Russia invades Ukraine

[brad465]

The Russians have gained a few hundred metres in places overnight but by god, it was a bloodbath for them.

WarMonitor claims 15 tanks and 30 IFVs were lost on the Russian side in the process:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1712389734385742217

Ukrainian forces have repelled a large scale encircling operation attempted around Avdiivka in the process of this they destroyed 15 tanks and 30 IFVs of Russian forces over the last couple days.

 

[najaB]

WarMonitor claims 15 tanks and 30 IFVs were lost on the Russian side in the process

So that's another hundred or so (most likely drafted) Russian men who won't be going back to their families. I don't know how Putin can sleep at night.

 

[dgl]

So that's another hundred or so (most likely drafted) Russian men who won't be going back to their families. I don't know how Putin can sleep at night.

Easily, knowing a lot of Russians seem gullible and can be tricked into thinking noting is wrong, plus it's not him that's dying!

 

[Welly]

I don't know how Putin can sleep at night.

A nice mug of Horlicks!

 

[brad465]

So that's another hundred or so (most likely drafted) Russian men who won't be going back to their families. I don't know how Putin can sleep at night.

I suspect he had a few sleepless nights around the time of the Wagner coup attempt, but otherwise he's probably not bothered.

 

[jon0844]

A nice mug of Horlicks!

I guess he won't risk tea, and he presumably sleeps on the ground floor.

 

[brad465]

I guess he won't risk tea, and he presumably sleeps on the ground floor.

Putin doesn't fly, not a joke apparently he uses armoured trains now.

Of course he can't go abroad to any ICC-supporting country, or he'll be arrested - he couldn't attend the recent BRICS summit in person for this very reason, as hosts South Africa recognise the ICC.

 

[Pete_uk]

The first pilots who have gone to the USA to train on F16s will start this week.
Classroom theory > simulator > F16s

 

[najaB]

Classroom theory > simulator > F16s

> Su-27 in flames...

 

[Pete_uk]

Let's hope so!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Oct 2023 ==

Day 600

 

[najaB]

Day 600

Longest three-day war in history.

 

[brad465]

Let's hope so!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 16 Oct 2023 ==

Day 600

Longest three-day war in history.

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1713890910574981580

Day 600 of my 3 day war. Russia cannot continue to fight without North Korean ammo which means I have reduced Russia to merely Pyongyang’s proxy so they can fight USA to the last Russian. I remain a master strategist.

Also, the Russian Finance Minister has admitted China have been supplying drones. I get the impression this was not supposed to have been said out loud, and if so that Minister may wish to avoid windows, tea, flights, etc. from here.

Russia-Ukraine war as it happened: Putin to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing in first visit outside former Soviet Union since March

Russian president and his Chinese counterpart will hold talks in Putin’s furthest visit since international arrest warrant issued in March

www.theguardian.com

Russia’s drones are mostly sourced from China and Moscow will spend more than $618m on a new national project to develop drone manufacturing, finance minister Anton Siluanov has said.

Siluanov said:

We are spending additional money on drones – and more than 60 billion roubles on a new national project to develop our own drone base.
The task is that 41% of all drones by 2025 should have the label ‘Made in Russia’.
Today, drones are mainly from the People’s Republic of China.

Drones have played a major part in the war in Ukraine, being used for attacks and reconnaissance.

 

[Pete_uk]

ATACMS used the other night for the first time!

 

[GS250]

> Su-27 in flames...

Not sure exactly what spec the F16s are that they are getting? But yes for all the show offy aerobatic qualities of Russian aircraft...the avionics of Western Aircraft could make a huge difference.

 

[uglymonkey]

F16 is air superiority isn't it? Not ground attack?

 

[GS250]

F16 is air superiority isn't it? Not ground attack?

It's actually design was multirole. Different operators have tailored it for a variety of missions.

 

[JamesT]

F16 is air superiority isn't it? Not ground attack?

The design started off life as air-to-air, but it has been multi-role very soon afterwards. F16s have been used in air-to-ground since 1981 at least. (Israel's attack on the Osirak reactor)

 

[Cloud Strife]

ATACMS used the other night for the first time!

This is worth paying attention to. Russia showed a shell, but it had a 1996 production date. Effectively, we can now see that 90s NATO technology is capable of easily getting through Russia's air defences in 2023. If that isn't setting off alarm bells, what will?

 

[Annetts key]

To be fair, the only things that it appears that the Russian SAM systems appear to be able to successfully destroy or hit are Russian aircraft

And maybe other aircraft.

Despite various claims, I’m not convinced the Russians have successfully hit any Western made missiles (apart from possibly the AGM-88 HARM).

 

[Mogster]

This is worth paying attention to. Russia showed a shell, but it had a 1996 production date. Effectively, we can now see that 90s NATO technology is capable of easily getting through Russia's air defences in 2023. If that isn't setting off alarm bells, what will?

Until they are used these things tend to be serviceable and upgradeable though don’t they? Like a mini aircraft. Way too expensive to just chuck away your unused stock every few years.

 

[Annetts key]

Until they are used these things tend to be serviceable and upgradeable though don’t they? Like a mini aircraft. Way too expensive to just chuck away your unused stock every few years.

True, but only if it’s decided to fund upgrades. And normally the upgraded item is marked so that it’s possible to tell if it’s been upgraded.

Certain railway equipment is always marked with a (hardware) modification state (mod state). And if it’s a computer/microcontroller system, there is also a software version. I understand some Western military equipment is similar. Although it’s likely to vary between different manufacturers and different countries.

 

[AM9]

True, but only if it’s decided to fund upgrades. And normally the upgraded item is marked so that it’s possible to tell if it’s been upgraded.

Certain railway equipment is always marked with a (hardware) modification state (mod state). And if it’s a computer/microcontroller system, there is also a software version. I understand some Western military equipment is similar. Although it’s likely to vary between different manufacturers and different countries.

Yes, all equipment that is either fitted to or carried by defence vehicles (which includes aircraft, land vehicles and ships), is traceable both in design standard, build standard and component/material batch records. With software/firmware configurable items, that is also signified either by markings on the device, or for hardware that is likely to be unrecoverable once deployed, on tracking logs. Despite Russia's apparent ad hoc mode of operation, there will be a certain level of the above identification if only to verify interchageability in service.

 

[GS250]

The design started off life as air-to-air, but it has been multi-role very soon afterwards. F16s have been used in air-to-ground since 1981 at least. (Israel's attack on the Osirak reactor)

Yep...my initial assessment was incorrect. It's usually logical for an air to air platform to be converted air to ground at some point. Appears the F16 was converted fairly early in its lifecycle.

With reasonably up to date avionics and weapons the F16 will certainly (on paper) be capable of taking down SU27s and the like.

All depends on just how effectively they can get the pilots converted though.

 

[najaB]

With reasonably up to date avionics and weapons the F16 will certainly (on paper) be capable of taking down SU27s and the like.

They are of the same era - Su-27 first flight was 1977 and the F-16 is slightly older at 1974 - so would have been near-peers in the 1980s/90s. But the question is how much development work has gone into the later tranches of the Su-27 compared to the F-16? The latest block F-16s have pretty much only the basic airframe in common with the 1980s version of the plane. I dare say that the Su-27 development has been much more modest.

 

[brad465]

When I first saw rumours Putin may have had a recent heart attack I thought it's probably just wild speculation. Now that the Kremlin has officially denied it, along with denying the use of body doubles, maybe this did really happen:

Kremlin says Putin is healthy, laughs off body double rumours

The Kremlin on Tuesday denied a report that President Vladimir Putin was ill, and laughed off persistent rumours that he used body doubles to cover for him in public appearances.

www.reuters.com

MOSCOW, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The Kremlin on Tuesday denied a report that President Vladimir Putin was ill, and laughed off persistent rumours that he used body doubles to cover for him in public appearances.

"Everything is fine with him, this is absolutely another fake," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when asked about an unsourced report by a Russian Telegram channel, picked up by some Western media, that the president had suffered a serious health episode on Sunday evening.

The spokesman laughed in response to a further question about body doubles, and denied that Putin had any.

"This belongs to the category of absurd information hoaxes that a whole series of media discuss with enviable tenacity. This evokes nothing but a smile," Peskov said.

Putin, a judo enthusiast who has long cultivated an "action man" image, turned 71 on Oct. 7. He maintains an intensive schedule of meetings and public appearances, many of them televised.

 

[Mogster]

They are of the same era - Su-27 first flight was 1977 and the F-16 is slightly older at 1974 - so would have been near-peers in the 1980s/90s. But the question is how much development work has gone into the later tranches of the Su-27 compared to the F-16? The latest block F-16s have pretty much only the basic airframe in common with the 1980s version of the plane. I dare say that the Su-27 development has been much more modest.

The Su27 seems to be very much a powerful full fat aircraft, like the F15 or Eurofighter, large capable and expensive. The F16 was designed to be light, cheap but still very capable, it’s more comparable to the Mig29.

Western electronics are supposed to be better. The modern data linking capabilities of Western aircraft are immense, sharing target information, integrating friendly aircraft with AWACS, ground forces, air defence and comms networks. All this situational and tactical information is spoon fed to pilots via helmet mounted displays. The question is will the Ukrainian airforce have access to NATO command and control?

 

[Pete_uk]

The radar systems on a F16 sees at least twice as far.
Their use will depend on what warheads they are supplied with.

BTW the Ukrainians have adapted the air to air Sidewinder missiles to operate surface to air.

Also, the Russians have talked about using one of their space launchers to hit Kiev

 

[Mogster]

The radar systems on a F16 sees at least twice as far.

I don’t think that’s the case, unless you take a very old unupgraded Su27 variant and the most recent F-16. With Western data linking systems the F-16 pilot most likely wouldn’t be relying on just internal sensor data though.

The most recent Su27 variants like the Su35 and upgraded older aircraft have very powerful radar and handy IR detection systems. The Su27 family are big powerful aircraft capable of lugging heavy radar systems with a large dish size. The F-16 is a very capable but still small and lightweight aircraft with the restrictions that brings.

I think there are still a lot of questions regarding how Ukraine will deploy its F-16s.

 

[brad465]

The Russians have gained a few hundred metres in places overnight but by god, it was a bloodbath for them.

And now this bloodbath is leading to mutinies, and in turn Russia are executing retreating soldiers, according to US intel:

Ukraine war: Russia executing own retreating soldiers, US says

The White House says heavy losses and poor morale are leading to mutinies in some units.

www.bbc.co.uk

Russia is executing soldiers who try to retreat from a bloody offensive in eastern Ukraine, the White House has said.
According to the US, some of the casualties suffered by Russia near Avdiivka were "on the orders of their own leaders".
Russian and Ukrainian troops have been locked into a fierce battle for the frontline town since mid-October.
Russia is thought to have suffered "significant" losses in this time.
Ukrainian estimates put the number of Russian casualties in Avdiivka at 5,000, while the US says that Russia lost "at least" 125 armoured vehicles and more than a battalion's worth of equipment.
A Ukrainian army spokesperson said that Russian troops were refusing to attack Ukrainian positions near Avdiivka because of heavy losses and that there had been mutinies in some units.
"Russia's mobilised forces remain under-trained, under-equipped and unprepared for combat, as was the case during their failed winter offensive last year," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in a briefing on Thursday.
He said that the Russian military "appears to be using what we would call 'human wave' tactics, just throwing masses of these poorly trained soldiers right into the fight."
"No proper equipment, no leadership, no resourcing, no support. It is unsurprising that Russian forces are suffering from poor morale," Mr Kirby added.
Taking Avdiivka - which lies near the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk - would allow Russian troops to push the front line back, making it harder for the Ukrainian forces to make further advances into Donetsk region.
Avdiivka has been all but abandoned by its 30,000 residents as Russian forces continue to pummel it. Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the situation as "particularly tough".
On Thursday, the US announced a new $150m (£123.7m) military assistance package for Ukraine that includes artillery and small-arms ammunition, as well as anti-tank weapons.
However, future aid to Ukraine is in doubt following the election of Republican Mike Johnson as speaker of the US House of Representatives earlier this week.
Mr Johnson - who is on the right wing of the Republican Party - is against further US aid to Ukraine and has previously supported amendments to block it.
The US is the largest military donor to Ukraine, having spent more than $46bn (£37bn) so far, plus tens of billions more in financial and humanitarian aid.

 

[GS250]

Again...the absolute disregard that senior Russians have for life is clear to see. Similar to Hammas really. If they are willing to kill their 'own' people...what will they do to the 'enemy'?