Russia invades Ukraine

[azOOOOOma]

What I can’t figure out is why Prigozin didn’t take the high speed train to St Petersburg.

Allegedly Putin isn’t flying due to the threat. If Putin doesn’t think he’s safe enough to fly, then what on earth was Prigozin doing taking a flight?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Give Putin's reputation, previous actions, and the fact Prigozhin was considered a dead man walking arguably even before the 'coup like' actions due to his very public criticism of the way the war was going, the one thing that sort of makes me wonder is why he'd be on a plane.

Has the Russian Government ever murdered one of its own citizens by shooting down/bombing one of its own planes before? There have been lots of cases where Putin has apparently had his internal opponents poisoned/shot/fallen out of windows/etc., but shooting down a plane is way more dramatic than what seems to be his normal modus operandi for assassinations - and also carries much more collateral damage (death of pilots, risk to people on the ground, loss of a potential military asset, etc.). So perhaps, Prigozhin had assumed that if Putin was intending to eliminate him, the risk would be one of those methods, and he was therefore not particularly bothered about getting into a plane.

 

[Gloster]

Has the Russian Government ever murdered one of its own citizens by shooting down/bombing one of its own planes before? There have been lots of cases where Putin has apparently had his internal opponents poisoned/shot/fallen out of windows/etc., but shooting down a plane is way more dramatic than what seems to be his normal modus operandi for assassinations - and also carries much more collateral damage (death of pilots, risk to people on the ground, loss of a potential military asset, etc.). So perhaps, Prigozhin had assumed that if Putin was intending to eliminate him, the risk would be one of those methods, and he was therefore not particularly bothered about getting into a plane.

In this country it is thought well to kill a general from time to time to encourage the others. (With apologies to Voltaire.)

 

[43096]

In this country it is thought well to kill a general from time to time to encourage the others. (With apologies to Voltaire.)

Admiral John Byng, who was court-martialled and executed for "failing to do his utmost" to prevent Minorca falling into French hands. "Pour encourager les autres" being the phrase Voltaire used.

 

[dakta]

It cant be determined if course, but when you could be shot, pushed out of a window, irradiated id not put much store in the 'they havent used this method yet' idea.

Wel never know i guess but i do say, if collateral can be used to add doubt to this, tgats hardly not in their interests. Wonder how much a pilot is worth over there

 

[AndrewE]

relevant here, I think (unless it needs a new thread): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66630260 (Poland investigates cyber-attack on rail network) says

Polish intelligence services are investigating a hacking attack on the country's railways, Polish media say.
Hackers broke into railway frequencies to disrupt traffic in the north-west of the country overnight, the Polish Press Agency (PAP) reported on Saturday.
The signals were interspersed with recording of Russia's national anthem and a speech by President Vladimir Putin, the report says.
Poland is a major transit hub for Western weapons being sent to Ukraine.
Saturday's incident occurred when hackers transmitted a signal that triggered an emergency stoppage of trains near the city of Szczecin, PAP reported.
About 20 trains were brought to a standstill, but services were restored within hours.
...

 

[takno]

relevant here, I think (unless it needs a new thread): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66630260 (Poland investigates cyber-attack on rail network) says

Honestly I'd disregard essentially everything coming out of Poland at the moment. To describe the output of the PiS government and state media as deranged would be understating the point. If there is any kind of angle to imply that Tusk has a direct line to Moscow they are straight on it. The BBC aren't terrible, but they do sometimes reprint it without asking enough questions.

 

[Springs Branch]

Given Russia's track record in cyber-mischief - misinformation, interfering with elections and the like - wouldn't it be ironic if some organisation with access to the latest awesome AI / Deep Fake software (say, as a random example, a mob based in Langley, Virginia) were to drop a short video on TikTok, showing a Prigozhin headshot, sitting relaxed in a comfy armchair, vodka in hand, saying something along the lines of "Hi Guys. Yevgeny here. Just been watching the Six O'clock News. You know what? All these reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated. See you all again soon!"

Would this cause a few headaches in the Kremlin?

 

[Broucek]

Given Russia's track record in cyber-mischief - misinformation, interfering with elections and the like - wouldn't it be ironic if some organisation with access to the latest awesome AI / Deep Fake software (say, as a random example, a mob based in Langley, Virginia) were to drop a short video on TikTok, showing a Prigozhin headshot, sitting relaxed in a comfy armchair, vodka in hand, saying something along the lines of "Hi Guys. Yevgeny here. Just been watching the Six O'clock News. You know what? All these reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated. See you all again soon!"

Would this cause a few headaches in the Kremlin?

Why stop there? Why not him and Vlad kissing?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Given Russia's track record in cyber-mischief - misinformation, interfering with elections and the like - wouldn't it be ironic if some organisation with access to the latest awesome AI / Deep Fake software (say, as a random example, a mob based in Langley, Virginia) were to drop a short video on TikTok, showing a Prigozhin headshot, sitting relaxed in a comfy armchair, vodka in hand, saying something along the lines of "Hi Guys. Yevgeny here. Just been watching the Six O'clock News. You know what? All these reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated. See you all again soon!"

Would this cause a few headaches in the Kremlin?

Sadly, I think a video like that could cause more headaches for the West than the Kremlin. Prigozhin's likely death is likely to have simultaneously badly dented morale amongst Wagner forces and increased their anger towards Putin. Those are both good things for supporters of democracy and opponents of Putin. I can't see that it's in our interests to do anything to counter that.

 

[najaB]

Prigozhin's likely death is likely to have simultaneously badly dented morale amongst Wagner forces and increased their anger towards Putin. Those are both good things for supporters of democracy and opponents of Putin

Not sure I agree. The more confusion there is on Russia's/Wagner's side the less effective and cohesive they'll be as a fighting force. Not to mention the impact of "can't even manage an assassination these days" would have on Putin's 'strong and stable' mantra.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Honestly I'd disregard essentially everything coming out of Poland at the moment. To describe the output of the PiS government and state media as deranged would be understating the point. If there is any kind of angle to imply that Tusk has a direct line to Moscow they are straight on it. The BBC aren't terrible, but they do sometimes reprint it without asking enough questions.

Seconded. Anything happening right now that can be blamed on Russia is almost certainly either an inside job, or a job done in collaboration with outsiders. This government is in electoral trouble (2-3% swing to the opposition and they lose), and nothing else that they're proposing has had any effect on the polls.

There's a news report on the BBC today that I think is worth a read: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217

The figures remain classified. But US officials, quoted by the New York Times, recently put the number at 70,000 dead and as many as 120,000 injured. It is a staggering figure, from an armed forces estimated at only half a million strong. The UN has recorded 9,177 civilian deaths to date.

It looks like the southern offensive has been a lot bloodier than is commonly known.

 

[najaB]

It looks like the southern offensive has been a lot bloodier than is commonly known.

It seems that it's been brutal on both sides. Hopefully what appears to be a breakthrough on the road to Tokmak will be the turning point.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Seconded. Anything happening right now that can be blamed on Russia is almost certainly either an inside job, or a job done in collaboration with outsiders. This government is in electoral trouble (2-3% swing to the opposition and they lose), and nothing else that they're proposing has had any effect on the polls.

Out of interest, if they do lose, are the opposition in Poland just as committed to supporting Ukraine?

 

[brad465]

There's a news report on the BBC today that I think is worth a read: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217

It looks like the southern offensive has been a lot bloodier than is commonly known.

Yes this will have been the driver to reverting back to Plan A: destroy logistics and wait for the front to collapse in a key region. What's also clear is that Russians, whether through propaganda/brainwashing and/or just their own beliefs, are far more tolerant or even supportive of warmongering than originally feared, given that their greater losses and a mobilisation campaign have not led to huge resentment (although the coup attempt and Prigozhin's downfall show it's not stable there either).

Mike Martin did a thread yesterday that basically says Ukraine need to reclaim all the land west of Melitopol that Russia currently controls before the US election next year, which will require severing all the main bridge links, controlling/cutting off Tokmak and preventing the main MH14 highway being usable for heavy logistics:

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1696092944472670680

Ok. Now that Ukraine has taken the settlement of Robotyne, what does this mean for the wider strategic environment? Short version: there better be some movement soon, or time will run out.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Out of interest, if they do lose, are the opposition in Poland just as committed to supporting Ukraine?

Absolutely. There is a far right party that isn't, but otherwise the support is solid. The issue with this election is that if the government ends up needing the far right party to govern, then there are major questions about that party and their (open) links to Russia.

It seems that it's been brutal on both sides. Hopefully what appears to be a breakthrough on the road to Tokmak will be the turning point.

I think that this is partially why Ukraine has been lobbing drones at Russia itself, because it makes the war harder to continue from the Russian point of view. Still, it's fascinating to see how something low tech (landmines) has really proven to be a formidable weapon in this war.

Mike Martin did a thread yesterday that basically says Ukraine need to reclaim all the land west of Melitopol that Russia currently controls before the US election next year, which will require severing all the main bridge links, controlling/cutting off Tokmak and preventing the main MH14 highway being usable for heavy logistics:

Fantastic thread, thank you very much for linking us to it! There are reports that Ukraine has the upper hand when it comes to artillery, and that the Russians are really lacking in artillery firepower. But this thread also confirms my gut feeling: that Ukraine is facing a very, very difficult task in the months ahead, unless there's another Kharkiv-style collapse. I don't believe - personally - that Russia will collapse in the same way as they did, simply because the southern area is just too important for them. If they take control of Martin's blue area, then Crimea is in play, leading to chaos there.

 

[87electric]

How many times can Prigozhin die? 2019, 2023…. Smoke and mirrors can benefit many people on either side of this conflict, even the ”dying” person.

 

[Ianigsy]

Seconded. Anything happening right now that can be blamed on Russia is almost certainly either an inside job, or a job done in collaboration with outsiders. This government is in electoral trouble (2-3% swing to the opposition and they lose), and nothing else that they're proposing has had any effect on the polls.

There's a news report on the BBC today that I think is worth a read: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66581217



It looks like the southern offensive has been a lot bloodier than is commonly known.

There are many things we can give Ukraine, but the one thing we can’t produce for them is more Ukrainians. It may well be the case that some of the teenagers who’ve come here will want to go back and fight if there’s still a war when they’re old enough, but they’d be raw recruits without even a conscrip‘a basic training.

 

[Mogster]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1697117712776913027?s=20

How do the lacquered cardboard drones get to Pskov? Pskov is a long way from Ukraine, almost in Estonia.

 

[1D54]

Surely not using Belarusian air space either.

 

[brad465]

The US are now reporting "notable progress" in the last 72 hours, having recently been expressing frustration at the slow pace of the counteroffensive:

Ukraine war: US sees 'notable progress' by Ukraine army in south

The US praise comes as Kyiv admits the fighting against strong Russian defensive lines is tough.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine's forces have made "notable progress" in their push against heavily fortified Russian positions in the south, the US government says.
White House security spokesman John Kirby said those gains were made in the past 72 hours south of Zaporizhzhia.
Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told CNN that Kyiv's forces were advancing, but "it's a tough fight".
Russia claims to have taken strategic heights near the city of Kupiansk in north-eastern Ukraine.
None of the claims have been independently verified.
Mr Kirby said Kyiv itself had admitted that the push in the south - aimed at splitting the Russian land corridor to Crimea - was going slower than had been hoped.
"They have achieved some success against that second line of Russian defences," he said.
Earlier in the week, Ukraine's military said it had captured the village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region.
In the north-east, Russia has massed forces to recapture territory that Ukraine liberated east of Kharkiv.
In the south, Russia is believed to have built up an elaborate system of trenches and tunnels, defended by minefields, as well as artillery positions and so-called "dragon's teeth" anti-tank concrete barriers.

 

[Pete_uk]

Yes there is good news on the southern front.

It's good the Ukraine has modified or developed its own long range (400-1000km) missiles that will allow it to hit targets within Russia. Hope to see some long range bombers burning soon.

 

[brad465]

Yes there is good news on the southern front.

It's good the Ukraine has modified or developed its own long range (400-1000km) missiles that will allow it to hit targets within Russia. Hope to see some long range bombers burning soon.

Wouldn't be surprised if these eventually get used to properly sink the Kerch Bridge.

 

[Cloud Strife]

How do the lacquered cardboard drones get to Pskov? Pskov is a long way from Ukraine, almost in Estonia.

It's possible that they weren't even used, but if they were, then they must have been launched from within Latvia or Estonia. However, it's very telling that they haven't pointed the finger at either of those countries, suggesting that they might well have been smuggled into Russia and launched from within Russian territory. The RU-LV/EST borders are wide open, and I could tell you several places where it really wouldn't be a problem for a few well trained operatives to get in, launch and leave without being noticed.

 

[Parjon]

Or there are those inside Russia appalled by their own fascist government, and willing to take action against it

 

[edwin_m]

It's possible that they weren't even used, but if they were, then they must have been launched from within Latvia or Estonia. However, it's very telling that they haven't pointed the finger at either of those countries, suggesting that they might well have been smuggled into Russia and launched from within Russian territory. The RU-LV/EST borders are wide open, and I could tell you several places where it really wouldn't be a problem for a few well trained operatives to get in, launch and leave without being noticed.

I really hope nobody is trying to launch drones into Russia from the Baltics, as that would invite a retaliation or at the very least feed the narrative that NATO is attacking Russia. It's pretty clear that some of these drones are being launched from within Russia, but we can't know and probably shouldn't speculate how that is achieved.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Interesting article on The Guardian today: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-russias-first-line-of-defence-in-stronghold

Ukrainian forces have decisively breached Russia’s first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia after weeks of painstaking mine clearance, and expect faster gains as they press the weaker second line, the general leading the southern counteroffensive has said.

Brig Gen Oleksandr Tarnavskiy estimated Russia had devoted 60% of its time and resources into building the first defensive line and only 20% each into the second and third lines because Moscow had not expected Ukrainian forces to get through.

The article goes on to describe the process of moving forward, which was that infantry troops were carrying out mine clearance activities under the cover of night. This certainly explains the slow progress, but I think it's very significant that they've now come forward and said that the first line has been breached. The big question now is just how strong the second and third lines are.

There's an excellent description with maps of the lines on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1698264154576986518

It's very much IMO, but it seems that Ukraine is happy to move forwards slowly and surely, while using the time to continually attack the Russian forces elsewhere. They're keeping the Russian forces guessing, while every single drone that gets through and hits is showing the overall weakness of the Russian air defences. Still, I predict an onslaught of missiles aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure once we get into winter, because this is really all that Russia has left in terms of offensive capability.

 

[najaB]

Putin's "Make Russia Great Again" campaign continues. First he doubled the border with NATO, now this:

Kim Jong-un will reportedly travel to Russia this month to meet Vladimir Putin and discuss the possibility of supplying weapons for the war in Ukraine.

The two leaders will discuss the possibility of North Korea providing Russia with weapons to support its war in Ukraine and other military cooperation, an official told the US TV network CBS.

Kim Jong-un to meet Putin in Russia for talks over supplying weapons

North Korean and Russian leaders expected to discuss military cooperation in Vladivostok

www.theguardian.com

 

[DustyBin]

Putin's "Make Russia Great Again" campaign continues. First he doubled the border with NATO, now this:

Kim Jong-un to meet Putin in Russia for talks over supplying weapons

North Korean and Russian leaders expected to discuss military cooperation in Vladivostok

www.theguardian.com

I’m sure Kim Wrong-un will relish arming his new proxy in a fight against “the West”!

 

[brad465]

Putin's "Make Russia Great Again" campaign continues. First he doubled the border with NATO, now this:

Kim Jong-un to meet Putin in Russia for talks over supplying weapons

North Korean and Russian leaders expected to discuss military cooperation in Vladivostok

www.theguardian.com

There's two ways of looking at this: one is an act of desperation on the part of Putin, the other is that North Korea will be used as a means for China to supply Russia indirectly to try and cover their tracks.