

The original replacement bus services were nos. 428 (Bedford-Sandy-Cambridge), which was overlaid as an additional limited stop service on the existing unaltered bus network (which gave various new links, but also some duplication), and Service 121 (Bletchley-Winslow-Bicester- Oxford) which largely replaced existing service 377 (Bletchley-Winslow-Buckingham). The Winslow-Bicester section was a new link, and between Bicester and Oxford it augmented existing service. Both services sort of connected with the remaining train service between Bedford and Bletchley, which was not closed at that point due to staff shortages of the bus company and a plague of trip cancellations in the district at the time. (This section of line had some high peak time loadings of scholars and brickyard workers which would have required a considerable number of extra buses, whilst the 428 only required two and the 121 only one)

There was also a long standing coach service (jointly by Premier Travel and Percival's Coaches) that ran Cambridge-Hitchin-Luton-Aylesbury-Oxford on Fr.Sa.Su. which was augmented to a twice daily (with an extra at weekends) at the closure. Unsure if BR contributed to this augmentation, but probably.

It was also possible to travel from Cambridge to Oxford by changing in Bedford from service 128 (Cambridge-Bedford-Northampton) and service 131 (Bedford-Stony Stratford-Bicester-Oxford). However these long standing services did not follow the line of rail and via the intermediate stations, except between Bicester and Oxford - loosely they followed the current X5/905 routeing before the building of MK and various road schemes have changed the landscape somewhat!

Service 428 was a hopeless economic case from the start, and the section from Gamlingay to Cambridge was withdrawn shortly after the three years was up, covered at peak times by an extension of existing Service 118 (Cambridge-Longstowe) to Gamlingay. The rump of the 428 was reduced to 5 journeys and continued for quite some years (by then renumbered 178) well into the 80s if not longer.

The 121 disappeared in the service upheavals related to the opening of Milton Keynes City Centre - I am unsure if the Winslow-Launton section survived at all at that time. Certainly not as a substantial service.

No idea what happened to the Oxford-Luton-Cambridge route - presumably disappeared around deregulation; hopefully someone else can fill us in there?

It must be remembered that Oxford and Cambridge are rival universities and back in 1967 it was almost seen as treachery for an individual to be seen as co-operating! I very much doubt the rail link did much business, or that it was important to the nation - the academics should have enough nous to travel via London if they really had to go. There wasn't much other economic activity to cause any intermediate residents to travel, other than what was generally more convenient by existing bus services. Things have moved on since then with development of course and EW rail will require some pretty hefty developments along the route to be sustainable (which we can see are already starting to come). In 1967 the closed sections were very rural indeed.
 

A0

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No idea what happened to the Oxford-Luton-Cambridge route - presumably disappeared around deregulation; hopefully someone else can fill us in there?

An Oxford - Cambridge link survived through to Cambridge Coach Services days - after Premier was split up, albeit running via Stansted and Heathrow airports - see timetable leaflet on link below.

 
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Thanks for the bus service history - makes interesting reading.

service 131 (Bedford-Stony Stratford-Bicester-Oxford).

Ah the 131, I remember it well - and this is going to go off topic, sorry, so I'll start another thread.
 

RT4038

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Thanks for the bus service history - makes interesting reading.

service 131 (Bedford-Stony Stratford-Bicester-Oxford).

Ah the 131, I remember it well - and this is going to go off topic, sorry, so I'll start another thread.
Please do, we can wallow in some nostalgia..... when buses were buses!
 

PTR 444

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What I find most intriguing about the Oxbridge corridor development is that the long term ambition is to have both high quality road and rail between the two university cities, yet in foreseeable reality the expressway will only exist east of MK, and the railway west of MK.

In this current scenario, I’d say the X5 bus service west of MK is at risk, but that corridor could still maintain a local service with the existing Arriva X6 and an extension of the S5 to Buckingham. East of MK I’d imagine that the remainder of the X5 would be merged with the 905, maintaining the fast link between MK and Bedford which EWR would be unable to replicate due to the need to reverse at Bletchley.

Saying that, I think there could be a case for running an express bus non-stop between MK, Bedford and Cambridge in the event that the eastern section of EWR doesn’t go ahead.
 

Teds

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No idea what happened to the Oxford-Luton-Cambridge route - presumably disappeared around deregulation; hopefully someone else can fill us in there?
The route was taken on by National Express using Percivals and Premier Travel as contractors (among others). It was extended at both ends to offer Bristol to Norwich journeys. It was also more frequent but operated by various different routes. That would have been in the 1980's but I don't know how long it lasted. There has been no equivalent routes for many years - operated by either National Express or anyone else. I found a timetable from 1984 https://www.ipernity.com/doc/davidslater-spoddendale/36880144 which shows the three routes between Oxford and Cambridge. This is the text which describes the image.

'Premier Travel of Cambridge and Percivals Coaches of Oxford were two independent coach operators that had worked a joint service between those two university cities for a number of years. National Express (and its predecessor Associated Motorways) had operated services between East Anglia and Cheltenham/Bristol which also travelled via Cambridge and Oxford. The three operators subsequently entered into a joint working arrangement which gave a more improved frequency of service on what became a cross country link between Bristol to Lowestoft numbered 747. This arrangement resulted in the vehicles of Premier Travel and Percivals operating west of Oxford and east of Cambridge and in the latter case also involved Ambassador Travel, United Counties Omnibus Company and Wessex of Bristol operating on behalf of National Express.'
 
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AlastairFraser

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A thought I had is that it seems very likely to me that the opening of the Oxford-Milton Keynes and Oxford-Bedford sections of East West Rail will kill the Stagecoach X5 off entirely by taking most of the custom (yes, it's only two quid, but it's also grim bouncing and bounding around the countryside on an urban double decker). I do half wonder if part of the reason for the split with the 905 (though there were other reasons) was to ease this.

If the Aylesbury-MKC service starts, I think that could well also do for the X4 and X6 Milton Keynes to Aylesbury services.

That of course will have quite a big potential impact on Wing (which despite being small gets quite a good service) and Buckingham (which isn't that small) - it potentially leaving the latter with barely any service to/from Milton Keynes and potentially no service at all in the Oxford/Bicester/Aylesbury directions.

What do others think will happen? I don't think Buckinghamshire Council does much subsidising of buses at present, least of all to places outside its remit...
I reckon the X5/X6 will survive, partly because of Buckingham and the many international UoB commuting into MK for leisure and work.

The X6 will also probably be used for railheading Buckingham to Winslow for EWR as it will pass directly by the new station and it'll only be around 15 mins from central Buckingham on it.

What might be an idea is to turn the X5 into the X6's route with some of the stops east of Buckingham, and then reroute the X6 through to Brackley and Banbury. There is some irregular Banbury to Buckingham service at the moment, but this extension would be very useful for Brackley residents travelling into London/Heathrow from Aylesbury, as well as the EWR option at Winslow (plus the existing schooling/shopping connections across the county).

As for the Aylesbury/MK connections via Leighton Buzzard, I think the old 150 (now X4 Aylesbury - Wing - LB - MK suburbs - MK Central) could survive on the basis of schools traffic on the Aylesbury to LB corridor, and shopping trips/commuting into MK/Aylesbury/LB.

The rival Red Rose 100 express Aylesbury to MK via Fenny Stratford and MK Stadium I perceive as much more vulnerable, if Aylesbury to MK on the train takes off, because it avoids Leighton Buzzard and the source of traffic there. Red Rose Travel have also studiously avoided joining the £2 fare scheme (which seems to have no real end date), so I see all their routes as more vulnerable to competition from other sources.
 

Man of Kent

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The route was taken on by National Express using Percivals and Premier Travel as contractors (among others). It was extended at both ends to offer Bristol to Norwich journeys. It was also more frequent but operated by various different routes. That would have been in the 1980's but I don't know how long it lasted. There has been no equivalent routes for many years - operated by either National Express or anyone else. I found a timetable from 1984 https://www.ipernity.com/doc/davidslater-spoddendale/36880144 which shows the three routes between Oxford and Cambridge. This is the text which describes the image.
Was it what morphed into the Cambridge Coach Services offering? Route 75 ran every two hours, and by 1998 (as shown in my only copy of a Great Britain Bus timetable) was running via Stansted, London Colney, Amersham and High Wycombe.
 
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