Passenger numbers after the holiday period

[Adrian1980uk]

Given the peak trains are fairly busy at the moment while a number of people are on holiday, I've been thinking commuting September/ October times will be packed Tuesday/Wednesday/Thurs as I expect another push from employers to get people back in the offices at least 2 days a week.

Is anyone else noticing trains are pretty busy at the moment

 

[irish_rail]

Sssshhhh don't tell anyone. The "governemnt" don't want anyone to know train travel is doing well! Makes it harder to deny the staff a payrise after 4 years of none whatsoever!

 

[BPN2022]

From previous experience during school holidays this year, I would say AM peak is quieter but off peak and evening peak busier than commuting periods of Sep/Oct.

 

[Topological]

Sssshhhh don't tell anyone. The "governemnt" don't want anyone to know train travel is doing well! Makes it harder to deny the staff a payrise after 4 years of none whatsoever!

Certainly makes it harder to justify cutting services/capacity.

Might emphasise the need to raise efficiencies to deal with the increased numbers effectively. May also embolden the government to believe that their decision not to respond to strikes is the right one as well. In that sense care should be taken linking numbers to either side of the ongoing strike debate.

 

[Taplowgreen]

Sssshhhh don't tell anyone. The "governemnt" don't want anyone to know train travel is doing well! Makes it harder to deny the staff a payrise after 4 years of none whatsoever!

Passsenger numbers may be up but revenue is only at 70% of pre COVID levels - that's the number that the Government are looking at, and currently pumping hundreds of millions of £ in to make up the deficit.

It's less raw numbers that count - the vast reservoir of commuters buying season tickets/peak fares has diminished and leisure passengers on super off peak returns simply don't mitigate that sufficiently.

 

[yorksrob]

Passsenger numbers may be up but revenue is only at 70% of pre COVID levels - that's the number that the Government are looking at, and currently pumping hundreds of millions of £ in to make up the deficit.

It's less raw numbers that count - the vast reservoir of commuters buying season tickets/peak fares has diminished and leisure passengers on super off peak returns simply don't mitigate that sufficiently.

Yes, we've heard the Government's excuses many times.

 

[paul1609]

I had to go on a 0700 ish Tonbridge to London Bridge service last Tuesday for a hospital appointment. Summer holidays were always a quieter time but a 12 car would have generally been full by Sevenoaks. Last week the station car park had 15 cars in the 300 spaces, the reduced to 8 car train was maybe 15% full on leaving Sevenoaks.
Anecdotal I know but those that think income is back to pre pandemic levels are kidding themselves.
Pre-pandemic by fares income Southeastern was a bigger TOC than LNER. GTR was roughly the same size as LNER + Avanti + half of GWR.

 

[Ashfordian6]

Passsenger numbers may be up but revenue is only at 70% of pre COVID levels - that's the number that the Government are looking at, and currently pumping hundreds of millions of £ in to make up the deficit.

It's less raw numbers that count - the vast reservoir of commuters buying season tickets/peak fares has diminished and leisure passengers on super off peak returns simply don't mitigate that sufficiently.

Why is there (deliberately?) no mention in the above about the additional billions needed to pay the increased interest on the Network rail debt?

That is where the real deficit now is.

 

[northwichcat]

It's less raw numbers that count - the vast reservoir of commuters buying season tickets/peak fares has diminished and leisure passengers on super off peak returns simply don't mitigate that sufficiently.

But new flexiseason tickets are being purchased by hybrid workers and they generate more revenue per journey than traditional season tickets.

Also train strikes aren't affecting hybrid workers that much. They can change their office days to be the days trains are running, meaning less of a revenue hit from industrial action than there would otherwise be.

 

[hwl]

Passsenger numbers may be up but revenue is only at 70% of pre COVID levels - that's the number that the Government are looking at, and currently pumping hundreds of millions of £ in to make up the deficit.

It's less raw numbers that count - the vast reservoir of commuters buying season tickets/peak fares has diminished and leisure passengers on super off peak returns simply don't mitigate that sufficiently.

The big missing element is the missing business travellers expensing peak open fares.
The is a big difference between recovery in commuters and business travellers post Covid.

 

[SirDanielGooch]

Traveling up to Scotland from the west country for the bank holiday weekend plus a bit more, and despite it being the day after a strike and warnings plastered all over every ticketing site going my 5-car voyager is rammed full to standing and is borderline dangerously full. Good thing they’re not binning off some 7 coach trains with no replacement lined up! The capacity along the Exeter-Bristol route I regularly use is pitiful and only getting worse.

The railways are being used, and in good numbers, but no one seems happy about doing so. The passenger experience is shocking and the value is awful. It’s a great opportunity to establish rail as the norm and as a comfortable eco-friendly means of travel, and the government have absolutely no interest in taking the chance (as no government has for decades).

 

[Snow1964]

Given the peak trains are fairly busy at the moment while a number of people are on holiday, I've been thinking commuting September/ October times will be packed Tuesday/Wednesday/Thurs as I expect another push from employers to get people back in the offices at least 2 days a week.

Is anyone else noticing trains are pretty busy at the moment

I commuted into Waterloo for over 20 years, late July and August were always significantly quieter (during school holidays)

First 3 weeks of September were roughly normal, but clearly those not tied to school holidays often took holidays then.

Would be very busy from end September until about first week of December (except school half term week last week in October).

From second week of December rush hour would always quieten down, as many would travel in later during Christmas party season.

So Sept, Oct not busiest, November always was as hardly anyone takes holidays in November.

Now live nearer Bath and much less of a rush hour, more even throughout the whole daytime, but people still forced to stand on many trains. I'm told by neighbours etc that trains are generally lot busier now locally than few years ago, even though we are stuck with 31+ year old diesel trains with lack of capacity.

In my view London commuting has fallen, regional commuting might be busier.

 

[northwichcat]

The big missing element is the missing business travellers expensing peak open fares.
The is a big difference between recovery in commuters and business travellers post Covid.

I would have thought there's more now, even allowing for more meetings happening over Zoom or Teams. Five years ago there were a lot less people living 100+ miles from their employer's office. While they might only be travelling once a month, an Anytime Return from Hartford to London costs more than a monthly season for Northwich to Chester.

 

[renegademaster]

Surely the whole peak/off-peak fare structure must be getting overhauled soon? Either with the weekends becoming the new expensive period, airline like dynamic pricing or just flat fares. The old timings don't make any sense

 

[Hadders]

Surely the whole peak/off-peak fare structure must be getting overhauled soon? Either with the weekends becoming the new expensive period, airline like dynamic pricing or just flat fares. The old timings don't make any sense

It's an interesting question. Feel free to start a new thread in Rail Fares & Policy but some of us will have a few questions!
Remember also that any proposals must not result in the Government having to provide any more subsidy.

 

[12LDA28C]

Anecdotal I know but those that think income is back to pre pandemic levels are kidding themselves.

Who is claiming that income (revenue) is back to pre-pandemic levels? Clearly it isn't, however passenger numbers on some routes are approaching pre-pandemic levels and on some operators are now higher than they were before Covid. Leisure travel has increased quite dramatically and the shortfall is not so much from commuters (although that is part of it) but more business travel which is much lower than pre-pandemic and very unlikely to recover.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

Passsenger numbers may be up but revenue is only at 70% of pre COVID levels - that's the number that the Government are looking at, and currently pumping hundreds of millions of £ in to make up the deficit.

It's less raw numbers that count - the vast reservoir of commuters buying season tickets/peak fares has diminished and leisure passengers on super off peak returns simply don't mitigate that sufficiently.

As ever with statistics, it depends which numbers you look at 70% figure excludes the Elizabeth line and includes inflation (reasonable figure btw), it's more or less 100% in exact figures but obviously it's not when you take inflation etc into account along with the effect of industrial action.

Further growth is needed, over the coming year there maybe further recovery but it is now over to the TOCs to have initiatives to boost passenger numbers, particularly leasure travel and even commuting where they can compete with the car. Take locally to me Norwich/Ipswich to Cambridge could become a commuter route where previously it hasn't been.

 

[MotCO]

I commuted into Waterloo for over 20 years, late July and August were always significantly quieter (during school holidays)

First 3 weeks of September were roughly normal, but clearly those not tied to school holidays often took holidays then.

Would be very busy from end September until about first week of December (except school half term week last week in October).

From second week of December rush hour would always quieten down, as many would travel in later during Christmas party season.

So Sept, Oct not busiest, November always was as hardly anyone takes holidays in November.

Now live nearer Bath and much less of a rush hour, more even throughout the whole daytime, but people still forced to stand on many trains. I'm told by neighbours etc that trains are generally lot busier now locally than few years ago, even though we are stuck with 31+ year old diesel trains with lack of capacity.

In my view London commuting has fallen, regional commuting might be busier.

My experience of commuting into London up to about 2007 was broadly similar but with less noticeable variations. My summary would be:

• Early September to just before Christmas: everyone had had their annual holidays and everyone was back at work. Half term a bit quieter.
• Christmas period: people starting to ease off for Christmas, plus evening rush thinning out due to office parties etc.
• January to Easter: took a little while to get back after Christmas, then people went off for their skiing holidays
• Easter to Summer: more people going away, so less busy than September to Christmas.
• School holidays: far fewer people commuting.

No idea what it is like now!

 

[Krokodil]

Passsenger numbers may be up but revenue is only at 70% of pre COVID levels - that's the number that the Government are looking at, and currently pumping hundreds of millions of £ in to make up the deficit.

Based on data that is six months old. Even if it still applies, why hasn't revenue risen with passenger numbers?

Some possible answers:

- People are taking advantage of the loopholes in the complex ticketing system (both legitimate loopholes and those that are fraudulent) to pay less.
- Anytime tickets are grossly overpriced on many routes and people would rather travel on Off Peak trains, which are often busier than peak ones.
- Unreliability of services such as TPE and Avanti meant that passengers are getting their money back more often. Perhaps the government shouldn't have swung a wrecking ball through industrial harmony.

 

[YorksLad12]

Can guarantee that the 0811 Leeds-Sheffield will be heaving come September when the college kids go back. Some start from York, all get off at Wakefield. Why the Leeds lot don't wait four extra minutes and get the 0815 LNER service, I knoweth not. Given that we've been getting a single four-car unit on that service (occasionally 5, some weeks we get 8, there's no discernable pattern) I might have to sharpen my elbows over the next week or so

 

[Purple Train]

Traveling up to Scotland from the west country for the bank holiday weekend plus a bit more, and despite it being the day after a strike and warnings plastered all over every ticketing site going my 5-car voyager is rammed full to standing and is borderline dangerously full. Good thing they’re not binning off some 7 coach trains with no replacement lined up! The capacity along the Exeter-Bristol route I regularly use is pitiful and only getting worse.

The railways are being used, and in good numbers, but no one seems happy about doing so. The passenger experience is shocking and the value is awful. It’s a great opportunity to establish rail as the norm and as a comfortable eco-friendly means of travel, and the government have absolutely no interest in taking the chance (as no government has for decades).

Indeed, XC is much busier than it was pre-pandemic - and obviously capacity issues are non-existent... as long as people are happy with sitting in the luggage hold (old shop area) of a single 220 on a Paignton-Manchester Piccadilly at the end of the holidays. Not as if anything will happen... perfectly good trains will get pensioned off before their sell-by date for trivial reasons rather than cascaded, presumably because saving the cost of a repaint is preferable to the saving from buying new trains.

The current railway is not "can-do". But it'll take at least one change of government, if not more, a change to the system, and several more years of being squashed into a sentient pancake before any form of change may, just may, trickle into sensible thinking and capacity increases without breaking the bank or stretching our already-extortionate fares.

 

[Master29]

Given the peak trains are fairly busy at the moment while a number of people are on holiday, I've been thinking commuting September/ October times will be packed Tuesday/Wednesday/Thurs as I expect another push from employers to get people back in the offices at least 2 days a week.

Is anyone else noticing trains are pretty busy at the moment

Seriously, Are that many people still trotting out the Working from home line after 2 years?

Certainly makes it harder to justify cutting services/capacity.

Might emphasise the need to raise efficiencies to deal with the increased numbers effectively. May also embolden the government to believe that their decision not to respond to strikes is the right one as well. In that sense care should be taken linking numbers to either side of the ongoing strike debate.

This exactly.

Yes, we've heard the Government's excuses many times.

Took the words out of my mouth

I had to go on a 0700 ish Tonbridge to London Bridge service last Tuesday for a hospital appointment. Summer holidays were always a quieter time but a 12 car would have generally been full by Sevenoaks. Last week the station car park had 15 cars in the 300 spaces, the reduced to 8 car train was maybe 15% full on leaving Sevenoaks.
Anecdotal I know but those that think income is back to pre pandemic levels are kidding themselves.
Pre-pandemic by fares income Southeastern was a bigger TOC than LNER. GTR was roughly the same size as LNER + Avanti + half of GWR.

What the hell have these people been doing the last 2 years when everyone else has gone back to work. This can't all be "working from home"

Traveling up to Scotland from the west country for the bank holiday weekend plus a bit more, and despite it being the day after a strike and warnings plastered all over every ticketing site going my 5-car voyager is rammed full to standing and is borderline dangerously full. Good thing they’re not binning off some 7 coach trains with no replacement lined up! The capacity along the Exeter-Bristol route I regularly use is pitiful and only getting worse.

The railways are being used, and in good numbers, but no one seems happy about doing so. The passenger experience is shocking and the value is awful. It’s a great opportunity to establish rail as the norm and as a comfortable eco-friendly means of travel, and the government have absolutely no interest in taking the chance (as no government has for decades).

Don't worry, so long as the work shy south east is used as a justification, the rest of us can all wollow.

 

[irish_rail]

Indeed, XC is much busier than it was pre-pandemic - and obviously capacity issues are non-existent... as long as people are happy with sitting in the luggage hold (old shop area) of a single 220 on a Paignton-Manchester Piccadilly at the end of the holidays. Not as if anything will happen... perfectly good trains will get pensioned off before their sell-by date for trivial reasons rather than cascaded, presumably because saving the cost of a repaint is preferable to the saving from buying new trains.

The current railway is not "can-do". But it'll take at least one change of government, if not more, a change to the system, and several more years of being squashed into a sentient pancake before any form of change may, just may, trickle into sensible thinking and capacity increases without breaking the bank or stretching our already-extortionate fares.

Agree. We need to look again at where the admittedly smaller pot of money is being spent now. Focus on the likes of XC and GWR Intercity journies where passenger numbers are up, and maybe worry less about investment in other areas that are still in decline.

 

[Krokodil]

And it certainly is a smaller pot of money. The rail budget is being cut in real terms.

 

[ThameslinkUser]

Anytime tickets are grossly overpriced on many routes and people would rather travel on Off Peak trains, which are often busier than peak ones.

Or are off-peak tickets grossly underpriced?

 

[JonathanH]

Indeed, XC is much busier than it was pre-pandemic - and obviously capacity issues are non-existent... as long as people are happy with sitting in the luggage hold (old shop area) of a single 220 on a Paignton-Manchester Piccadilly at the end of the holidays.

Is that true at all times of the day on all days of the week. It would be great for CrossCountry to one day have a capacity upgrade, but is it genuinely busier than it was in 2019 at an overall level?

Seriously, Are that many people still trotting out the Working from home line after 2 years?

There is clear evidence that office workers continue to work from home, not every day but in many cases on more days than they go to their offices.

Businesses have also cut working space to reflect this, just as train operators have reduced their services.

What the hell have these people been doing the last 2 years when everyone else has gone back to work. This can't all be "working from home"

It is. The biggest group of people who continue to work from home are those with the longest commutes who used to be the most lucrative of the commuters on the railway. (They are working, even if it isn't in an office.)

 

[Krokodil]

Or are off-peak tickets grossly underpriced?

They most certainly are not. In many cases they're overpriced too, remember that they've still risen above inflation.

 

[Ianigsy]

Is that true at all times of the day on all days of the week. It would be great for CrossCountry to one day have a capacity upgrade, but is it genuinely busier than it was in 2019 at an overall level?


There is clear evidence that office workers continue to work from home, not every day but in many cases on more days than they go to their offices.

Businesses have also cut working space to reflect this, just as train operators have reduced their services.


It is. The biggest group of people who continue to work from home are those with the longest commutes who used to be the most lucrative of the commuters on the railway. (They are working, even if it isn't in an office.)

And the longer your commute, the higher the likelihood that you’re in a position to tell people you’re working from home rather than asking.

As regards off-peak tickets being overpriced, it’s hard to say what the right price is in a context of Leeds-Scarborough or Newcastle-Berwick being possible for £2 by bus if time isn’t an issue.

 

[dk1]

Much of Europe seems to be coping with changing travel patterns. Why are the UK government making such a song & dance about it?

 

[Krokodil]

Much of Europe seems to be coping with changing travel patterns. Why are the UK government making such a song & dance about it?

Because while several European governments have recognised the need for modal shift as climate change threatens and have brought in various unlimited travel offers, this one swans about in helicopters.