Does HS2 Still Need 400m Trains?

[Bletchleyite]

A moving walkway would be a good idea, such that it could help those that are disabled with either limited ability to walk or having to go round in a wheelchair. This would be especially so also with those moving large amounts of luggage between the stations.

It maybe me, but many seem to forget the elderly and disabled, who need methods of helping them get from A to B, more so than the average fit person.

There is to be a tram service to be fair. Though I do agree there should be travelators in an upgraded pedestrian tunnel which represents the shortest not-massive-hill route between the two.

With lots of luggage it'd make sense to use the classic services if connecting at New St. I wonder if they'll consider accessibility minibuses between the two for those who book assistance?

However as I've already pointed out there aren't that many journeys where you would want to connect at New St instead of taking a through service from London to your intended city, and as much if not more of the Brum local service is from Moor St than New St. So this is NOT creating a major issue, it's just swapping which station is easily accessible.

In essence you're just swapping the Cross City, the Wolverhampton/Shrewsbury/N Wales corridor, Hereford* and Walsall for the Snow Hill Lines. (I would expect Coventryites, if that's a word, to use the 2tph direct classic service and not faff about going into Brum and back out).

New St of course has far more than that, but nobody, other than perhaps for one trip to see what it's like, is going to take HS2 to Birmingham and change for somewhere like Nottingham, Leeds or whatever, they will take the direct service from London, because all that faff removes any time advantage. And back to the 400m trains thing, there's no great benefit in pricing them into doing so, because they'd all be pouring off 400m HS2 trains onto 4 car Voyagers and the likes that are already full.

* because trains go that way from Moor St too, so albeit at the cost of an extra same-platform change at Droitwich Spa you could go from Moor St.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

With lots of luggage it'd make sense to use the classic services if connecting at New St.

Without disagreeing with that, it's perhaps worth pointing out that the classic London-Birmingham services are presumably going to run slower once HS2 is open, since we'd expect them to be stopping at more places.

However as I've already pointed out there aren't that many journeys where you would want to connect at New St instead of taking a through service from London to your intended city, and as much if not more of the Brum local service is from Moor St than New St.

Not sure about more from Moor Street. In terms of services that serve local destinations you have

• From Moor Street 4tph to Kidderminster, 4tph to Solihull (but 2 of those direct from London), 2tph to Whitlocks End. Total 10tph.
• From New Street: 4tph Sutton Coldfield [1], 5tph Bromsgrove/Redditch, 6tph Wolverhampton (but 1 of those direct from London), 4tph to Walsall, 2tph to Stechford/etc. Total 21tph

You can argue a bit about alternative classic routes from London to a few of those destinations, but that's largely playing at the margins. I would say New Street clearly wins in local services.

[1] Was 6tph pre-Covid on the Cross-City line. I'm not quite sure why there are still only 4tph.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Without disagreeing with that, it's perhaps worth pointing out that the classic London-Birmingham services are presumably going to run slower once HS2 is open, since we'd expect them to be stopping at more places.

Not by very much. The likely situation is just that all services will run at the speed of the present semifast, i.e. timed for non-tilt and all calling at Watford, MKC and Rugby. We already have a service like this, so we can compare - the xx16 - and it takes 1h20 to New St, compared to 1h14 non-stop to Coventry on the present xx40 (though that will probably include some recovery time at the end).

Thus anyone happy with the classic service now isn't going to have a huge issue continuing using it.

They aren't going to end up all running via Northampton or calling at places like Stechford.

[1] Was 6tph pre-Covid on the Cross-City line. I'm not quite sure why there are still only 4tph.

Punctuality and reliability has been found to be markedly better (plus it's cheaper) so this is staying, with all trains formed of 6 coaches so the capacity is actually higher than 3 coaches on 6tph.

 

[richard_S]

A HS2 service to Scotland is not going to work most of the line is dual (1 up 1 down) HS2 train will get stopped by an all stations stopping passenger or a slow freight. People have great ideas but dont see the problems. Its the same with the route to Liverpool 2lines.

 

[sprinterguy]

A HS2 service to Scotland is not going to work most of the line is dual (1 up 1 down) HS2 train will get stopped by an all stations stopping passenger or a slow freight. People have great ideas but dont see the problems. Its the same with the route to Liverpool 2lines.

HS2 services on the WCML will largely be relacing Avanti's Pendolinos North of Crewe, using similar paths. There'll be no more conflicts for Liverpool and Scotland services in that regard than there are at present.

 

[The Planner]

A HS2 service to Scotland is not going to work most of the line is dual (1 up 1 down) HS2 train will get stopped by an all stations stopping passenger or a slow freight. People have great ideas but dont see the problems. Its the same with the route to Liverpool 2lines.

That is what a timetable that stops that from happening is for.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

That is what a timetable that stops that from happening is for.

Kinda yes-and-no. You're correct if it's just HS2 services from London swapping to the existing lines at Lichfield and then following something like the existing timetable Northwards - since then those trains would just slot into existing paths. The two problems are (a) that's not really high speed (apart from the section South of Lichfield), and (b) to the extent that the high-speed London-Lichfield bit attracts new custom [*], you risk finding that the existing frequencies are insufficient for the induced demand, and then you're stuck if there are no more paths because it's a 2-track railway that also has to support freight and regional services.

[*] Plus new custom from Birmingham since travelling North from Interchange/Curzon St is likely to be a lot quicker than crawling from International/New St through Wolverhampton.

 

[The Planner]

Kinda yes-and-no. You're correct if it's just HS2 services from London swapping to the existing lines at Lichfield and then following something like the existing timetable Northwards - since then those trains would just slot into existing paths. The two problems are (a) that's not really high speed (apart from the section South of Lichfield), and (b) to the extent that the high-speed London-Lichfield bit attracts new custom [*], you risk finding that the existing frequencies are insufficient for the induced demand, and then you're stuck if there are no more paths because it's a 2-track railway that also has to support freight and regional services.

[*] Plus new custom from Birmingham since travelling North from Interchange/Curzon St is likely to be a lot quicker than crawling from International/New St through Wolverhampton.

They won't slot into existing paths, it will be re-written with HS2 trains first on the graph. They won't come grinding to a halt behind a freight.

 

[richard_S]

They won't slot into existing paths, it will be re-written with HS2 trains first on the graph. They won't come grinding to a halt behind a freight.

If they change the paths for the WCML there will be ripples across the whole rail network.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

They won't slot into existing paths, it will be re-written with HS2 trains first on the graph. They won't come grinding to a halt behind a freight.

I'm not sure that changes the principle though. Even if they are written into brand new paths as you describe, if those new paths allow for the HS2 trains to be either faster or more frequent than Avanti currently has North of Crewe, that's going to mean less capacity than at present for everything else. So unless there happens to currently be some spare unused capacity on the line then that's surely going to have unpleasant consequences for the other services on it? So unless there's some flaw on my argument (?) HS2 trains are still going to be confined to something that looks similar to the current timetable (same frequencies/speeds even if different times) North of Crewe if you don't want to destroy other services?

 

[Nottingham59]

I'm not sure that changes the principle though. Even if they are written into brand new paths as you describe, if those new paths allow for the HS2 trains to be either faster or more frequent than Avanti currently has North of Crewe, that's going to mean less capacity than at present for everything else. So unless there happens to currently be some spare unused capacity on the line then that's surely going to have unpleasant consequences for the other services on it? So unless there's some flaw on my argument (?) HS2 trains are still going to be confined to something that looks similar to the current timetable (same frequencies/speeds even if different times) North of Crewe if you don't want to destroy other services?

Yes. North of Crewe, the HS2 trains will be no faster than Avanti Pendolinos, and in some places they will be slower as they won't have tilt capability.

 

[richard_S]

It will be interesting to see if they can cope with winter conditions in Cumbria and southern Scotland. These trains have been built as light weight will they get traction in snow and ice?

 

[The Planner]

If they change the paths for the WCML there will be ripples across the whole rail network.

Yes. Thats already anticipated. Its not as though the WCML hasn't been re-written before.

I'm not sure that changes the principle though. Even if they are written into brand new paths as you describe, if those new paths allow for the HS2 trains to be either faster or more frequent than Avanti currently has North of Crewe, that's going to mean less capacity than at present for everything else. So unless there happens to currently be some spare unused capacity on the line then that's surely going to have unpleasant consequences for the other services on it? So unless there's some flaw on my argument (?) HS2 trains are still going to be confined to something that looks similar to the current timetable (same frequencies/speeds even if different times) North of Crewe if you don't want to destroy other services?

A vast amount of work was being put into it before Rishi slammed the door on it. People are now scratching their heads about the ramifications of that. ETCS replacement of Warrington, Preston and Carlisle as well as various remodelling will also change the configuration by default even if HS2 wasnt there at all.