Should Grand Central suspend their service?

[Bletchleyite]

With another 180 having apparently caught fire (I can't find the thread or I'd link it here) GC are going to be even tighter on stock than before, and the service is going to be seriously disrupted with the timetable on sale being more than a little bit dishonest, as there's no way they're going to be able to run it all unless they perhaps reduced to a single round trip per day, would it be better, do we think, if they just withdrew service temporarily, refunded all tickets and concentrated on getting 221s into service before restarting?

That would seem to make sense to me. At the moment they're selling trains they have no hope of running, and I don't think that's an appropriate business practice.

 

[Iskra]

Operationally, what you suggest is sensible. However, for cash flow it’s incredibly problematic. Are they still run by Arriva? Would they stand the significant loss this caused? It might be cheaper just to close GC down, although I’m not personally advocating that; many services that get suspended never seem to return.

When a 180 combusts, who picks up the cost- GC or the leasing company?

 

[swt_passenger]

With another 180 having apparently caught fire (I can't find the thread or I'd link it here) GC are going to be even tighter on stock than before, and the service is going to be seriously disrupted with the timetable on sale being more than a little bit dishonest, as there's no way they're going to be able to run it all unless they perhaps reduced to a single round trip per day, would it be better, do we think, if they just withdrew service temporarily, refunded all tickets and concentrated on getting 221s into service before restarting?

That would seem to make sense to me. At the moment they're selling trains they have no hope of running, and I don't think that's an appropriate business practice.

The post you want is here, I think?

Class 221 for Grand Central

RTT has two paths today (a return trip to London) with 221143 allocated - however I would imagine there is no guarantee it will run, and if it does if it will be in passenger service or not. https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:C20811/2023-08-11/detailed#allox_id=0...

www.railforums.co.uk

But haven’t they have already got a 221 into service, and I think also an ex-EMR 180? It’s hard to keep up, there’s so many threads.

 

[Energy]

Yes, they have the 221s in service already and at least 1 of the ex-HT/EMR 180s.

I'd imagine Arriva HQ will be having serious discussions about future stock. The 2 221s are only a 12 month lease intended to help while the 180s reliability is so bad.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The 221s aren't in passenger use yet are they? I'm fairly sure they aren't.

 

[pokemonsuper9]

The 221s aren't in passenger use yet are they? I'm fairly sure they aren't.

Confirmed running, in service and Voyager operated!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Aug 2023 ==

.

One has been

 

[swt_passenger]

The 221s aren't in passenger use yet are they? I'm fairly sure they aren't.

Was posted in the earlier thread last week, but here’s a pair of RTT schedules for today:

Realtime Trains | 1A63 1120 Wakefield Kirkgate to London Kings Cross | 14/08/2023

Real-time train running information for 1A63 1120 departure from Wakefield Kirkgate to London Kings Cross on 14/08/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Realtime Trains | 1D73 1456 London Kings Cross to Wakefield Kirkgate | 14/08/2023

Real-time train running information for 1D73 1456 departure from London Kings Cross to Wakefield Kirkgate on 14/08/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

 

[BJames]

But haven’t they have already got a 221 into service, and I think also an ex-EMR 180? It’s hard to keep up, there’s so many threads.

There do seem to be quite a few running concurrently! I was losing track

But indeed 180110 has gone over to GC and I believe that 180111 is in the pipeline for transfer (if it hasn't already) from comments elsewhere.

I agree with the notion of the OP. GC also aren't helping their image by simply telling people to buy an LNER ticket and refund their GC one if their services fail again - which they are, daily. How were they going to cope if 180110 and the 221 unit hadn't come over!?

 

[Clansman]

With another 180 having apparently caught fire (I can't find the thread or I'd link it here) GC are going to be even tighter on stock than before, and the service is going to be seriously disrupted with the timetable on sale being more than a little bit dishonest, as there's no way they're going to be able to run it all unless they perhaps reduced to a single round trip per day, would it be better, do we think, if they just withdrew service temporarily, refunded all tickets and concentrated on getting 221s into service before restarting?

That would seem to make sense to me. At the moment they're selling trains they have no hope of running, and I don't think that's an appropriate business practice.

I suspect that GC are stuck in the awkward middle ground where it is more feasable to incur a short-term hit if it means securing their long term future along the ECML.

Picture the scenario... GC pull out: demand is dispersed throughout LNER services minus a slight decline in patronage. They take a hit in immediate shut down and redundancy packages, then fast forward a few years, they re-apply to the ORR for track access rights once overall rail demand reaches pre-covid levels, only to find that their previous consumer base is now consolidated enough within LNER to be deemed "Primary Abstractive", and therefore denied in line with the current open access regulations.

So long as GC are profiting, or can atleast cross-subsidise by aborbing revenue from other Arriva business operations, it is in their business interests to continue to operate GC just as they have done for the past 16 years.

 

[skyhigh]

The 221s aren't in passenger use yet are they? I'm fairly sure they aren't.

They are available for service now and have been used.

In addition they have 2 of the ex-EMR 180s now.

Suggesting they should have their service suspended when they are taking demonstrable steps to improve their rolling stock situation.

 

[WAB]

They are available for service now and have been used.

In addition they have 2 of the ex-EMR 180s now.

Suggesting they should have their service suspended when they are taking demonstrable steps to improve their rolling stock situation.

I don't think this is quite what @Bletchleyite is saying. I think he was more suggesting that GC themselves suspend the service. I could certainly see the justification for pulling a diagram each day given the number of cancellations.

It remains to be seen whether the EMR 180s are reliable enough to make a difference to the number of cancellations, or whether a larger fleet will allow sufficient breathing space for reliability-increasing repairs (perhaps the 180s are beyond significant redemption?)

 

[STINT47]

222143 is due to do a Wakefield to London round trip today so they are at least trying to run what they can.

I don't think they should suspend services but contingency plans when trains don't run need to be better. Telling stranded passengers to buy a new ticket with another operator or wait hours for the next service isn't good enough.

In the long run why not put an order in for some 80x bi modals?

 

[RobShipway]

222143 is due to do a Wakefield to London round trip today so they are at least trying to run what they can.

I don't think they should suspend services but contingency plans when trains don't run need to be better. Telling stranded passengers to buy a new ticket with another operator or wait hours for the next service isn't good enough.

In the long run why not put an order in for some 80x bi modals?

Even if they put in an order for some 80x bi-modes, they would be lucky if they received them by 2026, by which time Hitachi are probably working on parts for the HS2 trains. Until 2026, they have to be able to be running a service whether it is with the 2 class 221's or the other class 180's in the fleet.

You also have to remember that later this year/early next year the remaining Avanti class 221's will be withdrawn from service, as they are replaced by class 805/807 units. Now, whether these class 221 units are going to Cross Country or possible maybe shared between Cross Country and Great Central who knows. Both are subsidiary's of Arriva UK Trains.

 

[Bletchleyite]

My point surrounds that for the past few weeks they have basically been false advertising.

A seriously cut emergency timetable might do rather than full withdrawal. The 221s are further along than I thought so maybe that.

 

[daodao]

A seriously cut emergency timetable might do rather than full withdrawal

That is the best interim solution, as it is with other operators (including EMR/Northern/TPE/TfW) with major staff shortages, or problematic rolling stock (all the current loco-hauled passenger trains, HSTs of all varieties, dmu classes 175/180, electric to battery/diesel emu conversions such as classes 230/769).

 

[yorksrob]

I found them very useful on a strike day recently when I had to get back from a family funeral and they were the only service to my neck of the woods left running. So even with ropey 180's (which worked fine when I needed it) I wouldn't suspend them.

The buffet was reasonably well priced as well.

 

[DarloRich]

Sensible thing to do:

• Contract with a loco, staff and stock provider and get some proper non combustible trains running.
• Run a service this can deliver ( maybe focus on Sunderland and
• Push class 180's into sea
• Obtain off lease HST with slidy doors ASAP
• Train staff ASAP
• Run sensible service
• Obtain new bi mode trains

None of this will happen, of course, so things will just stagger on until total collapse happens.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I’d be on the phone to Rail Charter Services to enquire about one of their HST sets in the short term. It’s what Hull Trains had to do way back when.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

This idea of suspending all services because some services are cancelled is frankly absurd. It's like McDonald's closing their whole restaurant estate because some of the McFlurry machines are broken.

 

[RobShipway]

This idea of suspending all services because some services are cancelled is frankly absurd. It's like McDonald's closing their whole restaurant estate because some of the McFlurry machines are broken.

In fairness to @Bletchleyite when they made the original post, they did not realise how far Grand Central had come with using class 221 units.

 

[Bantamzen]

This idea of suspending all services because some services are cancelled is frankly absurd. It's like McDonald's closing their whole restaurant estate because some of the McFlurry machines are broken.

Crikey that would be practically every day then....

The problem with the idea of immediately suspending services or even dropping back to emergency timetables at the first sign of trouble is that is risks rapidly becomes and easy get-out for management to protect performance tables. Only in the absolutely most extreme circumstances should anything like this be considered, the rest of the time its up to the operators to get their fingers out and get it sorted. In this case getting those two, and perhaps more 221s out onto the full routes picking up revenue. For an operator like GC, losing money isn't really an option and if they don't move at quicker as pace as possible that's what will happen.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think it would be very hard to argue, absent the 221s (quite impressed how quickly they were brought into service), that GC's position wasn't extreme.

 

[Bantamzen]

Not as extreme as effective calling the service off and dumping paying punters onto LNER, perhaps never to be seen again.

 

[Energy]

Hull Trains had a similar situation a few years ago, they hired in a HST set, and other parts of the business trained drivers up quickly. GC have done the same but with 221s.

The difference with Hull Trains is that they had new stock on order...

 

[61653 HTAFC]

I think it would be very hard to argue, absent the 221s (quite impressed how quickly they were brought into service), that GC's position wasn't extreme.

I agree with the problem, I just disagree with your suggested solution. I've made a couple of trips with Grand Central (both shorter trips within West Yorkshire) in the last few weeks, and both times loadings seemed pretty healthy with only a few free seats available- so cancelling everything would be using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.

I'm not sure of the wisdom of acquiring the spare 180s given their issues, though as they were unused Arriva may have got a good deal on them. The 221s ought to go to XC really, but as a franchised operator they don't have the flexibility with finances that an OA operator has.

 

[Chester1]

Even if they put in an order for some 80x bi-modes, they would be lucky if they received them by 2026, by which time Hitachi are probably working on parts for the HS2 trains. Until 2026, they have to be able to be running a service whether it is with the 2 class 221's or the other class 180's in the fleet.

You also have to remember that later this year/early next year the remaining Avanti class 221's will be withdrawn from service, as they are replaced by class 805/807 units. Now, whether these class 221 units are going to Cross Country or possible maybe shared between Cross Country and Great Central who knows. Both are subsidiary's of Arriva UK Trains.

Arriva will prioritise Grand Central over CrossCountry because it doesn't cost them if the latter is short of rolling stock. The ROSCO will sign with Grand Central if they ask for a long lease of 221s and DfT dither on CrossCountry rolling stock. I suspect if CrossCountry get more stock it will be Meridians not Voyagers because it allows DfT to kick the can down the road a bit longer.

A fleet of 10 x 221s would seem like the obvious choice unless Grand Central soldier on until bi modes can arrive.

 

[Energy]

Arriva will prioritise Grand Central over CrossCountry because it doesn't cost them if the latter is short of rolling stock. The ROSCO will sign with Grand Central if they ask for a long lease of 221s and DfT dither on CrossCountry rolling stock. I suspect if CrossCountry get more stock it will be Meridians not Voyagers because it allows DfT to kick the can down the road a bit longer.

The DfT sign-off on any rolling stock changes at XC and Arriva gets paid a management fee for XC for following the DfT's orders.

A fleet of 10 x 221s would seem like the obvious choice unless Grand Central soldier on until bi modes can arrive.

Grand Central's first concern will be their track access agreement expiring in December 2026. Once they've got an extension they can look into new stock.

Bradford only has ~30 miles off wires and Sunderland ~40 miles. Both could be done roundtrip by a battery EMU so a battery 397 would be a possibility.

 

[skyhigh]

My point surrounds that for the past few weeks they have basically been false advertising.

A seriously cut emergency timetable might do rather than full withdrawal.

But... why? They have made arrangements to bring a total of 4 extra sets into use imminently. As far as I'm aware the set made up of various knackered vehicles has also come back from Ilford. Today the only cancellations have been on a single return Bradford trip - and ticket acceptance was arranged with LNER and Northern for both legs. Over the last seven days from a quick look the cancellations have either been nothing or 1 return trip.

A seriously reduced emergency timetable will just cut revenue (which will harm the viability of replacement stock) and push capacity issues onto LNER when it's generally being managed reasonably well.

I could understand reducing the timetable by removing a single unit diagram temporarily until the new sets come online, but a "seriously cut" emergency timetable seems a gross overreaction.

 

[Trainbike46]

[*]Push class 180's into sea

Oi, I'll have you know the 180s could make perfectly good razor blades and tin cans if sent to Newport

 

[class397tpe]

Hull Trains had a similar situation a few years ago, they hired in a HST set, and other parts of the business trained drivers up quickly. GC have done the same but with 221s.

The difference with Hull Trains is that they had new stock on order...

Maybe Grand Central could also take the crosscountry HSTs too... They've operated HST before... Maybe with 12 180s, 2 221s and 5 HSTs they'll finally have enough stock to run their services :P