GWR stock shortage: potential solutions

[Topological]

There is a useful discussion of the options for GWR with EMU in the speculative discussions section: A GWR Intercity EMU?

IF the line was retimed to 110 then what would be the actual cost? Could an extra path be squeezed out of the line?

I recognise having trains limited to 110 is not ideal, but other routes seem to manage.

 

[class ep-09]

There is a useful discussion of the options for GWR with EMU in the speculative discussions section: A GWR Intercity EMU?

IF the line was retimed to 110 then what would be the actual cost? Could an extra path be squeezed out of the line?

I recognise having trains limited to 110 is not ideal, but other routes seem to manage.

After dropping Slough from stopping pattern , but running time remaining almost this same ( admittedly Oxfords / Cotswolds depart 2/3 minutes later at 23/53 versus 20/50 past each hour ) 110mph train can keep to the timetable between Padd and Reading , especially that 387’s have bit better acceleration than 800’s .

Between Reading and Oxford the running time still is as for HSTs / Turbo (22-25minutes) so again 110mph stock easily would keep up.
In fact doing 90mph from Reading to Didcot East is enough to keep the time as down Oxford / Cotswold trains slow down around Didcot East to let train on Up Main to go first before being crossed to Dn Relief ( and further to Didcot or Didcot Avoider ).

 

[JonathanH]

110mph train can keep to the timetable between Padd and Reading

25 minutes for a 387, 22-23 minutes for an IET. Basically removes the dwell time if one substitutes for the other. The 387 ride at 110mph is quite lively.

 

[Master29]

So why bring LNER in?

Don't make things up as you go along.

That is not going to happen, it would be a waste of public funds.

Why? Sounds a pretty good idea to me.

My interpretation is that the 802s on Cardiff to Penzance are a short term measure, should additional capacity be needed elsewhere they could be moved back and replaced by the new regional stock.

Based on what exactly? There isn't any new regional stock available.

Going by what @Clarence Yard has said above Hitachi are now meeting the required number of trains with shortforming being due to excused units (trains damaged while in GWR's possession) and action short of strike

That is a poor excuse of a service and a get out by Hitachi and the Daft for a botched contract and we are now seeing the results of this.

Hardly ‘taken for granted’. The Government has spend millions on upgrading the Dawlish sea wall, and reopening stations at Okehampton and Marsh Barton.

They didn't fix the Dawlish Sea wall out of love but necessity. Okehampton was already there so didn't need millions spent on it.

 

[Energy]

Why? Sounds a pretty good idea to me.

Completely replacing the 80Xs early would be a vast spend of money, which could be better spent on the infrastructure which causes the trains to get "bent" or on further electrification. The 800/802s are nowhere near perfect but they aren't Fyra (over in Netherlands) level of bad.

Based on what exactly? There isn't any new regional stock available.

Project Churchward has new regional stock planned for 150, 158, 165, 166 replacement after 2028. The IETs aren't a cheap solution for a regional route and it isn't unlikely that more capacity is needed on the mainline post 2028.

That is a poor excuse of a service and a get out by Hitachi and the Daft for a botched contract and we are now seeing the results of this.

The contract isn't brilliant, the DfT continuing to follow a maintenance plan for a timetable which was not implemented (or implementable) hasn't helped but GWR's planners have worked around that. Current issues are stock movements from action short of strike and the excused sets. The later can be solved by lower utilisation, ideally sets shouldn't be getting damaged in service but that isn't going to stop soon. The former will depend on the government.

 

[Master29]

Project Churchward has new regional stock planned for 150, 158, 165, 166 replacement after 2028. The IETs aren't a cheap solution for a regional route and it isn't unlikely that more capacity is needed on the mainline post 2028.

I'm not convinced of Project Churchward or the idea of battery trains being used in the South West although it would be a good idea. It sounds just the kind of thing that will end up cancelled.

 

[RPI]

I’m sure I once read Digby was the busiest unmanned station in the south west. May have passed that honour on now.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 6 Aug 2023 ==


Ironically, Okehampton was seen by government as the easiest way to demonstrate they were delivering on reopening railways. What an amazing success it has been though. Standing room only is not uncommon several times a week. When Okehampton Parkway (now going to be called something else) opens, 3-car trains will likely be required, but as this thread demonstrates, probably not available.

Whilst I agree Okehampton is a welcome success, I don't think I've ever seen an Okehampton train full and standing, even from Crediton to Exeter.

 

[uglymonkey]

I wonder how the future battery trains will cope with seawater at Dawlish?

 

[class26]

I'm not convinced of Project Churchward or the idea of battery trains being used in the South West although it would be a good idea. It sounds just the kind of thing that will end up cancelled.

Article in August`s Modern Railways says the submission will go to the DFT IMMINENTLY. It is for replacement stock for 150, 158 etc and is to use one type of train but with two configurations , ie one for the local branches and a second for the longer distance services ie Cardiff - Penzanze and Portsmouth. Mark Hopwood actually says that he struggles to be diplomatic" about the incomplete electrification, especially when foundations and some structures are in place. It says that the electrification of Chippenham to Bristol via Bath , Bristol Parkway to Bristol and Didcot to Oxford is paused and NOT cancelled suggesting that Cardiff to Portsmouth could work electrically if the Bath route was finished as it could run on eectric from Cardiff to Bathampton , battery to Redbridge then third rail to Portsmouth. Completing through to Oxford would enable 387`s to run this route freeing up more 800`s and it also suggests discontinuous electrification between Newton Abbot and Plymouth.
This is not rumour mill but the MD of FGW and if the bid going in is imminent then it suggests that it is based on stock that would need these electrification schemes to be completed as above. I know this is joined up thinking which the dft doesn`t really do but if not done it really implies diesels need to be ordered which politically is not a good look.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Unfortunately the MD of a TOC doesn’t make the decisions - he has as much power as a lowly BR Area Manager these days (arguably less), hence part of his frustration. The DfT and the Treasury will (eventually) make a decision on this and all the other replacement schemes that they are gathering in at the moment.

Given the state of the industry’s finances and what the Governmental attitude towards rail is at the moment, I would be amazed if any decision on GWR is taken this side of a GE.

The implication here isn’t diesels, it’s do nothing.

 

[Krokodil]

I wonder how the future battery trains will cope with seawater at Dawlish?

The IETs were supposed to be Dawlish-proof. Which went well...

 

[Benjwri]

Okehampton was already there so didn't need millions spent on it.

They spent £40.5 million on it, that sounds like spending millions to me.

 

[Snow1964]

I wonder how the future battery trains will cope with seawater at Dawlish?

Since the sea wall was rebuilt, and raised with its curved deflector shape, presumably less likely train will get drenched.

But for time being, probably not until at least 2040 are there likely to be battery trains south of Taunton or Exeter. At moment can't even get the paused electrification to Bristol. Subsequently electrification might happen to Weston-super-Mare, and Frome via Trowbridge. However I think any further electrification is much more likely to head north (Bristol towards Gloucester, and onwards towards Birmingham, and Oxford-Birmingham) before there is any attempt at electrifying towards Cornwall.

Whatever the aspirations for project Churchward, and it is likely to replace all the Thames Valley and Wessex fleets. I think that there is high chance the Devon and Cornwall lines will not go battery during 2030s, but will have decade with interim diesel fleet (surplus 168s etc). I just have feeling Treasury will be looking to spread cost over number of years, but I might be wrong.

 

[geordieblue]

Don't make things up as you go along.

I’m not the one who brought LNER up, as I suspect you know.

 

[Western Sunset]

Is there actually any proactive plan for GW electrification now? Or is it being made reactively "on the hoof"?

 

[Snow1964]

Is there actually any proactive plan for GW electrification now? Or is it being made reactively "on the hoof"?

There is unfunded plan to re-start Bristol (both ways) and Oxford. But basically it is blocked by DfT at behest of Treasury.

There is planned second stage, Reading to Basingstoke, Bathampton to Frome/ Warminster. After that it is more outline plan with Newbury-Westbury, Weston-super-mare, then up to Gloucester from Yate

 

[Western Sunset]

Presumably, the Bristol (both ways) and Oxford stretches will have to be replanned from scratch, due to changes in standards etc. Or can the substantial work on these sections be reused?

 

[Xavi]

Whilst I agree Okehampton is a welcome success, I don't think I've ever seen an Okehampton train full and standing, even from Crediton to Exeter.

I agree it is not a regular occurrence, though I did witness this myself at around 1530 departing Exeter a few weeks ago while I was waiting on adjacent platform. I was surprised and checked there hadn’t been an earlier cancellation.

The new Okehampton (Parkway) station may bring some capacity issues with 2-car trains. It will be a convenient option for people travelling by car from across west Devon and parts of Cornwall to the regional capital, Exeter. Exeter centre parking for 7 hours is £10 and it can take 30 minutes from A30 Alphington junction to city centre at busy times.

 

[class26]

Unfortunately the MD of a TOC doesn’t make the decisions - he has as much power as a lowly BR Area Manager these days (arguably less), hence part of his frustration. The DfT and the Treasury will (eventually) make a decision on this and all the other replacement schemes that they are gathering in at the moment.

Given the state of the industry’s finances and what the Governmental attitude towards rail is at the moment, I would be amazed if any decision on GWR is taken this side of a GE.

The implication here isn’t diesels, it’s do nothing.

I fully understand all of that but would FGW have spent much tiem and effort putting together a proposal for new stock that relied on certain electrification being completed if there was no chance of it being done ?

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Is there actually any proactive plan for GW electrification now? Or is it being made reactively "on the hoof"?

Quite simply no, there’s no funding at present for any of these schemes including any rework of aborted schemes.

 

[Clarence Yard]

I fully understand all of that but would FGW have spent much tiem and effort putting together a proposal for new stock that relied on certain electrification being completed if there was no chance of it being done ?

Yes, because it was in their contract to do so. And you don’t get a big percentage of your contract performance fees if you don’t do what the DfT tells you to do.

 

[Xavi]

Unfortunately the MD of a TOC doesn’t make the decisions

Indeed, at least the best ideas are being documented.

I have knowledge of a number of what can best be described as very useful ‘regional’ infrastructure improvements now being developed by NR, all of which have the hallmarks of input from TOC MDs. However, I expect there will be limited expenditure by the current administration. Instead there will be a lot of fanfare and promises with the delivery (and real cost) left to the next administration, who then say it’s unaffordable.

NorthernTrains procurement notice today falls in the same category and I expect Operation Churchward may follow.

 

[class26]

Yes, because it was in their contract to do so. And you don’t get a big percentage of your contract performance fees if you don’t do what the DfT tells you to do.

Then why would the dft instruct FGW to prepare a proposal for new stock which it seems will all need some form of electric supply if they knew full well there was no chance of any electrification ?

 

[Energy]

Then why would the dft instruct FGW to prepare a proposal for new stock which it seems ill all need some form of electric supply if they knew full well there was no chance of any electrification ?

Didcot to Oxford and Bristol (both ways) weren't formerly cancelled but indefinitely delayed. Battery trains utilising potential electrification would improve the business case for said electrification.

Also potential for diesel now and battery later, like in the tender Northern just released.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Then why would the dft instruct FGW to prepare a proposal for new stock which it seems will all need some form of electric supply if they knew full well there was no chance of any electrification ?

Nobody has said there will never be a chance of electrification, the question was is there currently any more electrification planned to which the answer is no, this report may be what is needed to kick start future plans.

 

[Krokodil]

How much would it cost to complete Bristol and Oxford? I understand that many of the foundations are done, the signalling is done, the steelwork is sat on an airfield somewhere, Bristol East Junction has been remodelled, I think Oxford has been too now, and presumably the bridges (except possibly Chippenham) have all been lifted.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Does anyone know why there are two Cardiff - Portsmouth Harbour departures within fifteen minutes of each other on Sunday evenings? From memory, both are booked 158 but the later of the two is almost always just two cars. I'm curious as to why they're two separate services.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Does anyone know why there are two Cardiff - Portsmouth Harbour departures within fifteen minutes of each other on Sunday evenings? From memory, both are booked 158 but the later of the two is almost always just two cars. I'm curious as to why they're two separate services.

One is the regular pattern fast service (booked 4 cars), the other is a relief serving all stations. The other is a 2 car, run 6 cars and it’s back 2 locked out due to short platforms.

 

[Energy]

How much would it cost to complete Bristol and Oxford? I understand that many of the foundations are done, the signalling is done, the steelwork is sat on an airfield somewhere, Bristol East Junction has been remodelled, I think Oxford has been too now, and presumably the bridges (except possibly Chippenham) have all been lifted.

Bristol both ways had most of the preparatory works done both ways years ago. Wires currently stop east of Chippenham but there are masts and foundations west. Chippenham Station has already had its track layout changed to accommodate OLE masts through the centre. Bristol Temple Meads' roof rebuild isn't due to be finished till Summer 2024 but this is unlikely to affect electrification.

Bath isn't an uncermountable challenge, they already had special designs done for Bath and the council is supportive on the condition that all trains going through Bath are electric if the OHLE goes up.

IIRC the feeder at Bristol shouldn't be too much longer.

Oxford has had its track layout changed so OHLE can be done independently of the station rebuild.

 

[uglymonkey]

I think as long as they seem to want to construct any electrification out of solid gold and unobtainium ,with 4 or 5 times initial cost eventually paid in cost overruns once a project has started, I cant see the government, of any hue, restarting any big electrification projects any time soon. Other than little "infill" projects they seem to have totally lost the plot with project management and financial sense, with the GWR project that it has seriously soured the taste of the government for any similar project anytime soon, be it completing GWR or doing something similar elsewhere.

How much would it cost to complete Bristol and Oxford? I understand that many of the foundations are done, the signalling is done, the steelwork is sat on an airfield somewhere, Bristol East Junction has been remodelled, I think Oxford has been too now, and presumably the bridges (except possibly Chippenham) have all been lifted.