Jersey and Guernsey rail tunnel

[Chester1]

If the Jersey had many billions to spend on improving affordability for its residents would it really spend it on a tunnel? High speed catamarans or hovercraft would require subsidy.

Lets not forget three years ago a French minister threatened to cut the electricity interconnector to Jersey in response to the Jersey government using brexit as an opportunity to slightly reduce fishing licences. Building their economic model on commuters from France seems a needless risk.

They have four options:

1) Do nothing - cost of living crisis gets worse
2) build on greenfields - very unpopular
3) build up - unpopular
4) build out - unpopular

3) and 4) works in Gibraltar because all the flats in government run reclaimation projects or brownfield redevelopment are sold at or below build cost to long term residents. One of the current construction projects is four tower blocks of 20-30 floors that don't fit well with neighbouring blocks. Despite that its very popular politically because everyone knows couples and young families who have got onto the property ladder because of it. Offer 3 bedroom flats to local families at £180-200k and NIMBYs won't be popular.

 

[AlastairFraser]

They have four options:

1) Do nothing - cost of living crisis gets worse
2) build on greenfields - very unpopular
3) build up - unpopular
4) build out - unpopular

3) and 4) works in Gibraltar because all the flats in government run reclaimation projects or brownfield redevelopment are sold at or below build cost to long term residents. One of the current construction projects is four tower blocks of 20-30 floors that don't fit well with neighbouring blocks. Despite that its very popular politically because everyone knows couples and young families who have got onto the property ladder because of it. Offer 3 bedroom flats to local families at £180-200k and NIMBYs won't be popular.

The problem with Jersey is that the settled residents are usually better off, it's more the Polish/Portuguese minorities who are mostly newcomers who would need affordable housing more.
Some more medium density housing may be possible, but I don't think anything larger than that would be palatable politically.

 

[Chester1]

The problem with Jersey is that the settled residents are usually better off, it's more the Polish/Portuguese minorities who are mostly newcomers who would need affordable housing more.
Some more medium density housing may be possible, but I don't think anything larger than that would be palatable politically.

Doesn't that undermine support for a fixed link too?

 

[AlastairFraser]

Doesn't that undermine support for a fixed link too?

No, because it suppresses cost of living, in turn wages and therefore costs for residents of the islands.

 

[Chester1]

No, because it suppresses cost of living, in turn wages and therefore costs for residents of the islands.

So would building more affordable housing. It sounds like the tunnel lacks broad support from politicians for good reasons. Its a solution looking for a problem. I find it hard to believe that there aren't cheaper ways for an island of 80,000 people to deal with a cost of living crisis than a £10bn tunnel.

 

[AlastairFraser]

So would building more affordable housing. It sounds like the tunnel lacks broad support from politicians for good reasons. Its a solution looking for a problem. I find it hard to believe that there aren't cheaper ways for an island of 80,000 people to deal with a cost of living crisis than a £10bn tunnel.

It's less about the current cost of living and more protecting the current high standard of living of established islanders, by facilitating French workers to commute in.

 

[Chester1]

It's less about the current cost of living and more protecting the current high standard of living of established islanders, by facilitating French workers to commute in.

It would make Jersey completely economically reliant on France while having to pay back an enormous debt. If Jersey became reliant on 20,000 people arriving from Normandy each day it would be on no position to say no the French government. Its no wonder its political support is limited.

 

[AlastairFraser]

It would make Jersey completely economically reliant on France while having to pay back an enormous debt. If Jersey became reliant on 20,000 people arriving from Normandy each day it would be on no position to say no the French government. Its no wonder its political support is limited.

It wouldn't necessarily be an enormous debt, if they made contributions from their large reserves. It would take probably at least 50 years to pay back, but the island needs something to economically stabilise after the predictable decline in the CI's future as tax havens.

The need to be reliant on France in this case is a partial consequence of non-EU membership, the European Commission would be a moderating influence on relations if both nations considered membership.
EU or perhaps EFTA membership wouldn't necessarily mean the end of the Common Travel Area either, as Ireland's membership has shown; while it would likely necessitate customs union membership, this is likely beneficial to the residents as importing would be significantly easier for a lot of products.

 

[Chester1]

It wouldn't necessarily be an enormous debt, if they made contributions from their large reserves. It would take probably at least 50 years to pay back, but the island needs something to economically stabilise after the predictable decline in the CI's future as tax havens.

The need to be reliant on France in this case is a partial consequence of non-EU membership, the European Commission would be a moderating influence on relations if both nations considered membership.
EU or perhaps EFTA membership wouldn't necessarily mean the end of the Common Travel Area either, as Ireland's membership has shown; while it would likely necessitate customs union membership, this is likely beneficial to the residents as importing would be significantly easier for a lot of products.

It would be rather strange if Jersey and Guernsey wished to join the EU after avoiding it while the UK was a member! All the Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories had the opportunity to join and only Gibraltar chose to.

 

[AlastairFraser]

It would be rather strange if Jersey and Guernsey wished to join the EU after avoiding it while the UK was a member! All the Crown Dependencies and Overseas Territories had the opportunity to join and only Gibraltar chose to.

Well, a large part of their economy is gradually drying up as the loopholes they use to facilitate tax evasion close, so it may be the prudent financial choice in future.