TFW To Shake Up Rail Timetables

[Dai Corner]

Of course they should consider all factors, including the effect upon the local economy and the environment of closure.

If you want to know what good integrated transport would look like, take a look at Switzerland. The train would be more frequent and would connect properly with the Sherpas and TrawsCymru network at Betws and Blaenau. The Swiss certainly wouldn't do a headcount of the 100 people on a typical daytime journey at this time of year and go "what we need to do is cram this lot onto a bus".

There's a few reasons why they used to use two buses for the rail replacement work if the line was closed in the summer. Partly because a bus can't maintain the schedule if it is stopping everywhere, so one would be limited stops, partly because of the passenger numbers.

Oh, and development work is progressing on the small modular reactors planned for Trawsfynydd so there is a prospect of freight returning to the line.

How does the running costs of two or three buses compare with that of a two car DMU? How about the local environmental effects if they were rechargeable buses?


I'd certainly hope the TfW-sponsored buses and TfW-sponsored trains all have good connections.

Separate semi-fast and stopping services sounds attractive too. Would the railway infrastructure support that, plus any future freight?

To put it more starkly, would there be an overall benefit to the people of north Wales and the wider if instead of running trains up the Conwy Valley a similar amount of money was spent on electrifying Wrexham-Bidston and running through to Liverpool and improving the Conwy Valley roads and through to Trawsfynydd for the power station?

I'm not advocating either as I'm not familiar with area, but I think it's something an integrated transport authority should be thinking. I'm not convinced treating the railways as sacrosanct is the best way of spending taxpayers' money.

I think we should leave it there and agree to disagree.

 

[Tom125]

I don't know - IIRC it was mainly a matter of adding an extra passing loop, but I've no idea how much work has been done or what the timescale is for anything further.

Used the Ebbw line today- building Newbridge and Llanhilleth second platforms underway. Signalling work going on. Double track down in sections and lots of work on bankings by the river/ mountains.

 

[Krokodil]

How does the running costs of two or three buses compare with that of a two car DMU?

How much revenue will be lost when almost all passengers find non-public transport options? Revenue on connecting main line trains too.

How about the local environmental effects if they were rechargeable buses?

Car tyres produce vastly more particle pollution than exhausts, tests show

Toxic particles from tyre wear almost 2,000 times worse than from exhausts as weight of cars increases

www.theguardian.com

I'd certainly hope the TfW-sponsored buses and TfW-sponsored trains all have good connections.

Don't be daft, the UK railway doesn't bother planning connections, let alone between modes.

Separate semi-fast and stopping services sounds attractive too. Would the railway infrastructure support that, plus any future freight?

Doesn’t need to, the trains manage to stick to the timetable, even with the stops.

if instead of running trains up the Conwy Valley a similar amount of money was spent on electrifying Wrexham-Bidston and running through to Liverpool and improving the Conwy Valley roads and through to Trawsfynydd for the power station?

If you think that the operating/maintenance costs of the Conwy Valley Line come anywhere close to what it would cost to electrify Wrexham-Bidston, let alone the rest then you're in cloud cuckoo land.

I'm not familiar with area,

You don't need to tell me that.

I'm not advocating either as I'm not familiar with area, but I think it's something an integrated transport authority should be thinking.

I've provided you with an example of a country which is renowned for transport integration. They'd be putting on an hourly (or better) service, not contemplating closure.

I'm not convinced treating the railways as sacrosanct is the best way of spending taxpayers' money.

This isn't some parliamentary service, only kept going with two passengers onboard (probably BLS-types) to avoid going through formal proceedings. This is a line which is heavily used by tourists and locals alike. I suggest that you head for Betws-y-Coed and count how many passengers board the daytime trains.

 

[Dai Corner]

How much revenue will be lost when almost all passengers find non-public transport options? Revenue on connecting main line trains too.

Maybe less than the operating and infrastructure maintenance costs?

Don't be daft, the UK railway doesn't bother planning connections, let alone between modes.

A Welsh integrated transport authority could/should.

Doesn’t need to, the trains manage to stick to the timetable, even with the stops.

Could a limited stop bus cover the end-to-end journeys more quickly, leaving another bus to pick up at the intermediate stations and places not within walking distance of stations?

If you think that the operating/maintenance costs of the Conwy Valley Line come anywhere close to what it would cost to electrify Wrexham-Bidston, let alone the rest then you're in cloud cuckoo land.

Looked at over a forty or fifty year period, quite possibly.

I've provided you with an example of a country which is renowned for transport integration. They'd be putting on an hourly (or better) service, not contemplating closure

A rather more wealthy country. Have they ever replaced trains with buses? I don't know. Perhaps somebody else can enlighten us?

This isn't some parliamentary service, only kept going with two passengers onboard (probably BLS-types) to avoid going through formal proceedings. This is a line which is heavily used by tourists and locals alike. I suggest that you head for Betws-y-Coed and count how many passengers board the daytime trains.

I hope to. Probably in the winter when I can travel free on my bus pass.

 

[tomuk]

If wanting a better future makes me part of "the green lobby" then I'll wear that badge with honour. You remind me of a bloke I know who keeps ranting about an offshore windfarm and goes on about how he burned extra coal last winter to stick two fingers up at Greta Thunberg.

You'd be very much in the wrong. I support Windfarms both off and onshore, they have however spoilt the charm of my grandmother's childhood home if an isolated cottage 5 miles from the nearest village has any charm to start with. And am very much against burning coal. People have moaned at me elsewhere for my apparent obsession for moaning at the Germans for burning the dirtiest of lignite instead of keeping their nuclear power plants open. As to Greta Thunberg she is at best a complete waste of time.

 

[daodao]

Deleted.

 

[Krokodil]

I hope to. Probably in the winter when I can travel free on my bus pass.

Why wait until then? You can use your bus pass year-round on the Conwy Valley (and the Borderlands). Which does beg the question of whether the WAG would have more money for service enhancements if they stopped granting free travel to every Tom, Dick and Harriet - not just pensioners but accompanied kids and Ukrainian nationals (whether they're actual refugees or have been resident in the UK for a decade).

There are rumours that management have finally recognised the need for formations on the North Wales Coast to be of at least a minimum length, rather than the two-car sets TfW has become synonymous with. Shame it took so many delay minutes, standby buses, passengers claiming for taxis, ambulance calls, staff abuse, station staff walking out, and train crews refusing to move wedged trains for a decision to be made.

 

[Dai Corner]

Why wait until then? You can use your bus pass year-round on the Conwy Valley (and the Borderlands). Which does beg the question of whether the WAG would have more money for service enhancements if they stopped granting free travel to every Tom, Dick and Harriet - not just pensioners but accompanied kids and Ukrainian nationals (whether they're actual refugees or have been resident in the UK for a decade).

There are rumours that management have finally recognised the need for formations on the North Wales Coast to be of at least a minimum length, rather than the two-car sets TfW has become synonymous with. Shame it took so many delay minutes, standby buses, passengers claiming for taxis, ambulance calls, staff abuse, station staff walking out, and train crews refusing to move wedged trains for a decision to be made.

Would a DMU be better employed on the North Wales coast line carrying fare paying passengers than concessionary passholders on the Conwy Valley line?

 

[Krokodil]

Would a DMU be better employed on the North Wales coast line carrying fare paying passengers than concessionary passholders on the Conwy Valley line?

Would a DMU be better employed taking people to work or taking holidaymakers to the beach?

Why do you insist on setting everyone against each other? It's not a binary choice, they've started using four car formations on the coast regularly, so evidently they don't need to poach a unit from the Conwy Valley to achieve it.

 

[Dai Corner]

Would a DMU be better employed taking people to work or taking holidaymakers to the beach?

Why do you insist on setting everyone against each other? It's not a binary choice, they've started using four car formations on the coast regularly, so evidently they don't need to poach a unit from the Conwy Valley to achieve it.

It is a binary choice. There are only so many DMUs available.

 

[Krokodil]

It is a binary choice. There are only so many DMUs available.

Clearly there are more than you think given that they have been strengthening services. Helps that a large batch of 197s have just been accepted. The new fleet will represent roughly a 50% increase in capacity once everything is in service.

 

[Dai Corner]

Clearly there are more than you think given that they have been strengthening services. Helps that a large batch of 197s have just been accepted. The new fleet will represent roughly a 50% increase in capacity once everything is in service.

Yes, but is a 197 going to carry more passengers travelling into Birmingham, Manchester or Liverpool, down the Marches or along the north coast than up and down the Conwy Valley or to Fishguard or Pembroke Dock?

 

[Steve B]

Yes, but is a 197 going to carry more passengers travelling into Birmingham, Manchester or Liverpool, down the Marches or along the north coast than up and down the Conwy Valley or to Fishguard or Pembroke Dock?

On a recent trip I took to Betws-y-Coed the train was full and standing. The connecting train from Bangor to Llandudno Junction was half empty!...

 

[Techniquest]

Is it just me always hoping for an actual update about the proposed timetable whenever a notification pops up for this thread? Instead all it is is more posts bickering and going on about whatever!

 

[Express380]

Is it just me always hoping for an actual update about the proposed timetable whenever a notification pops up for this thread? Instead all it is is more posts bickering and going on about whatever!

It defiantly isn't just you I keep hoping to hear updates too, instead of all the Conwy valley stuff!

 

[Starmill]

This is a line which is heavily used by tourists and locals alike.

Er, sure it is.

 

[Techniquest]

It defiantly isn't just you I keep hoping to hear updates too, instead of all the Conwy valley stuff!

Excellent, here's hoping in the coming hours it'll all be dealt with. I can't be bothered filing a report

On the bright side, I'm glad to hear I can expect my next journey (whenever that will be) on the Conwy Valley route to be very busy!

 

[175001]

Love the fact that Conwy Valley line triggers so many.

Fact is, it's booming at the moment following the T19 withdrawl

 

[Krokodil]

Er, sure it is.

Don't just take my word for it, another poster referred to full & standing services.

It's incredible how when TfW propose recasting timetables to reflect new travel patterns (which have a greater emphasis on leisure travel than before) that some posters jump to suggest closure of lines that they admit to not being familiar with, as if they know better than the staff and passengers.

Yes, but is a 197 going to carry more passengers travelling into Birmingham, Manchester or Liverpool, down the Marches or along the north coast than up and down the Conwy Valley or to Fishguard or Pembroke Dock?

Would those be the Birmingham services where four car 196s run twice an hour but are apparently relatively lightly patronised because the passengers make a beeline for the express services? I'm sure that a solution can be worked out.

I suggest that you take a trip down to Pembroke Dock and suggest to the passengers that their services be withdrawn in order to provide more trains within England. Let us know how you get on.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jul 2023 ==

Several four and five car 197s covering the North Wales - Manchester service today. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

 

[Anonymous10]

Don't just take my word for it, another poster referred to full & standing services.

It's incredible how when TfW propose recasting timetables to reflect new travel patterns (which have a greater emphasis on leisure travel than before) that some posters jump to suggest closure of lines that they admit to not being familiar with, as if they know better than the staff and passengers.


Would those be the Birmingham services where four car 196s run twice an hour but are apparently relatively lightly patronised because the passengers make a beeline for the express services? I'm sure that a solution can be worked out.

I suggest that you take a trip down to Pembroke Dock and suggest to the passengers that their services be withdrawn in order to provide more trains within England. Let us know how you get on.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jul 2023 ==

Several four and five car 197s covering the North Wales - Manchester service today. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

I can tell you that you'd find a far busier service than you might expect the growth these lines are seeing in the south west is massive to what I've seen. The milford branch is regularly fully seated by Carmarthen as is the Pembroke Dock branch, don't forget it runs through Saundersfoot and Tenby as well as Narberth which are tourist hot spots.

 

[Krokodil]

I can tell you that you'd find a far busier service than you might expect the growth these lines are seeing in the south west is massive to what I've seen. The milford branch is regularly fully seated by Carmarthen as is the Pembroke Dock branch, don't forget it runs through Saundersfoot and Tenby as well as Narberth which are tourist hot spots.

I'm not surprised at all. Anywhere with a beach is heaving these days.

 

[Anonymous10]

I'm not surprised at all. Anywhere with a beach is heaving these days.

Couldn't agree more and most buses here now are run on demand and prebooking required.

 

[Starmill]

It's incredible how when TfW propose recasting timetables to reflect new travel patterns (which have a greater emphasis on leisure travel than before) that some posters jump to suggest closure of lines that they admit to not being familiar with, as if they know better than the staff and passengers.

Generally people looking at the picture in the round from their office desk will know better than staff and passengers, yes. Passengers are likely to travel on busy trains by definition, that's why they're busy. Staff will be a more representative split but as I point out on the regular just travelling on trains is a very poor way to interpret this. Different people will say trains are busy with proportionally very large changes in loading.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jul 2023 ==

I'm not surprised at all. Anywhere with a beach is heaving these days.

As people have pointed out ad infinitum, demand for beaches is a few days per year when it's sunny and warm, and at that generally only during Easter and the school summer holiday weeks. You get about 20 days out of 365 when traffic to and from the beach is heavy. No railway can maintain resources for accommodating that kind of traffic all year round.

 

[Anonymous10]

Generally people looking at the picture in the round from their office desk will know better than staff and passengers, yes. Passengers are likely to travel on busy trains by definition, that's why they're busy. Staff will be a more representative split but as I point out on the regular just travelling on trains is a very poor way to interpret this. Different people will say trains are busy with proportionally very large changes in loading.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jul 2023 ==


As people have pointed out ad infinitum, demand for beaches is a few days per year when it's sunny and warm, and at that generally only during Easter and the school summer holiday weeks. You get about 20 days out of 365 when traffic to and from the beach is heavy. No railway can maintain resources for accommodating that kind of traffic all year round.

Coming from a local the trains are as busy on wet days as dry people travel both ways remember.

 

[Krokodil]

Generally people looking at the picture in the round from their office desk will know better than staff and passengers, yes. Passengers are likely to travel on busy trains by definition, that's why they're busy. Staff will be a more representative split but as I point out on the regular just travelling on trains is a very poor way to interpret this. Different people will say trains are busy with proportionally very large changes in loading.

People in offices looking at data can only work with the quality of data they've been given, and the skill of the individual will have a massive bearing on how it's interpreted. Passenger count fortnights show a very limited time window, and never take place in school holidays. Ticketing data will be aggregated to some degree and won't therefore show all of the detail. Automated passenger counts on rolling stock produce some real howlers. It's always worth getting down on the ground every now and then to do some fact finding with frontline staff, it helps to put the data into context.

Sending directors or DfT civil servants out to the coalface has had a very big influence in resolving longstanding issues - when they're the one wedged onto a packed train they appreciate just what everyone else is going through.

One civil servant asked why people in the north were complaining about Pacers. The then Northern MD invited him to take a peak time journey on a Liverpool to Manchester stopper. When it arrived at Oxford Road the bloke was apparently a gibbering wreck.

It's like with looking at performance. You can look at delay cause statistics, download OTDRs but sometimes it takes a conversation with frontline staff to pinpoint the actual issue. In my experience good performance analysts do appreciate input from frontline staff.

As people have pointed out ad infinitum, demand for beaches is a few days per year when it's sunny and warm, and at that generally only during Easter and the school summer holiday weeks. You get about 20 days out of 365 when traffic to and from the beach is heavy. No railway can maintain resources for accommodating that kind of traffic all year round.

For day trippers, yes. For people who are staying for the week they'll have booked their accommodation months in advance. Trains to holiday destinations have been busy since Easter, and now we've entered silly season where passengers get left behind.

The railway has spent decades catering for brief periods of heavy demand in the peaks in the SE, with units running empty or littering sidings between them. Maintaining sufficient stock to cater for the heavy demand throughout the day on Mondays, Fridays and Saturdays, as well as strengthening the commuter peaks into Manchester all week is no more inefficient.

 

[Starmill]

People in offices looking at data can only work with the quality of data they've been given, and the skill of the individual will have a massive bearing on how it's interpreted. Passenger count fortnights show a very limited time window, and never take place in school holidays. Ticketing data will be aggregated to some degree and won't therefore show all of the detail. Automated passenger counts on rolling stock produce some real howlers. It's always worth getting down on the ground every now and then to do some fact finding with frontline staff, it helps to put the data into context.

Sending directors or DfT civil servants out to the coalface has had a very big influence in resolving longstanding issues - when they're the one wedged onto a packed train they appreciate just what everyone else is going through.

One civil servant asked why people in the north were complaining about Pacers. The then Northern MD invited him to take a peak time journey on a Liverpool to Manchester stopper. When it arrived at Oxford Road the bloke was apparently a gibbering wreck.

It's like with looking at performance. You can look at delay cause statistics, download OTDRs but sometimes it takes a conversation with frontline staff to pinpoint the actual issue. In my experience good performance analysts do appreciate input from frontline staff.

Sure, but nobody disagrees with any of that. Those of us who have some operational knowledge as well as understanding of the theory usually do in fact see it from the perspective of the everyday user, or the front-line staff. That's always helpful. Unfortunately that doesn't usually tip the balance when something is so seriously poor value for money. We have to accept that pet lines are kept going for political reasons, not a myth about hidden "social benefit", which is already well-captured by economic appraisal anyway.

Most train services are not crowded. All are costly to operate.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jul 2023 ==

The railway has spent decades catering for brief periods of heavy demand in the peaks in the SE, with units running empty or littering sidings between them.

Indeed, because those passengers four or five days per week, twice a day, yielded enough to cover that cost year-round.

 

[markymark2000]

Love the fact that Conwy Valley line triggers so many.

Fact is, it's booming at the moment following the T19 withdrawl

Given the T19 was almost always very quiet outside of the school journeys, I am not sure how it's withdrawal has led to massively increased rail passenger numbers. Based off every T19 passenger moving onto the train, you'd only be looking at an extra 5-10 pax per train at a push. An extra 5-10 pax per train would not push the crowding to 'booming' unless the train normally was empty.

The railway has spent decades catering for brief periods of heavy demand in the peaks in the SE, with units running empty or littering sidings between them. Maintaining sufficient stock to cater for the heavy demand throughout the day on Mondays, Fridays and Saturdays, as well as strengthening the commuter peaks into Manchester all week is no more inefficient

For this to work, you need skilled people to create all the diagrams. TFW seem to somehow still regularly mess up one day enhancements and they can't cope with basic engineering works now as they often put wrong details into online systems. You have absolutely ZERO chance of these people being able to draw up the timetable that you suggest. Other TOCs are better at it as they have (seemingly) higher quality staff.


Given TFWs love of rail replacement buses, I am surprised that they haven't gone down the East Midlands Railway way of working for Skegness. Run trains and buses. Only those with reservations are guaranteed on the train. Everyone else is piled on later on and risks being put onto a bus.

 

[northwichcat]

So the TfW chief executive has basically said the Welsh rail network is unsustainable, with the exception of Manchester to Cardiff that they make a profit on. Given that statement, why is Manchester to Cardiff not guaranteed to get 3 car sets ahead of other routes, even when there's unit shortages?

 

[Starmill]

Maintaining sufficient stock to cater for the heavy demand throughout the day on Mondays, Fridays and Saturdays, as well as strengthening the commuter peaks into Manchester all week is no more inefficient.

It is unfortunately, because there's absolutely no heavy demand on weekday peaks in and out of Haverfordwest, Carmarthen, Tenby, Llanelli, Llandudno, Llandudno Junction, Bangor, Holyhead or Rhyl. And more importantly the working-day peak demand there is yields about the same as the "bucket and spade" day traffic.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jul 2023 ==

So the TfW chief executive has basically said the Welsh rail network is unsustainable, with the exception of Manchester to Cardiff that they make a profit on. Given that statement, why is Manchester to Cardiff not guaranteed to get 3 car sets ahead of other routes, even when there's unit shortages?

Because if they deprioritised the Conwy Valley or Pembroke Dock services in order to release units for elsewhere, local politicians would go bananas about how Wales isn't getting a fair deal.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

A Welsh integrated transport authority could/should.

TfW runs most of its trains (Valleys apart) as medium/long-distance cross-border services into England.
Connections at places like Shrewsbury, Chester, Crewe and Warrington are at least as important (even to Welsh passengers) as internal Welsh connections.
These types of connections have deteriorated over time as different TOCs have taken their fragmented decisions on service changes.