Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!
Of course if another operator takes on the locos and stock the Mk5s wouldn't be available 'over ensuing years' anyway. It's rather unlikely they'll be sitting around in a siding somewhere just waiting for the call back to TPE.
Yes, should not forget the possibility of use elsewhere. But I think it highly likely the 68s will be gainfully employed on freight services quite quickly (speculation but to retire 37s etc). So there is another nail in the coffin for Mk5s - no locos !.
Yes, should not forget the possibility of use elsewhere. But I think it highly likely the 68s will be gainfully employed on freight services quite quickly (speculation but to retire 37s etc). So there is another nail in the coffin for Mk5s - no locos !.
Although it is true that another operator of the Mk5s would 100% need the 68s there is a problem because I believe the 68s are more in demand than the Mk5s.
My expectation is that there is enough freight demand for the 68s that they will be snapped up before anyone looks at uses for the Mk5s. I could be wrong. The 68s used by TPE are hired from DRS so DRS will be keen to find uses for the 68s after June 2024 regardless of what happens to the Mk5s. I believe DRS don't own the Mk5s so the Mk5s are not DRSs problem.
Unless a new role is found immediately in June 2024 for the then off lease Mk5s DRS will want their 68s to be used by anyone possible. I can believe the 68s will be replacements for older locomotives at other freight operators or even DRSs own legacy fleet (bye bye 12LDA28Cs and 12CSVTs etc).
Obviously a future operator of the Mk5s could bid higher for the 68s to get the 68s back but that will put the fleet costs up for that operator. Also I wonder if DRS might even favour a lower value lease to a freight operator (or themselves) if that meant a more reliable long term lease. Why would DRS take a risk on the Mk5s being used consistently for a long time. So plenty of scope for more nails in the Mk5 coffin.
Currently seven of the TPE sets no longer have a 68 attached. Some of those 68s are arguably on maintenance and other things related to Mk5 use. But some of the 68s seem to be spread far and wide - so already getting alternative use I suspect.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
See below for where the 68s meant for TPE are.
I have made bold the 68s that I think have drifted from Mk5 use.
The optimist in me hopes 68025 is at Stoke Marcroft for modifications to make the 68s quieter.
Also the list at the bottom of the TPE sets not poised for service and now bereft of a locomotive, I think that used to be rare ?.
Regarding the Mk5A sets at Crewe South Yard with no loco, that has been common over the past two years. This exposes another of the TPE ‘alternative facts’ when they claimed that they ‘pay for 13 sets but only 6 are ever available to us’. Yes, that’s because TPE never got themselves organised to deploy more than 6 sets.
The thing that’s often missing in this thread is the appalling political optics of (nearly) new trains that were to be used in the North not being used there. Whilst it seems many enthusiasts are happy to just write off that aspiration, it really is poor politically.
If you watch any of the recent Transport for the North videos on YouTube, you will hear just how hacked off the Metro Mayors and northern councillors are with this decision. Talk of new trains coming by the end of the decade, ten years after the Nova fleets should have been in traffic, doesn’t really seem like a particularly good deal.
If you look at many of the claims in the TPE booklet, they are either wildly optimistic, delusional or just patently not true.
Looking, for example, at fleet size. There’s a claim that even after removing the Class 68/Mk5A sets the fleet will still be 60% bigger than in 2018. I’ve no idea if that’s true looking at the fleet as a whole. Looking though at the North and South Routes combined it’s simply not true:
2018: Class 185 has 51 sets
51 x 1.6 = 81.6 so round up to 82 sets
Currently
Class 185 has 51 sets
Class 802 has 19 sets
Class 68/Mk5A has 13 sets
That gives a total of 83 sets.
Subtract off the 13 Class 68/Mk5A sets and you are down to 70 sets, representing only a 40% increase.
Worth bearing in mind too that in the December 2023 timetable there’s a Class 802 deployed on the TPE Anglo-Scottish WCML route, plus the Edinburgh-Newcastle shuttles.
Also worthy of consideration is just how crowded the TPE services were back in 2018/19.
A post that often seems to crop up is ‘but with careful diagramming all the Class 185s should be 6-car’. Look at the reality though with the December 2023 ‘tweaked’ timetable. Even with the slashing of services, there are still a significant number of 3-car Class 185 diagrams…
Regarding DRS deployment of Class 68s, I don’t know enough about their operations or business plan to comment if they really need an additional 14 Class 68s to replace a handful of Class 37s that for most of the year sit around in various sidings or are stored/under repair at various depots.
What is worth noting is that 68019-68032 are owned by Beacon Rail, who also own the Mk5A stock. I think it’s likely to be Beacon rather than DRS who have the final say on the deployment of the locos.
Regarding the often 3 car 185s when calculations show they can always be 6 car, is this connected to competency of joining 2 sets together? I'm sure somewhere on this forum I read that drivers do not generally have this competency.
Unless a new role is found immediately in June 2024 for the then off lease Mk5s DRS will want their 68s to be used by anyone possible. I can believe the 68s will be replacements for older locomotives at other freight operators or even DRSs own legacy fleet (bye bye 12LDA28Cs and 12CSVTs etc).
Although it is true that another operator of the Mk5s would 100% need the 68s there is a problem because I believe the 68s are more in demand than the Mk5s.
My expectation is that there is enough freight demand for the 68s that they will be snapped up before anyone looks at uses for the Mk5s. I could be wrong. The 68s used by TPE are hired from DRS so DRS will be keen to find uses for the 68s after June 2024 regardless of what happens to the Mk5s. I believe DRS don't own the Mk5s so the Mk5s are not DRSs problem.
Unless a new role is found immediately in June 2024 for the then off lease Mk5s DRS will want their 68s to be used by anyone possible. I can believe the 68s will be replacements for older locomotives at other freight operators or even DRSs own legacy fleet (bye bye 12LDA28Cs and 12CSVTs etc).
Clearly any potential operator of the Mk5s would also hire Class 68s from DRS as part of the traction and stock requirement. Nobody is going to go for Mk5s without suitable locomotives to work with the stock, simple as that.
Class 185 plus Class 802 gives 248 vehicles so a 62% increase in vehicles.
However, take out the Class 802 WCML diagram, plus the ones used on the Edinburgh-Newcastle shuttles and the increase will still be less than the claimed 60%.
Regarding the Mk5A sets at Crewe South Yard with no loco, that has been common over the past two years. This exposes another of the TPE ‘alternative facts’ when they claimed that they ‘pay for 13 sets but only 6 are ever available to us’. Yes, that’s because TPE never got themselves organised to deploy more than 6 sets.
The thing that’s often missing in this thread is the appalling political optics of (nearly) new trains that were to be used in the North not being used there. Whilst it seems many enthusiasts are happy to just write off that aspiration, it really is poor politically.
If you watch any of the recent Transport for the North videos on YouTube, you will hear just how hacked off the Metro Mayors and northern councillors are with this decision. Talk of new trains coming by the end of the decade, ten years after the Nova fleets should have been in traffic, doesn’t really seem like a particularly good deal.
If you look at many of the claims in the TPE booklet, they are either wildly optimistic, delusional or just patently not true.
Looking, for example, at fleet size. There’s a claim that even after removing the Class 68/Mk5A sets the fleet will still be 60% bigger than in 2018. I’ve no idea if that’s true looking at the fleet as a whole. Looking though at the North and South Routes combined it’s simply not true:
2018: Class 185 has 51 sets
51 x 1.6 = 81.6 so round up to 82 sets
Currently
Class 185 has 51 sets
Class 802 has 19 sets
Class 68/Mk5A has 13 sets
That gives a total of 83 sets.
Subtract off the 13 Class 68/Mk5A sets and you are down to 70 sets, representing only a 40% increase.
Worth bearing in mind too that in the December 2023 timetable there’s a Class 802 deployed on the TPE Anglo-Scottish WCML route, plus the Edinburgh-Newcastle shuttles.
Also worthy of consideration is just how crowded the TPE services were back in 2018/19.
A post that often seems to crop up is ‘but with careful diagramming all the Class 185s should be 6-car’. Look at the reality though with the December 2023 ‘tweaked’ timetable. Even with the slashing of services, there are still a significant number of 3-car Class 185 diagrams…
Regarding DRS deployment of Class 68s, I don’t know enough about their operations or business plan to comment if they really need an additional 14 Class 68s to replace a handful of Class 37s that for most of the year sit around in various sidings or are stored/under repair at various depots.
What is worth noting is that 68019-68032 are owned by Beacon Rail, who also own the Mk5A stock. I think it’s likely to be Beacon rather than DRS who have the final say on the deployment of the locos.
My bold - I had forgotten that !. So Beacon Rail might have influence over the future use of of 68s. Lets just hope they see a guaranteed future use for the Mk5s before someone else asks to use the 68s !.
I agree a solid full time year round use for the Mk5s would dictate more demand for the 68s than if they just replace seasonally used locomotives. That leaves the likes of GBRF who seem to always need more locomotives. Possibly the operators moving stock around the country ?. I am trying to avoid speculation about future uses of 68s but I bet Beacon rail are doing so !.
As for capacity.
Not sure on your arithmetic BUT :-
Assuming TPE keep all the 185s then they have added the 802s and 397s and dropped 350s so there is an increase in stock available even without the Mk5s. BUT how many extra services ?. More importantly - if there is enough stock now then how come so many services operated by 185s seem to be short formed ?. So one way or another I don't see the Mk5s as surplus.
Clearly any potential operator of the Mk5s would also hire Class 68s from DRS as part of the traction and stock requirement. Nobody is going to go for Mk5s without suitable locomotives to work with the stock, simple as that.
Your right and that is what makes me see the Mk5s as hard to re-use if not used soon. I can see the 68s getting snapped up before there is even hope of the Mk5s finding use.
Looking, for example, at fleet size. There’s a claim that even after removing the Class 68/Mk5A sets the fleet will still be 60% bigger than in 2018. I’ve no idea if that’s true looking at the fleet as a whole. Looking though at the North and South Routes combined it’s simply not true:
In 2018 it was 51 * 185's & 10 * 350/4 = 193 in Dec 2023 it's 51 * 185, 12 * 397 & 19 * 802 = 308 vehicles so 59.6% increase as per TPE's statement which relates to the TPE fleet not the North route only. Given the 802's are 25m presumable the seat numbers are more than that.
A post that often seems to crop up is ‘but with careful diagramming all the Class 185s should be 6-car’. Look at the reality though with the December 2023 ‘tweaked’ timetable. Even with the slashing of services, there are still a significant number of 3-car Class 185 diagrams…
Not seen TPE quote that all 185's will be doubles, it's not possible and wasn't possible under the original franchise plans when 21 * 185's left TPE. The remaining 30 units could not have covered doubles on all Cleethorpes, Hull and remaining Saltburn services that weren't MkV's.
However, take out the Class 802 WCML diagram, plus the ones used on the Edinburgh-Newcastle shuttles and the increase will still be less than the claimed 60%.
In 2018 TPE still subleased 185s to Northern for Manchester Airport to Barrow/Windermere services. Northern's 195s, which eventually took over these services, did not start to enter service until 2019.
TPE also had some 185 WCML diagrams, because of the inadequate size of the 350 fleet.
So the 185 fleet was not deployed exclusively on the North and South routes.
All TPE coaches are to get moquette seating and other improvements. With other servicing requirements how many units will that take out? I recall the day one hit a heard of cows on the WCML and 2 185s deputised for the damaged units for many months causing short forms on South Pennine.
Not seen TPE quote that all 185's will be doubles, it's not possible and wasn't possible under the original franchise plans when 21 * 185's left TPE. The remaining 30 units could not have covered doubles on all Cleethorpes, Hull and remaining Saltburn services that weren't MkV's.
This reminds me - brings up my feeling that TPE must be trying to replace their new Mk5s with 21 Class 185s that they were going to hand back.
Mk5s x 13 x 5car = 65 coaches.
185s x 21 x 3car = 63 coaches.
On the face of it an even swap but a loss of intercity style seats though.
Does not seem to be resulting in so many pairs of 185s in service though ?.
Not seen TPE quote that all 185's will be doubles, it's not possible and wasn't possible under the original franchise plans when 21 * 185's left TPE. The remaining 30 units could not have covered doubles on all Cleethorpes, Hull and remaining Saltburn services that weren't MkV's.
In 2018 TPE still subleased 185s to Northern for Manchester Airport to Barrow/Windermere services. Northern's 195s, which eventually took over these services, did not start to enter service until 2019.
TPE also had some 185 WCML diagrams, because of the inadequate size of the 350 fleet.
So the 185 fleet was not deployed exclusively on the North and South routes.
This reminds me - brings up my feeling that TPE must be trying to replace their new Mk5s with 21 Class 185s that they were going to hand back.
Mk5s x 13 x 5car = 65 coaches.
185s x 21 x 3car = 63 coaches.
On the face of it an even swap but a loss of intercity style seats though.
Does not seem to be resulting in so many pairs of 185s in service though ?.
With the extension of services to Redcar and then Saltburn, plus the Cleethorpes services running over the CLC to Liverpool were accounted for, the intention was to stand down 15 of the 3-Car Class 185s.
That gives a loss of
15 x 3 = 45 vehicles
But standing down Class 68/Mk5A gives a loss of
13 x 5 = 65 vehicles
Worth bearing in mind that at the moment demand has been suppressed by the awful service. With a more stable service then surely at least some demand will start to come back. That has certainly been the experience on other operators…
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
All TPE coaches are to get moquette seating and other improvements. With other servicing requirements how many units will that take out? I recall the day one hit a heard of cows on the WCML and 2 185s deputised for the damaged units for many months causing short forms on South Pennine.
That’s a good point. The Class 185s have been very good units in terms of reliability, but I wonder how units that are now 17 years old and have worked very intensively are going to stand up to even more intensive diagramming.
With the extension of services to Redcar and then Saltburn, plus the Cleethorpes services running over the CLC to Liverpool were accounted for, the intention was to stand down 15 of the 3-Car Class 185s.
That makes me think - effectively would mean replacing all five car services (Mk5s) with three car (185) services. Certainly makes me think TPE are not hanging on for a recovery (or should it be growth) in passenger numbers.
Worth bearing in mind that at the moment demand has been suppressed by the awful service. With a more stable service then surely at least some demand will start to come back. That has certainly been the experience on other operators…
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
That’s a good point. The Class 185s have been very good units in terms of reliability, but I wonder how units that are now 17 years old and have worked very intensively are going to stand up to even more intensive diagramming.
Not only are the 185s old but they have a door spacing less suited to longer distance services. Although maybe TPE view Redcar, Saltburn and Cleethorpes as deserving of more suburban stock ?. With that in mind I could see more alternative uses for the spare 185s than the TPE Mk5s at other TOCS though both are microfleets. Of course the spare 185s are not microfleets from TPEs point of view !.
That makes me think - effectively would mean replacing all five car services (Mk5s) with three car (185) services. Certainly makes me think TPE are not hanging on for a recovery (or should it be growth) in passenger numbers.
This reminds me - brings up my feeling that TPE must be trying to replace their new Mk5s with 21 Class 185s that they were going to hand back.
Mk5s x 13 x 5car = 65 coaches.
185s x 21 x 3car = 63 coaches.
On the face of it an even swap but a loss of intercity style seats though.
Does not seem to be resulting in so many pairs of 185s in service though ?.
Undeniably more comfortable Again, I find myself reminding you that not all tastes are the same. I find the Grammars somewhat thin and flimsy by comparison.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
That’s a good point. The Class 185s have been very good units in terms of reliability, but I wonder how units that are now 17 years old and have worked very intensively are going to stand up to even more intensive diagramming.
Most Mk 5 services are the York - Scarborough shuttles which don't need 5 carriages and can easily all be replaced with single 3 car 185s most of the day. I can see some have done their calculations and there will be a loss of seats but in context it won't be so bad, although a few more pairs will be needed for the south TP routes. There is some slack in the 185 fleet, they are mainly having availability problems due to the maintenance regimen, staffing issues and getting used to not needing to put out 47/51 units daily.
Aye - I also had in my mind the door positions not at coach ends on 185s !. Looking back I mentioned seats but omitted door position (in a cosy vestibule at the coach end on a Mk5). Maybe the autocorrect/keyboard decided Sets meant Seats ?.
Most Mk 5 services are the York - Scarborough shuttles which don't need 5 carriages and can easily all be replaced with single 3 car 185s most of the day. I can see some have done their calculations and there will be a loss of seats but in context it won't be so bad, although a few more pairs will be needed for the south TP routes. There is some slack in the 185 fleet, they are mainly having availability problems due to the maintenance regimen, staffing issues and getting used to not needing to put out 47/51 units daily.
The Mk5s were meant to get across the Pennines a lot more iirc ?. I suspect that would have lead to the 185s relegated to the more shuttle like 3-car services at the East end. There are plenty of trained staff for the Mk5s at the York end but a moderate shortage across the Pennines. So the Mk5s have gravitated towards the York/Scarborough shuttles only venturing back to their depot at Longsight every 2-3 days.
Trained staff is a significant factor because TPE decided that one service across the Pennines would be operated by different staff for different sections. So there is a Crew change at York on through services there and iirc also at Manchester for onwards to Liverpool. I think maybe Leeds is also a crew change point / barrier.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Nice indication of the 68s that are orf on other duties.
I see 68025 is deemed as still not away from TPE so the optimist in me hopes that it is for exhaust/silencer modifications to make the 68s more acceptable in Scarborough (and Marylebone and anywhere else people did not realise there has always been a railway).
Now I just need fate to dictate that TP07 is needed back in service (back to Longsight) and for the wind to blow the tarpaulin of 12802. That's all .
Aye - I also had in my mind the door positions not at coach ends on 185s !. Looking back I mentioned seats but omitted door position (in a cosy vestibule at the coach end on a Mk5). Maybe the autocorrect/keyboard decided Sets meant Seats ?.
The Mk5s were meant to get across the Pennines a lot more iirc ?. I suspect that would have lead to the 185s relegated to the more shuttle like 3-car services at the East end. There are plenty of trained staff for the Mk5s at the York end but a moderate shortage across the Pennines. So the Mk5s have gravitated towards the York/Scarborough shuttles only venturing back to their depot at Longsight every 2-3 days.
Trained staff is a significant factor because TPE decided that one service across the Pennines would be operated by different staff for different sections. So there is a Crew change at York on through services there and iirc also at Manchester for onwards to Liverpool. I think maybe Leeds is also a crew change point / barrier.
== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==
Thanks for the update.
Nice indication of the 68s that are orf on other duties.
I see 68025 is deemed as still not away from TPE so the optimist in me hopes that it is for exhaust/silencer modifications to make the 68s more acceptable in Scarborough (and Marylebone and anywhere else people did not realise there has always been a railway).
Now I just need fate to dictate that TP07 is needed back in service (back to Longsight) and for the wind to blow the tarpaulin of 12802. That's all .
If I remember the original (2016) intention was 6 on the Liverpool Scarboroughs and 6 on Middlesbrough (not Redcar) to Airports. That had to change when the 10 minute turnrounds were found to be insufficient. There was an issue with turning 6 or 5-car trains round at Middlesbrough so they had to be extended to Redcar, then again onto Saltburn (costing another unit, so 8 on the circuit).
Quite a lot of blame was put on other factors for the May 2018 timetable but for TPE at least this was a major issue.
Your right and that is what makes me see the Mk5s as hard to re-use if not used soon. I can see the 68s getting snapped up before there is even hope of the Mk5s finding use.
If I remember the original (2016) intention was 6 on the Liverpool Scarboroughs and 6 on Middlesbrough (not Redcar) to Airports. That had to change when the 10 minute turnrounds were found to be insufficient. There was an issue with turning 6 or 5-car trains round at Middlesbrough so they had to be extended to Redcar, then again onto Saltburn (costing another unit, so 8 on the circuit).
Quite a lot of blame was put on other factors for the May 2018 timetable but for TPE at least this was a major issue.
Don't forget that running 6 car 185s into Manchester Airport ran into difficulties for platform space resulting in trains having to be split at Piccadilly thus adding complexity, time and operational risk.
Not when I click on the link, and I certainly haven't subscribed.
This is the final section of the article, copied and pasted:
Chiltern next for Mk 5As?
Although describing the decision to remove the Nova 3s as ‘temporary’, Mr Jackson confirmed that as it stands TPE does not have any plans to reintroduce the sets. Discussing the future of the Nova 3s, Rail Minister Huw Merriman told the Transport Committee: ‘I have asked a series of questions internally of my team about the consequences of putting the rolling stock back, the financials and how it can then be reintroduced. There is currently a body of work being put together for me so that I can actually help make those decisions. It is live.’
Whilst a number of Mk 5a vehicles have been affected by cracks around the yaw damper mounting points, it is understood a resolution to the issue has been developed and a range of other problems which have beset the Mk 5a vehicles are close to being resolved, enabling owner Beacon to offer the fleet to other operators. Chiltern Railways has been working on a solution aimed at reducing the noise emanating from the Class 68 locomotives, which haul its rakes of Mk 3 coaches, and sources have suggested this could pave the way for the Mk 5a sets to move to Chiltern to replace the ageing Mk 3s. PS/Tony Miles
That would mainly rely on a solution to the noise levels produced by 68s. Chiltern has to resolve the noise level issue otherwise the 68s are not usable.
It would not rely so heavily on 68s being available in the sense that Chiltern already use 68s for the services in mind. It would be likely that they would swap 68s though as the TPE 68s are adapted to work with the Mk5s but no net loss of 68s.
Anyone any ideas on likely formations, longer then 5-car ?.
how likely is it that all 66 coaches would be used (14 + 39 + 13) ?.
We are aware of an issue with emails from the Forum to Microsoft-based email accounts (hotmail/outlook/live.com email addresses). This is being looked into currently, thanks for your patience meanwhile.