Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[Gloster]

Probably hopium from the inroads they made in some urban places that turned against the trend in local elections like Croydon, Leicester and Enfield. However Croydon had the context of a really incompetent incumbent Lab council, and no real lib dem presence , wether it translate nationally is a another question

They might get North Shropshire and Selby & Ainsty back, and even Mid-Bedfordshire and/or Tamworth if they lose there, but that would be about it. Even Chesham & Amersham, Somerton & Frome or Tiverton & Honiton would be a bit surprising.

 

[edwin_m]

They might get North Shropshire and Selby & Ainsty back, and even Mid-Bedfordshire and/or Tamworth if they lose there, but that would be about it. Even Chesham & Amersham, Somerton & Frome or Tiverton & Honiton would be a bit surprising.

Selby and Ainsty is subject to boundary changes that will favour Labour.

 

[DoubleLemon]

<SBIP>.

Interestingly, the Labour Party manifesto of 2019 stated that, if elected, a Labour government would repeal the FTPA as well, so they had no stomach for it either.

You get this sort of thing a lot on phone in Radio like LBC. etc. It's all labours fault the Conservative party are as they are. They made the Conservative party do it. Because they didn't stop them.

Not thy it's the torys fault. They would be honest, not corupt and racist if only soneone stopped them. It's a strawman argument of the highest order.

 

[nw1]

They already have 2 of the 3 Croydon MPs, and the inroads they made were mostly in the south. They'll be lucky to keep Croydon central, particularly given how much of a useless wet blanket their mayor has already proved to be

The Tories only have one, and no longer hold Croydon Central (I presume you mean the Tories, not Labour, as the "wet blanket" mayor appears to be a Tory).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Oct 2023 ==

Probably hopium from the inroads they made in some urban places that turned against the trend in local elections like Croydon, Leicester and Enfield. However Croydon had the context of a really incompetent incumbent Lab council, and no real lib dem presence , wether it translate nationally is a another question

Leicester would be surprising as it's a university city - not the sort of place I would expect to see Tory gains. It would certainly be bizarre to see the Tories lose somewhere like Esher and gain one of the Leicester constituencies!

Not sure how the demographic of Enfield differs from say Chingford but in the latter place the consensus suggests that Duncan Smith would be under threat, so if Enfield went Tory it would break the trend of nearby seats.

Unless the New Tory Heartlands will now be Outer London, due to ULEZ, and the "Red Wall" will move from the north to a circular wall around London.

 

[takno]

The Tories only have one, and no longer hold Croydon Central (I presume you mean the Tories, not Labour, as the "wet blanket" mayor appears to be a Tory).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Oct 2023 ==

Oh yes. I wasn't sure about central and apparently didn't read the website well enough. Don't fancy their chances of getting it even so. They very narrowly won the mayoral vote, and as far as I know a lot of that came down to traffic changes in the south of the borough.

 

[Gloster]

Oh yes. I wasn't sure about central and apparently didn't read the website well enough. Don't fancy their chances of getting it even so. They very narrowly won the mayoral vote, and as far as I know a lot of that came down to traffic changes in the south of the borough.

I would have thought that the borough’s finances (Private Eye’s passim ad nauseam) were probably a larger factor. Leicester has, I think, had a number of Labour scandals, although not as serious as Croydon.

 

[takno]

I would have thought that the borough’s finances (Private Eye’s passim ad nauseam) were probably a larger factor. Leicester has, I think, had a number of Labour scandals, although not as serious as Croydon.

The mayor was pretty independent of that. I mean it's hard to say it wasn't a factor, but to people who were interested it was fairly clearly a relatively small clique within the party, who actually kept services going at a reasonable level for a long time in the face of brutal cuts. The mayoral candidate was a fairly recent returnee, having left Croydon before it happened and was on record prior to the collapse opposing the leadership.

My feeling is that generally speaking national politics has a significant impact on local politics, but not so much vice-versa, where a large proportion of voters in GEs would be hard pushed to tell you who controls the council anyway.

 

[DC1989]

If the election were scheduled the same time as the mayoral election then the London tory MP's would most likely do a lot better. If not I'd be surprised if they'll have more than 10 after the next election

 

[renegademaster]

I would have thought that the borough’s finances (Private Eye’s passim ad nauseam) were probably a larger factor. Leicester has, I think, had a number of Labour scandals, although not as serious as Croydon.

We had a period of time where there was basically no grass cutting for what seemed like the whole year , and bin collection was very unreliable . It's got a bit better with the new administration but not hugely so

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Oct 2023 ==

The Tories only have one, and no longer hold Croydon Central (I presume you mean the Tories, not Labour, as the "wet blanket" mayor appears to be a Tory).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Oct 2023 ==



Leicester would be surprising as it's a university city - not the sort of place I would expect to see Tory gains. It would certainly be bizarre to see the Tories lose somewhere like Esher and gain one of the Leicester constituencies!

Not sure how the demographic of Enfield differs from say Chingford but in the latter place the consensus suggests that Duncan Smith would be under threat, so if Enfield went Tory it would break the trend of nearby seats.

Unless the New Tory Heartlands will now be Outer London, due to ULEZ, and the "Red Wall" will move from the north to a circular wall around London.

Takes I've heard from Tories is that BAME voters in general are the solid labour block they used to be and tending to vote more like White British.
But White British are hardly voting for them either , and their hasn't been much racial details in polls I've seen

 

[edwin_m]

If the election were scheduled the same time as the mayoral election then the London tory MP's would most likely do a lot better. If not I'd be surprised if they'll have more than 10 after the next election

What's your reasoning for this? You appear to be suggesting that Susan Hall is an electoral advantage to the party who would translate into more votes for the MPs, but I really don't see that. "Loony right" and culture wars don't tend to play well in London, and Uxbridge was a unique combination of time and place where ULEZ gave the Tories a narrow victory, having previously had a much larger majority.

 

[DC1989]

What's your reasoning for this? You appear to be suggesting that Susan Hall is an electoral advantage to the party who would translate into more votes for the MPs, but I really don't see that. "Loony right" and culture wars don't tend to play well in London, and Uxbridge was a unique combination of time and place where ULEZ gave the Tories a narrow victory, having previously had a much larger majority.

It's tricky. I spend alot of time in Havering and Bexley and both are still tory central. Hall has gone down very well there. She's certainty not going to be very good at attracting any moderates, but I think her chances are better than most think - mainly due to the mayoral election being changed to FPTP and the vote splitting but also because getting a third term as a politician is hard.

The reason I think that an election in May would benefit London tory MP's is that they'll run any GE campaign as hyper local anti Khan/Anti ULEZ/Anti house building (even though they are not connected) The tories in outer London blame everything on Khan anyway - I think it's a way that they can justify to themselves to keep voting conservative. ' Yes thing's are bad but it's all Khans fault!'

If there's a mayoral election in May and then a GE 5 months later it's much harder to run a campaign like that

Just my opinion of course and nationally it doesn't make enough of a difference to really change the outcome of a GE

 

[nw1]

It's tricky. I spend alot of time in Havering and Bexley and both are still tory central. Hall has gone down very well there. She's certainty not going to be very good at attracting any moderates, but I think her chances are better than most think - mainly due to the mayoral election being changed to FPTP and the vote splitting but also because getting a third term as a politician is hard.

Doubtless the Tory Government's decision, to deliberately increase their chances.

Replacing the old system by the undemocratic and backwards FPTP would surely not be done for reasons other than underhand motives.

 

[takno]

Doubtless the Tory Government's decision, to deliberately increase their chances.

Replacing the old system by the undemocratic and backwards FPTP would surely not be done for reasons other than underhand motives.

It absolutely was the government's decision, and they introduced it around the same time as the voter id. I don't think they've made any real attempt to pretend it was anything other than naked self-interest. I suspect if anything it might backfire - Andy Street for example got more second preference votes than Labour did in the first WM election. That's probably because it was only ever a single second preference rather than a comprehensive vote-til-you-boak setup, so you get people voting first-preference green and throwing away the second preference on lib-dems and vice versa.

Overall I think it's probably easier to make the case for tactical voting across the piece than it is to convince people to worry about and correctly complete a second preference.

 

[Gloster]

The Conservatives have produced another small proof of their desperation and willingness to ignore accepted practices if it suits them. While one major party is having its conference, it has been the practice for the other parties to remain quiet and not try to grab the limelight. Not this time.

Yesterday Sunak went off on a photo opportunity in Newark: it didn’t go well as he was asked why should people vote for him considering the mess left by his predecessor. He also seems to have tied himself in knots during a TV interview over why the plans for transport projects using the HS2 money was so full of errors. Today he seems to have been talking up HS2 going to Euston, but kept avoiding confirming that it definitely would.

 

[DC1989]

The Conservatives have produced another small proof of their desperation and willingness to ignore accepted practices if it suits them. While one major party is having its conference, it has been the practice for the other parties to remain quiet and not try to grab the limelight. Not this time.

Yesterday Sunak went off on a photo opportunity in Newark: it didn’t go well as he was asked why should people vote for him considering the mess left by his predecessor. He also seems to have tied himself in knots during a TV interview over why the plans for transport projects using the HS2 money was so full of errors. Today he seems to have been talking up HS2 going to Euston, but kept avoiding confirming that it definitely would.

And then tweeted he was in Nottingham ... I suppose from a Helicopter it's just a couple of minutes away

 

[edwin_m]

And then tweeted he was in Nottingham ... I suppose from a Helicopter it's just a couple of minutes away

I suppose he'll claim he's so good at delivering that the promised Nottingham-Newark rail enhancements have been delivered within a week of being promised, and achieved a dramatic journey time saving.

In fact now I think about it, that line was improved two or three years ago.

 

[Busaholic]

It's tricky. I spend alot of time in Havering and Bexley and both are still tory central. Hall has gone down very well there. She's certainty not going to be very good at attracting any moderates, but I think her chances are better than most think - mainly due to the mayoral election being changed to FPTP and the vote splitting but also because getting a third term as a politician is hard.

The reason I think that an election in May would benefit London tory MP's is that they'll run any GE campaign as hyper local anti Khan/Anti ULEZ/Anti house building (even though they are not connected) The tories in outer London blame everything on Khan anyway - I think it's a way that they can justify to themselves to keep voting conservative. ' Yes thing's are bad but it's all Khans fault!'

If there's a mayoral election in May and then a GE 5 months later it's much harder to run a campaign like that

Just my opinion of course and nationally it doesn't make enough of a difference to really change the outcome of a GE

It's interesting for someone like me, growing up quite near Bexley but a long while ago now, to see how the type of Tory politician, not only in that area but to an extent in Havering as well, has changed so dramatically. After all, Mr Common Market himself, Ted Heath was MP for Bexley forever, Cyril Townend, another 'one nation' Tory sat for Bexleyheath, Harold Macmillan graced the nearby Bromley seat, to be succeeded by John Hunt and Bob Neal, very much from the 'liberal' wing. Mind you, a certain Nadhim Zahawi stood in Erith and Thamesmead in 1997, failing miserably of course!

In Havering, before rabidly right wing Andrew Rossindell was elected in Romford, the seat was occupied by Michael Neubert, the ex-leader of Bromley Council and a very different kettle of fish. After Neubert was selected as candidate, he and his wife inspected and put in an offer on a house next door to mine in Blackheath, but I was relieved when it came to nothing.

Both areas were very pro Brexit and have seen pockets of overt racism of a white supremacist nature throughout this century so far. It's fair to say I moved away decades ago now, but I follow the news from there with interest.

 

[Thirteen]

It's tricky. I spend alot of time in Havering and Bexley and both are still tory central. Hall has gone down very well there. She's certainty not going to be very good at attracting any moderates, but I think her chances are better than most think - mainly due to the mayoral election being changed to FPTP and the vote splitting but also because getting a third term as a politician is hard.

The reason I think that an election in May would benefit London tory MP's is that they'll run any GE campaign as hyper local anti Khan/Anti ULEZ/Anti house building (even though they are not connected) The tories in outer London blame everything on Khan anyway - I think it's a way that they can justify to themselves to keep voting conservative. ' Yes thing's are bad but it's all Khans fault!'

If there's a mayoral election in May and then a GE 5 months later it's much harder to run a campaign like that

Just my opinion of course and nationally it doesn't make enough of a difference to really change the outcome of a GE

The issue with Susan Hall is she can't run her campaign on ULEZ alone, she needs some actually policies that are you know actually appealing but also she's put her foot in it a lot in terms of interviews. Outer London might vote for her but she'll struggle in Inner London.

Also, even if she does win, what happens if Labour get into Central Government? She's going to have put aside party politics and work with them in order to get funding for various things.

 

[nw1]

And then tweeted he was in Nottingham ... I suppose from a Helicopter it's just a couple of minutes away

He probably can't tell Newark from Nottingham.

 

[brad465]

He probably can't tell Newark from Nottingham.

Newark is an anagram of one of his nicknames.

 

[nw1]

Newark is an anagram of one of his nicknames.

Oh yes, it is, isn't it. Never knew that!

Sir I.H. Newark.

 

[Typhoon]

It's interesting for someone like me, growing up quite near Bexley but a long while ago now, to see how the type of Tory politician, not only in that area but to an extent in Havering as well, has changed so dramatically. After all, Mr Common Market himself, Ted Heath was MP for Bexley forever, Cyril Townend, another 'one nation' Tory sat for Bexleyheath, Harold Macmillan graced the nearby Bromley seat, to be succeeded by John Hunt and Bob Neal, very much from the 'liberal' wing. Mind you, a certain Nadhim Zahawi stood in Erith and Thamesmead in 1997, failing miserably of course!

...

Both areas were very pro Brexit and have seen pockets of overt racism of a white supremacist nature throughout this century so far. It's fair to say I moved away decades ago now, but I follow the news from there with interest.

I lived in the London Borough of Bexley (the northern part) in my teens after it was split off from Kent and still have relatives and friends there.

There is really a dividing line in Bexley (see below); the riverside part, which is more aligned to parts of the London Borough of Greenwich and, to a lesser extent, Dartford, and the inland bit which is probably more aligned to parts of Bromley.

I would add to your list of moderate MPs the late James Brokenshire, a May loyalist; and I agree with your final sentence. I am afraid that racism is a long term problem in the area. I can remember when south Asian families first moved into the area is numbers, mainly into rented three storey (+basement) Victorian houses that were too large for white families (the Asian occupants were usually extended families). Quite a few were Sikhs, which made them stand out more and some had a poor or different command of English to ours (we had a sort of 'street' language - when I went to Grammar school, I was mocked for my use of some words). I think the initial problem was not just that they were 'different' (we had a few long term quite elderly Afro-Caribbean residents but they went to the same church, also the teacher in 'Reception' was similar) but some made rapid progress. For instance, one took over the shop at the end of the next road and transformed it from a 'local shop for local people' and subsequently became a councillor. I would be sent to that shop for something we had run out of, rather than the one at the end of our street because it would be in stock, it would be cheaper and you didn't need a cast-iron stomach. I should add that there was a similar feeling towards Romany families (at least amongst some adults). I don't know whether that is still the case.
I was aware of the original British National Party and Colin Jordan as a child and, given the lack of media outlets, it must have been through leaflets or posters locally. I don't think that has gone away.

Dividing line as in https://democracy.bexley.gov.uk/documents/s109814/552860A4LeafletJune2023LATEST.pdf

 

[brad465]

Yeah the party of "law and order" is going to have some very tough questions coming its way:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1712136455248654640

Convicted rapists and burglars will be spared jail from next week after judges were told that the country’s prisons are full

 

[Gloster]

Yeah the party of "law and order" is going to have some very tough questions coming its way:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1712136455248654640

Ah, but they need the space to put all those woke anti-motorist protestors in: they are determined to deal with the really important crimes. Sprinkling glitter is not a crime.

 

[Typhoon]

Yeah the party of "law and order" is going to have some very tough questions coming its way:

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1712136455248654640

Convicted rapists will not be spared jail - something will be done to prevent that even if it means some of those currently inside who pose little threat (say for age or health reasons) are released earlier. Burglars - might depend on the offence. Unfortunately I can't read the story as it is behind a paywall.

This comes from years of underinvesting because 'prisoners deserve all they get' (despite it meaning unreformed prisoners eventually get let out eventually.) There are a few shining lights out there (like James Timpson) but not enough and I can't remember the last time government took steps to improve the situation - there are no votes in it.

Labour need to get their policies in place as well, whatever their policies, they will inevitably inherit full jails.

It will get people buying The Times though (and give a few ministers sleepless nights).

 

[TheSmiths82]

I think they have just lost the plot now. Do people really care about all this anti woke nonsense when people are struggling to buy food or pay their rent? Or the slightly better off spend half their life waiting for trains that never turn up?

 

[brad465]

Interesting:

MP Lisa Cameron defects from SNP to Conservatives

The East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow representative is being urged to quit to allow a by-election.

www.bbc.co.uk

SNP MP Lisa Cameron has announced that she has defected to the Conservatives.
The East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow representative was facing a selection contest to remain as the SNP's candidate at the next general election.
She said she quit because of a "toxic and bullying" culture within the party's Westminster group.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross both welcomed her to the party.
Dr Cameron, a former NHS clinical psychologist, said she had received support from Mr Sunak after her mental wellbeing deteriorated in recent weeks, but had no contact from the SNP leadership.

She rowed back on her support for Scottish independence, describing it as divisive. She said she would instead focus on "constructive policies".
The MP claimed previously that she had been "ostracised" by the SNP after speaking out over the handling of allegations against former Westminster chief whip Patrick Grady.
At the time, Dr Cameron did not rule out standing down and triggering a by-election if she did not win the SNP nomination.
The MP, who was challenged by party staffer Grant Costello, had been due to find out the results of the selection contest on Thursday.
SNP sources have told the BBC she was expected to lose.

Her seat is a relatively safe SNP, with Tories and Labour neck and neck in 2nd and 3rd. Not entirely sure who would win it in a by-election or General election, as incumbent she could give the Tories a boost, but their national polling will weigh against that.

 

[najaB]

Not entirely sure who would win it in a by-election or General election, as incumbent she could give the Tories a boost, but their national polling will weigh against that.

Depends on how popular/effective she has been as a constituency MP.

 

[Purple Train]

Interesting:

MP Lisa Cameron defects from SNP to Conservatives

The East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow representative is being urged to quit to allow a by-election.

www.bbc.co.uk

Her seat is a relatively safe SNP, with Tories and Labour neck and neck in 2nd and 3rd. Not entirely sure who would win it in a by-election or General election, as incumbent she could give the Tories a boost, but their national polling will weigh against that.

It would require a 12% swing for Labour to win in a by-election/GE, so I'd suggest it's exactly the kind of seat they would have to win in order to get into power.

 

[najaB]

It would require a 12% swing for Labour to win in a by-election/GE, so I'd suggest it's exactly the kind of seat they would have to win in order to get into power.

With the Tories actively trying to make themselves unpopular nationally and the SNP not doing anything particular to endear themselves to the electorate, that's not beyond the realm of the possible.