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Main revenue flows on the WCML

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AndrewE

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The extreme dominance of London flows, compared to the revenue for travel between England's 2nd and 3rd largest cities, shows how depressingly skewed this country's economic geography is. Although post-pandemic this may have reduced slightly, with the loss of business travellers.
I would draw a different conclusion to most here: it clearly shows how Liverpool's relatively poor service (1 train per hour to London) suppresses demand compared with what happens when there are 3 an hour - which is almost turn up and go!
I am surprised how poorly Bham - Lpool fares, I remember all the trains were busy before Covid (and currently 1 per hour is really busy too.)
 
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Merseysider

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I am surprised how poorly Bham - Lpool fares, I remember all the trains were busy before Covid (and currently 1 per hour is really busy too.)
From Liverpool, the Birmingham trains normally leave from ungated platforms, and onboard ticket checks are as rare as hen's teeth. That can't help revenue.
 

mangyiscute

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Easy conclusion: stop all trains at MKC. ( told you!)
Interestingly, they are suggesting exactly that in the document, saying that hs2 will provide the fast services and since Milton Keynes will get 2tph to each of Oxford, Aylesbury and Cambridge via EWR it should get a stop on all conventional services into Euston
 

AndrewE

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How much of this has been down to traincrew availability and DfT meddling though?
I would say that the (historic) 1 train an hour [Liverpool] to London has suppressed demand for many years now, and reducing the [Liverpool to] Birminghams to the same (from 2-an-hour pre-Covid) has turned the screw on that traffic flow too.
I didn't realise this thread was about why the current service is so inadequate, just why the revenue isn't what it could be.
From Liverpool, the Birmingham trains normally leave from ungated platforms, and onboard ticket checks are as rare as hen's teeth. That can't help revenue.
might have something to do with it, but I think tickets generally do get checked at some stage coming south. My experience is that the guards check the rear unit after every station to make sure that people aren't in the wrong unit. I guess that a fare-evader would make sure that they are in the front unit!
 

Parjon

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I am surprised how poorly Bham - Lpool fares, I remember all the trains were busy before Covid (and currently 1 per hour is really busy too.)
Fares are cheaper, so revenue comparison to the hugely pricey CrossCountry doesn't work in this case. No doubt (and already seeing signs of this) the decent value LNWR tickets will be eroded, so that everyone gets ripped off instead!
 

deltic

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Do these data include journeys involving changes, or would London-Manchester for example strictly represent tickets for Euston to Manchester Picadilly only?
They are for London BR to Manchester BR
 

Verulamius

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Reversals at Bletchley, planning on building a spur, or just changing at MKC and Bletchley instead of in London or Birmingham?
It is suggesting two new platforms at MKC for East West Rail and a North to East chord for Cambridge trains and freight.
 

Senex

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The extreme dominance of London flows, compared to the revenue for travel between England's 2nd and 3rd largest cities, shows how depressingly skewed this country's economic geography is. Although post-pandemic this may have reduced slightly, with the loss of business travellers.

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Do these data include journeys involving changes, or would London-Manchester for example strictly represent tickets for Euston to Manchester Picadilly only?
I certainly agree with you about the depressingly skewed economic geography (which got steadily worse through the C20), but do those revenue figures also reflect how relatively slow and unattractive the XC service between Birmingham and Manchester is compared with the London service (though Manchester's links to all the other great cities of England are poorer still)?
 

Jack Hay

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I certainly agree with you about the depressingly skewed economic geography (which got steadily worse through the C20), but do those revenue figures also reflect how relatively slow and unattractive the XC service between Birmingham and Manchester is compared with the London service (though Manchester's links to all the other great cities of England are poorer still)?
You're right IMHO, and although it's off-topic, think about the links between Manchester and Derby, chosen as GBR HQ, so doubtless a journey that some people will be needing to do!
 

mangyiscute

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Reversals at Bletchley, planning on building a spur, or just changing at MKC and Bletchley instead of in London or Birmingham?
There are several options listed, the best involve building a north to east spur to allow direct services with no reversal - with some of them suggesting services could continue via Northampton to Birmingham. In other proposals, there are no direct Cambridge to MKC trains, however - there are many different options listed, and if we keep a similar attitude to trains going, it'll probably be one of the cheaper options. This whole document is talking about the WCML post HS2, so I don't know if any of these services will come into place before HS2, as it would almost certainly need new tracks and platforms between Bletchley and MKC - there's certainly no space on the mainline
 

Djgr

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From Liverpool, the Birmingham trains normally leave from ungated platforms, and onboard ticket checks are as rare as hen's teeth. That can't help revenue.
Difficult to understand why on board ticket checking should be an issue. Of course Birmingham New Street is (in theory) gated!!!
 

D6975

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From Liverpool, the Birmingham trains normally leave from ungated platforms, and onboard ticket checks are as rare as hen's teeth. That can't help revenue.
I must be very unlucky then, as every time I have travelled between Acton Bridge and Liverpool there's been a ticket check.
 

Parjon

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I must be very unlucky then, as every time I have travelled between Acton Bridge and Liverpool there's been a ticket check.
Don't see many full ticket checks going on myself, but have noticed those that get on at Acton Bridge etc made a beeline for. Perhaps could be because of the level of ASB and fares avoidance from those few stations, a tactic to remind those boarding of "authority".
 

gg1

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I certainly agree with you about the depressingly skewed economic geography (which got steadily worse through the C20), but do those revenue figures also reflect how relatively slow and unattractive the XC service between Birmingham and Manchester is compared with the London service (though Manchester's links to all the other great cities of England are poorer still)?
Slow and horribly overcrowded. I used to travel between Birmingham and Manchester every couple of months a few years ago, after becoming thoroughly fed up of squeezing into crush loaded Voyagers I gave up on the train and switched to driving. The London Avanti services are vastly superior.
 

childwallblues

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Has London Northwestern got rid of First Class? If they have, I'd forgotten.

Edit: apparently there are First Class fares between Watford Junction and Euston, but only via Clapham Junction.

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Whilst £4m for BHM-LIV seems pretty low it is not an IC service considering that it has ten stops for an 88 mile service. Six stops are not served by Virgin/Avanti these being Smethwick Galton Bridge, Penkridge, Winsford, Hartford, Acton Bridge and Liverpool South Parkway. With the exception of Acton Bridge all the other stations are busy and feed into the BHM-LIV service. Revenue from these stations will not be included in the route figures when it should be.
 
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Rail Ranger

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Surprised that London-Stockport doesn't feature highly in the list unless it is included in London-Manchester. Also London-Crewe.
 

higthomas

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They are for London BR to Manchester BR
So a journey such as Birkenhead-London or Liverpool-Croydon wouldn't be included in the Liverpool-London figures? If so, then Manchester's Metrolink might be skewing the figures relative to Merseyrail, since a Metrolink+Avanti journey would have a split ticket at Piccadilly whereas a Merseyrail+Avanti would likely be on a single ticket. Similarly for other places like Glasgow with good suburban rail networks
 

WatcherZero

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So a journey such as Birkenhead-London or Liverpool-Croydon wouldn't be included in the Liverpool-London figures? If so, then Manchester's Metrolink might be skewing the figures relative to Merseyrail, since a Metrolink+Avanti journey would have a split ticket at Piccadilly whereas a Merseyrail+Avanti would likely be on a single ticket. Similarly for other places like Glasgow with good suburban rail networks.

There are 18 stations in the London Station Group across 9 boroughs so when its London BR its pretty much all of central London, but Croydon isnt one of them. Page 279 has the figures and its Liverpool BR and Manchester BR, elsewhere when modelling potential demand for destinations from southern WCML stations they model Manchester including Metrolink network coverage as one destination and Liverpool including Stoke and North Staffordshire as another.

They have also modelled abstraction from HS2 completion using the pre-covid figures as if it was completed today.
London BR - Manchester BR £203.9m to £61.6m
London BR - Liverpool BR £84.3m to £59.4m
London BR - Birmingham BR £96.3m to £32.2m
London BR - Chester £27.6m to £17.4m
London BR - Glasgow BR £48.3m to £31.1m

The tables of revenues flows is missing all North WCML stations between Crewe and Glasgow/Edinburgh with the exception of Preston and Liverpool, so for example Warrington, Wigan, Lake District stations, Carlisle etc... are completely absent.
 
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Grimsby town

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So a journey such as Birkenhead-London or Liverpool-Croydon wouldn't be included in the Liverpool-London figures? If so, then Manchester's Metrolink might be skewing the figures relative to Merseyrail, since a Metrolink+Avanti journey would have a split ticket at Piccadilly whereas a Merseyrail+Avanti would likely be on a single ticket. Similarly for other places like Glasgow with good suburban rail networks


That was my thought too. My tickets are always Manchester Stations to London because I use Metrolink to connect. I imagine some people buy advanced tickets from Liverpool to London and then buy a flexible return on the Merseyrail so those tickets will still be classed as Liverpool Stations ticket.

The other variable is that Liverpool is located on the coast and therefore its catchment area is smaller than Manchester's. Parts of the Wirral will have an easier service via Chester and for the eastern areas of Merseyside, Wigan and Warrington may be more attractive. Most of Great Manchester's London pax will travel via Piccadilly or Stockport. The exception is Wigan and maybe parts of Bolton.

I'd expect that people from parts of West Yorkshire, Derbyshire, and Lancashire travel via Manchester too (e.g. Huddersfield, Buxton, Chorley). Outside of Merseyside, I'd expect that very few people travel via Runcorn or Liverpool. Purely comparing the populations of Greater Manchester excluding Wigan (2.5million) and all of Merseyside (1.5 million), you can see that Manchester has a far bigger catchment area.

Before everyone from Liverpool piles in on me I'm completely on board with the 2nd service per hour and think its justified. Liverpool is never going to be as big a market as Manchester though purely because of its position on the coast.
 

Starmill

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They are for London BR to Manchester BR
Looks like some of the default zones in Moira have been used to generate those numbers, so it's actually a cluster of nearby stations included within the figures. They've also been rounded.
 

WatcherZero

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Does the table include all WCML flows with a value of over £4m or is it just a selection? If the former I find it hard to believe Chester generates more than 7 times the revenue of Wolverhampton, Warrington, Wigan, Lancaster or Carlisle.

No, but Wolverhampton is listed £14.46m from London, £956k from Edinburgh, £945k from Glasgow, £152k from Cardiff, £1.05m from Liverpool, £692k from Stoke, £565k from Coventry, £213k from Chester, £350k from Milton Keynes.

Chester- London £27.6m, MK £1.1m, Watford £308k, Northampton £115k, Berkhamstead £43.6k, Tring £32k, Harrow £25k, Birmingham £1m, Wolverhampton £213.6k, Birmingham Int £192k, Stoke £155k, Crewe £131k, Coventry £127k, Stafford £123k.
 
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Parjon

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There are 18 stations in the London Station Group across 9 boroughs so when its London BR its pretty much all of central London, but Croydon isnt one of them. Page 279 has the figures and its Liverpool BR and Manchester BR, elsewhere when modelling potential demand for destinations from southern WCML stations they model Manchester including Metrolink network coverage as one destination and Liverpool including Stoke and North Staffordshire as another.

They have also modelled abstraction from HS2 completion using the pre-covid figures as if it was completed today.
London BR - Manchester BR £203.9m to £61.6m
London BR - Liverpool BR £84.3m to £59.4m
London BR - Birmingham BR £96.3m to £32.2m
London BR - Chester £27.6m to £17.4m
London BR - Glasgow BR £48.3m to £31.1m

The tables of revenues flows is missing all North WCML stations between Crewe and Glasgow/Edinburgh with the exception of Preston and Liverpool, so for example Warrington, Wigan, Lake District stations, Carlisle etc... are completely absent.
What is also interesting about that picture is the low level of abstraction that is expected for Liverpool services versus Manchester. What this indicates is that they still expect Manchester-level loadings on the remaining WCML 1tph to Liverpool, in addition to its two HS2 services.

We know that there has been concern over likely overcrowding on Liverpool's HS2 services for a long time, first expressed in early documentation which spoke of passengers at Stafford being deterred from boarding, and later through the half-asd fudge of running 400m to Crewe (the last and closest station able to host them) before sending 200m onwards.

Surely enough is enough, that the govt need to come clean and admit the city warrants and needs proper investment to allow it to grow.

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The other variable is that Liverpool is located on the coast
While part of our city is located on coasts (plural), we are located on an estuary. There are 1.6m people in our metropolitan county area, and another 1 million located just outside it. To our west is the well populated North Wales strip.

I think though that these figures show that these sorts of discussions are really not relevant. The fact is we exist, and are far more valuable than so many would care to allow anyone to admit.
 
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WatcherZero

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While part of our city is located on coasts (plural), we are located on an estuary. There are 1.6m people in our metropolitan county area, and another 1 million located just outside it. To our west is the well populated North Wales strip.

I think though that these figures show that these sorts of discussions are really not relevant. The fact is we exist, and are far more valuable than so many would care to allow anyone to admit.

Dont forget theres already a Crewe-Holyhead rail line with direct services from London operating that strip so anything for Chester and its environs, the Welsh coast and the southern half of the Wirral Peninsula arent going to be travelling via Liverpool. (I think Bebington is the point where its equidistant journey wise via Chester and Liverpool)
 
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gingerheid

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London-Chester seems high in comparison with some of the others...
Also the surprising figure on the table for me!

The other comparison that interests me is Edinburgh - Birmingham & Glasgow - Birmingham v Edinburgh - London and Glasgow - London. It's striking me that a WCML with unlimited capacity would likely have a lot more trains from Edinburgh to London.
 
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