Overcrowding on Chiltern Line: How can this be resolved?

[MarkWi72]

During the last three Fridays in November and the first ones in December, the 10am from Dorridge to Marylebone has been badly overcrowded. Once at Leamington Spa, it is standing room only. Just a 3 car set. Surely they could add another DMU? What is the barrier to this? Lack of a crew getting the extra stock, or issues with rolling stock/fuel?

I hope this gets resolved.

 

[Bletchleyite]

During the last three Fridays in November and the first ones in December, the 10am from Dorridge to Marylebone has been badly overcrowded. Once at Leamington Spa, it is standing room only. Just a 3 car set. Surely they could add another DMU? What is the barrier to this? Lack of a crew getting the extra stock, or issues with rolling stock/fuel?

I hope this gets resolved.

Shortage of rolling stock - the shoulder peak tends to be short trains as it's all gone into London with the commuters.

I don't think Chiltern runs different diagrams M-Th vs Fri, which they could perhaps consider given how Friday is more of a leisure day now?

 

[Sunil_P]

I think Marylebone has the shortest-length (on average) main line departures from any London terminus.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think Marylebone has the shortest-length (on average) main line departures from any London terminus.

Largely because it's fairly quiet compared with the others.

 

[philosopher]

During the last three Fridays in November and the first ones in December, the 10am from Dorridge to Marylebone has been badly overcrowded. Once at Leamington Spa, it is standing room only. Just a 3 car set. Surely they could add another DMU? What is the barrier to this? Lack of a crew getting the extra stock, or issues with rolling stock/fuel?

I hope this gets resolved.

I have used this train a few times, usually on Monday. Typically it does get busy, with the vast majority of seats occupied by London, but I have not seen passengers standing. This train is the first super off peak train, which is probably why it is busy. When I have used, it either had four or five carriages.

The train after, which I used once was very quiet when I used it, but I am not sure how typical that is.

 

[RPM]

During the last three Fridays in November and the first ones in December, the 10am from Dorridge to Marylebone has been badly overcrowded. Once at Leamington Spa, it is standing room only. Just a 3 car set. Surely they could add another DMU? What is the barrier to this? Lack of a crew getting the extra stock, or issues with rolling stock/fuel?

I hope this gets resolved.

The barrier is called the Department for Transport.

 

[Bald Rick]

What is the barrier to this?

Fares regulation

 

[Bletchleyite]

Fares regulation

Most Chiltern leisure fares (which are what is causing the overcrowding) are not regulated. As a commuter operator the regulated fares are the seasons and Anytime Day Returns.

 

[MarkWi72]

I have used this train a few times, usually on Monday. Typically it does get busy, with the vast majority of seats occupied by London, but I have not seen passengers standing. This train is the first super off peak train, which is probably why it is busy. When I have used, it either had four or five carriages.

The train after, which I used once was very quiet when I used it, but I am not sure how typical that is.

Yes, I wondered if it was because it is the first Super Off Peak train. As well as lack of Investment from DoT.

 

[Bald Rick]

Most Chiltern leisure fares (which are what is causing the overcrowding) are not regulated. As a commuter operator the regulated fares are the seasons and Anytime Day Returns.

And super off peak returns…

 

[XCTurbostar]

I don't suppose it helps that the 68+mk3s are not nearly used enough..

 

[JonathanH]

I don't suppose it helps that the 68+mk3s are not nearly used enough..

They can't be used on a service from Birmingham at just before 10am, because that is when they are at the London end.

 

[sammyg901]

Having been back on Chiltern for a couple of years now I actually think until they can get more stock they need to stop serving stations Chalfort & Latimer to Marylebone inclusive as well as some other inner London calls e.g. Northolt Park. This would allow a reduction in via Amersham services at peak times, shorter trains to run off peak/weekends and potentially allow cancelling the West Ruislip peak time short workings, freeing up that stock to strengthen other trains. Based on my observations the Metropolitan and Central lines just are not as busy as they used to be pre covid and could absorb the demand.

They also need to stop selling Advances Birmingham-London except on the quiestest contra flow trains and make sure they're not especially competitive vs the other options so they can leave the capacity for the intermediate stations.

As I've mentioned elsewhere, I live near Bicester now and our fast service is predominantly Birmingham services. But I very rarely use them as they're often reported full and standing by Banbury or even before, especially on a Saturday morning

 

[Bletchleyite]

And super off peak returns…

Which ones would be regulated? The "route High Wycombe" London-West Midlands fares were introduced commercially to undercut Virgin Trains (as was) - before privatisation the Any Permitted Saver (now Off Peak) fare would have been applicable whichever way you chose to go.

If these have been retrospectively added to fares regulation then that is a bit odd - are there any other examples of that happening?

One could certainly say that withdrawing these routed fares would solve off-peak overcrowding on Chiltern, though it would probably have the adverse effect of causing more severe overcrowding on West Midlands Trains' LNR branded services, as most would switch to them rather than pay much more for Avanti.

 

[Bald Rick]

Which ones would be regulated? The "route High Wycombe" London-West Midlands fares were introduced commercially to undercut Virgin Trains (as was) - before privatisation the Any Permitted Saver (now Off Peak) fare would have been applicable whichever way you chose to go.

If these have been retrospectively added to fares regulation then that is a bit odd - are there any other examples of that happening?

One could certainly say that withdrawing these routed fares would solve off-peak overcrowding on Chiltern, though it would probably have the adverse effect of causing more severe overcrowding on West Midlands Trains' LNR branded services, as most would switch to them rather than pay much more for Avanti.

I am by no means a fare expert, but having a ‘routed‘ fare doesn’t mean it is not subject to regulation.

 

[Wolfie]

The barrier is called the Department for Transport.

You forgot His Majesty's Treasury.....

 

[Bletchleyite]

I am by no means a fare expert, but having a ‘routed‘ fare doesn’t mean it is not subject to regulation.

It doesn't, but these fares were specifically introduced by Chiltern as competition for the WCML. I don't know why they aren't routed Chiltern Only, I think it's just because they were an early example when this sort of thing was still being worked out.

What would be unusual would be this sort of fare becoming regulated. The regulated fare from London to Birmingham and most of the West Midlands is the Any Permitted Off Peak Return which is the former Saver. Do you have evidence that the deep-discount Route High Wycombe fares have become regulated? If so when did this occur and why?

It might be that there are some longer intra-Chiltern ones which are regulated, but these aren't driving the overcrowding, it's people actually going between London and Birmingham because Avanti is expensive walk-up.

 

[Watershed]

It doesn't, but these fares were specifically introduced by Chiltern as competition for the WCML. I don't know why they aren't routed Chiltern Only, I think it's just because they were an early example when this sort of thing was still being worked out.

What would be unusual would be this sort of fare becoming regulated. The regulated fare from London to Birmingham and most of the West Midlands is the Any Permitted Off Peak Return which is the former Saver. Do you have evidence that the deep-discount Route High Wycombe fares have become regulated? If so when did this occur and why?

It might be that there are some longer intra-Chiltern ones which are regulated, but these aren't driving the overcrowding, it's people actually going between London and Birmingham because Avanti is expensive walk-up.

There's a list of regulated flows in this FoI response. I haven't had a chance to look through it but this would answer the question one way or another.

If I had to guess I'd say that the "via High Wycombe" fares from the West Midlands county and beyond generally won't be regulated, but the "via Banbury" fares from Leamington will be.

Either way, fares regulation is not the problem here since I have little doubt the DfT would give Chiltern permission to withdraw the fares if they asked. Even working within the limitations of fares regulation, Chiltern could impose much heavier time restrictions if they so desired - in line with what GWR have done for many of their regulated Super Off-Peak Returns, which only become valid from 10:30.

In any event, the sane answer to overcrowding isn't to price people off the railway. It's to provide more capacity, or (perish the thought) easing peak restrictions or offering cheaper Advance fares on quieter services to spread demand. Sadly such common sense is lacking in Britain; the only metrics used for these sorts of decisions are political and financial.

 

[philosopher]

It might be that there are some longer intra-Chiltern ones which are regulated, but these aren't driving the overcrowding, it's people actually going between London and Birmingham because Avanti is expensive walk-up.

Avanti‘s advance fares seem to be considerably more expensive than they were a few years ago on the West Midlands route. From London to Birmingham it is now difficult to find one for less than £20 one way, while few years ago there quite a few on sale at £15 or less. In addition, there is no longer a super off peak walk up fare on Avanti.

In addition, Avanti’s current woes with train cancellations may be further causing some passengers from the West Midlands to switch to Chiltern.

 

[JonathanH]

Avanti‘s advance fares seem to be considerably more expensive than they were a few years ago on the West Midlands route. From London to Birmingham it is now difficult to find one for less than £20 one way, while few years ago there quite a few on sale at £15 or less.

That is partly inflation, and partly an attempt to recover revenue levels. To the extent that regulated flows have been held back it makes sense to increase advance fares by a greater amount.

 

[Bletchleyite]

There's a list of regulated flows in this FoI response. I haven't had a chance to look through it but this would answer the question one way or another.

Thanks. I don't want to spend all night reading those, but a quick search for route High Wycombe (00306 or 306) returned no results, so these fares are, as I suspected, not regulated.

 

[CyrusWuff]

There's a list of regulated flows in this FoI response. I haven't had a chance to look through it but this would answer the question one way or another.

If I had to guess I'd say that the "via High Wycombe" fares from the West Midlands county and beyond generally won't be regulated, but the "via Banbury" fares from Leamington will be.

Either way, fares regulation is not the problem here since I have little doubt the DfT would give Chiltern permission to withdraw the fares if they asked. Even working within the limitations of fares regulation, Chiltern could impose much heavier time restrictions if they so desired - in line with what GWR have done for many of their regulated Super Off-Peak Returns, which only become valid from 10:30.

In any event, the sane answer to overcrowding isn't to price people off the railway. It's to provide more capacity, or (perish the thought) easing peak restrictions or offering cheaper Advance fares on quieter services to spread demand. Sadly such common sense is lacking in Britain; the only metrics used for these sorts of decisions are political and financial.

Looking through that list, the situation is as follows:

• Seasons and Travelcard Season are regulated for most (all?) of Chiltern's flows
• As far as Haddenham & Thame Parkway, the Anytime Day Single and Anytime Day Return are the regulated walk-up fares
• For Bicester, the Off-Peak Return is the regulated walk-up fare
• For Banbury and beyond, the Super Off-Peak Return is the regulated walk-up fare

In terms of time restrictions from the West Midlands, Off-Peaks are currently valid to arrive into London after 10:00, and Super Off-Peaks are valid to arrive after 11:30. There's been no change to the Off-Peak restriction since NFM01 (September 2008), but the Super Off-Peak wasn't valid to arrive into London before 13:45 on any day, including weekends and bank holidays.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Dec 2023 ==

Thanks. I don't want to spend all night reading those, but a quick search for route High Wycombe (00306 or 306) returned no results, so these fares are, as I suspected, not regulated.

00306 is via Seamer. via High Wycombe is 00305 (or 305 as it is in the files), hence the difficulty finding relevant fares.

 

[Jimini]

And super off peak returns…

Ah how we miss those on the WCML..

 

[Taunton]

The barrier is called the Department for Transport.

Not necessarily, Chiltern has long been like this, 2-car formations at Marylebone nothing unusual. An example was the first service from High Wycombe on London Marathon Sunday some years ago, when only the first service will do, always busy, just two cars sent out, many further along couldn't even get on and missed the race start. Everyone of course had paid by the time they were standing on the platform.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ah how we miss those on the WCML..

Different tickets. On the WCML the Off Peak is the former Saver, with the Super Off Peak being a very deep discount, highly restricted "value" type fare, on many other routes it's the Super Off Peak.

For historical reasons the Avanti Off Peaks are about 20% lower than even the Super Off Peaks on LNER for an equivalent journey.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Dec 2023 ==

00306 is via Seamer. via High Wycombe is 00305 (or 305 as it is in the files), hence the difficulty finding relevant fares.

Oops.

So how have fares that were introduced as a deep-discount TOC-specific* post privatisation fare ended up being regulated? It's equivalent to the idea of regulating the "LNR Only" MKC-Euston fare rather than the Any Permitted. Are there any other cases of this?

* I know they technically aren't TOC specific, but in terms of how most people use them "route High Wycombe" does in practice mean the same thing as "Chiltern & Connections" would if it existed.

However as someone else said in the present situation if Chiltern asked DfT if they could increase them I'm sure they'd make arrangements for it to happen.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Dec 2023 ==

Not necessarily, Chiltern has long been like this, 2-car formations at Marylebone nothing unusual. An example was the first service from High Wycombe on London Marathon Sunday some years ago, when only the first service will do, always busy, just two cars sent out, many further along couldn't even get on and missed the race start. Everyone of course had paid by the time they were standing on the platform.

They do do this, but I find it rather bizarre, as they are very good at rejigging capacity and stopping patterns to serve Wembley events. One-track mind perhaps?

 

[CyrusWuff]

So how have fares that were introduced as a deep-discount TOC-specific* post privatisation fare ended up being regulated? It's equivalent to the idea of regulating the "LNR Only" MKC-Euston fare rather than the Any Permitted. Are there any other cases of this?

Presumably Chiltern asked the DfT to change the regulated fare from the Off-Peak to the Super Off-Peak on the relevant flows at some point, and DfT agreed.

Why that was I have no idea, but it's where we find ourselves now.

 

[Bald Rick]

Do you have evidence that the deep-discount Route High Wycombe fares have become regulated?

I’m no fares expert… but it appears that others are!

In any event, the sane answer to overcrowding isn't to price people off the railway.

Whilst I agree in principle, in this case (and some others no doubt) it does seem silly that one or two trains on this route are heavily overloaded, whereas other trains on the route and alternative routes are not. Being more flexible with fares would help there. Yes, some people might be priced off, but some would be ‘prcied up’ or ‘priced to another service’ and then that would make the journey more comfortable for everyone.

 

[CyrusWuff]

Part of Chiltern's problem is the removal of most of the Gerrards Cross and Banbury terminators, and the Aylesbury via High Wycombe services, meaning stops have had to be added to the Birmingham and Oxford ones.

At the same time, Birmingham services have generally been reduced to hourly at weekends, with no sign of the half hourly service returning any time soon.

Pre-Covid, they were pretty good at matching supply and demand, but with fewer services running there's less flexibility to do so.

 

[evergreenadam]

It’s a great shame as Chiltern was previously a success story having grown the market for rail.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It’s a great shame as Chiltern was previously a success story having grown the market for rail.

Unfortunately the dead hand of Arriva took over. That only ever has one result.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 19 Dec 2023 ==

Presumably Chiltern asked the DfT to change the regulated fare from the Off-Peak to the Super Off-Peak on the relevant flows at some point, and DfT agreed.

It's more that I don't understand why any of the "route High Wycombe" fares are regulated, as all of these were introduced commercially as competition for the WCML post privatisation. The regulated fare should be the Any Permitted Off Peak in this case.