Main revenue flows on the WCML

[station_road]

Unless there are problems with pathing it's hard to imagine that the second Lime Street would miss out Runcorn. And I agree that a stop at Hartford might well be useful so long as there is reason to believe sufficient demand exists.

The existing 07.40 from Liverpool to Euston already has an allowance for an unadvertised stop at Hartford, which may be for when the new trains are introduced (or could just be for pathing, which is the reason shown on RTT)

https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:L33287/2023-09-08/detailed#allox_id=0

 

[Krokodil]

Unless there are problems with pathing it's hard to imagine that the second Lime Street would miss out Runcorn. And I agree that a stop at Hartford might well be useful so long as there is reason to believe sufficient demand exists.

I thought that the second Lime Street was going to call at South Parkway instead of Runcorn.

 

[Djgr]

I thought that the second Lime Street was going to call at South Parkway instead of Runcorn.

Let's hope it doesn't go the way of the Liverpool to Birmingham service and stop at every shack on route.

 

[The Planner]

The existing 07.40 from Liverpool to Euston already has an allowance for an unadvertised stop at Hartford, which may be for when the new trains are introduced (or could just be for pathing, which is the reason shown on RTT)

https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:L33287/2023-09-08/detailed#allox_id=0

Thats a stop. 90 second dwell gives it away, if it was pathing you would just whack some time in and not stop.

 

[Merle Haggard]

I'd say no. There are already semifast and fast Euston-Brum services, and the consistent pattern is a big strength. Northampton effectively does have a south facing bay - P3.

Regarding this and upthread discussion; my reading of the strategy document (link in post 1) is that the Euston - Birmingham slow service will be severed at Northampton, with then two sections given to different operators (this presumably was written before the changes to TOCs) which might be interpreted as ensuring there is no seamless through service.

Boarding at Northampton and also hearing questions by intending passengers at New St I believe that there is a considerable number of passengers travelling between Euston and Birmingham on the LNwR services - although the ones travelling 'across' Northampton may equally be, for instance, Coventry to Watford ones I accept, but still people who have eschewed Avanti.

It all raises an interesting point, in my view. At the moment. many passengers are willing to forego the quicker transit of the Avanti services for the benefit of cost saving using LNwR. HS2 will introduce an even faster service than Avanti, but presumably (to reflect construction costs) at an even higher fare than Avanti. It seems that the intention is to remove the service with the lowest fare. Will this induce everyone to move up a price step or will they desert rail for other modes or not travel at all? I'm not sure the former will be the outcome...

Edit regarding my bold ; sorry for the confusion, the reference to the strategy document was to that in in the thread about HS2 services on the Southern WCML but these two threads do have some subjects in common. It's worth reading the strategy report to see what seems to have been decided.

 

[jayah]

I am surprised that Birmingham to Manchester is so low.

It equates to something like 250 Off Peak Returns a day. XC are not known for giving away huge number of cheap Advance fares.

It is suggested elsewhere this might just be Avanti revenue and until confirmed otherwise I would be inclined to agree.

Going by population you might expect £25m.

 

[Class83]

Let's hope it doesn't go the way of the Liverpool to Birmingham service and stop at every shack on route.

Isn't the point of the 2nd service that it can serve additional stops while the main route maintains the headline timing.

Hourly Chester services would be a good option, as others have said, revenue reflects supply as well as demand. Driving to Crewe gives a lot more journey options and potentially cheaper fares than the limited service.

 

[deltic]

It equates to something like 250 Off Peak Returns a day. XC are not known for giving away huge number of cheap Advance fares.

It is suggested elsewhere this might just be Avanti revenue and until confirmed otherwise I would be inclined to agree.

Going by population you might expect £25m.

The data covers all operators

 

[Clarence Yard]

It is suggested elsewhere this might just be Avanti revenue and until confirmed otherwise I would be inclined to agree.

They are the all operator revenue figures from LENNON, which form the base all operator revenue figures in MOIRA. Totally checks out.

The person at NR who allowed these revenue figures to be put into the public domain won’t be doing that again!

 

[Parjon]

Despite the absolute democratic legitimacy - and necessity - of people's right to know, and the total absence of any justifiable reason for them being withheld.

 

[Krokodil]

It equates to something like 250 Off Peak Returns a day. XC are not known for giving away huge number of cheap Advance fares.

It is suggested elsewhere this might just be Avanti revenue and until confirmed otherwise I would be inclined to agree.

Going by population you might expect £25m.

I suspect that split-ticketing is distorting the data. MAN-BHM can be split at Stoke to save a few quid.

 

[ainsworth74]

Just for reference a copy of Appendix B (which has the now removed revenue information) is attached to the opening post.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Despite the absolute democratic legitimacy - and necessity - of people's right to know, and the total absence of any justifiable reason for them being withheld.

If revenue is part of the contractual terms between the TOC and DfT, and it will be, it will be commercially confidential.
Now passenger numbers are another thing, and CAA statistics are published which gives the number of air passengers between specific airports.
These numbers are independent of particular airlines, though you can often work out the likely split.
You won't find the airline revenue figure, though, or market share.
There's no commercial reason why rail statistics couldn't provide similar passenger number information.

 

[simonw]

Despite the absolute democratic legitimacy - and necessity - of people's right to know, and the total absence of any justifiable reason for them being withheld.

what necessity is there for 'people' to know this data? I found it interesting, but I have no necessity to know it.

 

[Horizon22]

Despite the absolute democratic legitimacy - and necessity - of people's right to know, and the total absence of any justifiable reason for them being withheld.

What has “democratic legitmacy” got to do with it? It’s commercially sensitive data. It might be the sort of thing you could FOI, but even then it would probably be batted back with the same reasons.

 

[northwichcat]

I'm not sure about this data.

If you're travelling from Bolton to London, are you recorded as Manchester to London because it's easier to travel that way, rather than Wigan to London?

Wilmslow to London will likely include some people who can just as easily get to Macclesfield if there were no direct London trains from Wilmslow.

If you're in Winsford and travelling to London, could you be recorded as generating revenue for a Manchester or Glasgow service, if you catch a bus to Crewe, rather than use the not-very-central rail station?

 

[simonw]

I'm not sure about this data.

If you're travelling from Bolton to London, are you recorded as Manchester to London because it's easier to travel that way, rather than Wigan to London?

Wilmslow to London will likely include some people who can just as easily get to Macclesfield if there were no direct London trains from Wilmslow.

If you're in Winsford and travelling to London, could you be recorded as generating revenue for a Manchester or Glasgow service, if you catch a bus to Crewe, rather than use the not-very-central rail station?

There will always be issued of definition. They are unlikely to have a material impact on the numbers, to a degree that will affect any decisions made on the basis of the numbers.

 

[northwichcat]

Fares are cheaper, so revenue comparison to the hugely pricey CrossCountry doesn't work in this case. No doubt (and already seeing signs of this) the decent value LNWR tickets will be eroded, so that everyone gets ripped off instead!

I recall XC doing a sale pre-COVID that was well publicised, alongside their network map. That would have encouraged additional leisure travel and increased awareness of their services. With Liverpool-Birmingham and Manchester-Scotland not being part of XC, it probably didn't do anything to increase awareness of these services, if anything it might have led to people thinking they don't exist as direct trains. If National Express coaches ran a sale, it wouldn't led to people searching Flixbus for routes they don't operate.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Sep 2023 ==

There will always be issued of definition. They are unlikely to have a material impact on the numbers, to a degree that will affect any decisions made on the basis of the numbers.

Bolton alone may not but start looking at all the stations where you can connect to a Manchester to London train at either Manchester or Stockport and it will likely have more combined impact than passengers starting and ending journeys in Manchester city centre. For some of the soutbound Euston trains in the mornings there's as many people waiting at Stockport, as already on the train. If we consider some of the passengers already on the train may have started their journeys at Salford, Stalybridge, Bolton etc. then passengers starting at Manchester will easily be under 50% of the passengers. The ones changing trains are less likely to benefit from cheap Advance tickets too.

 

[simonw]

I recall XC doing a sale pre-COVID that was well publicised, alongside their network map. That would have encouraged additional leisure travel and increased awareness of their services. With Liverpool-Birmingham and Manchester-Scotland not being part of XC, it probably didn't do anything to increase awareness of these services, if anything it might have led to people thinking they don't exist as direct trains. If National Express coaches ran a sale, it wouldn't led to people searching Flixbus for routes they don't operate.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Sep 2023 ==



Bolton alone may not but start looking at all the stations where you can connect to a Manchester to London train at either Manchester or Stockport and it will likely have more combined impact than passengers starting and ending journeys in Manchester city centre. For some of the soutbound Euston trains in the mornings there's as many people waiting at Stockport, as already on the train. If we consider some of the passengers already on the train may have started their journeys at Salford, Stalybridge, Bolton etc. then passengers starting at Manchester will easily be under 50% of the passengers. The ones changing trains are less likely to benefit from cheap Advance tickets too.

One assumes they have made some adjustment to reflect such longer journeys. I don't think anyone would count only Euston Piccadilly and vice versa tickets.

 

[northwichcat]

I don't think anyone would count only Euston Piccadilly and vice versa tickets.

That's what I'm trying to get at. From many towns there's a choice and if Manchester to London is 3tph it means people are going through Manchester who don't need to, hence it's making Manchester's figure high.

 

[simonw]

That's what I'm trying to get at. From many towns there's a choice and if Manchester to London is 3tph it means people are going through Manchester who don't need to, hence it's making Manchester's figure high.

I understand your point that the figures will reflect current usage, that doesn't mean anyone is making simplistic assumptions and decisions based on them.

 

[Bald Rick]

One assumes they have made some adjustment to reflect such longer journeys. I don't think anyone would count only Euston Piccadilly and vice versa tickets.

That's what I'm trying to get at. From many towns there's a choice and if Manchester to London is 3tph it means people are going through Manchester who don't need to, hence it's making Manchester's figure high.

The figures are those from Manchester to London, ie people with tickets “Manchester BR“ to London.

Bolton (for example) to London is a separate flow on the spreadsheet (and much lower revenue)

 

[Krokodil]

what necessity is there for 'people' to know this data? I found it interesting, but I have no necessity to know it.

Yes, most of it is idle curiosity. That said, we're in an era where politicians are making wild claims in order to justify cuts (Harper was quoted recently as saying that pax numbers were 50% down, no idea if it was a misquote or if he really did give that figure) and it's helpful to have access to as much data as possible. Can't trust a politician, after all.