Capacity of HS2 during evening peaks.

[Nottingham59]

Without phase 2a, HS2 capacity will be limited by the number of trains that can fit through the flat crossing at Colwich. During the day, throughput will be limited to around 10 tph or less: 6xHS2; 2xWCML (one fast, one slow); 2xfreights. The constraint comes from the WCML being a mixed traffic railway with slow freights and fast passenger trains.

But during the evening peak period, 4-7pm out of Euston and around 5-8pm at Colwich, there won't be any freights timetabled and all trains will running at the same speed on the WCML (110mph). The capacity of Colwich and Shugborough tunnel should be much higher. I'd expect that 12tph or more would be easily possible through Colwich, e.g. 2xWCML; 10xHS2. Similarly, I'd expect the capacity of Crewe-Weaver to be much greater with a passenger-only evening peak. And trains coming into Euston from the depot to serve peak flows won't need cleaning, so could turn round faster at Euston.

Is my reasoning correct? What will the capacity of HS2 at peak times with no freights timetabled over the critical junctions? Where will the constraints be? Could extra trains terminate at Warrington or Preston or Macclesfield, if they won't fit into Manchester or Liverpool?

For info, the indicative train service for HS2 phase one shows 7tph from HS2 going through Colwich.
"Assessment of Parliamentary Powers (Phase One only). The Parliamentary Powers case assumes 6tph from Old Oak Common to
Birmingham and the North West (via Handsacre Junction) in 2029. From 2031, 10tph are assumed to operate from Euston to Birmingham and the North West (via Handsacre Junction).

 

[The Planner]

Why is there an assumption no freight will be there? Same goes for the 110mph on the WCML, none of that is agreed. Now that 2A isnt being built amd subsequently nothing is being done at Crewe, the Manchester services will highly likely end up like now, 2xStoke 1xCrewe. Crewe Weaver will still have freight on it and needs resignalling to increase capacity and intermediate local stops will constrain capacity. Your proposed peak there is 5.30 to 8.30, so freight will be around. Stafford becomes a constraint unless any traffic to/from the West Mids is kept off the fasts.

 

[ThameslinkUser]

Why is there an assumption no freight will be there?

Because there will be no freight on HS2.

 

[JonathanH]

Because there will be no freight on HS2.

HS2 isn't the constraint for services north of the point at which trains join the existing network.

 

[The Planner]

Because there will be no freight on HS2.

That isnt what is being said, the assumption is that there is no freight at Colwich in the peaks.

 

[Nottingham59]

Why is there an assumption no freight will be there?

The Indicative plan of services of the WCML and HS2 following introduction of Phase One services (Fig 1.8 in the Phase One Full Business Case) shows 5tph freight paths on the WCML in the off peak and none in the evening peak. I'm exploring what happens to HS2 capacity if you extend that principle to Handsacre - Warrington after phase one is built.

Same goes for the 110mph on the WCML, none of that is agreed.

HS2 trains are limited to 110mph on classic lines. So are 350s. There may be just one pendolino through Colwich, but that could be pathed to 110mph to match all the others. At the pinch point, trains will be slowing for Shugborough (75mph) or the curve to Stone (45mph, according to openrailwaymap) anyway.

Now that 2A isnt being built amd subsequently nothing is being done at Crewe, the Manchester services will highly likely end up like now, 2xStoke 1xCrewe.

Probably. Could they fit more in the peak?

Crewe Weaver will still have freight on it

During the day, yes. Maybe it needs to be constrained at peak times.

and needs resignalling to increase capacity and intermediate local stops will constrain capacity.

Of course.

Your proposed peak there is 5.30 to 8.30, so freight will be around.

Not necessarily when the Euston peak comes through.

Stafford becomes a constraint unless any traffic to/from the West Mids is kept off the fasts.

Wasn't that the whole point of Norton Bridge? To grade separate West Mids - Manchester from London - Crewe?

 

[The Planner]

The Indicative plan of services of the WCML and HS2 following introduction of Phase One services (Fig 1.8 in the Phase One Full Business Case) shows 5tph freight paths on the WCML in the off peak and none in the evening peak. I'm exploring what happens to HS2 capacity if you extend that principle to Handsacre - Warrington after phase one is built.

Id ignore anything in that now.

Wasn't that the whole point of Norton Bridge? To grade separate West Mids - Manchester from London - Crewe?

Doesn't solve Birmingham to/from the North/Crewe which will either use Doxey or Stafford South.
As for the freight being told they cannot run in the peaks, Id love to be in the room when that one is proposed. What you are effectively saying is that the whole operation from the port to the end customer alters.

 

[Nottingham59]

Doesn't solve Birmingham to/from the North/Crewe which will either use Doxey or Stafford South.

Could you explain what you mean? I'd expect all traffic from Birmingham to stay on the slows through Stafford and end up on the slows to Crewe or use the Norton Bridge flyover to access the line to Stone. So freight from West Midlands to Basford Hall would be unconstrained and not conflict at all with the ~12tph fast passenger services coming through Colwich which would use the fasts to Crewe and beyond.

As for the freight being told they cannot run in the peaks, Id love to be in the room when that one is proposed. What you are effectively saying is that the whole operation from the port to the end customer alters.

For three, perhaps two, hours out of 24. Thats not unusual elsewhere on the network.

 

[The Planner]

Could you explain what you mean? I'd expect all traffic from Birmingham to stay on the slows through Stafford and end up on the slows to Crewe or use the Norton Bridge flyover to access the line to Stone. So freight from West Midlands to Basford Hall would be unconstrained and not conflict at all with the ~12tph fast passenger services coming through Colwich which would use the fasts to Crewe and beyond.

You have Birmingham to Liverpool passenger services, and depending on what happens to the Euston to Glasgow passenger service, that as well. You are just pushing that problem from Stafford to Crewe in your scenario.

For three, perhaps two, hours out of 24. Thats not unusual elsewhere on the network.

Maybe not, but the WCML is a bit of a different beast.

 

[Starmill]

But during the evening peak period, 4-7pm out of Euston and around 5-8pm at Colwich, there won't be any freights timetabled

I think this just fundamentally isn't true. There will likely be more freight than today, and likely there will be no "ban" on it passing through Colwich, Stafford, Crewe and Waver Jn for three hours in the middle of the afternoon.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Mar 2024 ==

The Indicative plan of services of the WCML and HS2 following introduction of Phase One services (Fig 1.8 in the Phase One Full Business Case)

I'm afraid that without Euston, none of that plan really has any relevance any more. Unless and until a new plan for Euston or somewhere else is confirmed.

 

[Krokodil]

To what extent do the Avanti departures from Euston still have peaks? I strongly doubt that it is anything like the three southern TOCs at their busiest, where the difference between peaks and troughs was extreme. More likely that the peaks are comparitively minor bumps and that there is a reasonably high level of demand throughout the day

 

[Nottingham59]

To what extent do the Avanti departures from Euston still have peaks? I strongly doubt that it is anything like the three southern TOCs at their busiest, where the difference between peaks and troughs was extreme. More likely that the peaks are comparitively minor bumps and that there is a reasonably high level of demand throughout the day

Maybe that shows more a consistency of supply rather than demand? The extreme variation in ticket prices between the peak-time Avanti trains and the off peak shows that the demand is very peaky, until modified by pricing action.

And a cost-benefit analysis that took account of wasted time as people hung around in Euston waiting for the off-peak trains to start would highlight the need for increased supply to meet the actual demand between 4 and 7pm.

 

[Starmill]

The extreme variation in ticket prices between the peak-time Avanti trains and the off peak shows that the demand is very peaky, until modified by pricing action.

The important thing to remember here is that the pricing doesn't act to smooth out the number of people travelling. It's optimised against doing that, because doing so better achieves the primary optimisation, which is for revenue in pounds, not sales in numbers.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Mar 2024 ==

And a cost-benefit analysis that took account of wasted time as people hung around in Euston waiting for the off-peak trains to start would highlight the need for increased supply to meet the actual demand between 4 and 7pm.

I'm not sure it would. Boardings are pretty consistent per train on Friday afternoons for about 7 hours for example.

 

[HSTEd]

Given that HS2 is going to be half empty given the cancellation of most of the infrastructure, wouldn't we expect a load of peak trains running Curzon Street-Euston all shacks (and vice versa)?

It would be revenue for capacity that is otherwise totally unusable. Assuming Euston is built it would likely pull significant commuter traffic away from WMT. Indeed, it would likely pull significant traffic even without Euston because of the fast Crossrail connection.

 

[The Prisoner]

Without a connection to Euston HS2 is the biggest White Elephant known to man. Nobody wants to get thrown out at OOC regardless of how good the connections to central London are.

 

[Nottingham59]

Without a connection to Euston HS2 is the biggest White Elephant known to man. Nobody wants to get thrown out at OOC regardless of how good the connections to central London are.

Old Oak Common is three stops on the underground from Tottenham Court Road. Same as Euston. But I agree, Euston would be useful, even with only 6 platforms.

I think this just fundamentally isn't true. There will likely be more freight than today, and likely there will be no "ban" on it passing through Colwich, Stafford, Crewe and Waver Jn for three hours in the middle of the afternoon.

The mechanism to limit freight at certain times of the day already exists. Network Rail have the power to charge supplementary track access charges in cases of congested infrastructure. If they did that for two hours in the peak (and reduced track access charges at other times so that total income was unchanged), then freight traffic would switch to off-peak hours.

Maybe a twp-hour evening peak from Euston would be more acceptable to the FoCs? Say 4-6pm from Euston and 5-7pm at Crewe.

Given that HS2 is going to be half empty given the cancellation of most of the infrastructure, wouldn't we expect a load of peak trains running Curzon Street-Euston all shacks (and vice versa)?

Agree. I think you could get up to 6tph x400m to Curzon Street in the evening, if the demand was there and if the season ticket prices were low enough. You could run it as a turn-up-and-go service off a single platform at Euston, with 10-minute turnaround times. But I bet that the passenger circulation space at the revised Euston will not be designed to handle that sort of flow. And you would want to keep the opposite platform empty as a spare.

You have Birmingham to Liverpool passenger services, and depending on what happens to the Euston to Glasgow passenger service, that as well. You are just pushing that problem from Stafford to Crewe in your scenario.

This is true. I'm trying to understand what the constraints are at Crewe and further north.

If Colwich can handle 6tph HS2 + 2tph WCML + 2tph freight during the day, then I would expect it to be able to take 9tph HS2 + 2tph WCML in the evening peak, with no freight. But still with freight runing on the slows from Stafford to Basford Hall.

The question becomes whether Weaver and Wilmslow (and beyond) can handle the HS2 and WCML traffic plus flows coming up from Birmingham. If not, then Colwich is not the constraint that people say it is, and it would be cheaper to grow capacity by building longer platforms at Crewe, Warrington and Preston than building phase 2a.

 

[The Planner]

This is true. I'm trying to understand what the constraints are at Crewe and further north.

If Colwich can handle 6tph HS2 + 2tph WCML + 2tph freight during the day, then I would expect it to be able to take 9tph HS2 + 2tph WCML in the evening peak, with no freight. But still with freight runing on the slows from Stafford to Basford Hall.

The question becomes whether Weaver and Wilmslow (and beyond) can handle the HS2 and WCML traffic plus flows coming up from Birmingham. If not, then Colwich is not the constraint that people say it is, and it would be cheaper to grow capacity by building longer platforms at Crewe, Warrington and Preston than building phase 2a.

What you are proposing is the same quantum of paths now with no freight in the peaks (which if push came to shove, would pay the extra), where does that allow for growth at Colwich? Is there capacity for the freight you have removed off the Trent Valley to go via the West Mids over Stechford, Aston, Bushbury etc, I doubt there is in any significant amount. Winsford Weaver is the constraint north of Crewe. Crewe re-modeling allowed for many more parallel moves than can be delivered now.

 

[Starmill]

The mechanism to limit freight at certain times of the day already exists. Network Rail have the power to charge supplementary track access charges in cases of congested infrastructure. If they did that for two hours in the peak (and reduced track access charges at other times so that total income was unchanged), then freight traffic would switch to off-peak hours.

That's a world away from restrictions on their rights.

 

[HSTEd]

That's a world away from restrictions on their rights.

Well the supplementary charges would have to be so large as to be de-facto prohibition in order to be effective.

 

[Starmill]

Well the supplementary charges would have to be so large as to be de-facto prohibition in order to be effective.

That's exactly the point. Exemplary charges aren't at all likely.

 

[Nottingham59]

Well the supplementary charges would have to be so large as to be de-facto prohibition in order to be effective.

What freight flows are so urgent that they can't be scheduled to pass through Colwich two hours earlier or two hours later?

 

[HSTEd]

What freight flows are so urgent that they can't be scheduled to pass through Colwich two hours earlier or two hours later?

The margins on which the freight industry operate are extremely fine, which is why the track access charges Network Rail charges them are essentially zero.

The industry claims, not entirely unreasonably, that any disruption to their operation would put them out of business.
Hence why lots of projects are not considered practical because they would require disruption to freight operations (Metrolink conversion of the Atherton line for example).

For my part I'd prefer to take the losses, but to people who believe in the importance of rail freight its a very important concern.

 

[Starmill]

What freight flows are so urgent that they can't be scheduled to pass through Colwich two hours earlier or two hours later?

Nearly all of it? That's how supply chain logistics work. Certainly there's no doubt that containers are time-critical as the times they run are dictated by the shipping line and port operator. If the train is late the vessel won't wait...

 

[HSTEd]

Agree. I think you could get up to 6tph x400m to Curzon Street in the evening, if the demand was there and if the season ticket prices were low enough. You could run it as a turn-up-and-go service off a single platform at Euston, with 10-minute turnaround times. But I bet that the passenger circulation space at the revised Euston will not be designed to handle that sort of flow. And you would want to keep the opposite platform empty as a spare.

People on that train are unlikely to have much baggage so if they select the right platform (based on the detailed layouts that I haven't seen) then I think it could be made workable.

It would probably also allow some sort of deal with coach companies analogous to that scheme where Megabus would put people onto Stagecoach trains at East midlands parkway.
Offer extremely cheap tickets from Birmingham International into London off peak, possibly in connection with coach operators. Then use the peak trains to swallow up a portion of the outer suburban operation on West MIdlands Trains.

 

[JonathanH]

Agree. I think you could get up to 6tph x400m to Curzon Street in the evening, if the demand was there and if the season ticket prices were low enough. You could run it as a turn-up-and-go service off a single platform at Euston, with 10-minute turnaround times.

Is promoting long distance commuting on HS2 really a good idea, particularly at a low price?

It would be a big risk for someone to base themselves in Birmingham to commute to London on a frequent basis that prices increased dramatically at the whim of whoever sets them.

Building too big a market on the Birmingham to London flow would also preclude using the paths at a future point if it ever transpired that more destinations were to be added to the network, although perhaps now the chances of that are miniscule.

 

[HSTEd]

Is promoting long distance commuting on HS2 really a good idea, particularly at a low price?

Well if its a choice between empty trains or empty paths and cheap fare commuters, I will take the latter every time.
The breakeven fare for a seat from Birmingham Curzon Street or International into London will be very low indeed.

Building too big a market on the Birmingham to London flow would also preclude using the paths at a future point if it ever transpired that more destinations were to be added to the network, although perhaps now the chances of that are miniscule.

If we manage to saturate HS2's core at this point it will be a miracle, it is likely it would materially change the modal share of rail by itself. In that situation asking for more capacity will be comparatively easy.

 

[Nottingham59]

Is promoting long distance commuting on HS2 really a good idea, particularly at a low price?

It's no further than, say, Grantham.

And at only 45 minutes, Curzon St is much closer than Brighton (60m) and about the same as Milton Keynes (40mins). Even closer if you work in West London.