Russia invades Ukraine

[Annetts key]

The tail plane which landed in a separate location to the main wreckage site seems to have a rather clean break just rearward of where the baggage compartment is.

If it was a bomb and it was loaded in Sheremetyevo airport then it is very frightening indeed as it would require a lot of insider collusion. The insider threat is also a massive risk.

Perhaps the rear separated and fell to earth faster than the rest of the wreckage which could account for the plume which I earlier mistook for a missile contrail. If we think back to TWA800, the front section fell right to earth but the main body kept flying as the wings were initially still intact, as indeed Pan Am 103 did.

Laura x

Whatever caused the explosion, once the aircraft could no longer maintain level flight, it dropped like a stone. This very rapid fall will have vastly gone far beyond the parameters that it was designed for, hence parts of the aircraft will have separated during the rapid descent. This may explain why the tail ended up in a different location to the main crash site.

Going on the available information, there were apparently two explosions. Reports of smoke trails (presumably going from the ground upwards) and shrapnel damage to various parts of the aircraft. That does lead to the likely possibility that it was attacked by surface to air missiles.

The flight data detailing level flight followed by various changes in altitude indicates that at some point the pilot had or became aware of a problem. It’s impossible to know what/why, but it’s possible that the aircraft had a threat alert system - the pilot may have known that the aircraft was being targeted.

The type of aircraft has an extremely good safety record. Obviously this does not mean that a mechanical problem did not occur. Given this was a privately operated aircraft, I think the likelihood of a bomb having been placed on board is not high.

 

[35B]

It'll probably be a function of the logic within the guidance system. It's trying to put itself close enough to a moving object so that when it detonates its warhead the shrapnel shreds the target. Considering the target is likely to be moving forwards at considerable speed and the missile coming up from below effectively at some level of perpendicular the software will have to lead the target by default to ensure a successful interception. That leads you into detonating at the front of the aircraft. Plus the cockpit and all it's vital control equipment (both hardware, software and, er, 'wetware') tend to be at the front of aircraft meaning its also a good area to be trying to damage.

A while back, I had the dubious pleasure of having the workings of "Bloodhound" and "Rapier" air defence missiles explained. They did their work by creating a cage of metal that shreds the aircraft that flies into it.

 

[ainsworth74]

A while back, I had the dubious pleasure of having the workings of "Bloodhound" and "Rapier" air defence missiles explained. They did their work by creating a cage of metal that shreds the aircraft that flies into it.

Absolutely, actually hitting an aircraft is quite hard. The whole moving quickly, and often attempting to evade the incoming missile that's trying to kill you thing. So if you can create a cage or similar of metal that massively increases the chance of a hit as that's a lot larger than the missile itself. Close enough is good enough effectively!

 

[dakta]

Yeah just a case of not going to where the plane is, but where its about to be and make it unpleasant environment for when it gets there, actual impacts going to be an exceptional situation.

It likely doesnt take much to do serious harm, aircraft are light, skins thin and turbines dont generally enjoy gargling on ball bearings and capable of taking themselves out anyway once out of balance

 

[najaB]

Yeah just a case of not going to where the plane is, but where its about to be and make it unpleasant environment for when it gets there, actual impacts going to be an exceptional situation.

Mandatory meme post:

 

[swt_passenger]

A while back, I had the dubious pleasure of having the workings of "Bloodhound" and "Rapier" air defence missiles explained. They did their work by creating a cage of metal that shreds the aircraft that flies into it.

An expanding rod or continuous rod warhead. IIRC also used in Seaslug (contemporary with Bloodhound) and the original Seadart.

 

[dakta]

Mandatory meme post:

Now I know what internal conflict is happening in my satnav when i miss a turn

 

[azOOOOOma]

Scary place indeed. I never operated Moscow flights and doubt I ever will. If support for the invasion special military operation wanes in Russia, what better way of refocusing minds than blowing up a plane full of Russian holiday makers and blaming Ukraine.

I’m definitely leaning more into the theory of a bomb. Breakup sequence seems to be the vertical stabiliser together with horizontal stabiliser detaching from the fuselage. Speculation but a flat spin was entered which over stressed a wing which detached and was found separate from the main crash site and the tail. This is several km away and had already been moved. It’s as if they aren’t even investigating it. Just pulling it away to take to the scrap yard.

Then you have the rest of the aircraft tumbling with the fuselage intact. I imagine there would have been a high chance of passengers in the rear falling from the aircraft as part of the explosive decompression which could explain the missing two bodies.

 

[najaB]

It’s as if they aren’t even investigating it. Just pulling it away to take to the scrap yard.

Do you need to investigate when you've still got the receipt for the explosives?

 

[edwin_m]

I’m definitely leaning more into the theory of a bomb.

Seems more likely than trying to get one of your missile teams to shoot it down. But possibly by someone getting into the hangar and planting it, rather than via luggage, since we can probably assume the Wagner people would have checked theirs carefully.

 

[DustyBin]

Scary place indeed. I never operated Moscow flights and doubt I ever will. If support for the invasion special military operation wanes in Russia, what better way of refocusing minds than blowing up a plane full of Russian holiday makers and blaming Ukraine.

I’m definitely leaning more into the theory of a bomb. Breakup sequence seems to be the vertical stabiliser together with horizontal stabiliser detaching from the fuselage. Speculation but a flat spin was entered which over stressed a wing which detached and was found separate from the main crash site and the tail. This is several km away and had already been moved. It’s as if they aren’t even investigating it. Just pulling it away to take to the scrap yard.

Then you have the rest of the aircraft tumbling with the fuselage intact. I imagine there would have been a high chance of passengers in the rear falling from the aircraft as part of the explosive decompression which could explain the missing two bodies.

This sounds entirely plausible.

Seems more likely than trying to get one of your missile teams to shoot it down. But possibly by someone getting into the hangar and planting it, rather than via luggage, since we can probably assume the Wagner people would have checked theirs carefully.

I'm not sure the information is accurate, but there are reports of some last minute "maintenance" being required immediately before takeoff. Apparently a crew member sent a message to a friend/relative saying that they were slightly delayed. Again, this is unconfirmed, but I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be true.

 

[bspahh]

This sounds entirely plausible.



I'm not sure the information is accurate, but there are reports of some last minute "maintenance" being required immediately before takeoff. Apparently a crew member sent a message to a friend/relative saying that they were slightly delayed. Again, this is unconfirmed, but I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be true.

If it was my job to investigate this incident like this, I would first want to check what conclusions I was supposed to come to.

 

[DustyBin]

If it was my job to investigate this incident like this, I would first want to check what conclusions I was suppose to come to.

Me too. I suspect there's more than just funding at stake in this instance!

 

[azOOOOOma]

Good point. I believe the MetroJet massacre out of Sharm was a device hidden in a drinks can.

 

[Annetts key]

The so called reports of some last minute "maintenance" being required immediately before takeoff may be irrelevant. It’s not unknown for civilian Aircraft to have very minor work carried out before departure.

It’s the pilots that decide if the aircraft is fit to fly.

Unfortunately, this having occurred in Russia means that it’s likely we will never know for certain exactly what happened.

 

[DustyBin]

The so called reports of some last minute "maintenance" being required immediately before takeoff may be irrelevant. It’s not unknown for civilian Aircraft to have very minor work carried out before departure.

It’s the pilots that decide if the aircraft is fit to fly.

Unfortunately, this having occurred in Russia means that it’s likely we will never know for certain exactly what happened.

The insinuation is that there was nothing wrong with the aircraft, but some kind of device was planted last-minute (of course we don't actually know if it was a bomb that brought it down). Again, this is all unconfirmed as far as I'm aware.

 

[yorksrob]

The Russian Authorities "oh no, it couldn't possibly be us who blew it up" !

 

[najaB]

The insinuation is that there was nothing wrong with the aircraft, but some kind of device was planted last-minute (of course we don't actually know if it was a bomb that brought it down).

I think the point that @Annetts key was making is that we shouldn't put too much weight on the last-minute nature of the maintenance being an unusual or suspicious occurrence suggestive of malfeasance, since it happens all the time.

 

[dakta]

Give Putin's reputation, previous actions, and the fact Prigozhin was considered a dead man walking arguably even before the 'coup like' actions due to his very public criticism of the way the war was going, the one thing that sort of makes me wonder is why he'd be on a plane.

You'd be thinking you'd be limiting your vulnerability somewhat, jetting about enclosed vulnerable space in the airspace of a lunatic with missiles, bombs, nerve agents and whatnot just seems like a very poor risk assessment? Maybe he was just overconfident but it seems a bit risky that. You did kinda march a small army to Putin's door, it's not a cancelled christmas card affair

 

[Gloster]

Although I don’t want to get into conspiracy theories, the one thing that surprises me is that Prigozhin went ahead and flew after the flight had been delayed due to unspecified maintenance (if the reports are true). If I had been in his shoes alarm bells would have been ringing loudly in my head and I would have switched planes or gone another way. If you do want to get onto conspiracy theories, there could be the possibility that he bombed his own plane so that he could disappear or that he merely stayed at the departure point to see what would happen. He has the ruthlessness, the money and the need to take such an opportunity. Has his body been definitely identified?

 

[yorksrob]

Fo

Although I don’t want to get into conspiracy theories, the one thing that surprises me is that Prigozhin went ahead and flew after the flight had been delayed due to unspecified maintenance (if the reports are true). If I had been in his shoes alarm bells would have been ringing loudly in my head and I would have switched planes or gone another way. If you do want to get onto conspiracy theories, there could be the possibility that he bombed his own plane so that he could disappear or that he merely stayed at the departure point to see what would happen. He has the ruthlessness, the money and the need to take such an opportunity. Has his body been definitely identified?

Indeed

The Kremlin lets its subjects know that the rebel is dead.

Meanwhile the "rebel" is allowed to continue puffing up Russia in Africa.

It seems like a good option for the Kremlin (apart from the fact that it would be impossible to keep Prigozhin shut up)

They've probably bumped him off.

 

[Annetts key]

I think the point that @Annetts key was making is that we shouldn't put too much weight on the last-minute nature of the maintenance being an unusual or suspicious occurrence suggestive of malfeasance, since it happens all the time.

Exactly. If the preflight checks revealed a minor problem, a slight delay while it’s checked/investigated/sorted out is not unusual. In some cases the problem may not be considered significant enough to prevent the aircraft from flying without the problem being fixed. But the appropriate checks with mechanics may have to be done first.

And don’t get me wrong, it’s also possible that something more sinister occurred. If the pilots are informed by a mechanic that something needs attention, they will normally prefer to have done if possible before takeoff. That could have been an excuse to load an explosive device on to the aircraft.

But as I said earlier, with the available information, to me, the possibility of a surface to air missile does currently appear to be the most likely.

An internal explosion that caused two explosions sounds (assuming the witness report is accurate) and which caused shrapnel damage on various different parts of the aircraft, is possible. But not if the parts of the aircraft that were damaged by shrapnel are ahead of where the explosion occurred. Unfortunately, we don’t know enough yet to be confident on making a definitive conclusion.

 

[DustyBin]

I think the point that @Annetts key was making is that we shouldn't put too much weight on the last-minute nature of the maintenance being an unusual or suspicious occurrence suggestive of malfeasance, since it happens all the time.

That’s fair enough, I agree it doesn’t exactly prove anything (and as I keep saying we don’t even know if it’s true). It’s a possibility though at this stage, and possibilities are all we have to go on.

Give Putin's reputation, previous actions, and the fact Prigozhin was considered a dead man walking arguably even before the 'coup like' actions due to his very public criticism of the way the war was going, the one thing that sort of makes me wonder is why he'd be on a plane.

You'd be thinking you'd be limiting your vulnerability somewhat, jetting about enclosed vulnerable space in the airspace of a lunatic with missiles, bombs, nerve agents and whatnot just seems like a very poor risk assessment? Maybe he was just overconfident but it seems a bit risky that. You did kinda march a small army to Putin's door, it's not a cancelled christmas card affair

I can’t help but wonder what the crew were thinking. Talk about putting yourself in the firing line (literally).

Although I don’t want to get into conspiracy theories, the one thing that surprises me is that Prigozhin went ahead and flew after the flight had been delayed due to unspecified maintenance (if the reports are true). If I had been in his shoes alarm bells would have been ringing loudly in my head and I would have switched planes or gone another way. If you do want to get onto conspiracy theories, there could be the possibility that he bombed his own plane so that he could disappear or that he merely stayed at the departure point to see what would happen. He has the ruthlessness, the money and the need to take such an opportunity. Has his body been definitely identified?

The other obvious conspiracy theory is that he’s been dead for weeks and wasn’t even on the plane. I’m not saying that’s what I believe personally, but anything’s possible with this lot.

 

[najaB]

I can’t help but wonder what the crew were thinking. Talk about putting yourself in the firing line (literally).

As others have pointed out, while it was ostensibly a civilian aircraft it was effectively a military transport and the pilots were more than likely Russian air force veterans.

 

[GusB]

What puzzles me about this whole situation is that that both Progozhin and one of his deputies (Utkin?) were both said to be on the same plane. I understand that sometimes people are cocky enough to think that nothing is going to happen to them but, seriously, are/were they seriously stupid enough to board the same aircraft? I don't think so.

 

[DustyBin]

As others have pointed out, while it was ostensibly a civilian aircraft it was effectively a military transport and the pilots were more than likely Russian air force veterans.

It was registered to Wagner so I agree it was effectively a military (or PMC) transport. I hadn’t thought about the crew being ex-military to be honest but it makes sense. If anything though they’d be even more likely to be thinking “is this a good idea” surely? What was the role of the third crew member? I have visions of some unfortunate stewardess serving champagne and caviar whilst praying for a safe journey, but maybe that’s just me!

 

[Falcon1200]

I understand that sometimes people are cocky enough to think that nothing is going to happen to them but, seriously, are/were they seriously stupid enough to board the same aircraft?

Perhaps it was a measure of Putin's malevolent genius, lulling Prigozhin and his comrades into a false sense of security by making promises and leaving them alone for a while before striking.

 

[DustyBin]

Perhaps it was a measure of Putin's malevolent genius, lulling Prigozhin and his comrades into a false sense of security by making promises and leaving them alone for a while before striking.

He’s certainly mixed it up a bit here. Had he invited them to a rooftop party at the Moscow Ritz-Carlton, or afternoon tea at the Hyatt, I suspect they’d have smelt a rat……

 

[dakta]

I dont think the purpose of the jet makes a lot of difference, its pne hell of a risk to get into a defenceless environment thousands of feet within the airspace of a madman you just drove tanks to with a history of killing enemies in a variety of ways with little regard for collateral.

Not so much a conspiracy thought a more are they all mad thought.

 

[edwin_m]

If you do want to get onto conspiracy theories, there could be the possibility that he bombed his own plane so that he could disappear or that he merely stayed at the departure point to see what would happen. He has the ruthlessness, the money and the need to take such an opportunity. Has his body been definitely identified?

I did wonder about that, but it would be difficult to pull it off given that the Russian state undoubtedly has his DNA and would be able to identify the remains definitively. The only way it would work is if Putin was complicit - which is actually possible if he thinks Prigozin could still be useful under the radar, but his own hold on power depends on revenge being seen to be meted out.

There was a video (Warographics on YouTube) that suggested there could have been some jamming involved. It wasn't entirely convincing but is there any better source for this? I guess it's possible they managed to install some sort of on-board jammer too, to activate just before the bomb and make it impossible for the pilots to radio ATC and tell them what was going on.