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Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

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The Ham

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Whilst there's been an increase in the numbers coming here, that started some time ago (2016), I don't know how long it takes to train someone, however given a lot of staff these days will change jobs within 5 years you'd hope that the training shouldn't take more than 9 months (at least to be of use for 50% of cases).

Whilst recruiting start is always going to take time, between May 2017 (the date of the change to the removal of the 6 month target) and December 2019 (before COVID restrictions) should have been enough to have seen staff numbers increase. Early 2020 would have allowed a small period of catch-up.

Would there still be a backlog, almost certainly, however would it be costing us £6 million a day in hotels? Again almost certainly not.
 
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DynamicSpirit

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Surely the backlog is the crisis. It wouldn't matter how many claims were made if they were being processed quickly. There wouldn't be masses of people who need to be housed - they would either have their claim granted and able to work and support themselves, or they would have been deported.

You don't think the sudden growth of an industry in which smugglers charge tens of thousands of people a year camping in France to stick them in small boats to cross the English Channel, with the inevitability of many of them drowning en route, itself amounts to a crisis? I would say that aspect is also a crisis, no matter how quickly the claims are processed once the survivors reach the UK. And I don't see how you can reasonably blame the Tories for that having happened.
 

ainsworth74

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And I don't see how you can reasonably blame the Tories for that having happened.
If I wish to claim asylum in the UK and I am not an Afghan (though that element is now questionable considering six Afghanis drowned this weekend), Ukrainian, a Hong Kong national or a close family member of someone who already has refugee status in the UK, how do I do so?
 

Gloster

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There is no quick answer, but training and retaining permanent staff, rather than the agency ones that are already filling many posts, would allow them to get a grip on the situation after a while. However, the Conservatives seem to have once again adopted the attitude that if there is a risk that they might train staff up who will be surplus after a few years, it is better to do nothing than waste the money invested in the staff (*). Of course, they don’t look at the way that not having the staff produces other costs many times the amount they save.

There is also the point that properly trained permanent staff are much more likely to be able to make the correct and humane judgement on each case. Frequently shifting agency staff, even if they do their best, are more likely to get it wrong.

* - Labour have done this as well, but not usually to such an extent.
 

DynamicSpirit

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If I wish to claim asylum in the UK and I am not an Afghan (though that element is now questionable considering six Afghanis drowned this weekend), Ukrainian, a Hong Kong national or a close family member of someone who already has refugee status in the UK, how do I do so?

Right, and I agree with you that, in principle, the fact that there is no easy way to claim asylum in the UK is a problem and that results in terrible suffering that we really should be trying to prevent. But... there must be hundreds of millions of people across the World who are being persecuted and would have very good grounds to claim if they were able to do so. I have yet to see any serious suggestion for how you could reasonably make it easy for people who are being persecuted to claim asylum in the UK that wouldn't be likely to result in our suddenly being faced with, maybe millions of legitimate claims a year - which we could not possibly accommodate (as well as potentially millions more people who don't really have legitimate claims but thought they'd try their luck). That's the dilemma which few of the Government's critics seem to recognise.
 

Yew

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You don't think the sudden growth of an industry in which smugglers charge tens of thousands of people a year camping in France to stick them in small boats to cross the English Channel, with the inevitability of many of them drowning en route, itself amounts to a crisis? I would say that aspect is also a crisis, no matter how quickly the claims are processed once the survivors reach the UK. And I don't see how you can reasonably blame the Tories for that having happened.
Well if you're so concerned about smugglers and people drowning, surely you won't oppose improving the number of safe and legal routes for asylum seekers to come into the UK legally?
 

najaB

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Well if you're so concerned about smugglers and people drowning, surely you won't oppose improving the number of safe and legal routes for asylum seekers to come into the UK legally?
Or with us taking up the French offer to set up processing facilities in France, rather than waiting until they've made the crossing and shipping the people who survive off to Rwanda?
 

ainsworth74

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But... there must be hundreds of millions of people across the World who are being persecuted and would have very good grounds to claim if they were able to do so. I have yet to see any serious suggestion for how you could reasonably make it easy for people who are being persecuted to claim asylum in the UK that wouldn't be likely to result in our suddenly being faced with, maybe millions of legitimate claims a year - which we could not possibly accommodate (as well as potentially millions more people who don't really have legitimate claims but thought they'd try their luck). That's the dilemma which few of the Government's critics seem to recognise.
But is that actually likely? The overwhelming majority of asylum seekers stay close to home because, after all, they hope to return to their homes once the emergency passes. Obviously sometimes the issue will likely never subside. I dealt with an Iranian once who was a refugee in the UK due to their faith (Christian) and consequent risk to their life, it seems unlikely they'll be able to go home safely anytime soon sadly! Using an example closer to home the majority of Ukrainian refugees have been housed in Poland and surrounding countries. They didn't try and come to the UK even thought here was a safe and legal (if somewhat convoluted) route for them to do so. I just don't buy this "if we make a safe route then hundreds of millions will seek asylum here!". I just sounds silly to me.

Personally I'd set up a processing facility in Calais (which will end the tragedies in the Channel but doesn't actually make it all that much easier as they've still got to get to Calais) and increase the resource available for processing. We should be processing claims within month or two of the application. I'd also put more resource into the appeals process to ensure that appeals are heard similarly quickly. The longest someone should be in processing is a few months, less than six at the outside. And as soon as they've been turned down they should be deported immediately. Our asylum system should be accessible without having to cross the Channel and it should be make robust and fair decisions swiftly with the appeal system itself being available to ensure that those decisions were correct also operating swiftly.

The present system is an outrage and fails everyone.
 

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Frankly, if one were a cynic (me, cynical!) you would get the feeling that as losing control of the system has coincided with the Conservatives losing control of everything else, including their own party, they see the immigration problems as the only thing that they might be able to play as a trump card in the next election. They are planning their policy, not to solve the problem, which, to be fair, probably can’t be anywhere near solved in this parliament, but to keep it as a festering sore to use as an election vote-grabber. Legionella Braverman, who is ultimately responsible, just does not seen to be making any effort to produce any long-term strategy, or even any strategy at all, but instead seems to be using it as part of her plan to be the next, or possibly next-but-one leader of the Conservatives, by producing harsh policies that are likely to be popular with a fair proportion of those who elect the Conservative leader, even if the policies have no effect on the problem, or even a negative one.
 
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ainsworth74

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Frankly, if one were a cynic (me, cynical!) you would get the feeling that as losing control of the system has coincided with the Conservatives losing control of everything else, including their own party, they see the immigration problems as the only thing that they might be able to play as trump card in the next election. They are planning their policy, not to solve the problem, which, to be fair, probably can’t be anywhere near solved in this parliament, but to keep it as a festering sore to use as an election vote-grabber. Legionella Braverman, who is ultimately responsible, just does not seen to be making any effort to produce any long-term strategy, or even any strategy at all, but instead seems to be using it as part of her plan to be the next, or possibly next-biut-one leader of the Conservatives, by producing harsh policies that are likely to be popular with a fair proportion of those who elect the Conservatove, even if the policies have no effect on the problem, or even a negative one.
I think that's to mistake incompetence for strategy. The likes of Braverman I think are simply incapable of meeting the requirements of the post that they've been promoted into when the Home Office is, frankly, utterly dysfunctional (can anyone think of a part of the Home Office that isn't too some degree failing?) but that incompetence is then flavoured with a sprig of ideology and a dash of ambition to create what we see currently emanating from the Home Office. I suspect that they'd much rather have control of the problem, it makes it easier for their friends in the media to run scare stories about how Labour/SNP/Lib Dems/insert political enemy here would throw open the doors and let all sorts of scary people into the country. That argument is somewhat harder to make when the immigration system is in slow motion collapse.
 

DynamicSpirit

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But is that actually likely? The overwhelming majority of asylum seekers stay close to home because, after all, they hope to return to their homes once the emergency passes.

I would expect that, in most cases, that's largely because the asylum seekers have no easy means to travel further from their homes. You also have to remember that many of the countries adjoining conflict areas will tend to house asylum seekers in refugee camps, offering them some safety but also a very unpleasant and restricted life: They don't give them passports and integrate them into society in the way that the UK/most EU countries do. If you're in a refugee camp, it's hardly surprising that you'll want to return home as soon as the crisis has passed. On the other hand, the impression I have is that very few people who have been given asylum in the UK subsequently choose to return home - which is also hardly surprising when the UK will typically offer a much better life than in their home countries.

Using an example closer to home the majority of Ukrainian refugees have been housed in Poland and surrounding countries. They didn't try and come to the UK even thought here was a safe and legal (if somewhat convoluted) route for them to do so.

Ukraine is arguably a somewhat special case because (a) Ukrainians can easily get asylum almost anywhere in the EU and there's no particular advantage in claiming asylum in the UK as opposed to other EU countries, (b) Ukraine is much more prosperous than most countries that generate refugees - so there's less economic incentive to leave Ukraine permanently, and (c) the military support the West is giving to Ukraine gave additional hope that the crisis there would be over within a reasonable time.

I just don't buy this "if we make a safe route then hundreds of millions will seek asylum here!". I just sounds silly to me.

It doesn't sound at all silly to me. Just considering human nature, it looks to me like something that will inevitably happen if we follow what many on the left are asking for and establish places across the World where anyone can claim asylum in the UK in order to prevent small boat crossings. (Say for example you're one of the approx. 1 million Rohingyan refugees who's fled to Bangladesh. Are you really going to choose to sit languishing and suffering a pretty awful life in a local refugee camp if you know that a bus ride to the British High Commission in Dhaka can get you and all your family and friends asylum and a new life in the UK?)

Personally I'd set up a processing facility in Calais (which will end the tragedies in the Channel but doesn't actually make it all that much easier as they've still got to get to Calais)

But the problem with that is that it increases the incentive for people to cross the Mediterranean on small boats, since they now know that they only need to get to Calais in order to claim asylum in the UK - and making one crossing is still easier than making two. To that extent, you haven't solved the small-boat-crossing problem: You've just transferred it from the English Channel to the Mediterranean. And you also still have the ethical problems that (1) the people you're helping are the ones who have been able to pay people smugglers and those aren't necessarily the people who needed the help the most, and (2) the people you are helping are the ones who've already reached a safe country (France, probably crossing other safe countries en route) and have specifically chosen not to claim asylum in any of those safe countries: That alone calls into question whether they are the people you should be prioritising to help - given that we don't have unlimited capacity to take in refugees.
 

Gloster

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Ukraine is arguably a somewhat special case because (a) Ukrainians can easily get asylum almost anywhere in the EU and there's no particular advantage in claiming asylum in the UK as opposed to other EU countries, (b) Ukraine is much more prosperous than most countries that generate refugees - so there's less economic incentive to leave Ukraine permanently, and (c) the military support the West is giving to Ukraine gave additional hope that the crisis there would be over within a reasonable time.

…and they are white.
 

edwin_m

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They are planning their policy, not to solve the problem, which, to be fair, probably can’t be anywhere near solved in this parliament, but to keep it as a festering sore to use as an election vote-grabber. Legionella Braverman, who is ultimately responsible, just does not seen to be making any effort to produce any long-term strategy, or even any strategy at all, but instead seems to be using it as part of her plan to be the next, or possibly next-but-one leader of the Conservatives, by producing harsh policies that are likely to be popular with a fair proportion of those who elect the Conservative leader, even if the policies have no effect on the problem, or even a negative one.
I'm not sure it's even effective at doing that. The voters for whom this is important enough to define who they vote for are likely to go to Reform UK, who are free to suggest even more extreme solutions without the constraint of possibly ending up in power and having to implement them. Meanwhile any of the much larger group of centrist voters who may still be considering voting Tory are much more likely to be discouraged from doing so by policies such as this one.
 

najaB

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On the other hand, the impression I have is that very few people who have been given asylum in the UK subsequently choose to return home - which is also hardly surprising when the UK will typically offer a much better life than in their home countries.
That's not entirely true. Asylum isn't granted on an open-ended basis, it's usually for five years. After that five years, the person can either start the process to apply for citizenship or will be required to leave the country. The reason that many people choose to remain in the UK isn't just because the UK "offers a much better life than in their home countries" but because they have built a life here and are productive members of society. That said, if it is now safe to do so, many do choose to return home.
It doesn't sound at all silly to me. Just considering human nature, it looks to me like something that will inevitably happen if we follow what many on the left are asking for and establish places across the World where anyone can claim asylum in the UK in order to prevent small boat crossings.
There is a less than one to one correspondence between asylum claims and permission to stay being granted.
 

Ediswan

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Simple example: £1.6 billion over two years to house 1,500 asylum seekers on overcrowded barges. Value for money? Compassionate treatment?
1500 beds for two years works out at roughly 1.1 million nights. Paying £1.6 billion for that works out at just shy of £1500 per night. I know governmant procurement has a reputation for paying high prices for commercial services, but even then the price for this seems high.
 

takno

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1500 beds for two years works out at roughly 1.1 million nights. Paying £1.6 billion for that works out at just shy of £1500 per night. I know governmant procurement has a reputation for paying high prices for commercial services, but even then the price for this seems high.
It definitely seems like you could get a block booking for well under 1/10th the price at some really quite reasonable hotels. I'm trying to work out why there isn't more conversation about this tbh. I know we've got used to the government wasting literally billions at a time over Covid, but if the 1.6bn figure is even remotely accurate then a lot of people should be making a prolonged trip to prison, since it's a long way beyond mere waste.
 

JamesT

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1500 beds for two years works out at roughly 1.1 million nights. Paying £1.6 billion for that works out at just shy of £1500 per night. I know governmant procurement has a reputation for paying high prices for commercial services, but even then the price for this seems high.
Is that all the £1.6bn is for? https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/society/960346/how-much-does-it-cost-the-uk-to-house-asylum-seekers mentions the contract with CTM:
The two-year deal will cover the Bibby Stockholm and two additional vessels announced by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak earlier this month, “as well as bridging accommodation and travel services”, the Home Office told the news site.
Later on it states it would cost around £20k per night to house the 500 on the Bibby Stockholm, which is more like £400/each.

It definitely seems like you could get a block booking for well under 1/10th the price at some really quite reasonable hotels. I'm trying to work out why there isn't more conversation about this tbh. I know we've got used to the government wasting literally billions at a time over Covid, but if the 1.6bn figure is even remotely accurate then a lot of people should be making a prolonged trip to prison, since it's a long way beyond mere waste.
As before, I do wonder if this is comparing apples with apples. There's more to housing asylum seekers than just a room for the night.

If it's costing £5.6m/day to house 45,500 it does seem odd to be paying over the odds. Unless most of those housed are already in cheap accommodation, and the marginal cost for the last tranche is even more expensive than the barges.
 

takno

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Is that all the £1.6bn is for? https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/society/960346/how-much-does-it-cost-the-uk-to-house-asylum-seekers mentions the contract with CTM:

Later on it states it would cost around £20k per night to house the 500 on the Bibby Stockholm, which is more like £400/each.


As before, I do wonder if this is comparing apples with apples. There's more to housing asylum seekers than just a room for the night.

If it's costing £5.6m/day to house 45,500 it does seem odd to be paying over the odds. Unless most of those housed are already in cheap accommodation, and the marginal cost for the last tranche is even more expensive than the barges.
Even if it's comparing apples with avocados it's going to struggle to wash its face financially. I fully understand that the total daily cost of keeping people while they enjoy our bureaucratic inadequacies is more than just the cost of accommodation, but we are generally talking about a group without complex health problems where children are relatively under-represented, and we aren't exactly providing a significant budget for non-essentials.
 

Enthusiast

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Surely the backlog is the crisis. It wouldn't matter how many claims were made if they were being processed quickly. There wouldn't be masses of people who need to be housed - they would either have their claim granted and able to work and support themselves, or they would have been deported.
No the backlog is not the crisis. The crisis is the enormous numbers of people who are arriving daily in small boats, all of whom have to be accommodated, fed and watered. At the current rate of arrivals, just to keep the backlog level (at about 135,000 or thereabouts), claims will have to be decided at the rate of 135 every working day. To clear the backlog in six months, an additional 1,000 cases will have to be determined each day. This does not allow any extra time for appeals, etc. The Home Office (and the judicial system) is clearly not resourced to handle this volume of work and nor should it be.
If I wish to claim asylum in the UK and I am not an Afghan (though that element is now questionable considering six Afghanis drowned this weekend), Ukrainian, a Hong Kong national or a close family member of someone who already has refugee status in the UK, how do I do so?
Plainly and simply, you don't as there is no need for you to do so. The recipient nations have lost sight of the principle of the asylum system. It was designed so that people facing threats to their safety could seek temporary shelter in a nearby country until it was safe for them to return home. It was not designed as a method to simply roam the world until you reach the destination of your choosing to make a new life.

Many African and Asian nations are facing an exodus of their young men (and asylum seekers who turn up in rubber boats are predominantly young men) who have left behind their elderly relatives, wives, girlfriends, sisters and children. Those remaining have to deal with the problems their country faces – which presumably forced the young men to flee for their lives - without them. That indicates to me that perhaps, in many places, things are not quite so bad as are made out.

The influx to this country (both in conventional migration and what I term unconventional – i.e. arriving without leave) is unsustainable. Under the current asylum arrangements there is simply no limit to the number of people who arrive here without leave and who must be accommodated. There will have to come a time, hopefully sooner rather than later, when Western European nations (predominantly the target destination of those leaving Africa and Asia) will have to say that, despite their obligations under the 1951 treaty, they can no longer accommodate any more. I would argue that point has already been reached in the UK and that this country, along with many others, will have to press for either a drastic change to the treaty or withdraw as signatories to it.

Simply saying “they have the right to come here” does not overcome the many problems their arrival causes and in pure practical and financial terms, it cannot be sustained. This is not particularly a Tory/Labour thing. I doubt a Labour government would handle things any differently (apart from perhaps declaring a virtual amnesty – i.e. not considering asylum claims properly - for those already here). One thing's for sure - messing about with three or four barges which might, if ever sorted out properly, accommodate 500 migrants each is peeing in the wind when more than that number are arriving every day that the weather is agreeable in the Straits of Dover.
 

Falcon1200

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Personally I'd set up a processing facility in Calais (which will end the tragedies in the Channel but doesn't actually make it all that much easier as they've still got to get to Calais)

But would the French want or allow that, and would it not simply lead to even more people travelling through Europe to get to Calais; Some of whom would already have risked their lives crossing the Mediterranean? It should not be forgotten that the English Channel is not the only sea where people smugglers take advantage of desperate migrants with no regard to their safety, and the UK is not the only country struggling to deal with the issue.

Compassionate treatment?

Is rescuing people and providing them with accommodation, food, healthcare and more, regardless of whether they actually have any right to enter the UK, not compassionate?
 

bspahh

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But would the French want or allow that, and would it not simply lead to even more people travelling through Europe to get to Calais;
This is a story from a couple of years ago. The French seemed keen. The fact that it happens suggests that its the UK government which wasn't interested.

https://www.france24.com/en/france/...pen-legal-migration-route-amid-channel-crisis says:
"Great Britain needs to open up a legal immigration route" because "at the moment anyone who wants to ask for asylum has no other choice but to cross the Channel," Darmanin said in an interview with the RMC/BFM media group.

French officials have already suggested that British immigration officials process asylum requests in northern France from migrants camped out around the major ports on France's coast.

Darmanin convened fellow ministers responsible for immigration from Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium on Sunday for talks about the Channel migrant crisis, four days after an unprecedented accident saw 27 people drown in the busy sea lane.

They met without Britain which was excluded after a row last week between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and French President Emmanuel Macron.

Darmanin again blamed Britain for the presence of thousands of migrants in northern France, alleging that more relaxed labour practices on the other side of the Channel were creating a "pull effect" tempting migrants across in hope of finding work.

Many migrants around Calais also say they want to travel to the UK because they speak some English already, or have family and friends in the country.

Around 26,000 people have sailed from France to England this year, leading to severe pressure on the UK government which had vowed to reduce migration after pushing through Britain's departure from the European Union.
 

Gloster

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The two-year contract for the Bibby Stockholm and two other barges (but not, as far as I can see, other accommodation) was apparently awarded to the Australian company Corporate Travel Management in February without competition: it is worth just under £1.6 billion (that is not a typo). The company has previously been criticised for failings when it ran Covid quarantine hotels and travel tests.

Sources: Marine Industry News and The London Economic.
 

The Ham

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Right, and I agree with you that, in principle, the fact that there is no easy way to claim asylum in the UK is a problem and that results in terrible suffering that we really should be trying to prevent. But... there must be hundreds of millions of people across the World who are being persecuted and would have very good grounds to claim if they were able to do so. I have yet to see any serious suggestion for how you could reasonably make it easy for people who are being persecuted to claim asylum in the UK that wouldn't be likely to result in our suddenly being faced with, maybe millions of legitimate claims a year - which we could not possibly accommodate (as well as potentially millions more people who don't really have legitimate claims but thought they'd try their luck). That's the dilemma which few of the Government's critics seem to recognise.

Maybe there needs to be a better system which isn't done by country, rather is done with all countries working together.

Anyone anywhere can claim asylum, their case is reviewed (with details like where family/ties exist) and a decision is made at to if they meet the requirements to be given asylum and a recommended country given. There would be agreements in place determining the numbers given access to a given country.

Monitoring would be in place to determine where is likely to create displaced people and the likely numbers.

Support would be given to house people locally to their home (i.e. a neighbouring country), however where possible there should be measures in place to allow them to work so the level of support could be reduced - i.e. they do jobs to improve conditions in the migrant camps they are staying in to reduce the cost of the facilities.

They would be expected to stay there (or some other safe country, if the nearby country was also a risk to them) whilst their application for asylum was processed. The cost of this would likely be significantly cheaper than housing them in the UK or other Western Country - even if the numbers were higher).

Reception countries could provide details of roles/industries where there's a shortage of staff and if people meet those positions the reception country could offer them a place of a suitable job could be found for them (potentially without having to go through the full asylum process). For example, if a doctor was escaping a regime and their English was good, then the UK could offer them access to NHS jobs rather than going through the full asylum process (cuts costs of having to process them as much, and fills a job which otherwise might not be filled for some time).

Yes you could find that you end up with more people who are displaced seeking asylum, however they could end up in any country, so the attractiveness of being sure of getting a Western Country would reduce. Now if it's due to (say) homophobia they're unlikely to end up in (say) an Arabic country, so there would be a certain amount of above average cases heading towards Western Countries for such cases. However they could be balanced by other cases going elsewhere.

There would be some countries who would like to have more people (for instance Canada is fairly keen on having now people living there), whilst others less so.

At least some of the people able to pay the people smugglers to get to the west could well fund some of their own costs (for example travel costs) if needed. To encourage that there could be like a student loan setup which added a "tax" once the individual earned over a certain amount to repay their travel costs. However, with there not being a need to be on a given flight block booking of commercial flights could be done as the bookings opened to get the best value air fare.

Even just at an EU or Commonwealth level there would likely be advantages to both the countries but also the people.
 

najaB

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Later on it states it would cost around £20k per night to house the 500 on the Bibby Stockholm, which is more like £400/each.
You can get a five-star hotel in central London for that kind of money. Just saying...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

You completely contradicted yourself in five sentences.
No the backlog is not the crisis.
Then go on to explain why the backlog is the crisis:
The crisis is the enormous numbers of people who are arriving daily in small boats, all of whom have to be accommodated, fed and watered. At the current rate of arrivals, just to keep the backlog level (at about 135,000 or thereabouts), claims will have to be decided at the rate of 135 every working day. To clear the backlog in six months, an additional 1,000 cases will have to be determined each day. This does not allow any extra time for appeals, etc. The Home Office (and the judicial system) is clearly not resourced to handle this volume of work and nor should it be.
 

Yew

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1500 beds for two years works out at roughly 1.1 million nights. Paying £1.6 billion for that works out at just shy of £1500 per night. I know governmant procurement has a reputation for paying high prices for commercial services, but even then the price for this seems high.
How much is a room at the Ritz per night?
 

Enthusiast

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You completely contradicted yourself in five sentences.

Then go on to explain why the backlog is the crisis:
I disagree. The backlog is not causing any additional problems. Those caught in it are already accommodated and whether their cases are decided or not, they will continue to be so. My point is that there are insufficient resources to cope with the current rate of arrivals and that is a problem. I mentioned the resources needed to clear the backlog for illustration only. Even if each case was to be determined quickly, many of those refused asylum will launch endless appeals and it is unlikely that any single case would be concluded within six months.

It is the entire principle of asylum that needs to be reassessed.
 
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