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Why a 49-mile journey in Wales takes seven hours

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DynamicSpirit

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Of course, disregarding the Ffestiniog as it doesn't (any longer) really provide a public transport function, there is a bus service between the two, the 3B, which is approximately hourly but with some gaps. It runs from directly outside the railway station.

If that bus service was in the journey planners then people would see that and perhaps not say "that's ridiculous, well, *** it, we'll take the car". Though admittedly most people who would want to make that journey would be locals who would know about the bus anyway, at least from having seen a bus in Blaenau with Porthmadog on the front.
I think one problem with putting some buses in the journey planners (aside from the problem of the railway becoming responsible for providing information about stuff that's outside its control) , is, where do you draw the line of what buses to include in the railway journey planners? Yes, Carmarthen to Aberystwyth seems like a no-brainer. And probably Blaenau Ffestiniog to Porthmadog too. But there must be hundreds, maybe thousands, of bus routes that link places a bit more directly than the railway and if you don't want the railway journey planners to become de facto bus journey planners, you're going to have to make arbitrary decisions about what to include and what not to include. Alton to Winchester? Probably. Alton to Basingstoke? Possibly. How about Dartford to Swanley? Or a toughie... Inverness to Wick - where there actually is a direct train but the bus is still quicker?

As I said, Wales's bitty rail network very strongly points to full integration as a significant improvement.

And I think this is the correct answer. You need full integration between rail and bus. And rail journey planners that have enough knowledge that, for any journey in the country, they would be able to check whether going by bus, or partly by bus, would be quicker and could pop up a message to point this out.
 
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MontyP

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Rail isn't good at dealing with rural routes. You could throw 40 billion at rural routes in Wales and you still wouldn't have a comprehensive and fully modernised network.

Barely anyone wants to travel from BF to Porthmadog, and those that do have a non-TfW railway, or a bus service to use. Heavy rail really isn't the answer here.

Rural routes are getting brand new trains, so you can't really say that nothing is being spent, a much bigger worry for me is that with so much extra cash going to rail that busses will be drained dry, and actual cheap usable and efficient public transport will cease to exist in rural areas.

I'm all for spending money on rail where it is the best tool for the job - new high speed links into Wales, metro systems in big cities, bring it on. But all the focus goes into reversing Beeching and schemes like this that achieve little, and just distract attention.
The obvious answer (just as it is with other basket case rural lines that are occasionally proposed for reopening such as Whitby to Scarborough) is to properly integrate the bus service into a single transport network - timetabling, ticketing, connections held, same conditions of travel, space for luggage / wheelchairs etc.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

And I think this is the correct answer. You need full integration between rail and bus. And rail journey planners that have enough knowledge that, for any journey in the country, they would be able to check whether going by bus, or partly by bus, would be quicker and could pop up a message to point this out.
Google Maps journey planner does a pretty good job of doing this ...
 

Bletchleyite

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Google Maps journey planner does a pretty good job of doing this ...

It does, but it can't be fully relied upon to be correct. It usually is but I have seen it not be (bustimes.org was correct so the data had been correctly submitted).

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I think one problem with putting some buses in the journey planners (aside from the problem of the railway becoming responsible for providing information about stuff that's outside its control) , is, where do you draw the line of what buses to include in the railway journey planners? Yes, Carmarthen to Aberystwyth seems like a no-brainer. And probably Blaenau Ffestiniog to Porthmadog too. But there must be hundreds, maybe thousands, of bus routes that link places a bit more directly than the railway and if you don't want the railway journey planners to become de facto bus journey planners, you're going to have to make arbitrary decisions about what to include and what not to include. Alton to Winchester? Probably. Alton to Basingstoke? Possibly. How about Dartford to Swanley? Or a toughie... Inverness to Wick - where there actually is a direct train but the bus is still quicker?

In Wales's case a fully integrated network probably would make sense, i.e. only have a Dutch 9292ov.nl style planner and don't have a rail-only one at all. Rail planners can show slower options e.g. to ensure London Northwestern options are shown for Euston-Birmingham as people choose them due to their price, so if there's both bus and rail showing both if it's not ridiculous isn't unreasonable.

Deutsche Bahn's planner knows about most regional buses, at least, and will show those where relevant, so it can be done. And SBB's planner covers all modes nationally.

But as a minimum, putting alll Traws bus services in the railway planners (I'm aware the one that started the thread is) and having them all able to be ticketed by way of railway e-tickets (even if you can still buy a bus ticket from the driver) would make a lot of sense, as would bringing routes like this that very much plug gaps in the railway into the Traws network. But even otherwise, you would probably sell a lot more train tickets to Snowdonia if you could just stick Llanberis* into the rail journey planner - most people just go that far and then give up, they won't go off to bustimes.org or whatever and plan a complex journey. They may use Google, but might lack trust in it, and that lack of trust would be sensible because it isn't always correct, particularly at times of disruption or near a timetable change.

In a way I think RailLinks (a late 90s/early 2000s project to put dedicated, branded bus routes in the rail timetable) was well before its time. It failed then but I'm not sure it would fail now because of the fact that almost all tickets are bought using a journey planner, and the first thing someone will do when considering going somewhere by rail for the first time is type it in to see if it has a station.

* See also Ambleside, Keswick, Bude, Tintagel or pick any other random example of a tourist honeypot that isn't directly rail connected but is connected to rail by a bus service, but one that you have to know about or you'd assume didn't exist.
 
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Zontar

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Of course, disregarding the Ffestiniog as it doesn't (any longer) really provide a public transport function, there is a bus service between the two, the 3B, which is approximately hourly but with some gaps. It runs from directly outside the railway station.

If that bus service was in the journey planners then people would see that and perhaps not say "that's ridiculous, well, *** it, we'll take the car". Though admittedly most people who would want to make that journey would be locals who would know about the bus anyway, at least from having seen a bus in Blaenau with Porthmadog on the front.

As I said, Wales's bitty rail network very strongly points to full integration as a significant improvement.
Yes agree. My point with using the ffestiniog comparison, was to highlight what you describe. There's routes like this all over Wales. She picked one to make a point, but didn't go down the route of explanation that you did.

But the main point I feel they should be making is that Wales will never have a comparable joined up network unless you chuck trillions at it.
 

Bletchleyite

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But the main point I feel they should be making is that Wales will never have a comparable joined up network unless you chuck trillions at it.

It would require bus regulation, but it wouldn't cost trillions. It might not even make it past hundreds of thousands. Buses in Wales away from Cardiff and the North Wales Coast are de-facto regulated anyway, because very few are economic to run commercially. Thus it'd just require political change, i.e. an emphasis on integration, or even a move to all tenders being managed and funded by TfW directly (acting as a sort of passenger transport executive for all of Wales, which given the small population isn't as silly as it may sound) rather than Councils.

Integration is almost always a mindset issue - "we do buses, you do trains" is engrained in UK culture and even was in the days of the British Transport Commission which really should have been able to sort it - you just need to crack that and turn it into "we'll both do a network, together".

To be fair I support that generally, but both Wales and Scotland, with their bitty rail networks, suit it much more - for instance, I bet many people have no idea there's a direct Inverness-Fort William coach service and just make an excessively long rail journey, while the Far North could run bus and rail as an integrated timetable rather than competing, improving the journey opportunities for everyone. But Wales is easier precisely because so much of the bus network is already tendered anyway, and those bits that aren't are probably lower priority anyway, because they are in areas with excellent rail coverage anyway.
 
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MontyP

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Integration is almost always a mindset issue - "we do buses, you do trains" is engrained in UK culture and even was in the days of the British Transport Commission which really should have been able to sort it - you just need to crack that and turn it into "we'll both do a network, together".
And given that lots of the rail operators in the UK (First, Arriva etc) also run bus companies, it really shouldn't be so difficult!
 

Dai Corner

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For anyone not already aware, the Welsh Government, via TfW, are responsible for both Trawscymru buses and TfW Rail trains. The buses are operated by private companies but WG provide the vehicles, specify the timetables and pay the costs.

(for the pedants, yes I know Newport Transport operate the T7 and are owned by the City Council).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Buses in Wales away from Cardiff and the North Wales Coast are de-facto regulated anyway, because very few are economic to run commercially.
I think Stagecoach, First, ComfortDelGro and various independents would beg to differ. They all operate commercially in the urban parts of south Wales outside Cardiff.
 

Bletchleyite

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I think Stagecoach, First, ComfortDelGro and various independents would beg to differ. They all operate commercially in the urban parts of south Wales outside Cardiff.

I wouldn't really consider Newport and Swansea to be "away from Cardiff", it's a stretched out conurbation a bit like the North West or the West Midlands, but perhaps should have been more generic in saying "the urban part of South Wales" rather than "Cardiff".

But the point stands that in most of Wales commercial bus operation is non-viable, and in those parts where it is the routes are such that regional integration is of less importance because rail coverage is typically reasonable.
 

mike57

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It would require bus regulation, but it wouldn't cost trillions. It might not even make it past hundreds of thousands.
If there is one change that is needed in this country, it is proper integration of Bus and Rail services. I am not talking about new Infrastructure, just the ability to buy a ticket from Home (rail connected) to a place served by buses but not trains. One booking engine, One ticket, one itinerary, with directions for walking between train and bus if required if its more than right outside the station, and journey completion guaranteed in the event of disruption. Most of this is about the right data feeds, but bus regulation would be required. Question, what proportion of bus revenue is provided by central/local government as support? So if as I suspect taxpayers are funding a lot of buses in some way then regulation is the next step, he who pays the piper calls the tune... The only other additional cost is journey completion, but to me thats another essential ingredient.

If its easy to use people will use the service, both for lesiure and essential journeys, but equally the more disjointed the system becomes the more people will just use their car or not make the journey.
 

John Luxton

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For anyone not already aware, the Welsh Government, via TfW, are responsible for both Trawscymru buses and TfW Rail trains. The buses are operated by private companies but WG provide the vehicles, specify the timetables and pay the costs.
What puzzles me is why is it that the Explore Wales Rail and Bus Rover which is promoted by TfW only appears to be available for use on the T1 when and not the T3 Wrexham - Ruabon - Barmouth which also fills a missing rail void as does the T1. Would make the Explore Wales Rover so much better if it was usable on the T3 and perhaps even other Trawscymru services.
 
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The population density of the Scottish Borders is 25 people / km²; for Ceredigion it's 40 and for Carmarthenshire it's 79. The 35 mile railway from Edinburgh to Tweedbank cost ~£350 mn in 2012; ~£480 mn now. I can't tell how long the original railway was but as the crow flies Carmarthen to Aberystwyth's ~40 miles, so my very non-expert guess would be that getting it done for under £600 mn would be overly optimistic.

As for how many journeys each would benefit, the combined population of Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Swansea and Ceredigion is around 630,000. Rhondda Cynon Taf, Caerphilly, Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent and Merthyr Tydfil have 600,000 between them and I'd guess that rail demand from there's overwhelmingly to / from Cardiff, within the Valleys, or to places most logically reached from Cardiff (Bristol and London).
Could you clarify the point you're making with the population density figures, i.e. are you suggesting an influence on (re)construction costs or journey volumes or something else? Whatever the reason, it would seem pertinent to point out for completeness that much of the Borders line traffic arises from its passage through Midlothian (population density one order of magnitude higher) and the other end of the route is in a large city with density two orders of magnitude higher!
 

DynamicSpirit

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If there is one change that is needed in this country, it is proper integration of Bus and Rail services. I am not talking about new Infrastructure, just the ability to buy a ticket from Home (rail connected) to a place served by buses but not trains. One booking engine, One ticket, one itinerary, with directions for walking between train and bus if required if its more than right outside the station, and journey completion guaranteed in the event of disruption. Most of this is about the right data feeds, but bus regulation would be required.

I'm not even sure it would require a great deal of extra bus regulation. I'm not too clear on the precise details of bus regulation today, but presumably the operators already have to make their timetables available via the data feeds that sites like bustimes use? All that would really be required to get basic integration going is some requirement to make fares equally available via data feeds and to accept tickets booked via online journey planners (that one may require the Government to provide some IT infrastructure to make sure bus companies have a means to read those tickets on their buses). There are probably other aspects of regulation that might be desirable for a fully integrated scheme, but just those basics would make a huge difference.
 

A S Leib

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Could you clarify the point you're making with the population density figures, i.e. are you suggesting an influence on (re)construction costs or journey volumes or something else? Whatever the reason, it would seem pertinent to point out for completeness that much of the Borders line traffic arises from its passage through Midlothian (population density one order of magnitude higher) and the other end of the route is in a large city with density two orders of magnitude higher!
That is a fair point. My point was meant to be about construction costs, and building in Carmarthenshire / Ceredigion probably would be a lot cheaper than in Edinburgh (although as the estimates I can find from far more qualified people seem to be in the £600 mn - £800 mn range I'm sticking with my guess that under £600 mn's too optimistic).
 
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That is a fair point. My point was meant to be about construction costs, and building in Carmarthenshire / Ceredigion probably would be a lot cheaper than in Edinburgh (although as the estimates I can find from far more qualified people seem to be in the £600 mn - £800 mn range I'm sticking with my guess that under £600 mn's too optimistic).
To be fair, there wasn't any significant construction in Edinburgh itself, as the route was already in use as far as Newcraighall, but did need to be rebuilt through all of Midlothian. Anyway, enough of this digression, back to the discussion about Wales...!
 

Bald Rick

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That is a fair point. My point was meant to be about construction costs, and building in Carmarthenshire / Ceredigion probably would be a lot cheaper than in Edinburgh (although as the estimates I can find from far more qualified people seem to be in the £600 mn - £800 mn range I'm sticking with my guess that under £600 mn's too optimistic).

Borders was relatively cheap to build, partly down to there being a large quantity of cheap and available labour nearby in the central belt.

Thats not the case in Ceredigion.
 

yoyothehobo

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That is a fair point. My point was meant to be about construction costs, and building in Carmarthenshire / Ceredigion probably would be a lot cheaper than in Edinburgh (although as the estimates I can find from far more qualified people seem to be in the £600 mn - £800 mn range I'm sticking with my guess that under £600 mn's too optimistic).
Swings and roundabout with construction costs. Either land is expensive and workforce plentiful (near Edinburgh) or Land is cheap and workforce mainly sheep (Ceredigion), meaning staff costs are massively increased.
 

eldomtom2

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as i said before,
That the BCR is the correct measure of assessing these things is fact, as set out in Government policy
I still don't see why you keep claiming that because Government policy says something is fact, that makes it fact. It's fact that government policy presently states that the BCR is the correct measure of assessing these things, yes, but that does not mean that it is fact that the BCR is the correct measure of assessing these things.
 

Dai Corner

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I still don't see why you keep claiming that because Government policy says something is fact, that makes it fact. It's fact that government policy presently states that the BCR is the correct measure of assessing these things, yes, but that does not mean that it is fact that the BCR is the correct measure of assessing these things.
It is if you want the Government to fund your project.
 

DelW

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I still don't see why you keep claiming that because Government policy says something is fact, that makes it fact. It's fact that government policy presently states that the BCR is the correct measure of assessing these things, yes, but that does not mean that it is fact that the BCR is the correct measure of assessing these things.
There are a number of possible ways of assessing returns from an investment, but since government funding is the only remotely likely source for rebuilding railways, its chosen method is the one which will prevail. He who pays the piper etc. You can come up with all the alternatives you like but unless someone with multiple hundreds of millions of pounds to spare accepts one of them, it's whistling in the wind.
(Edit: Dai Corner said it more concisely :))
 

Dai Corner

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It is not an immutable law of the universe that the government will determine what transit projects to fund by their BCRs.
No, but
It's fact that government policy presently states that the BCR is the correct measure of assessing these things,
So in practice

It is [necessary to do a BCR analysis] if you want the Government to fund your project
We never know when political expediency, dogma, ideology or whatever might change things but I'm not aware of it happening in Wales recently, except for the First Minister's personal decision to cancel the M4 Relief Road.
 

Falcon1200

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I bet many people have no idea there's a direct Inverness-Fort William coach service and just make an excessively long rail journey

Have to disagree; I seriously doubt if anyone, ever, has chosen to travel between Inverness and Fort William (65 miles apart by road) by rail (300 plus miles!) without checking, or being told, that there was an easier way. In fact, in the early 1980s, long before the internet made finding such information so easy, I made that very bus journey and do not recall any problem at all in establishing that it existed, when it ran and where from. Just looking at a map shows instantly that making the journey by train is ridiculous.
 

Bletchleyite

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Have to disagree; I seriously doubt if anyone, ever, has chosen to travel between Inverness and Fort William (65 miles apart by road) by rail (300 plus miles!) without checking, or being told, that there was an easier way. In fact, in the early 1980s, long before the internet made finding such information so easy, I made that very bus journey and do not recall any problem at all in establishing that it existed, when it ran and where from. Just looking at a map shows instantly that making the journey by train is ridiculous.

You're on a rail forum. You're therefore much more public transport aware than most, simply because of that.

Why make it hard for people?
 

Dai Corner

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Have to disagree; I seriously doubt if anyone, ever, has chosen to travel between Inverness and Fort William (65 miles apart by road) by rail (300 plus miles!) without checking, or being told, that there was an easier way. In fact, in the early 1980s, long before the internet made finding such information so easy, I made that very bus journey and do not recall any problem at all in establishing that it existed, when it ran and where from. Just looking at a map shows instantly that making the journey by train is ridiculous.
Except many people don't look at a map these days. They look at a journey planning website. The TfW one does know about the bus between Aberystwyth and Carmarthen which is why the story which started this thread is so ridiculous.

I haven't checked to see if the ScotRail journey planner knows about the bus/coach services and recommends them when they're better than trains.
 

A S Leib

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Except many people don't look at a map these days. They look at a journey planning website. The TfW one does know about the bus between Aberystwyth and Carmarthen which is why the story which started this thread is so ridiculous.

I haven't checked to see if the ScotRail journey planner knows about the bus/coach services and recommends them when they're better than trains.
Putting in Fort William to Inverness for 07:00 tomorrow it recommends arriving at Glasgow Queen Street at 11:33 and departing at 12:07. The only other TOC website which I know shows some non-train services is SWR for cross-Solent journeys.
 

dk1

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Have to disagree; I seriously doubt if anyone, ever, has chosen to travel between Inverness and Fort William (65 miles apart by road) by rail (300 plus miles!) without checking, or being told, that there was an easier way. In fact, in the early 1980s, long before the internet made finding such information so easy, I made that very bus journey and do not recall any problem at all in establishing that it existed, when it ran and where from. Just looking at a map shows instantly that making the journey by train is ridiculous.

Yes even I who gets travel sick on coaches and free rail travel dosed myself up for that journey in 2019. Was actually very pleasant going beside Loch Ness and the Caledonian Canal locks. I did sit at the front which helped.
 

zwk500

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At the moment. It is not an immutable law of the universe that the government will determine what transit projects to fund by their BCRs.
Could you point to a government that determines which* transit projects to fund by a measure other than BCRs? (No, it's not a trick question).
 

LNW-GW Joint

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There was a Highlands and Islands timetable book (bus, train, ferry) for many years in the pre-internet age, I don't know if it still exists.
I think it was a Scottish tourist board initiative.
 

D6130

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Even if Carmarthen-Aberystwyth was still open now, I can’t see it being much more lively than the Central Wales now is, in other words a few 153s per day.
I would have thought that the principal potential traffic flow for the line would be students travelling to and from Lampeter University....and even that would see massive peaks and troughs at or between the beginning and end of term. I often wonder whether it would attract more students if there were better public transport connections. IIRC, at the time of the line closure in 1965, what is now the university was just a small Church of Wales theological college....but it has expanded considerably since then. (The daughter of a friend of ours studied there in the 1990s).
And my old 1930s OS map shows how curvy the line was - following contours where possible.
You only have to take a trip on the Gwili railway - which comprises the first six miles or so of the original line from Carmarthen - to see how sharply-curved and steeply-graded it was....although looking at such maps, I should think that the middle section of the line between Pencader and Pont Llanio may have been a little faster.
 

Dai Corner

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I would have thought that the principal potential traffic flow for the line would be students travelling to and from Lampeter University....and even that would see massive peaks and troughs at or between the beginning and end of term. I often wonder whether it would attract more students if there were better public transport connections. IIRC, at the time of the line closure in 1965, what is now the university was just a small Church of Wales theological college....but it has expanded considerably since then. (The daughter of a friend of ours studied there in the 1990s).
If there was the best part of £1bn available do we think Lampeter would choose a railway station or academic and accommodation facilities?
 
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