Keir Starmer and the Labour Party

[Butts]

If SNP fortunes don't improve over the next year, this result also gives the LibDems a very good chance of reclaiming their status as the 3rd party in Westminster. And it goes a long way to neutering any chance the Tories have of reusing the 'vote Labour get SNP' campaigning tactic from 2015 (I'm paraphrasing - I don't think they used those exact words, but as I recall it seemed to be quite a successful strategy for scaring some people off voting Labour).

Are you talking about Westminster as a whole or just Scotland ?

They need to concentrate on Wales where they currently have no MP's and a solitary MS = Lloyd George must be spinning in his grave.

 

[nw1]

Are you talking about Westminster as a whole or just Scotland ?

They need to concentrate on Wales where they currently have no MP's and a solitary MS = Lloyd George must be spinning in his grave.

Westminster as a whole, I suspect. Every chance that will happen if they make gains in the SE and SW. In Scotland I suspect they will remain in fourth place.

They won't pick up much in Wales, which seems to be clearly divided between Labour (ex-industrial areas), Plaid Cymru (more Welsh-speaking areas) and the Tories (rural, low-population areas).

It would be a waste. The Lib Dems need to focus on the more liberal parts of the Home Counties, the South West and a few seats round the periphery of other large cities that they have traditionally held (Hazel Grove, Solihull).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Westminster as a whole, I suspect. Every chance that will happen if they make gains in the SE and SW. In Scotland I suspect they will remain in fourth place.

Correct. I meant that the LibDems might overtake the SNP in terms of numbers of MPs in the House of Commons as a whole. I believe that has significance in terms of the 3rd party in the Commons having additional funding/Parliamentary time - which the LibDems lost when they fell behind the SNP in 2015 - although I'm not clear about the details of those rules.

 

[Typhoon]

Oh well, happens. Plenty of Tories around with a privileged upbringing, look at Sunak for example.

And Braverman attacking the self-made Elton John, who lived in a council house and went to a state school, just because he's pro-immigration is plenty of evidence that the Tories don't respect those who bring themselves up from humble beginnings all the time - only when it suits them. It's good to be a self-made person from humble beginnings, according to the Tories, it seems - but only if you are right-wing and not liberal. So Elton John no, Lee Anderson yes.

Attending, say, a Public School may help someone understand what is wrong with the Public School system - and, at age 11 (or earlier if they went to Prep school) it is very difficult to argue with one's parents that you really want to go to the state school up the road rather than the Public School,with its publicity machine.

I went to a Grammar School but that doesn't mean I am in favour of them, or that I should be. I quickly learnt that half my class (from the same primary school) spent month after month preparing for the Kent Tests (11+ equivalent), while we, at my primary school, had spent month after month learning about our environment, the history, the industrial background, above all, the river. I still remember some of what I learnt sixty years later. Meanwhile, of those that crammed for the Kent Tests, several left school at 15 without taking exams (and many more left at 16), while I know there are those from my primary school who would have benefitted from the same education as me but were dismissed as failures because their vocabulary (like mine) was pretty basic. By being there I saw the weaknesses in the system (for instance, being 'academic' doesn't mean you are good at everything).

 

[renegademaster]

Attending, say, a Public School may help someone understand what is wrong with the Public School system - and, at age 11 (or earlier if they went to Prep school) it is very difficult to argue with one's parents that you really want to go to the state school up the road rather than the Public School,with its publicity machine.

I went to a Grammar School but that doesn't mean I am in favour of them, or that I should be. I quickly learnt that half my class (from the same primary school) spent month after month preparing for the Kent Tests (11+ equivalent), while we, at my primary school, had spent month after month learning about our environment, the history, the industrial background, above all, the river. I still remember some of what I learnt sixty years later. Meanwhile, of those that crammed for the Kent Tests, several left school at 15 without taking exams (and many more left at 16), while I know there are those from my primary school who would have benefitted from the same education as me but were dismissed as failures because their vocabulary (like mine) was pretty basic. By being there I saw the weaknesses in the system (for instance, being 'academic' doesn't mean you are good at everything).

Loads of people left secondary moderns at 15 too back then, your anecdote is hardly an indictment of grammar schools

 

[JamesT]

Correct. I meant that the LibDems might overtake the SNP in terms of numbers of MPs in the House of Commons as a whole. I believe that has significance in terms of the 3rd party in the Commons having additional funding/Parliamentary time - which the LibDems lost when they fell behind the SNP in 2015 - although I'm not clear about the details of those rules.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ral-democrats-third-party-parliamentary-perks is an article around the SNP asking for various things when they became the third largest party. You would expect that were the positions to reverse then those things would switch back.

 

[brad465]

37.19% turnout compared to 65.5% at the 2019 General Election

Quite amusing to think in Scotland at the moment Labour and the SNP are led by Sarwar and Yousaf respectively who both went to the same Public School (Hutcheson's Grammar School in Glasgow), whilst the Tory Leader Douglas Ross went to Forres Academy. (A state school)

This result does tell us something, but a 37% turnout does undermine any conclusions somewhat.

A lot of SNP voters didnt bother and its striking that the torys lost their deposit, falling 11%.

If the result was close despite Labour winning it the low turnout argument would have some merit. But the margin of victory shows a clear upward trend for Labour in Scotland at the expense of the SNP, allowing for a distinct margin of error. Labour got more than double the number of votes the SNP got last night.

 

[KashmireHawker]

Think this thread title now needs changing, with my party getting two 20%+ swings in 2 1/2 months!

Yes, both were By-Elections but both were significant and cannot be underestimated.

 

[Kite159]

Think this thread title now needs changing, with my party getting two 20%+ swings in 2 1/2 months!

Yes, both were By-Elections but both were significant and cannot be underestimated.

Both were by-elections with low turnouts showing that voters for the other party couldn't be bothered turning out to vote.

 

[Typhoon]

Loads of people left secondary moderns at 15 too back then, your anecdote is hardly an indictment of grammar schools

My argument is that because there is this aura about Grammar Schools, primary schools then primed and parents now pay for tuition for children to jump through hoops to get to this 'elite' establishment for which they are unsuited. Also some children peak at certain ages while others progress, the late developer. By sending children to non-selective schools, they may not be able to stretch themselves in an area they are proved to be good at (for instance, languages or science). Meanwhile a child who may have real skills in a practical subject and be able to apply skills they learn in say science to it may end up stuck in a classroom learning classics (or something similar). I have nothing against, say, streaming because it allows fluidity but it is this hard break at 11 with minimal movement after that which is an issue with me.

To answer your point, although lots left at 15, some didn't and some of these might have been able to make a more valuable contribution if they had been able to, say, study physics or chemistry as separate subjects, taught be specialists.

 

[DC1989]

Both were by-elections with low turnouts showing that voters for the other party couldn't be bothered turning out to vote.

Yet only 20.7% of eligible voters voting for the Tory candidate in Uxbridge apparently shows how hated ULEZ is ! And is the basis of the entire Conservative strategy for the GE !

 

[Wynd]

If the result was close despite Labour winning it the low turnout argument would have some merit. But the margin of victory shows a clear upward trend for Labour in Scotland at the expense of the SNP, allowing for a distinct margin of error. Labour got more than double the number of votes the SNP got last night.

You are half correct. Torys switched to Labour, no surprises there. The Labour gains are only partially at SNP expense, and predominatly have the torys footing the bill.

A huge block of the SNP voter base didnt go out and vote, which had they done, could well have made the result much closer.

No doubt Labour are on the ascendancey, but to think it will mean the end of the SNP, not suggesting you said this, would be to misread the room.

 

[edwin_m]

You are half correct. Torys switched to Labour, no surprises there. The Labour gains are only partially at SNP expense, and predominatly have the torys footing the bill.

A huge block of the SNP voter base didnt go out and vote, which had they done, could well have made the result much closer.

No doubt Labour are on the ascendancey, but to think it will mean the end of the SNP, not suggesting you said this, would be to misread the room.

Some of the loss of SNP votes may be their voters being angry with Ferrier's behaviour, and this factor won't carry over to a general election. Those disgusted with the recent behaviour of the SNP but supportive of independence may register their protest by not voting at this by-election where it makes no practical difference, but then come back into the fold at a general election where it might. So the swing from SNP to Labour at a general election is likely to be less than it was here.

 

[Busaholic]

Some of the loss of SNP votes may be their voters being angry with Ferrier's behaviour, and this factor won't carry over to a general election. Those disgusted with the recent behaviour of the SNP but supportive of independence may register their protest by not voting at this by-election where it makes no practical difference, but then come back into the fold at a general election where it might. So the swing from SNP to Labour at a general election is likely to be less than it was here.

I agree, and suspect many erstwhile SNP supporters chose to stay at home on what I've heard was a wet day in the area. The very fact of a recall petition having triggered the election should have been an indication that the SNP were going to lose badly, so the actual result didn't surprise me. The SNP's choice of new leader, though, is unlikely to generate more support for the party as opposed to Scottish independence between 2019 and next year.

 

[nw1]

I agree, and suspect many erstwhile SNP supporters chose to stay at home on what I've heard was a wet day in the area.

Interesting. Given that the Tories need to rely on getting their core supporters out, I wonder if that will encourage them to do an early May or June election when the weather is more likely to be fine?

It would certainly work against a mid-winter election.

 

[Busaholic]

Interesting. Given that the Tories need to rely on getting their core supporters out, I wonder if that will encourage them to do an early May or June election when the weather is more likely to be fine?

It would certainly work against a mid-winter election.

The Tories would rue the day if they dragged the electorate into a January election, so, as far as I'm concerned, bring it on!

 

[The Ham]

The Tories would rue the day if they dragged the electorate into a January election, so, as far as I'm concerned, bring it on!

If the polls look bad (21% lead for Labour), try looking at the polls by age. 25-49 had Labour on 58% Vs 13% Tory (and it's single figures for 18-24!).

The only age group where Labour are behind the Tories is in the over 65's (the 50-64 age bracket is basically the same as the national polls), and guess who's most likely to be put off going to vote due to poor weather?

 

[yorkie]

Rutherglen and Hamilton West:

Labour 58.4% (+24%)
SNP 27.5% (-17%)
Con 3.9% (-11%)
LibDem 2.9% ( -2%)
Green 2.0% (didn't stand in 2019)

I worked out those %'s from the raw figures - they aren't yet up on any other site that I can see offhand, so I hope they are correct.

It looks to me like an extremely good result for Labour and pretty bad for everyone else (with some proviso that there may have been an element of the pro-Unionist vote voting tactically).

How Labour swept the SNP aside... in two minutes

The BBC’s Kirsten Campbell explains the significance of the result in Rutherglen and Hamilton West's by-election.

www.bbc.co.uk

Good news!

Greens are unelectable in their current form, so are an irrelevance really and of course it's great to see the SNP taking a hammering, as predicted.

As for the swing away from the Conservatives,
I hope that this also a sign of what's to come for the UK as a whole ; their current obsession with motoring is absolutely bonkers and I hope they get punished at the ballot box for it.

 

[Butts]

Good news!

Greens are unelectable in their current form, so are an irrelevance really and of course it's great to see the SNP taking a hammering, as predicted.

As for the swing away from the Conservatives,
I hope that this also a sign of what's to come for the UK as a whole ; their current obsession with motoring is absolutely bonkers and I hope they get punished at the ballot box for it.

Who knows if Labour get elected you may even get a banana on LNER ?

 

[nw1]

The Tories would rue the day if they dragged the electorate into a January election, so, as far as I'm concerned, bring it on!

Not for me though, 2025 is too long to wait. This government is already past its sell by date, so hoping for a spring election, and at the worst, an election this time next year.

Another year and a quarter of these jokers is too much.

Thankfully (IMO) I suspect the Tories will realise a winter election will harm their turnout (particularly - and I don't mean any offence by this - given that older voters, who might be more worried about going out in gales and snow, are more likely to vote Tory) and will not try to do something so silly.

 

[GS250]

As I've said before.....this has to be the worse thread title for the current situation

 

[Busaholic]

Not for me though, 2025 is too long to wait. This government is already past its sell by date, so hoping for a spring election, and at the worst, an election this time next year.

Another year and a quarter of these jokers is too much.

Thankfully (IMO) I suspect the Tories will realise a winter election will harm their turnout (particularly - and I don't mean any offence by this - given that older voters, who might be more worried about going out in gales and snow, are more likely to vote Tory) and will not try to do something so silly.

I was being flippant in suggesting the Tories should wait for January 2025 for maximum (negative) effect. Of course they should go as soon as possible before they've wrecked this country on a level akin to Pol Pot's on his. Whatever the weather on the day of the General Election I shall get to the polling station to cast my vote for the candidate with the best chance of deposing the particularly useless Conservative MP in my area, as many of the over 75 people I know will be doing.

 

[jfollows]

I was being flippant in suggesting the Tories should wait for January 2026 for maximum (negative) effect. Of course they should go as soon as possible before they've wrecked this country on a level akin to Pol Pot's on his. Whatever the weather on the day of the General Election I shall get to the polling station to cast my vote for the candidate with the best chance of deposing the particularly useless Conservative MP in my area, as many of the over 75 people I know will be doing.

Fortunately for us, January 2025 (28/1/25) is the latest I think they can wait for, I don't think they're going to wait this long anyway but it's not impossible which is why I've put £10 on it as a bet.

 

[nw1]

I was being flippant in suggesting the Tories should wait for January 2025 for maximum (negative) effect.

I realised that - just expressing the opinion that I'd prefer them out sooner even if it's a closer result than waiting that long!

 

[317 forever]

Some of the loss of SNP votes may be their voters being angry with Ferrier's behaviour, and this factor won't carry over to a general election. Those disgusted with the recent behaviour of the SNP but supportive of independence may register their protest by not voting at this by-election where it makes no practical difference, but then come back into the fold at a general election where it might. So the swing from SNP to Labour at a general election is likely to be less than it was here.

Indeed, leaving aside the small matter of boundary changes, my prediction is that Labour and the SNP will gain more votes next year than at the by-election but that net swing will mean a Labour victory by a lower percentage.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Oct 2023 ==

Post 875 from this closed thread https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...d-replaced-with-other-projects.255629/page-30 concludes

But regardless, the collapse of the SNP will likely put Starmer in number 10 on it's own, regardless of any HS2 effect.

Hardly. If Labour get effectively an identical result to 2019 plus every SNP constituency, they would only have around 250 seats. This would clearly be insufficient to put Starmer into #10.

 

[Busaholic]

I'd just like to gently remind anyone getting prematurely euphoric at the Rutherglen result that another by-election occurs on 19th October in Mid Beds which might not be so favourable to Labour, depending on how much of the anti-Tory vote goes their way rather than to the Lib Dems. You can guarantee that the right wing media will be as disobliging as possible in their 'analysis' of the results.

 

[ainsworth74]

I'd just like to gently remind anyone getting prematurely euphoric at the Rutherglen result that another by-election occurs on 19th October in Mid Beds which might not be so favourable to Labour, depending on how much of the anti-Tory vote goes their way rather than to the Lib Dems. You can guarantee that the right wing media will be as disobliging as possible in their 'analysis' of the results.

That one has Labour and Lib Dem split the anti-Tory vote leaving the Tory candidate free to come through the middle and win on say 35% of the vote (whilst the Lib Dems and Labour pick up for sake of argument 60% between them) written all over it due to our terrible electoral system.

Perhaps this will concentrate minds at Labour and Lib Dem HQ and encourage them to focus campaigning resources during the General Election accordingly.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

That one has Labour and Lib Dem split the anti-Tory vote leaving the Tory candidate free to come through the middle and win on say 35% of the vote (whilst the Lib Dems and Labour pick up for sake of argument 60% between them) written all over it due to our terrible electoral system.

That is true. Worth pointing out though that it's equally possible that if Labour and the LibDems both campaign extensively in that seat, and manage to get around 30% each, that could result in the Tories coming 3rd - which would have to be the ultimate embarrassment for them!

 

[ainsworth74]

That is true. Worth pointing out though that it's equally possible that if Labour and the LibDems both campaign extensively in that seat, and manage to get around 30% each, that could result in the Tories coming 3rd - which would have to be the ultimate embarrassment for them!

High risk, high reward!

 

[Statto]

That one has Labour and Lib Dem split the anti-Tory vote leaving the Tory candidate free to come through the middle and win on say 35% of the vote (whilst the Lib Dems and Labour pick up for sake of argument 60% between them) written all over it due to our terrible electoral system.

Perhaps this will concentrate minds at Labour and Lib Dem HQ and encourage them to focus campaigning resources during the General Election accordingly.

Remember when Labour & Lib Dems sort did that in the 97 election in Tatton, in order to get rid of the then scandal ridden Tory incumbent Neil Hamilton, they joined forces but rather than one party allowing the other a free reign, they introduced an anti corruption independent candidate (which was Martin Bell), & Neil Hamilton lost the seat.