Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[Typhoon]

Keir Starmer will be celebrating tonight.
Reform UK's policies make Liz Truss's policies look sensible, but they'll eat into the Conservative vote in so many ways and in so many places to the benefit of Labour and LibDem.
He'll be ordering the champagne for the Wellingborough by-election, when is that exactly? (EDIT Not yet determined, to answer my own question.)
The only thing Starmer needs to do is to take out a hit on Nigel Farage to prevent him from coming back again, mind you he might get help from Rishi Sunak to do this.

I'm not convinced he would want to take second place to Tice. I reckon that Farage will hold off from a return to electioneering to see how Reform do. He has a lot to lose if it turns out to be a false dawn. So far seven contests, seven losses. He'll still be in the spotlight with his election coverage, which will be quoted in the media. If Reform finish a distant third (or worse) he has lost nothing. If they are on the way up, there will be by-elections to contest, when he will have his place in the sun.

 

[birchesgreen]

I don't trust Reform not to do what the Brexit Party did in the last GE to be honest. Starmer best keep the champagne on ice.

 

[The Ham]

I don't trust Reform not to do what the Brexit Party did in the last GE to be honest. Starmer best keep the champagne on ice.

I do wonder if there's a lot of Labour "support" of Reform, just so that it eats further into the Tory vote.

Things like sharing stuff on social media (especially local pages groups) so that there a good presence (it would also make Reform think twice about withdrawing candidates).

 

[Richard Scott]

I do wonder if there's a lot of Labour "support" of Reform, just so that it eats further into the Tory vote.

Things like sharing stuff on social media (especially local pages groups) so that there a good presence (it would also make Reform think twice about withdrawing candidates).

Well if they do then they're daft. This is why we ended up with a Boris Brexit. Ok, so fact had the vote in the first place and it backfired on Cameron wasn't helpful but all Labour MPs voting against May's Brexit plan meant we ended up with something worse (in my opinion).
Tactical voting is best avoided where Reform and its like are around otherwise you may well end up getting more than you bargained for.

 

[The Ham]

Well if they do then they're daft. This is why we ended up with a Boris Brexit. Ok, so fact had the vote in the first place and it backfired on Cameron wasn't helpful but all Labour MPs voting against May's Brexit plan meant we ended up with something worse (in my opinion).
Tactical voting is best avoided where Reform and its like are around otherwise you may well end up getting more than you bargained for.

Perhaps I want clear, I meant support in spread the message rather than actually vote for them.

By making it look like there's more support than there actually is it may encourage Reform to put up candidates in more places (especially existing Tory seats) so that the Tory vote is split, allowing another party to gain the seat.

The more other parties there are which are going for the Tory wing if the electrocute, the better it is for those from the non Tory wing to vote for whoever is most likely to win who's not pandering to those voters. If the Tory vote is 35% and is split so 5% vote for Reform whilst the 50% who would normally support Labour, Greens and Lib Dems manage to get one of those three parties to 34% then they're going to win.

 

[brad465]

I don't trust Reform not to do what the Brexit Party did in the last GE to be honest. Starmer best keep the champagne on ice.

I suspect Reform will resort to making a pact if they cannot find enough candidates to contest every seat. They might be able to find 600-650 members who could stand, but they want to avoid some absolute nutters (and yes, it is possible to go lower than the lowest MPs/candidates right now) who if they stood and spoke their mind would do more harm than good.

 

[jon0844]

Hasn't Reform just run an ad suggesting Sunak is a socialist? I guess the Tories will be called communists by the time the election is called.

Their base will totally buy it, like MAGA has with assuming Joe Biden is a communist, although here it would be more like calling the Republican party communists and setting up an even further right party.

 

[Acfb]

I don't think support for Reform is real TBH unlike for UKIP and the Brexit Party in 2015 and 2019. They only have six elected councillors in Derby (excluding defections) and have only narrowly held their deposit in two by elections. Tamworth and Old Bexley and Sidcup should have been really favourable ground for Reform. UKIP got 18% in those constituencies in the 2015 GE.

I think they are being inflated by online polls and will be astonished if they get more than 4%.

The Tories are in trouble but I suspect a lot of their 2019 voters will just stay at home rather than switch to a phantom party (not ruling out a serious partial recovery in Tory support either).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I don't think support for Reform is real TBH unlike for UKIP and the Brexit Party in 2015 and 2019. They only have six elected councillors in Derby (excluding defections) and have only narrowly held their deposit in two by elections. Tamworth and Old Bexley and Sidcup should have been really favourable ground for Reform. UKIP got 18% in those constituencies in the 2015 GE.

I think they are being inflated by online polls and will be astonished if they get more than 4%.

I'm inclined to think you're correct. Reform have no real presence anywhere - few councillors, no mass-membership to get on the doorsteps in the election, etc. Add in that minor parties will get squeezed when people are in the polling booth and are deciding who they want to be their Government. I can't see them doing nearly as well as the polls seem to be showing.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jan 2024 ==

Keir Starmer will be celebrating tonight.
Reform UK's policies make Liz Truss's policies look sensible, but they'll eat into the Conservative vote in so many ways and in so many places to the benefit of Labour and LibDem.
He'll be ordering the champagne for the Wellingborough by-election, when is that exactly? (EDIT Not yet determined, to answer my own question.)
The only thing Starmer needs to do is to take out a hit on Nigel Farage to prevent him from coming back again, mind you he might get help from Rishi Sunak to do this.

I'm not convinced that Reform will on balance hurt the Tories. Even aside from my doubts about how many votes they'll actually get, people seem to be assuming that they'll attract mostly Tory votes because they are right-wing/pro-Brexit. But I can see Reform taking votes away from Labour as well as the Tories: Remember, a lot of people vote on general impression, not on policies. And in particular there are a lot of normally-Tory voters who right now are going to vote anything-but-Tory just because they are so angry with all the incompetence/etc. Some of those voters are likely to hold their noses and vote Labour if they see no alternative, but will gladly vote Reform instead, if they are able to. I think Reform could take votes equally from Labour and the Tories (and if Richard Tice has privately made the same calculation, that may go some way to explaining why he's happy to stand in every seat).

 

[telstarbox]

Conversely there were lots of Brexit backing voters who really like the NHS and the welfare state (hence that famous promise on the side of a bus and the "40 new hospitals" in 2019). It's hard for Reform to convert those people into libertarian or hard right voters.

 

[Typhoon]

I think Reform could take votes equally from Labour and the Tories (and if Richard Tice has privately made the same calculation, that may go some way to explaining why he's happy to stand in every seat).

I would have thought that ...

that may go some way to explaining why he's happy to say that they will stand in every seat).

... is more likely.

They will need to vet each and every one carefully. For much of the printed press, their preference, I suspect, is still Conservative, then Reform, ......., Labour/ Lib Dem/ Green/ SNP bringing up the rear. If a Reform candidate, up against a sitting Tory who is on the right of the party, has anything dubious in their past, the papers will call it out because if they don't, then they can be sure that the likes of the Mirror wil,l and gloat on it! And are they really going to ensure they have a candidate in, say, Argyll & Bute, or Ross, Skye & Lochaber, or Dwyfor Meirionnydd. They might get local publicity, but that is it. If they have the right person, that is OK, but some bumbler, not from the area, who they cannot guarantee would stay 'on message' could do more harm than good - 'Top Reform Candidate says ...'

​

 

[Yew]

Keir Starmer will be celebrating tonight.
Reform UK's policies make Liz Truss's policies look sensible, but they'll eat into the Conservative vote in so many ways and in so many places to the benefit of Labour and LibDem.
He'll be ordering the champagne for the Wellingborough by-election, when is that exactly? (EDIT Not yet determined, to answer my own question.)
The only thing Starmer needs to do is to take out a hit on Nigel Farage to prevent him from coming back again, mind you he might get help from Rishi Sunak to do this.

My worry is that after a decade of the Tories blaming all our woes on Labour and Immigration, there is a simple easy message of "The Tories still haven't sorted immigration, and look how bad things are now".

 

[sor]

after the rather positive messaging from Starmer's speech this morning, it seems Sunak is going for the opposite - he wants to cling on to the very end and is claiming he will hold an election in the autumn.

I look forward to the relentless accusations of "bottling it". A waste of money too given that the bulk of the UK has elections in May anyway, and that was mandated until the Fixed Term Parliaments Act was repealed

 

[JamesT]

after the rather positive messaging from Starmer's speech this morning, it seems Sunak is going for the opposite - he wants to cling on to the very end and is claiming he will hold an election in the autumn.

I look forward to the relentless accusations of "bottling it". A waste of money too given that the bulk of the UK has elections in May anyway, and that was mandated until the Fixed Term Parliaments Act was repealed

There were three general elections during the period the FTPA was active. Only one of which (2015) occurred on the date specified by the act. It was a pretty pointless piece of legislation.

 

[sor]

There were three general elections during the period the FTPA was active. Only one of which (2015) occurred on the date specified by the act. It was a pretty pointless piece of legislation.

not terribly relevant to my point, however:

it did the job that it needed to do - stop the tories dissolving the coalition and holding an election as soon as the polls improved - and it would have provided a large degree of certainty in this case as everyone can plan to a clearly defined date.

my point was that the FTPA required an election in May if one was not triggered sooner. The tories repealed that only a couple of years ago and now Sunak wants to use the extra time that they weren't really "given" at the ballot box.

 

[nw1]

not terribly relevant to my point, however:

it did the job that it needed to do - stop the tories dissolving the coalition and holding an election as soon as the polls improved - and it would have provided a large degree of certainty in this case as everyone can plan to a clearly defined date.

my point was that the FTPA required an election in May if one was not triggered sooner. The tories repealed that only a couple of years ago and now Sunak wants to use the extra time that they weren't really "given" at the ballot box.

There really has never been a better time for the phrase "for heaven's sake, go".

There is nothing to be gained for the country from Sunak holding on another five months.

He is completely and utterly incompetent and appears to be doing not one positive thing for the country.

Every day he's in is another day in which we have a government which is doing nothing for the country's problems.

Counter-productive too, as Sunak's arrogance and egotism in holding on until the last moment will I suspect turn voters away from him.

Still at least the autumn is better than this time next year, and holding an election in the rain, gales and snow of mid-winter and darkness falling shortly after 4pm. Not to mention the absurdity of a Christmas campaigning period.

 

[Gloster]

I wonder if we are going to see a snap election around the beginning of April. The budget on 6 March could be full of short-term unsustainable giveaways, the weather will be beginning to get better and fuel bills will be starting to fall (even if that will only just be starting to happen), it will be before the local elections on 2 May, when the Conservatives may get an embarrassing drubbing, and less time for the world to go haywire and show how insignificant we are on the world stage. Sunak saying that he is looking to an election in the second half of the year could be intended to deliberately mislead or it could be that he doesn’t know what he is going to do. And it is not a promise, so he won’t have broken one.

 

[dangie]

I think anyone who thought there maybe would be a Spring election is living in cloud cuckoo land. Sunak is hardly going to willingly put himself and his other MP’s out of a job. He is clinging on, hoping for a miracle.

 

[nw1]

I think anyone who thought there maybe would be a Spring election is living in cloud cuckoo land. Sunak is hardly going to willingly put himself and his other MP’s out of a job. He is clinging on, hoping for a miracle.

Except I don't really see the point of just extending their jobs for a mere 5 months.

As I said, the arrogance of holding on will turn people against him. Floating voters will just be turned off by his arrogance, egotism and cowardice.

In another thread I predicted a majority of 80 for Labour but I'll say lower for a spring election and higher for an autumn election.

The spring is the best chance for the Tories to avoid a humiliating defeat. Not to mention to speed up the regrouping process to move them back towards the centre again and to give them a chance to win again in 4-5 years.

 

[Richard Scott]

There really has never been a better time for the phrase "for heaven's sake, go".

There is nothing to be gained for the country from Sunak holding on another five months.

He is completely and utterly incompetent and appears to be doing not one positive thing for the country.

Every day he's in is another day in which we have a government which is doing nothing for the country's problems.

Counter-productive too, as Sunak's arrogance and egotism in holding on until the last moment will I suspect turn voters away from him.

Still at least the autumn is better than this time next year, and holding an election in the rain, gales and snow of mid-winter and darkness falling shortly after 4pm. Not to mention the absurdity of a Christmas campaigning period.

The real problem is, despite what's said, I can't see Starmer being any better.
There's no-one in British politics that I can see has any presence and ability to lead.

 

[HSTEd]

In another thread I predicted a majority of 80 for Labour but I'll say lower for a spring election and higher for an autumn election.

Governments do traditionally get more popular over the summer, although I am not sure if that still holds today.

 

[Acfb]

Except I don't really see the point of just extending their jobs for a mere 5 months.

As I said, the arrogance of holding on will turn people against him. Floating voters will just be turned off by his arrogance, egotism and cowardice.

In another thread I predicted a majority of 80 for Labour but I'll say lower for a spring election and higher for an autumn election.

The spring is the best chance for the Tories to avoid a humiliating defeat. Not to mention to speed up the regrouping process to move them back towards the centre again and to give them a chance to win again in 4-5 years.

At least Sunak has ruled out a May election. Probably a mistake for the Tories I think as they will lose a lot more councillors in May in both the blue wall and the red wall. A relief for the Lib dems as well as a May election would have probably stopped their momentum. The Tories will lose all their remaining councillors in some councils that elect by thirds such as Woking and will find it difficult to rebuild even if Starmer struggles.

I can understand why he wants to be PM for two years though.

 

[birchesgreen]

If Sunak has ruled out a May election then that makes one a raging certainty...

 

[brad465]

If Sunak has ruled out a May election then that makes one a raging certainty...

This, I also suspect that the NI tax cut effects work best when there is a May election. They could create a bounce for a few months from this taking effect, but by May if things haven't improved in general any bounce will end. I also believe the income tax band freezing means the tax cut is cancelled out in the new financial year.

 

[oldman]

The real problem is, despite what's said, I can't see Starmer being any better.
There's no-one in British politics that I can see has any presence and ability to lead.

He will be better by virtue of not being the leader of the Tory party. It is not an article of faith for him that policy should always favour the rich and that public services are intrinsically a bad thing. And bear in mind that Sunak is a moderate Tory.

He may not have 'presence' and Tory stooges will make a big deal of this, and we won't know whether he has leadership ability until put to the test, like any prime minister.

 

[Richard Scott]

He will be better by virtue of not being the leader of the Tory party. It is not an article of faith for him that policy should always favour the rich and that public services are intrinsically a bad thing. And bear in mind that Sunak is a moderate Tory.

He may not have 'presence' and Tory stooges will make a big deal of this, and we won't know whether he has leadership ability until put to the test, like any prime minister.

But 'by not being leader of the Tory party' isn't being better.
If that's all he can manage then afraid that's not a positive thing.

 

[sor]

But 'by not being leader of the Tory party' isn't being better.
If that's all he can manage then afraid that's not a positive thing.

we don't have a presidential system. There's an entire party and (shadow) cabinet behind him. We will at least get a change of ideology and hopefully some fresh ideas, instead of ever reheated nonsense the Tories have been delivering since 2016.

like adult approaches to our relationship with Europe or the migrant issue - or given this forum - a future of our railways that isn't just a bit of tinkering around the edges

 

[Richard Scott]

we don't have a presidential system. There's an entire party and (shadow) cabinet behind him. We will at least get a change of ideology and hopefully some fresh ideas, instead of ever reheated nonsense the Tories have been delivering since 2016.

like adult approaches to our relationship with Europe or the migrant issue - or given this forum - a future of our railways that isn't just a bit of tinkering around the edges

I appreciate that but PM still has a reasonable influence, after all they choose their cabinet?
Based on previous approaches by Labour on railways I wouldn't hold your breath however relationship with Europe may be a positive improvement.

 

[nw1]

At least Sunak has ruled out a May election. Probably a mistake for the Tories I think as they will lose a lot more councillors in May in both the blue wall and the red wall. A relief for the Lib dems as well as a May election would have probably stopped their momentum. The Tories will lose all their remaining councillors in some councils that elect by thirds such as Woking and will find it difficult to rebuild even if Starmer struggles.

I can understand why he wants to be PM for two years though.

Has he ruled one out though? I thought (as discussed above) he was saying that it's likely there'll be an October election, or similar. A May election is possible, even likely (as others have said) if he's deliberately trying to fool the opposition.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Jan 2024 ==

He will be better by virtue of not being the leader of the Tory party. It is not an article of faith for him that policy should always favour the rich and that public services are intrinsically a bad thing. And bear in mind that Sunak is a moderate Tory.

He may not have 'presence' and Tory stooges will make a big deal of this, and we won't know whether he has leadership ability until put to the test, like any prime minister.

But does Sunak have presence though? In my opinion the answer is a firm "no".

 

[najaB]

Has he ruled one out though?

Nope. He's said (paraphrasing) that he doesn't expect a May election. But when pressed as to if it was definitely off the table he declined to answer.