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HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

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Energy

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3. Is the Handacre connection still definitely included in Phase 1?
For now
4. If so, when HS classic compatible trains get on the WCML will they be slower than Pendolinos because they don't tilt?
Yes, though it's only a minute or two. There is a benefit to having all passenger trains on Trent Valley being 110mph from a timetabling perspective, the same way that Thameslink and Crossrail pack more tph in by having all rolling stock being the same.
1. Sunak said £12bn to build NPR as originally planned from Liverpool to Manchester. As he'd already gutted the original plan of new track from Liverpool to Leeds to just Warrington to Marsden he's a terrible liar, but does that include the tunnel under South Manchester that was in the HS2 budget? Crossing the Ship Canal, burrowing through the M6 embankment (or going over it)? (The station at Manchester Airport was already to be externally financed, supposedly). Hard to see a business case to spend £12bn on a new line for 20 miles with journey times from Liverpool to Manchester slower than via Chat Moss.

2. A new station for Bradford? Without its being on NPR? How on earth would that stack up? It was already cut from NPR by the Tories.
I wouldn't read too much into it. NPR depended on the HS2 2b tunnels and the Tories never really decided what NPR they wanted and whether Bradford was or was not included.
 
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Arkeeos

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For a disclaimer, the document was quite obviously written unprofessionally, by a person(s) who does not understand transport, nor anything surrounding the projects listed in documents. There is no reason to take it seriously, the transport select committee will be interesting.
1. Sunak said £12bn to build NPR as originally planned from Liverpool to Manchester. As he'd already gutted the original plan of new track from Liverpool to Leeds to just Warrington to Marsden he's a terrible liar, but does that include the tunnel under South Manchester that was in the HS2 budget? Plus crossing the Ship Canal, burrowing through the M6 embankment (or going over it)? (The station at Manchester Airport was already to be externally financed, supposedly). Hard to see a business case to spend £12bn on a new line for 20 miles with journey times from Liverpool to Manchester slower than via Chat Moss.
The HS2 tunnel under South Manchester retains route protection, everything from the original NPR is still pledged to built according to the document, Or it is an "illustrative" depiction of what the region could do with the "funding" it is allocated. There is no reason to build an "NPR" with the original HS2 alignment if HS2 isn't happening, This isn't even taking into account what is said in the Integrated Rail Plan:

"Of the three options [NPR options], all were low to poor value for money. Option 1 had the strongest business case, but even it had only a marginally positive benefit cost ratio"

And that is with HS2 subsidising the cost, by sharing infrastructure, there's is no reason to entertain NPR in its current IRP form if you are not going to build HS2.

2. A new station for Bradford? Without its being on NPR? How on earth would that stack up? It was already cut from NPR by the Tories.

Inferring from the document (As nothing concrete is provided), it indicates that the Brighouse Branch would be reopened which would somehow give 12min journey times, and would split off from NPR to Bradford via that branch, It is important to note that the journey times have likely been made up.

3. Is the Handacre connection still definitely included in Phase 1?
They mention remodeling Handsacre, to revert it back to the original design where HS2 trains will run onto the fast lines, rather than the slow lines. However, whether Handsacre happens at all is up in the air, so its currently a maybe.

4. If so, when HS classic compatible trains get on the WCML will they be slower than Pendolinos because they don't tilt?

Yes, they will be limited to 110mph, they might also cause a reduction of capacity, since they are only 200m trains, which makes sense in the wider HS2 network, but not much now.
 
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snowball

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1. Sunak said £12bn to build NPR as originally planned from Liverpool to Manchester. As he'd already gutted the original plan of new track from Liverpool to Leeds to just Warrington to Marsden he's a terrible liar, but does that include the tunnel under South Manchester that was in the HS2 budget? Plus crossing the Ship Canal, burrowing through the M6 embankment (or going over it)? (The station at Manchester Airport was already to be externally financed, supposedly). Hard to see a business case to spend £12bn on a new line for 20 miles with journey times from Liverpool to Manchester slower than via Chat Moss.

What the government says is that the figure includes the money that would have been spent on the NPR/HS2 route from Liverpool to Manchester, so on that basis it would include the S Mancs tunnel; but that discussions will be held with northern mayors to see if they want to change that route following the abandonment of HS2 north of Handsacre, so in principle we could end up with a route not going near the airport. Commentators have noticed that the tunnel would be harder to justify financially if its cost is borne solely by NPR without HS2.

The NPR route from Liverpool to Rostherne, as proposed up to the date of Sunak's speech, is unpublished, but thought to cross the ship canal on the site of the surviving bridge of the former line at Grappenhall.

2. A new station for Bradford? Without its being on NPR? How on earth would that stack up? It was already cut from NPR by the Tories.
The proposal appears to be that trains from Manchester would get to Bradford via Huddersfield and a new link from there. Whether they would continue to Leeds I don't know.
 

Peter Sarf

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If Keir and Labour want to get back in power, they just need to commit to NPR and ALL of HS2, by which North and the Midlands will be pleased, and by Christmas 2024, Labour will be in power and hopefully shovels in the ground for Phase 2A. Rishi has dug a hole for himself which he has made it impossible to get out of due to a general election on the horizon.
But can Keir and Labour afford the cost ?. That is the poison chalice being handed to them.

I cannot help reminding myself that maybe the UK cannot afford as much as it could half a decade ago. How much money are we going to need to sink into defence and supporting Ukraine. Is it back to the cold war era ?.

So what is there that we can afford ?. If we can I would get on with Phase 2a, safeguard Euston and ditch Handsacre to make the best of what we have started. Phase 2b and NPR is now a long way off.
 

daodao

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If we can I would get on with Phase 2a, safeguard Euston and ditch Handsacre to make the best of what we have started. Phase 2b and NPR is now a long way off.
However, the current Westminster administration intends deliberately to sabotage any prospect of a future government resuscitating HS2 phase 2a, by abandoning the earthworks and selling off the compulsorily purchased land within weeks. It is protecting the expensive alignment of NPR/HS2 phase 2b from Rostherne to Manchester Piccadilly for now, but I don't see how building NPR alone via this route can be justified from a cost benefit perspective.
 

Bletchleyite

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So what is there that we can afford ?. If we can I would get on with Phase 2a, safeguard Euston and ditch Handsacre to make the best of what we have started. Phase 2b and NPR is now a long way off.

Handsacre should not be dropped if only because it allows for diversions during engineering. If it has a potential to only be a London-Birmingham shuttle, then it should be cancelled entirely forthwith.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Yes, they will be limited to 110mph, they might also cause a reduction of capacity, since they are only 200m trains, which makes sense in the wider HS2 network, but not much now.

They are it appears renegotiating the contract, which I think may lead to a compromise e.g. 250m 10 car or 275m 11 car trains more suited to classic compatible working. However if they don't then portion working is likely to be the way.
 

The Planner

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Handsacre should not be dropped if only because it allows for diversions during engineering. If it has a potential to only be a London-Birmingham shuttle, then it should be cancelled entirely forthwith.
That is a very expensive piece of resilience. I would also expect the HS2 6 foot to be more than 6 foot which allows for more single line working.
 

Hey 3

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However, the current Westminster administration intends deliberately to sabotage any prospect of a future government resuscitating HS2 phase 2a, by abandoning the earthworks and selling off the compulsorily purchased land within weeks. It is protecting the expensive alignment of NPR/HS2 phase 2b from Rostherne to Manchester Piccadilly for now, but I don't see how building NPR alone via this route can be justified from a cost benefit perspective.
Why they are protecting a very expensive alignment I will never know, since it was a cheaper option compared to 2B which means 2 new stations and a Davenport Green to Ardwick tunnel, way more expensive than 2A. They also intend to sabotage it as the government know these are their last days and want to make it harder for then next government (Labour).
 

sprinterguy

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If Keir and Labour want to get back in power, they just need to commit to NPR and ALL of HS2, by which North and the Midlands will be pleased, and by Christmas 2024, Labour will be in power and hopefully shovels in the ground for Phase 2A. Rishi has dug a hole for himself which he has made it impossible to get out of due to a general election on the horizon.
High Speed rail, in whatever form, has very little relevance to the majority of prospective voters at the next election.
 

AndrewE

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High Speed rail, in whatever form, has very little relevance to the majority of prospective voters at the next election.
but capacity on the WCML and space for more electric freight certainly does (even if it is well hidden or not reported.)
All the polls show that the government (and the opposition) are miles behind the electorate in wanting decarbonisation and action to head off even worse climate change than we are already seeing...
 

sprinterguy

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but capacity on the WCML and space for more electric freight certainly does (even if it is well hidden or not reported.)
It doesn't. What impact does electric freight have on utility bills, schools or the NHS that the general public would recognise?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

All the polls show that the government (and the opposition) are miles behind the electorate in wanting decarbonisation and action to head off even worse climate change than we are already seeing...
Like most of the population, I haven't seen any polls. I certainly haven't heard any discussion of decarbonisation in the market town I live in, or in the established second city I work in.
 
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AndrewE

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It doesn't. What impact does electric freight have on utility bills, schools or the NHS that the general population would recognise?
You don't think that the wider population care about the amount of road freight, or the fact that we can't put any more of it behind electric locos?

I think they do, but don't make the connection between lack of rail investment or regulatory control and our spiralling down into third-world levels of congestion and pollution.

Unusually I have been out by car about 3 times in the last 4 or 5 days and every time we have had to put the ventilation onto recirculate because of filthy poisonous diesel exhausts - all anonymous semi-elderly white vans.
 

sprinterguy

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You don't think that the wider population care about the amount of road freight, or the fact that we can't put any more of it behind electric locos?
They do not, one way or the other, as they're not aware that there is such a thing as electric railfreight as an alternative, and heavy road freight doesn't impact them on a regular basis.
 

HSTEd

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but capacity on the WCML and space for more electric freight certainly does (even if it is well hidden or not reported.)
The railway remains the travel toy of the comparatively rich over most of the UK, especially on lines like the WCML that are dominated by long distance journeys.

And I see little evidence that expansion in freight operations will lead to meaningfully greater electrification of freight in the short to medium term.
Given that rail operators are not required to pay any significant tax on their diesel, the trend has been away from electric operation to save money in recent years.
All the polls show that the government (and the opposition) are miles behind the electorate in wanting decarbonisation and action to head off even worse climate change than we are already seeing...
The public want those actions right up until they are expected to pay for them.
And I say this as a decarbonisation researcher.
 

stephen rp

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Why they are protecting a very expensive alignment I will never know, since it was a cheaper option compared to 2B which means 2 new stations and a Davenport Green to Ardwick tunnel, way more expensive than 2A. They also intend to sabotage it as the government know these are their last days and want to make it harder for then next government (Labour).
I'm confused by what's meant by "a cheaper option". Cheaper than what?
 

The Ham

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The public want those actions right up until they are expected to pay for them.
And I say this as a decarbonisation researcher.

Indeed, however there's a chance that they're already paying for it. For example, if you are traveling around and get held up in traffic (which results in a higher fuel burn) that delay is made worse because others who could use rail aren't and more lorries on the roads rather going by rail.

Likewise, lorries are road killers, in that the more of them that use a road the shorter the design life. This means expensive road repairs, which costs the Highway Authorities (and therefore tax payers) money.

It also means that more and more road improvements are needed to cater for the extra traffic, if we'd been able to manage road use a little better we may not have needed to consider building the Lower Thames Crossing (which will likely result in the need for more road schemes within Kent to cater for the extra traffic it would allow). All of which cost money.

As I've said before, those who need to drive should be trying to get as many other people as possible not to drive so their journeys are nicer (and cheaper).
 

Peter Sarf

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I'm confused by what's meant by "a cheaper option". Cheaper than what?
I am very much guessing but I think the complaint is that phase 2a which is cheap is having its land sold off. Whereas the more expensive phase 2b into Manchester is not having the land that was compulsorily purchased sold off. The point then being that phase 2a will then be harder to resurrect than phase 2b. This is despite phase 2a being a lot cheaper than phase 2b and phase 2a being a big improvement over just phase 1. Possibly phase 2b is pointless without phase 2a so really looks like vandalism.

But I don't know for sure if phase 2a land is being sold off. Anyway phase 2a was the least contentious bit of land grab (that is one of the reasons it is so dramatically cheaper per mile) so perhaps easier to go through buying again later.
Indeed, however there's a chance that they're already paying for it. For example, if you are traveling around and get held up in traffic (which results in a higher fuel burn) that delay is made worse because others who could use rail aren't and more lorries on the roads rather going by rail.

Likewise, lorries are road killers, in that the more of them that use a road the shorter the design life. This means expensive road repairs, which costs the Highway Authorities (and therefore tax payers) money.

It also means that more and more road improvements are needed to cater for the extra traffic, if we'd been able to manage road use a little better we may not have needed to consider building the Lower Thames Crossing (which will likely result in the need for more road schemes within Kent to cater for the extra traffic it would allow). All of which cost money.

As I've said before, those who need to drive should be trying to get as many other people as possible not to drive so their journeys are nicer (and cheaper).
It really needs more education.

Perhaps if cross channel rail freight through the tunnel was as busy as possible then the lower Thames crossing might not be needed. Currently the Dartford crossing is a nightmare and a different route no-where near Dartford is better than tinkering with the existing route (see what I did there - the parallel is HS2 is better than tinkering with the WCML). Likewise I wish another motorway had existed West of London rather than tinkering (widening) with the M25. Its all down to Nimbys and environmentalists (not saying thats bad but it costs).

I know what you mean but careful as it could be construed as do as I say not as I do !.
 

Speed43125

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I'm confused by what's meant by "a cheaper option". Cheaper than what?
The tunnelling via Manchester airport is very expensive, and without hs2 routing that way, an alternative route without such extensive underground sections might be preferred.
 

stephen rp

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The tunnelling via Manchester airport is very expensive, and without hs2 routing that way, an alternative route without such extensive underground sections might be preferred.
So just loads of compulsory purchase and demolitions? (See likewise finding a route from Warrington to Liverpool other than existing lines.)
 

The Ham

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I know what you mean but careful as it could be construed as do as I say not as I do !.

Just for the record, the vast majority of my trips (including nearly all term time peak hour travel, and not very much during the school holidays either) doesn't use a motor vehicle.
 

HSTEd

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I am very much guessing but I think the complaint is that phase 2a which is cheap is having its land sold off. Whereas the more expensive phase 2b into Manchester is not having the land that was compulsorily purchased sold off. The point then being that phase 2a will then be harder to resurrect than phase 2b. This is despite phase 2a being a lot cheaper than phase 2b and phase 2a being a big improvement over just phase 1. Possibly phase 2b is pointless without phase 2a so really looks like vandalism.
No land has been compulsorily purchased for Phase 2B because no Act of Parliament has been passed to authorise such purchases.

Phase 2B is the most feasible capacity solution available for the Manchester area, combined with the NPR route heading north-east out of Manchester.
No other solutions can offer anything approaching what it does for less money.

THe existing lines are at the fundamental limits of two-track suburban railways. No meaningful journey time or frequency improvement is possible (either for fast trains or local services) and there are all sorts of pathing limits with regards to the mess that is the Manchester railway system.
 

JonathanH

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No land has been compulsorily purchased for Phase 2B because no Act of Parliament has been passed to authorise such purchases.
At what point does the land between Piccadilly and Longsight on the east side of the formation get used for other purposes? It looks like it is reserved for Phase 2b, but could easily be built on as Manchester's centre spreads.
 

stephen rp

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The integrated rail plan promised £96bn for rail schemes in the North and Midlands. Where's the other £60bn gone?
 

Arkeeos

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The integrated rail plan promised £96bn for rail schemes in the North and Midlands. Where's the other £60bn gone?
The government hoped you would forget about that, that it promised NPR *and* HS2.

They also hope that you forgot that they promised a Tram in Leeds after cancelling the eastern leg.
 

The Ham

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The government hoped you would forget about that, that it promised NPR *and* HS2.

They also hope that you forgot that they promised a Tram in Leeds after cancelling the eastern leg.

Like they for you forget that the reason for cuts to local services is because they cut funding to local government - but local services are a decision made by local services so as an MP they can't get involved.

Also note they expect you to forget that a Tram had already been promised to Leeds when they then decide to cancel NPR (or that Trams already exist to Manchester Airport when that's promised - again) and it's promised for a third (maybe 19th time by then).

Finally they expect you to forget that any promise made us subject to a business case, so they can drop each promise suggestion (even that sounds too firm) one by one (the whole lot?) after enough people have forgotten why they were being provided.

The bottom line is that the cancellation of HS2 is likely to result in one new bus for Leeds (not one new route, just one new bus and then it's likely to be replacing 3 which had been in service).
 

Dan G

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Seems the full HS2 still has a chance
A Labour government will have the option of reviving the northern legs of the HS2 rail project, after it emerged it is very unlikely that any land bought by the government for the route will be sold before the general election.
[...]sources have told the Observer it is extremely unlikely that any land purchased north of Birmingham will have been sold by the time a new government is in place.

While so-called safeguarding laws protecting part of the proposed HS2 route to Crewe will be lifted early this year, those rules can be reimposed by a future government and their removal does not entail the sale of government-owned land.
 

stephen rp

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Seems the full HS2 still has a chance

That's if all the HS2 money hasn't been "redistributed" dahn sarf.

Dft-e1703195269805.jpg
 

Rail Quest

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Seems the full HS2 still has a chance
The current Labour party are too on edge to make any promise to do with HS2 given how controversial it was. And if they get in to power, by the same principle I expect them to be wayyyyy too scared to reignite the project out of fear of angering people who just voted for them - my hopes are still at rock bottom:'(
 
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