Northern Tender for up to 450 units

[HSTEd]

Are any UK factories acutally at risk of closure?

We have:
Alstom Derby - won't close due to HS2 contract
Hitachi Newton Aycliffe - won't close due to HS2 contract

Siemens Goole - won't close if further LU orders happen
CAF Newport - Focused on producing for export now, isn't it?

None of those orders are likely to matter beyond the next handful of years.
The reality is that there is nowhere near enough work in the UK to support two factories, let alone four!

Alstom/Hitachi will be sustained for a year or two by the HS2 orders (432 bodyshells won't sustain a production line for very long), and export orders are unlikely to materialise for the CAF plant long term. Increasing demands for in country train manufacture will render the export market extraordinarily competitive and force retrenchment in production.

What will happen is the government will get itself into a position that it will be forced to hand out contracts to keep plants open rather than on merit, which is one of the main ways the railway has ended up in the disastrous position it is in today.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

What will happen is the government will get itself into a position that it will be forced to hand out contracts to keep plants open rather than on merit, which is one of the main ways the railway has ended up in the disastrous position it is in today.

Will "the government" in power in those future years, be it of different political hues, have any different views on that particular matter?

 

[RobShipway]

Will "the government" in power in those future years, be it of different political hues, have any different views on that particular matter?

I am no fan of any of the main political parties in the UK. But given there was 259 units produced outside the UK between 2002 - 2014 and many people in all political parties questioning as to why that could not have gone to any UK manufacturing sites, you can see why any future orders there was stipulation of at least final assembly to a certain percentage here in the UK. Since that period, there seems to be an almost insistence that even though companies can make some units abroad outside of the UK, there has to be a percentage of final assembly work done here in the UK written into the contracts. All you have to do is look at the details of the contracts for Hitachi to build the IET C;ass 80X AT300 and class 385 AT200 trains or CAF with it's Civity trains.

I know that some will ask well, why has that principle not happened with Stadler, when it comes to the class 68, 88, 231, 398, 745, 755, 756 fleets. Well, although there is 173 items ordered from Stadler, the orders themselves are only small orders and at the time the facilities for Hitachi where i the throws of AT200 & AT300 production with Alstom (Bombardier) doing Aventra production with the class 345 for Crossrail Elizabeth line. However, I may stand corrected on this, I do believe that there is a fair amount of components that came from the UK that was sent to the Stadler facilities to be making those orders, so the orders where done with some UK productivity.

Now this is just my point of view, but I believe that if the current Government stays in power (I.e. Conservatives) that it will probably remain at 50% - 75% of Production done here in the UK if capacity exists.

However, if the Labour party get into power I can see the final assembly and UK parts nearing the 80% - 95% mark of the productivity. This would in turn mean, more jobs at the factories and potentially more jobs for companies within the UK to be working with those factories on items for their train products.

The above is just my view and I would not like to guess where any of the other parties may lay on this issue, other than perhaps you would see the Liberal Democrats taking a position halfway between the two scenarios above.

 

[Mamorin]

Ok so in the latest issue of Rail Philip Haigh has an article on Northern's tender, and he writes that he was able to get Northern to confirm that level boarding/gap fillers will be a feature of any new trains ordered.

 

[Energy]

Ok so in the latest issue of Rail Philip Haigh has an article on Northern's tender, and he writes that he was able to get Northern to confirm that level boarding/gap fillers will be a feature of any new trains ordered.

Excellent. Would be great to have Stadler units or a level boarding competitor.

 

[Trainbike46]

None of those orders are likely to matter beyond the next handful of years.
The reality is that there is nowhere near enough work in the UK to support two factories, let alone four!

Alstom/Hitachi will be sustained for a year or two by the HS2 orders (432 bodyshells won't sustain a production line for very long), and export orders are unlikely to materialise for the CAF plant long term. Increasing demands for in country train manufacture will render the export market extraordinarily competitive and force retrenchment in production.

The factories are busy for long enough into the future that the current government won't worry about it.

There's also a bunch of tenders going (very slowly) at the same time, Scotrail (B)EMU, Southeastern, Northern, GWR Churchward and Chiltern. Then there's things like the LU orders.

CAF has also managed to get some orders from operators and countries that do not care where manufacturering takes place, since opening Newport, so at least some of that may be planned for manufacture there

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Aug 2023 ==

Ok so in the latest issue of Rail Philip Haigh has an article on Northern's tender, and he writes that he was able to get Northern to confirm that level boarding/gap fillers will be a feature of any new trains ordered.

That's great news. Level boarding is truly essential for all new rolling stock

 

[D6975]

I don't know Talgo's portfolio particularly well, but aren't most of their trains long, high-speed designs of some sort? I wonder, if they are one of the bidders, what sort of product they would be offering as neither long (in the sense of many carrriages) nor high-speed are good descriptors for the majority of Northern's services.

They now have the 'VITTAL' in their range which is a suburban EMU.

 

[jonesy3001]

Is there going to be an announcement about the tender for the 450 units?

 

[swt_passenger]

Is there going to be an announcement about the tender for the 450 units?

I wouldn‘t expect anything in the short term future, because invitations to tender will only go out in late October according to the original notice. They might state who‘s going to receive the ITT at that time.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I wouldn‘t expect anything in the short term future, because invitations to tender will only go out in late October according to the original notice.

So that gives another two months of speculative postings to look forward to on this thread...

Not everyone seems to realise that tendering for units is somewhat different than what occurs after that process is gone through, a decision-making stage then applying and then and only then will a decision reached whether to place official orders.

 

[skyhigh]

So that gives another two months of speculative postings to look forward to on this thread...

This is the speculative subforum, so if you don't want to read speculation it's probably best not to look!

 

[Harvey B]

I wouldn‘t expect anything in the short term future, because invitations to tender will only go out in late October according to the original notice. They might state who‘s going to receive the ITT at that time.

I know it's probably a good few years yet but is there a rough window of when the first batch will be ready?

 

[ainsworth74]

I know it's probably a good few years yet but is there a rough window of when the first batch will be ready?

Who says there will be a first batch as a result of this tender? It's an invitation to tender not an order at the end of the day. The result of this could well be nowt.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Who says there will be a first batch as a result of this tender? It's an invitation to tender not an order at the end of the day. The result of this could well be nowt.

Well said.

 

[The Ham]

Who says there will be a first batch as a result of this tender? It's an invitation to tender not an order at the end of the day. The result of this could well be nowt.

Whilst that's true, it's also likely that there will be some form of timing stock order at some point. The fact they are doing this would imply that within the next 5 years isn't unreasonable (even if it's for a tiny fraction of what the headline figure suggests).

 

[ainsworth74]

Whilst that's true, it's also likely that there will be some form of timing stock order at some point. The fact they are doing this would imply that within the next 5 years isn't unreasonable (even if it's for a tiny fraction of what the headline figure suggests).

Sure, I was perhaps a little more dismissive than was entirely fair! Still, it feels to me to be far too early to even give a window for when the first units will appear beyond "probably before 2030" which is sort of obvious as the earlier members of the 15x family can't soldier on forever.

 

[jonesy3001]

How long did it take them to build the 195s and 331s when arriva ordered them for northern, mustn't have took them that long?

 

[Snow1964]

Who says there will be a first batch as a result of this tender? It's an invitation to tender not an order at the end of the day. The result of this could well be nowt.

Yes, an Invitation.
Basically a question of are you prepared to build UK size stock, which we might go ahead with if price is right.

Of course a manufacturer might come back and say yes, but at price X per unit based on say minimum of 120 units, with options and discounts for various quantities upto maximum.

More of a testing the market for their appetite to adapt one of their existing designs.

In my mind, I would seriously look at risk, much safer to go for a standard European design (equipment and software fitted), if not bodyshell dimensions with defined delivery dates, than a risky all new design with untested parts and not yet written software, even if bit cheaper, just in case struggle to get it working.

 

[skyhigh]

How long did it take them to build the 195s and 331s when arriva ordered them for northern, mustn't have took them that long?

The order was announced in April 2016 when Arriva won the franchise. The first mainline testing of 195s was September 2018 with passenger service starting July 2019. So that's roughly 3 years from announcement to introduction.

Given this process is still at an early stage it will be much longer than 3 years from now to see a new unit in service - if any actually get ordered.

 

[swt_passenger]

Who says there will be a first batch as a result of this tender? It's an invitation to tender not an order at the end of the day. The result of this could well be nowt.

The next government might completely cancel the DMU process in favour of a major increase in electrification. It’s happened before, around 2010:

Electrification Cancelling DMU orders

I am struggling to find any sources for the cancelled DMU orders that occurred when GWML electrification was announced. Does anyone know where i could find them? Was it 200 carriages?

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Bartsimho]

The next government might completely cancel the DMU process in favour of a major increase in electrification. It’s happened before, around 2010:

Electrification Cancelling DMU orders

I am struggling to find any sources for the cancelled DMU orders that occurred when GWML electrification was announced. Does anyone know where i could find them? Was it 200 carriages?

www.railforums.co.uk

I think they might be more sensible for these to be Bi-modes with the ability to convert to EMU's or BEMU's later (which the invitation to tender appears to encourage). Even with much more electrification there will still be business cases and having rolling stock which can use the wires from day 1 will be key to that. Especially as it appears likely to be a different colour government which have a strong base in the North and have been wanting to appeal to more traditional voters away from cities

 

[Energy]

The next government might completely cancel the DMU process in favour of a major increase in electrification. It’s happened before, around 2010:

Electrification Cancelling DMU orders

I am struggling to find any sources for the cancelled DMU orders that occurred when GWML electrification was announced. Does anyone know where i could find them? Was it 200 carriages?

www.railforums.co.uk

I think they might be more sensible for these to be Bi-modes with the ability to convert to EMU's or BEMU's later (which the invitation to tender appears to encourage).

The tender is for electric or multimode vehicles, not pure diesels.

 

[Harvey B]

How long did it take them to build the 195s and 331s when arriva ordered them for northern, mustn't have took them that long?

The order was announced in April 2016 when Arriva won the franchise. The first mainline testing of 195s was September 2018 with passenger service starting July 2019. So that's roughly 3 years from announcement to introduction.

Given this process is still at an early stage it will be much longer than 3 years from now to see a new unit in service - if any actually get ordered.

If I can recall this correctly: Didn't the process for the 195s technically start around mid-late 2014 while Serco-Abellio was still running the Northern franchise?

 

[jonesy3001]

If I can recall this correctly: Didn't the process for the 195s technically start around mid-late 2014 while Serco-Abellio was still running the Northern franchise?

See post 259

 

[Harvey B]

See post 259

When Arriva took over the franchise in April 2016, it was already a done and dusted deal. I'm pretty sure that Arriva and the the other 2 shortlisted bidders for the Northern franchise (Abellio and Govia) must have put out their own individual ITT's for potential new rolling stock sometime in early 2015 during the bidding process for the Northern franchise. So to say that the announcement of the order was in April 2016 doesn't mean that the process actually started in April 2016.

 

[CAF397]

Robin Gisby said in the Commons Transport Select Committee he is getting the TOCs he is responsible for to look longer term, and specifically mentioned Northern (and Southeastern) for ordering new trains. He said from a business plan point of view it encourages better payback than investment over a 7-year cycle.

 

[jonesy3001]

This is interesting was posted on the modern railways X page.
I've copied it for those who don't have twitter/X.
Nick Donovan of @northernassist is speaking about the operator's priorities. Northern is forecasting revenue growth of 11% in 2023-24 on 2019-20. New train tender out, aim to have first in service in 2028, affordability critical #pubtransnorth

https://twitter.com/Modern_Railways/status/1701552059164581983?t=Nb3yoen2Kzw-IdQgvSffyA&s=19

 

[JacobWrenn]

The tweet very much does not suggest anyone has won the tender yet.

 

[skyhigh]

This is interesting was posted on the modern railways X page, any idea who won the tender.

It says tender out, not awarded!

I'm sure there will be a press release when there's some news to be shared.

 

[ainsworth74]

It says tender out, not awarded!

Yes, 2028 suggests that they're expecting to make the award probably in 2024 maybe early 2025. So I think the only news we're likely to get the next twelve months or so is a shortlist.