WelshBluebird
Established Member
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- 14 Jan 2010
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I still can't believe that it is 2023 and some people, even here, are trying to argue that climate change isn't happening and that somehow reducing pollution is a bad thing.
And this is the most important question of all, and one left generally unanswered by people pressing for rapid change. What is the economic cost of taking measures to reduce carbon emissions?The fourth question should be
Who pays the cost of all the changes needed to combat climate change?
This is at the heart of issues such as ULEZ, banning of new gas boilers and their replacement by heat pumps, banning of new petrol cars... etc.
People may well be sympathetic to issues regarding climate change and global warming, but they simply cannot afford the cost of the changes that are imposed on them by the authorities, with little or no consultation.
Oh come on, this can be a very right wing forum, you can't be that surprised surely?I still can't believe that it is 2023 and some people, even here, are trying to argue that climate change isn't happening and that somehow reducing pollution is a bad thing.
It does feel a little that way, certainly watching some of the 'Just Stop Oil' campaigners you'd think that we were literally years or months from the end of the world. I'm pretty certain we aren't. But I think we have moved into an era where people think that in order to change anything you have to name, shame, blame & scare the crap out of people. The problem with that is that it simply doesn't work, sooner or later the scare effect wears off, especially when those people look outside and see another typical British summer. And in countries where there is extreme poverty, war, crime, corruption, scaring people with theories that they might burn sometime in the future won't even register. Scare tactics are quite frankly a quaint, but slightly annoying Middle England thing to do. Let's face it, most of the younger people gluing themselves to things, or playing with orange stuff will get bored sooner or later and move on to working at Daddy's company in the city...It feels like Covid MKII, another cult.
I particularly love the older eco warriors who have had a nice life and now want to tell the young to change.
There are as many conspiracy theories on the other side.There are a lot of conspiracy theorists about. They appear to believe that climate change has been invented or exaggerated for ideological or financial reasons. During Covid we had the "anti-vaxxers" who held similar beliefs. Furthermore, several studies have shown that those who voted for Brexit are twice as likely to believe that climate change is not caused by human activity!
The problem with JSO is none of them really want to sacrifice anything meaningful to them.It does feel a little that way, certainly watching some of the 'Just Stop Oil' campaigners you'd think that we were literally years or months from the end of the world. I'm pretty certain we aren't. But I think we have moved into an era where people think that in order to change anything you have to name, shame, blame & scare the crap out of people. The problem with that is that it simply doesn't work, sooner or later the scare effect wears off, especially when those people look outside and see another typical British summer. And in countries where there is extreme poverty, war, crime, corruption, scaring people with theories that they might burn sometime in the future won't even register. Scare tactics are quite frankly a quaint, but slightly annoying Middle England thing to do. Let's face it, most of the younger people gluing themselves to things, or playing with orange stuff will get bored sooner or later and move on to working at Daddy's company in the city...![]()
It feels like Covid MKII, another cult.
And what is the economic cost of not taking measures to reduce carbon emissions? We assume that just because money isn't spent, that we have saved all that money, but if there are increased costs elsewhere in future, we haven't saved all that money, and in the long run may even have spent more than if the early investment was made (this applies to all areas of finance/business, not just climate change mitigation and adaptation). I would like to see more outlets and studies actually publish this to better inform our decisions and understanding.And this is the most important question of all, and one left generally unanswered by people pressing for rapid change. What is the economic cost of taking measures to reduce carbon emissions?
Only one slight problem with that post, most of it has been happening for years, some decades and even centuries. But thank you for demonstrating the kind of scare tactic that people will quickly tire of.Part of the problem is that the consequences of not acting are separated in time from the failure to take the action. So when hundreds of thousands of people start finding that their houses regularly flood and they can’t get any insurance; when people in the U.K. start losing houses every year to out-of-control field fires; when regular crop failures result in periodic food restrictions even in developed countries; when refugee numbers start to become genuinely likely to swamp more northerly countries (instead of being a right-wing shibboleth); when getting your water from a standpipe becomes a normal part of a British summer - then people will start demanding that someone - not them, obviously - do something about it. But by that time the changes will be -um- baked in, so to speak.
So I’m afraid it’s another End-Permian extinction event on the cards.
I wish I could like that final paragraph 100 times.what are the concerns? I don't understand the issue tbh: If a second hand 13 year old diesel powered BWM is exempt then most vehicles will be exempt!
I have just done a UK wide check and I WOULD pay in ULEZ charges in Birmingham & Bristol but nowhere else - in honesty that doesn't seem unreasonable for having an older oil burner ( which I now sadly don't have)
As for right wing: It is all over the right wing press, social media and influencer networks and is being happily regurgitated by the hard of thinking as a crucial anti woke issue. The Tories have drawn the (incorrect in my view) conclusion that because they retained Uxbridge on a wafer thin majority due to a distorted ULEZ issue then this will be repeated around the country.
Of course it has. The processes have been long in motion. Our civilisation has already begun its collapse, which is why life seems to be getting harder for more and more people - it’s just that we don’t have the vantage point to see it because we’re up too close.Only one slight problem with that post, most of it has been happening for years, some decades and even centuries.
What is their end goal?Most people agree with JSO's end goal, just not the methods they are using to achieve it.
Of course it has. The processes have been long in motion. Our civilisation has already begun its collapse, which is why life seems to be getting harder for more and more people - it’s just that we don’t have the vantage point to see it because we’re up too close.
And it will go on, slowly degrading, forcing acceptance that things that were once commonplace are no longer available, affordable or feasible, and each problem will come closer on the heels of the last, making resilience ever more difficult, while people with vested interests smugly assure others that there’s really not a problem.
As the articles highlight there is an aspiration to ban new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 but there is no legislation to implement it. Government can announce its going to ban lots of things but until legislation is in place then there is no ban.There may well have been a "consultation" over ULEZ, but that is of little consolation if you find yourself having to pay £12.50 per day and not being able to afford to replace your vehicle with one that is ULEZ compliant.
And there is a ban on new petrol and diesel cars, from 2030 in the UK, and 2035 in the EU.
UK 2030 petrol and diesel sales ban: what is it and what cars are affected? | Auto Express
The ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars is set to be introduced in 2030, we explain what it means for you and your motorwww.autoexpress.co.uk
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it is amusing to note that someone who has concerns about ULEZ is labelled "right wing".
I'll give you this one since it's a very good point to raise and puts things in more perspective.Whilst China produces twice the emissions of the USA, it should be noted that with a population of 1,412 million Vs the USA's 332 million (a factor of 4.25) the per person emissions of the USA are actually about double that of China.
Can you maybe clarify what you mean by this? UK emissions are considerably lower than the US and China's (1.1% vs 14% and 30% respectively) but I'm not sure if you're talking on a per capita basis which I don't know the figures of or if you meant something else entirely.If the USA were to reduce their personal emissions to half way between where they are and China's (or the UK as both are similar) that would cut global emissions by about 4%.
I am somewhat sceptical of the idea of China looking over to the UK and thinking "maybe we should follow their lead", however I would definitely argue that they're in a better position to do so since it's a one-party state that doesn't have to deal with eco-lunatics or climate-deniers alike, and they have also experienced an intense heatwave that could easily push them into making better policy-making decisions such as more nuclear energy instead of coal which definitely wouldn't pass so easily over here because of green movements opposing it for some strange reason, along with high-speed rail to replace domestic air travel. Whether they care enough to implement them remains to be seen though.Someone did an experiment where they have people data showing the advantages of reduced car use, one focused on cost, one focused on health and a third focused on the environmental benefits, none of the had a material impact.
There was however a fourth leaflet, which showed that others were reducing their car usage, which had the biggest impact on car usage.
Now, whilst the two biggest craters of carbon (the USA and China) may have the biggest impact on global emissions, however they're not going to change if no one else is.
By showing the USA that we've reduced our personal carbon emissions from being where they are now (they were noticeable higher at the time we were at that time) and we've still got a good standard of living (i.e. we've not had to live in caves to do so) then there's a higher chance that they will continue adding their path to decarbonisation.
By showing China that it's possible not to need to burn coal to create power it should be possible to become a developed nation without having to go through the process of having steam trains, as technology has allowed certain steps to be missed. If you can skip out having steam trains, what other steps can you also skip but still get to the same end result?
For example China has a much more advanced EV market than we do (over double the percentage of new cars are EV's and the top 4 cars are all EV's, with a further 2 in the top ten and only one pure ICE in the top ten).
Likewise they have seen high speed rail use raise significantly at they've rapidly built their network, which means they are less reliant on internal flights to get around their country.
If we replicated those successes and had a few more of our own, we could further demonstrate how it's possible to have a developed world lifestyle without needing to burn significant amounts of oil and gas.
I'll be dead before it actually affects me too greatly and I don't have kids so I don't care enough to stop driving and holidaying. Live whilst I'm alive thank you very much,.
Absolutely. Climate change itself is entirely natural, part of the lifecycle of a planet. Even if humanity were not around at the moment, the planet would still be heating up. The question is to what extent (if any) we have accelerated the process. We also need to bear in mind that this a year where El Nino is at its most active, so this was always going to be a hot summer for those near the equator and tropics.Climate change has been happening ever since the planet was first formed, some of it gradual and some of it sudden - caused by factors on Earth and in the rest of the Solar System.
For the current situation what needs to be determined is how much is down to those natural factors and how much is down to mankind's actions. And for the latter, what can be done to mitigate or reverse that impact.
Climate change has been happening ever since the planet was first formed, some of it gradual and some of it sudden - caused by factors on Earth and in the rest of the Solar System.
For the current situation what needs to be determined is how much is down to those natural factors and how much is down to mankind's actions. And for the latter, what can be done to mitigate or reverse that impact.
To my mind, the biggest manmade cause is population increase. In 1950 the estimated global population was around 2½ billion and it's now around 8 billion. The population trebling in size in 70 years puts a huge strain on the resources available to sustain them: land for housing, land for food, water supplies, energy, jobs, health care.
Until the global birthrate reduces to zero (or even negative) we don't really have a chance of reducing the human factors of climate change.
Absolutely. Climate change itself is entirely natural, part of the lifecycle of a planet. Even if humanity were not around at the moment, the planet would still be heating up.
The neoglaciation ("renewed glaciation") describes the documented cooling trend in the Earth's climate during the Holocene, following the retreat of the Wisconsin glaciation, the most recent glacial period. Neoglaciation has followed the hypsithermal or Holocene Climatic Optimum, the warmest point in the Earth's climate during the current interglacial stage, excluding the global warming-induced temperature increase starting in the 20th century. The neoglaciation has no well-marked universal beginning: local conditions and ecological inertia affected the onset of detectably cooler (and wetter) conditions.
Driven inexorably by the Milankovitch cycle, cooler summers in higher latitudes of North America, which would cease to completely melt the annual snowfall, were masked at first by the presence of the slowly disappearing continental ice sheets, which persisted long after the astronomically calculated moment of maximum summer warmth: "the neoglaciation can be said to have begun when the cooling caught up with the warming", remarked E. C. Pielou.[1] With the close of the "Little Ice Age" (mid-14th to late 19th centuries), neoglaciation appears to have been reversed in the late 20th century, evidently caused by anthropogenic global warming. Neoglaciation had been marked by a retreat from the warm conditions of the Climatic Optimum and the advance or reformation of glaciers that had not existed since the last ice age. In the mountains of western North America, montane glaciers that had completely melted reformed shortly before 5000 BP.[2] The most severe part of the best documented neoglacial period, especially in Europe and the North Atlantic, is termed the "Little Ice Age".
Have you ever had a heat pump? If not, how do you know they don't actually work? Seems like you're just jumping on a bandwagon. They do work.Why would I want for example a heat pump that doesn't work and leaves me having to buy and use expensive electric fires or oil-filled radiators or calor gas heaters just to smooth the ego and boost the profits of someone that says we have a climate emergency?
It's not about being forced to give up meat or properly heat our homes, etc. If a lot of people make small adjustments it can still have a reasonable effect. I was (mostly) vegetarian for a while when in my 20s, but I didn't completely give up meat; I shared a house with two veggies and a vegan, and I found it easy to make small adjustments to meals that I'd usually make with meat. I'd still indulge in the odd bacon buttie on the way to work, or a sausage roll at lunchtime, but I didn't find the reduction in meat-eating too onerous. If anything, I felt far healthier than I'd ever done.Those pushing net zero seem to want us to accelerate that process *further* (!), by forcing us to give up eating meat, heating our homes properly, driving a car or going on foreign holidays.
It's not about being forced to give up meat or properly heat our homes, etc.
If a lot of people make small adjustments it can still have a reasonable effect.
Meat is consuming the planet.
“we should shut down livestock farming”
As far as heating homes is concerned, the best way to reduce the amount of energy being used is to ensure that every home is insulated to the maximum extent possible; it's also one of the easiest and cost-effective methods and people will feel it in their pockets when their bills are reduced.
Nobody is suggesting that we should give up driving either,
Those who promote greener behaviour are often accused of scaremongering but it comes from both sides; suggesting that people will have to give up this that and the other is just that - scaremongering!