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Will never happen. There will always be a need for a few diesel locos, even after electrification spreads further. And batteries will never have sufficient capacity to work some of the heaviest / longest workings. The Class 66 successors, built 2045 onwards may last until about 2100.
It might be a DMU. There's likely a passenger route that is never going to be electrified and will be run with cascaded diesels as electric and bi-mode stock displaces them from other routes. There's likely a stronger financial case for freight operators moving to bi-mode than there is for DfT eliminating diesels from passenger franchises.
It might be a DMU. There's likely a passenger route that is never going to be electrified and will be run with cascaded diesels as electric and bi-mode stock displaces them from other routes. There's likely a stronger financial case for freight operators moving to bi-mode than there is for DfT eliminating diesels from passenger franchises.
Yes, I was interested mainly in locos for this thread. From replies so far, opinion is maybe the last diesel loco will be one of the final build 66s, although post #8 is interesting as I'd not considered the class 43s on the measurement train.
Yes, I was interested mainly in locos for this thread. From replies so far, opinion is maybe the last diesel loco will be one of the final build 66s, although post #8 is interesting as I'd not considered the class 43s on the measurement train.
I suspect the Class 43 will be replaced before the 66 - the Measurement equipment could be refitted into a spare 80X. The key question will be maintaining a sufficiently large pool of locomotives for the final examples to draw spares from. Class 43s are already in that stage, and it will become increasingly uneconomic to maintain the final ones as the supply dwindles. Meanwhile there are loads of Class 66's, and they are still in full service so parts are unlikely to be an issue for a while.
The 37s have hung on because there were lots of them so spares could be banked up and they perform a specialised role that is harder for the 66s to replace them on (low RA).
To answer this properly you have to think in terms of what has the greatest repairability, both in terms of spares availability and simple basic robustness of design. In which case it has to be the 66, with its simple sole-bar modular design where bits can be easily swapped and replaced, and with large scale global availability of diesels and electricals. No messing around with monocoque or space-frame bodies making parts swapping difficult, or body repairs expensive. Broken bits can be just lifted off and replaced.
You should be able to get 40-50+ years out of the 66 fleet - as long as pollution regs don't stop them
Will never happen. There will always be a need for a few diesel locos, even after electrification spreads further. And batteries will never have sufficient capacity to work some of the heaviest / longest workings. The Class 66 successors, built 2045 onwards may last until about 2100.
That's a strong claim to say batteries will never have sufficient capacity. There must 100's of millions being spent annually on battery research and no one know what's around the corner.
The OP's question was Straight Diesal. I think it's battery cost and 20ft of space lost that inhibits a battery unit from being put into a 20ft container to power a Hybrid Diesal loco a fair old distance I immagne on an intermodal. The 20ft can also be swapped out for a fully charged one at the other end too easily.
Same prime mover as class 66 everything is new other than refurbished frame, body and bogies (Alternators new?).
Still being built too.
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That's a strong claim to say batteries will never have sufficient capacity. There must 100's of millions being spent annually on battery research and no one know what's around the corner.
The OP's question was Straight Diesal. I think it's battery cost and 20ft of space lost that inhibits a battery unit from being put into a 20ft container to power a Hybrid Diesal loco a fair old distance I immagne on an intermodal. The 20ft can also be swapped out for a fully charged one at the other end too easily.
Battery capacity is limited by chemistry. We have not yet reached that limit, but once the limit due to chemistry has been reached, the only way to increase capacity will be to include more battery cells.
Battery capacity is limited by chemistry. We have not yet reached that limit, but once the limit due to chemistry has been reached, the only way to increase capacity will be to include more battery cells.
Will never happen. There will always be a need for a few diesel locos, even after electrification spreads further. And batteries will never have sufficient capacity to work some of the heaviest / longest workings. The Class 66 successors, built 2045 onwards may last until about 2100.
This point always amuses me, railways are fabulously efficient, but batteries don't have enough capacity for rail vehicles despite it being possible to drive anywhere in the UK with an electric car!
Even with todays technology we could pack a 60 tonne freight wagon with 9MWhr of storage and plug it into the loco, just keep adding cars until you have enough range to get between electrification with whatever load you need to move. That 9 MWhr of battery pack would cost about $1 million at the prices that car makers currently pay.
The last steam locos were good to last to the 80/90's, it's perfectly feasible that everything diesel is gone in about 20 years, the government action is just to set a phase out date once options have been proven to be feasible.
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Battery capacity is limited by chemistry. We have not yet reached that limit, but once the limit due to chemistry has been reached, the only way to increase capacity will be to include more battery cells.
1: As stated above you can get 9MWh onto a 60 tonne payload wagon with current 5,000 cycle LFP batteries used in value BEVs. Just add enough wagons until you have enough range, then look at a few places where you could install intermittent electrification cheaply and look at putting wires into certain destinations.
2: The chemistry limits for Lithium Sulphur are about 10X the energy density we currently have, however as I alluded to in point 1, trains care more about battery cost and cycle life than they do about energy density. There are no fundamental limitations on cycle life.
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