I suspect that the wholesale replacement of third rail would be something which isn't likely.
BMU's change the picture for replacement a bit. For example IF there was a plan to replace Basingstoke to Southampton (and to wire up to Salisbury from Basingstoke and Southampton) you could potentially put in a (say) 500m gap in the electrification between Basingstoke and Hook as well as where the lines from Eastleigh and St Denys cross the Itchen and again just west of Redbridge. In doing so you remove the complex overlap issues, the distances involved would be short enough that a fairly limited battery would cope with moving the train from a stand 1cm off the point of the last electric pick up to 2km beyond the start of the next.
Such a battery key also aid with extra services to Weymouth or not having to limit acceleration in very busy areas and other issues with the third rail.
What you might be able to sell to the ORR is a compromise where for every 3km of third rail removed from the network 1km of new could be added (i.e. overall the risk would be reduced from the do nothing option).
Given the limited supply on third rail, the use of BMU's for long distance travel beyond the extent of the third rail might not be as straightforward as it is with OHLE where it doesn't have the same power draw issues that third rail has. Not unless the battery has had a lot of time to charge up.
BMU's change the picture for replacement a bit. For example IF there was a plan to replace Basingstoke to Southampton (and to wire up to Salisbury from Basingstoke and Southampton) you could potentially put in a (say) 500m gap in the electrification between Basingstoke and Hook as well as where the lines from Eastleigh and St Denys cross the Itchen and again just west of Redbridge. In doing so you remove the complex overlap issues, the distances involved would be short enough that a fairly limited battery would cope with moving the train from a stand 1cm off the point of the last electric pick up to 2km beyond the start of the next.
Such a battery key also aid with extra services to Weymouth or not having to limit acceleration in very busy areas and other issues with the third rail.
What you might be able to sell to the ORR is a compromise where for every 3km of third rail removed from the network 1km of new could be added (i.e. overall the risk would be reduced from the do nothing option).
Given the limited supply on third rail, the use of BMU's for long distance travel beyond the extent of the third rail might not be as straightforward as it is with OHLE where it doesn't have the same power draw issues that third rail has. Not unless the battery has had a lot of time to charge up.