Russia invades Ukraine

[brad465]

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1694430755798355980

Prigozhin did a Luna-25 tribute act.

Been out cycling for 3 hours so this was quite the news to come back to.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

I got quite the start this evening, as my wife’s commute was disrupted due to a light aircraft crashing on our local A-road, put the BBC on to see if it is mentioned and top story is ‘Prigozhyn presumed dead in aircraft crash’! Took me a moment to realise it was two different events

 

[azOOOOOma]

The white stream of smoke to the left of the video is very reminiscent of the streak of smoke toward MH17. I’d be interested to see if other air traffic were being diverted around the area as there’s usually a few planes coming into or out of Moscow or on the airway between Moscow and St Petersburg. If this was pre-planned and deliberate then it’s incredible reckless toward the civil aircraft in the area.

I’ve always said that if I was twisted and a little sick in the head (like Putin), I’d blow up a domestic flight out of Moscow headed to the Russian far east or China/Thailand/Turkey. Basically any 777 route for maximum body count and shock and then blame it on Ukraine.

When I first saw this news break I felt sick thinking that my prediction had came true.

 

[Busaholic]

I got quite the start this evening, as my wife’s commute was disrupted due to a light aircraft crashing on our local A-road, put the BBC on to see if it is mentioned and top story is ‘Prigozhyn presumed dead in aircraft crash’! Took me a moment to realise it was two different events

I've been celebrating 35th anniversary of our move to Cornwall today. In that time, the Berlin Wall came down on our 20th wedding anniversary and Nelson Mandela was released from prison on my wife's 40th birthday. Her 60th birthday began with our best friend's funeral. People sometimes think it's weird that I can remember the exact dates of certain events! Today's news will be no exception.

 

[Cowley]

Does anyone know who else was on that plane? I assume that the Vagner Group as just lost quite a few of their top people in this erm, unfortunate incident..?

 

[brad465]

Does anyone know who else was on that plane? I assume that the Vagner Group as just lost quite a few of their top people in this erm, unfortunate incident..?

Wagner co-founder Dmitry Utkin apparently as well. There were 3 crew members, although don't know/remember the remaining passengers and their positions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-66599774

Key Wagner commander Utkin also on board plane, authorities say​

Wagner's commander and co-founder Dmitry Utkin was also named as one of those travelling on the crashed plane, on the list released by Russia's air transport agency.
Grey Zone, the Telegram channel believed linked to Wagner, also said that Utkin has been killed.

 

[Bantamzen]

The white stream of smoke to the left of the video is very reminiscent of the streak of smoke toward MH17. I’d be interested to see if other air traffic were being diverted around the area as there’s usually a few planes coming into or out of Moscow or on the airway between Moscow and St Petersburg. If this was pre-planned and deliberate then it’s incredible reckless toward the civil aircraft in the area.

I’ve always said that if I was twisted and a little sick in the head (like Putin), I’d blow up a domestic flight out of Moscow headed to the Russian far east or China/Thailand/Turkey. Basically any 777 route for maximum body count and shock and then blame it on Ukraine.

When I first saw this news break I felt sick thinking that my prediction had came true.

They've allegedly already done that with Malaysian flight MH17, or at the very least military groups acting on behalf of or supported by Moscow have been accused of downing that flight in 2014.

As for Prigozhin's "accident", it is obviously purely a coincidence that today is Ukraine's Independence Day. Apparently Ukraines have been thanking Putin for the early gift on social media, but get ready for the Kremlin going into full "It was Ukraine wot done it guv" mode, despite them clearly being the ones involved... erm... cough... allegedly...

 

[azOOOOOma]

It seems a different type of mission this time. The BUK which took down MH17 explodes close to the cockpit, as did the mission which took down Ukraine International 752.

This missile seems to have struck part of the wing and reminds me of the DHL attempted shoot down which was a MANPAD.

I’ve seen a few pics out there with the telltale shrapnel marks that we saw on MH17, PS752 and MetroJet 9268 (the Sharm-el-Sheik to St Petersburg massacre). So it is convincing evidence of an explosion. Wether it happened inside the aircraft or outside the aircraft, I simply can’t quite tell yet. I’m sure more pics will emerge throughout the day. It will be easier to figure out if the projectiles are going out of the plane or into the plane.

Having worked in aviation for a long time, MANPADS are my greatest fear as they can slip into position pretty discreetly, fire and then vanish into the night. Not so easy with a BUK and its TLAR. Scary stuff.

 

[ainsworth74]

As for Prigozhin's "accident", it is obviously purely a coincidence that today is Ukraine's Independence Day. Apparently Ukraines have been thanking Putin for the early gift on social media, but get ready for the Kremlin going into full "It was Ukraine wot done it guv" mode, despite them clearly being the ones involved... erm... cough... allegedly...

This missile seems to have struck part of the wing and reminds me of the DHL attempted shoot down which was a MANPAD.

If it was somewhere between 30,000 and 20,000 feet of altitude (as reported by Flightradar24) when hit then that's considerably beyond the capability of any man portable system. Whilst I don't doubt the capabilities of Ukrainian special operations I don't buy that they've been able to sneak a system with the capability to hit an aircraft at that altitude into Russia without someone noticing. Even allowing for Russian incompetence. If it was missile, and the trail approaching the aircraft certainly suggests a missile, then simplest and most likely explanation is that a Russian air defence site near Moscow took the shot.

After leveling off at 28,000 feet at 15:10 UTC, the aircraft continued in level flight at consistent speed until 15:19 UTC at which point the vertical rate decreases dramatically and the aircraft descends briefly before climbing to a maximum altitude of 30,100 feet before descending back to roughly 27,500 feet. It again climbs, reaching 29,300 feet before leveling off once again. It then descends, with the final data received at 15:20:14 UTC at an altitude of 19,725 feet.

Russian Legacy 600 crashes near Tver | Flightradar24 Blog

An Embraer Legacy 600 associated with Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin crashed in Russia after departing Moscow.

www.flightradar24.com

 

[DustyBin]

It seems a different type of mission this time. The BUK which took down MH17 explodes close to the cockpit, as did the mission which took down Ukraine International 752.

This missile seems to have struck part of the wing and reminds me of the DHL attempted shoot down which was a MANPAD.

I’ve seen a few pics out there with the telltale shrapnel marks that we saw on MH17, PS752 and MetroJet 9268 (the Sharm-el-Sheik to St Petersburg massacre). So it is convincing evidence of an explosion. Wether it happened inside the aircraft or outside the aircraft, I simply can’t quite tell yet. I’m sure more pics will emerge throughout the day. It will be easier to figure out if the projectiles are going out of the plane or into the plane.

Having worked in aviation for a long time, MANPADS are my greatest fear as they can slip into position pretty discreetly, fire and then vanish into the night. Not so easy with a BUK and its TLAR. Scary stuff.

Do BUK missiles (and those of similar surface to air systems) effectively intercept the aircraft and explode near the front as a general rule? I’m sure I read somewhere that they do, leaving tell-tale shrapnel damage.

I’ve not seen any suggestion that it was shot down by another aircraft; is this not another possibility?

 

[najaB]

I’ve not seen any suggestion that it was shot down by another aircraft; is this not another possibility?

It's possible, but I've not seen any reports of another aircraft in the immediate vicinity.

 

[ainsworth74]

Do BUK missiles (and those of similar surface to air systems) effectively intercept the aircraft and explode near the front as a general rule?

It'll probably be a function of the logic within the guidance system. It's trying to put itself close enough to a moving object so that when it detonates its warhead the shrapnel shreds the target. Considering the target is likely to be moving forwards at considerable speed and the missile coming up from below effectively at some level of perpendicular the software will have to lead the target by default to ensure a successful interception. That leads you into detonating at the front of the aircraft. Plus the cockpit and all it's vital control equipment (both hardware, software and, er, 'wetware') tend to be at the front of aircraft meaning its also a good area to be trying to damage.

I’ve not seen any suggestion that it was shot down by another aircraft; is this not another possibility?

Certainly possible and, of course, Flightradar24 would have no idea if a military aircraft was in the area unless it wanted to be seen. But I believe most people have gone for surface to air on the basis of the video showing a white plume heading towards the aircraft seemingly coming from the ground.

 

[DustyBin]

It'll probably be a function of the logic within the guidance system. It's trying to put itself close enough to a moving object so that when it detonates its warhead the shrapnel shreds the target. Considering the target is likely to be moving forwards at considerable speed and the missile coming up from below effectively at some level of perpendicular the software will have to lead the target by default to ensure a successful interception. That leads you into detonating at the front of the aircraft. Plus the cockpit and all it's vital control equipment (both hardware, software and, er, 'wetware') tend to be at the front of aircraft meaning its also a good area to be trying to damage.



Certainly possible and, of course, Flightradar24 would have no idea if a military aircraft was in the area unless it wanted to be seen. But I believe most people have gone for surface to air on the basis of the video showing a white plume heading towards the aircraft seemingly coming from the ground.

That makes sense, thanks.

I'll be honest, I haven't studied the images in detail but I thought the white plume may actually be falling debris at first glance. One image appears to show the aircraft minus a wing, although it's difficult to tell.

 

[edwin_m]

It'll probably be a function of the logic within the guidance system. It's trying to put itself close enough to a moving object so that when it detonates its warhead the shrapnel shreds the target. Considering the target is likely to be moving forwards at considerable speed and the missile coming up from below effectively at some level of perpendicular the software will have to lead the target by default to ensure a successful interception. That leads you into detonating at the front of the aircraft. Plus the cockpit and all it's vital control equipment (both hardware, software and, er, 'wetware') tend to be at the front of aircraft meaning its also a good area to be trying to damage.



Certainly possible and, of course, Flightradar24 would have no idea if a military aircraft was in the area unless it wanted to be seen. But I believe most people have gone for surface to air on the basis of the video showing a white plume heading towards the aircraft seemingly coming from the ground.

A missile targeting an aircraft by exploding near it should ideally explode slightly ahead, so the target flies into the oncoming fragments. If exploding behind, the fragments moving towards the target will impact at reduced relative speed and may never catch up if the target is going too fast, and fragments going away from the target won't impact at all. Exploding to the side is somewhere in between.

The surface to air missiles being used here have long ranges - Ukraine has reportedly used obsolete S-200s (possibly with upgraded navigation) to hit Moscow. So Ukraine may have the capability to hit an aircraft in this area, particularly a civilian one with no countermeasures (though Wagner may have fitted some). But I guess Putin has more of a motive.

Conspiracy corner: a second plane was mentioned - could it be that Prigozhin was actually on that, maybe having put a body double on the first one?

 

[najaB]

The surface to air missiles being used here have long ranges - Ukraine has reportedly used obsolete S-200s (possibly with upgraded navigation) to hit Moscow. So Ukraine may have the capability to hit an aircraft in this area...

They've used the S-200s to hit ground targets in Russia. Buildings, generally speaking, don't move nearly as fast nor are as manoeuvrable as jet aircraft so are a bit easier to target.

 

[edwin_m]

They've used the S-200s to hit ground targets in Russia. Buildings, generally speaking, don't move nearly as fast nor are as manoeuvrable as jet aircraft so are a bit easier to target.

Indeed, but the S-200 was originally intended to be a surface to air missile, so presumably has some ability to strike fast-moving objects. And a civilian jet is likely to be following a fairly predictable course and unlikely to take evasive action.

 

[ainsworth74]

A missile targeting an aircraft by exploding near it should ideally explode slightly ahead, so the target flies into the oncoming fragments. If exploding behind, the fragments moving towards the target will impact at reduced relative speed and may never catch up if the target is going too fast, and fragments going away from the target won't impact at all. Exploding to the side is somewhere in between.

Yes that's sort of what I was driving at as well. There's quite a lot of factors that mean exploding slightly ahead of, or at least at the front of, an aircraft is the ideal location for a missile.

The surface to air missiles being used here have long ranges - Ukraine has reportedly used obsolete S-200s (possibly with upgraded navigation) to hit Moscow. So Ukraine may have the capability to hit an aircraft in this area, particularly a civilian one with no countermeasures (though Wagner may have fitted some).

No way an S-200 or S-300 (the variant Ukraine are still operating in their air defence original role) have the range to engage an aircraft near Moscow. It's almost 500km away from the Ukrainian border to Moscow and the maximum effective engagement range of such systems is more on the order 200/300km at most. The radar tracking required can't reach much beyond 200km, and even that might be tenuous depending on conditions, let alone actually guiding them to target. Using them as primitive ballistic missiles against fixed targets might allow you to get a missile out to that sort of distance but to actually engage a moving target? No-way. Nothing Ukraine has in it's air defence forces is capable of making such a hit.

 

[najaB]

No way an S-200 or S-300 (the variant Ukraine are still operating in their air defence original role) have the range to engage an aircraft near Moscow. It's almost 500km away from the Ukrainian border to Moscow and the maximum effective engagement range of such systems is more on the order 200/300km at most.

For the S-200 it would be more like 150km.

 

[DustyBin]

Yes that's sort of what I was driving at as well. There's quite a lot of factors that mean exploding slightly ahead of, or at least at the front of, an aircraft is the ideal location for a missile.

No way an S-200 or S-300 (the variant Ukraine are still operating in their air defence original role) have the range to engage an aircraft near Moscow. It's almost 500km away from the Ukrainian border to Moscow and the maximum effective engagement range of such systems is more on the order 200/300km at most. The radar tracking required can't reach much beyond 200km, and even that might be tenuous depending on conditions, let alone actually guiding them to target. Using them as primitive ballistic missiles against fixed targets might allow you to get a missile out to that sort of distance but to actually engage a moving target? No-way. Nothing Ukraine has in it's air defence forces is capable of making such a hit.

If they did have that kind of capability I suspect they'd be using it against the Russian military aircraft targeting Ukrainian cities....

 

[ainsworth74]

For the S-200 it would be more like 150km.

Absolutely, I was thinking about their S-300s which are still being used for air defence but the S-200 would have even shorter legs like you say.

If they did have that kind of capability I suspect they'd be using it against the Russian military aircraft targeting Ukrainian cities....

Quite!

 

[Gloster]

The Evening Standard (remember who owns it) via my yahoo newsfeed is reporting that the flight attendant told her relatives about an unexplained delay due to ‘repairs’. One wonders if these repairs involved a box that went tick-tock.

 

[azOOOOOma]

The tail plane which landed in a separate location to the main wreckage site seems to have a rather clean break just rearward of where the baggage compartment is.

If it was a bomb and it was loaded in Sheremetyevo airport then it is very frightening indeed as it would require a lot of insider collusion. The insider threat is also a massive risk.

Perhaps the rear separated and fell to earth faster than the rest of the wreckage which could account for the plume which I earlier mistook for a missile contrail. If we think back to TWA800, the front section fell right to earth but the main body kept flying as the wings were initially still intact, as indeed Pan Am 103 did.

Laura x

 

[najaB]

If it was a bomb and it was loaded in Sheremetyevo airport then it is very frightening indeed as it would require a lot of insider collusion. The insider threat is also a massive risk.

Unless the 'insider' happened to hold an FSB identity card...

 

[Gloster]

I do not know enough to pontificate and certainly don’t intend to indulge in wishful thinking, but could this ultimately be damaging to Putin. I am wondering if it might cause considerable unease within the ‘professional’ army (i.e. not the conscripts) who might just begin to feel that they have backed the wrong horse. Putin has got his close group of supporters who have no choice to follow him to the bitter end, but further out could doubts start to grow.

 

[ainsworth74]

I am wondering if it might cause considerable unease within the ‘professional’ army (i.e. not the conscripts) who might just begin to feel that they have backed the wrong horse.

Is there much of them left? Most of them are dead in Ukraine or unfit to serve at this point I'd wager!

But I do think you're right more generally. Assuming that this was Putin it could have a lot of unintended consequences. Previously those in the "elite" were, in general, off-limits. At least in terms of being killed off. If that's no longer true that raises the stakes in Russia for everyone in that class of person.

 

[Bantamzen]

I do not know enough to pontificate and certainly don’t intend to indulge in wishful thinking, but could this ultimately be damaging to Putin. I am wondering if it might cause considerable unease within the ‘professional’ army (i.e. not the conscripts) who might just begin to feel that they have backed the wrong horse. Putin has got his close group of supporters who have no choice to follow him to the bitter end, but further out could doubts start to grow.

Interestingly the BBC's live feed has this quote from earlier this morning:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-66599774

Grey Zone, a Wagner-linked account on Telegram, speculated that Yevgeny Prigozhin's plane had been downed by Russia’s air defences.

Grey Zone remains the only key account linked to the military group which has so far claimed that Prigozhin is dead.

In a post yesterday evening, it said the Wagner boss “died as a result of actions by traitors of Russia”.

Roman Saponkov, a war reporter thought to be linked to Wagner, also argued that the group’s chief had been assassinated.

"Prigozhin’s killing will have catastrophic consequences. People who gave the order completely fail to understand the mood and morale in the army,” he said.

DShRG Rusich, a popular pro-war account, suggested that Prigozhin had been killed because he ended his mutiny in June without reaching Moscow.

“Let this be a lesson for everyone. You need to go all the way,” it said.

Reading between the lines is sounds like anger might be directed back at Moscow by some quarters. It could get interesting for Putin.

 

[edwin_m]

If they did have that kind of capability I suspect they'd be using it against the Russian military aircraft targeting Ukrainian cities....

That's a good point. I did suggest it was more likely to be Putin than Ukraine and this provides a good reason. Zelensky also denied involvement, not that that means very much.

 

[GS250]

I reckon it it was an 'inside job'...whoever placed the alleged device will soon be falling off a cliff.

 

[nw1]

Must surely be Putin, as revenge for the attempted coup?

 

[wilbers]

That's a good point. I did suggest it was more likely to be Putin than Ukraine and this provides a good reason. Zelensky also denied involvement, not that that means very much.

Zelensky's denial has more weight because of Ukraine's action in Crimea on its Independence Day.