UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[Mabs]

I'm going to buy a brand new petrol car in 2030 before its banned.

 

[Energy]

I'm going to buy a brand new petrol car in 2030 before its banned.

Strange thing to say 7 years before the ban.

 

[Mabs]

Strange thing to say 7 years before the ban.

You can drive your electric while il continue driving a petrol vehicle.

 

[Bald Rick]

You can drive your electric while il continue driving a petrol vehicle.

Fair enough. Hope you can afford to, as Petrol cars are most likely to be relatively more expensive to buy and operate by then.

 

[Mabs]

Strange thing to say 7 years before the ban.

Also its not strange. I'm saving up monthly so il just buy the car in 2030 in cash.

 

[Energy]

Also its not strange. I'm saving up monthly so il just buy the car in 2030 in cash.

Well most people don't decide it 7 years in advance. What prevents you from switching to electric? If its just what you prefer then fair enough but as Bald Rick says above it'll cost you.

 

[GusB]

I'm going to buy a brand new petrol car in 2030 before its banned.

Seven years is a long time. How do you know that in that timeframe, the opportunities for refuelling that car might have diminished to the extent where it's no longer practical or affordable to own a petrol car?

I recently spent a few days on holiday in (very) rural Perthshire. To be honest, it was the last place that I would have expected there to be any chargers, let alone publicly funded car chargers, but in the village square there were two. In a village with less than 1000 population, I'd say that's fairly good, especially as some of the electric car owners in the village have private driveways and are able to charge at home.

I happened to have a chat with one of the receptionists at the hotel next to where I was staying, and she said that she was walking home that night because she'd left her car charging and wanted to make sure that it had a full charge for her trip to the airport the following morning. If she'd had a car with an internal combustion engine and was low on fuel, it would have required a trip to the nearest town, some 20 miles away by the most direct route, to refuel; while there was once a place in the village that she could have filled up, it has long since gone. That's also the case where I live; when I first moved here, there were three places where I could have filled up within a mile and they've all gone.

Obviously not every situation is going to be the same, but the "electric won't work in rural places" argument no longer seems valid. It's definitely not valid in urban locations where there are far more opportunities to charge your car.

 

[Mabs]

Seven years is a long time. How do you know that in that timeframe, the opportunities for refuelling that car might have diminished to the extent where it's no longer practical or affordable to own a petrol car?

I recently spent a few days on holiday in (very) rural Perthshire. To be honest, it was the last place that I would have expected there to be any chargers, let alone publicly funded car chargers, but in the village square there were two. In a village with less than 1000 population, I'd say that's fairly good, especially as some of the electric car owners in the village have private driveways and are able to charge at home.

I happened to have a chat with one of the receptionists at the hotel next to where I was staying, and she said that she was walking home that night because she'd left her car charging and wanted to make sure that it had a full charge for her trip to the airport the following morning. If she'd had a car with an internal combustion engine and was low on fuel, it would have required a trip to the nearest town, some 20 miles away by the most direct route, to refuel; while there was once a place in the village that she could have filled up, it has long since gone. That's also the case where I live; when I first moved here, there were three places where I could have filled up within a mile and they've all gone.

Obviously not every situation is going to be the same, but the "electric won't work in rural places" argument no longer seems valid. It's definitely not valid in urban locations where there are far more opportunities to charge your car.

If you remember the petrol crisis a couple of years ago and the demand. Its not going away any time soon. I predict millions of people will buy a petrol vehicle just before the ban comes in.

 

[Class 317]

If you remember the petrol crisis a couple of years ago and the demand. Its not going away any time soon. I predict millions of people will buy a petrol vehicle just before the ban comes in.

I think you will be disappointed. The economics for manufacturers just don't add up to do anything but run down their stocks as 2030 approaches. None of them will want to be left with stock they can't sell.

 

[Mabs]

I think you will be disappointed. The economics for manufacturers just don't add up to do anything but run down their stocks as 2030 approaches. None of them will want to be left with stock they can't sell.

I worked for the largest paint supplier in the world for 11 years a few years back. There was a similar ban, you cannot sell a certain product containing high VOC content after a certain date (You can't make new products for sale after the ban date) but you can continue selling what you have in stocks after this date. I'd assume the same rules will apply here.

If so, manufactures could make millions of cars for sale. Any companies doesn't may lose a lot of money.

 

[Domh245]

I worked for the largest paint supplier in the world for 11 years a few years back. There was a similar ban, you cannot sell a certain product containing high VOC content after a certain date (You can't make new products for sale after the ban date) but you can continue selling what you have in stocks after this date. I'd assume the same rules will apply here.

If so, manufactures could make millions of cars for sale. Any companies doesn't may lose a lot of money.

All of the media reports & press releases explicitly refer to 'sales' of petrol and diesel cars/vans, not manufacture. That seems fairly clear cut to me that you will not be allowed to sell any new ICE only vehicle after the deadline (which in practice probably means not being able to register such a vehicle after 28/2/2030 - you may see dealers do mass registration in those last few months but I'd expect most of them to just continue business as usual with the wide variety of hybrid (PHEV/MHEV/HEVs) models that would be available at that time. I don't imagine there will be that many pure ICE only vehicles being offered by that stage

Any definitive legislation does not seem to be passed and available yet but I'd be surprised if it were fundamentally different to the stated intention, unless the government of whichever colour rows back on the promise

 

[Bald Rick]

I'd assume the same rules will apply here.

You assume incorrectly. Manufacturers will not be able to sell petrol only or diesel only vehicles from 2030*

I suspect demand for said vehicles will be quite high, but due to the targets there won’t be that many for sale (maybe around 400,000 in 2029), so expect to pay through the nose.

*There is an outstanding question of ‘how hybrid is hybrid’, though, and almost certainly more than an equivalent EV

 

[Class 317]

You assume incorrectly. Manufacturers will not be able to sell petrol only or diesel only vehicles from 2030*

I suspect demand for said vehicles will be quite high, but due to the targets there won’t be that many for sale (maybe around 400,000 in 2029), so expect to pay through the nose.

*There is an outstanding question of ‘how hybrid is hybrid’, though, and almost certainly more than an equivalent EV

Given that 80% of cars sold will need to be EV's by 2030 and the rest Hybrids I'd be very surprised if manufacturers don't change over most of their production facilities well in advance of the sales deadline to either E V or Hybrid models.

I'm assuming that it takes some time to switch out equipment and retrain workforces etc. No manufacturer will want to not be in a position where come the end of 2029 they are only able to make cars unable to be sold in the home market.

In terms of buying a ICE car close to the 2030 deadline you need to factor in that spare parts, repair expertise and fuel availability will all decline as the number of ICE cars on the roads falls making owning and running one become steadily more difficult over time.

 

[jon0844]

I'm going to buy a brand new petrol car in 2030 before its banned.

Can you imagine how many petrol stations will have closed by then*? Sure, some are being redesigned to give more space to EVs and retain pumps, but as more charging stations go up in car parks all over the place - will people still go to service stations that are often more expensive (both for electricity and food/drink)? The market will dictate and I suspect you'll have to drive further to fill up, or be prepared to pay a hefty premium.

* They're already closing many petrol stations every year as it is - and we've nowhere near transitioned to EVs yet.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jul 2023 ==

I worked for the largest paint supplier in the world for 11 years a few years back. There was a similar ban, you cannot sell a certain product containing high VOC content after a certain date (You can't make new products for sale after the ban date) but you can continue selling what you have in stocks after this date. I'd assume the same rules will apply here.

If so, manufactures could make millions of cars for sale. Any companies doesn't may lose a lot of money.

Random question; did you stockpile incandescent light bulbs before the ban? Do you still use a high-powered, inefficient, vacuum cleaner?

It reads to me, sorry if I'm misinterpreting here, that you're doing this as some sort of protest or political statement rather than using common sense.

 

[david1212]

While sales of new plain ICE cars are due to be phased out, plug-in hybrids are expected to continue to be sold upto 2035 and these provide as much range, if not more than existing plain ICE cars so there isn't really a problem.

True but

.... The targets are:

........
2030, 80% of cars sold are EVs (the other 20% being hybrids)
2035, 100%
....

Also demand for hybrids might well outstrip supply and there is the long term unkinown of how petrol/diesel prices and taxation will be ramped up for both pure ICE and hybrids.

 

[Class 317]

True but



Also demand for hybrids might well outstrip supply and there is the long term unkinown of how petrol/diesel prices and taxation will be ramped up for both pure ICE and hybrids.

Based on trends seen with petrol station closures set against the falling demand for road fuels caused by more efficient ICE cars for road fuels over the 30 years, I can only see filling up becoming more difficult and I can see this change is likely to be faster than many appreciate.

Also as demand for road fuels lowers I'm not sure how it affects the way refineries work. For example, how easy is it to change the split between deferrent products refined from the crude oil and how do any changes affect the costs of the process. Also how will the reducing demand for other oil products relate to the reduced demand for road fuels? How will less frequent deliveries to petrol stations affect the costs of delivery? Will we need to transport fuels further from refinery to forecourt?

I've had another look at current trends for new registrations and if the 35% increase year on year continues within as little as 4 years around 900k new EV'S a year or half of new cars registered will be EV's.

On another note how soon do people think a noticeable impact on air quality will be felt?

 

[dcbwhaley]

Based on trends seen with petrol station closures set against the falling demand for road fuels caused by more efficient ICE cars for road fuels over the 30 years, I can only see filling up becoming more difficult and I can see this change is likely to be faster than many appreciate.

The fall in the number of petrol stations is more due to the major supermarkets and petrol companies forcing independent retailers out of business by undercutting them on price

 

[ExRes]

I've got to say that I simply can't remember the last time I saw a petrol station being permanently shut down, I've seen plenty recently that have temporarily closed for refurbishment but not a single one that hasn't reopened

 

[JamesT]

I've got to say that I simply can't remember the last time I saw a petrol station being permanently shut down, I've seen plenty recently that have temporarily closed for refurbishment but not a single one that hasn't reopened

https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/15469196.bp-petrol-station-botley-set-close/ is a news report of one in Oxford going. But that was 6 years ago.

I don't see a mass closing of petrol stations any time soon. The important figure for those is what proportion of the cars on the road are ICE, not what's being sold. https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/electric-vehicles/ev-statistics claims that a year ago there were 1.8m electric vehicles on Britain's roads. But that's less than 5% of the cars on the roads. I think it would have to be a very brave operator who started shutting down stations and not serving 90% of the market. Even come 2030, the vast majority of cars on the road will be ICE so the demand will still be there.

 

[Noddy]

It doesn't say that they aim for all 6 of the chargers to work at high power at the same time.

The vast majority of electric cars can’t take the maximum that a 150KW+charger can provide so if the X number of chargers are load balancing between the different cars that are plugged in it wont make much of a difference to the user*.

I think the bigger issue is that it seems very unlikely that this ‘aim’ will be met. But as I say a lot of this seems to be down to the grid connections issue, especially as many services stations are actually located in fairly rural isolated locations, rather than a lack of desire by companies to build them.

*most 400 volt cars can only take 100-150KW maximum and even the 800 volt Ionic 6 only takes 233KW max so that still theoretically leaves over 100KW to spare at a modern 350KW charger.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jul 2023 ==

I don't see a mass closing of petrol stations any time soon. The important figure for those is what proportion of the cars on the road are ICE, not what's being sold. https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/electric-vehicles/ev-statistics claims that a year ago there were 1.8m electric vehicles on Britain's roads. But that's less than 5% of the cars on the roads. I think it would have to be a very brave operator who started shutting down stations and not serving 90% of the market. Even come 2030, the vast majority of cars on the road will be ICE so the demand will still be there.

I think the majority of service stations owned by the bigger companies will simply transition to mostly EV charging over the next 2-3 decades, reducing the number of pumps and increasing the car parking space for charging.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jul 2023 ==

Obviously not every situation is going to be the same, but the "electric won't work in rural places" argument no longer seems valid. It's definitely not valid in urban locations where there are far more opportunities to charge your car.

I agree to some degree-it’s not an argument as to whether they or not the work in an urban or rural area. There are public chargers everywhere these days, and they work in both absolutely fine.

It’s much more of an argument of whether or not you have a drive/private parking adjacent to your property. I live in a rural area with a driveway and would recommend to anyone in my position to get an EV. My parents on the other hand live in a tenement in central Glasgow and I would not currently* recommend they get an EV because they do a lot of long journeys for work and family and can’t charge at home.

*until lamppost charging or similar arrives in their area.

 

[MotCO]

I think the majority of service stations owned by the bigger companies will simply transition to mostly EV charging over the next 2-3 decades, reducing the number of pumps and increasing the car parking space for charging.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jul 2023 ==

How much profit do petrol stations make on fuel sales? I thought I had heard that they made more on food sales etc.

 

[Bald Rick]

On another note how soon do people think a noticeable impact on air quality will be felt?

It is very noticeable in central London now - with over half the black cab fleet now PHEV (but usually on electric), a good proportion of minicabs now EV, many EV buses and most of the rest hybrid, and a higher take up of EVs than nationally for those car drivers who choose to drive in.

Of course the ULEZ has also had an impact.

I've had another look at current trends for new registrations and if the 35% increase year on year continues

The trend of increase has been slowing, but it’s reasonable to assume that next year there will be around half a million EVs sold.

Even come 2030, the vast majority of cars on the road will be ICE so the demand will still be there.

Depends what you mean by ‘vast majority’. If you mean ‘rather less than half’ the I agree with you.

 

[87electric]

The Fremantle Highway has apparently caught fire due to an EV, reported by news outlets today.

Ameland rescue: Crew jump off ship ablaze with cargo of 3,000 cars

One person died as fire took hold of the ship as it burned off the Dutch island of Ameland.

www.bbc.co.uk

The thermal runaway of EV batteries is a concern in the car industry.

Research Outcomes - UL Research Institutes

UL Research Institutes research outcomes

ul.org

Does anyone on this thread have concerns of fires with the EVs they own?

 

[Noddy]

Does anyone on this thread have concerns of fires with the EVs they own?

No more than I would worry about my ICE cars catching fire. They make an interesting story, which of course are then promoted by detractors.

 

[ainsworth74]

The Fremantle Highway has apparently caught fire due to an EV, reported by news outlets today.

Ameland rescue: Crew jump off ship ablaze with cargo of 3,000 cars

One person died as fire took hold of the ship as it burned off the Dutch island of Ameland.

www.bbc.co.uk

Yes and a cargo ship carrying cars caught fire a few weeks ago in the port of Newark New Jersey in the United States. No EVs involved:

...

Marine traffic trackers show the Italian-flagged Grande Costa d’Avorio, which was built in 2011, arrived from the Port of Baltimore several days earlier. Grimaldi Deep Sea said the fire broke out on the ship’s 10th deck as its 28 crew members and local stevedores were completing the loading of more than 1,200 new and used cars, vans and trucks bound for West Africa.

The company’s statement said the crew immediately activated on-board fire suppression procedures and the local firefighting service was alerted, triggering a prompt response that was crucial to containing and controlling the blaze. It also said that no electric cars nor hazardous cargo is on board, no fuel spills have been detected, and the stability of the ship was not been compromised.

...

(Emphasis added)

2 New Jersey firefighters died battling a blaze deep in a ship carrying 1,200 vehicles

Responding firefighters found five to seven vehicles already on fire when they reached the 10th floor of the cargo ship at Port Newark around 9:30 p.m. Wednesday.

www.fox19.com

Ships catch fire, it happens quite often. I'm not quite sure that this tells us anything useful about risks around EVs.

 

[JamesT]

Depends what you mean by ‘vast majority’. If you mean ‘rather less than half’ the I agree with you.

There are around 30m cars in the UK of which 27m are petrol/diesel. So in the next 7 years you'd need to replace at least 12m for the majority of cars to be EV. New car sales are of the order of 2m a year, so that's virtually all new car sales from now being EV to have ICE cars in the minority.
Or are you expecting a mass scrapping of the existing fleet in order that the new EV cars are the majority?

 

[The Ham]

No more than I would worry about my ICE cars catching fire. They make an interesting story, which of course are then promoted by detractors.

Indeed there's over 100,000 vehicle fires a year in the UK, EV's are probably a similar percentage as they make up in ownership rates - arguably the risk of an EV fire when involved in an accident could be lower as it doesn't discharge fuel.

 

[tomuk]

There are around 30m cars in the UK of which 27m are petrol/diesel. So in the next 7 years you'd need to replace at least 12m for the majority of cars to be EV. New car sales are of the order of 2m a year, so that's virtually all new car sales from now being EV to have ICE cars in the minority.
Or are you expecting a mass scrapping of the existing fleet in order that the new EV cars are the majority?

33 million Q4 2022
30.8 million were non hybrid Diesel or Petrol
17 million hybrids
638,000 EVs including 10,000 range extenders

 

[trebor79]

Does anyone on this thread have concerns of fires with the EVs they own?

Nope.

 

[Bald Rick]

There are around 30m cars in the UK of which 27m are petrol/diesel. So in the next 7 years you'd need to replace at least 12m for the majority of cars to be EV. New car sales are of the order of 2m a year, so that's virtually all new car sales from now being EV to have ICE cars in the minority.
Or are you expecting a mass scrapping of the existing fleet in order that the new EV cars are the majority?

Ok I’m a little out with my maths, apologies, and I was including hybrids in the ‘EV’ category. But I do expect that half of all cars sold will be EVs within a couple of years, and that by 2030 there will be 8-10m of them on the roads plus around 3-4m hybrids.

I don’t envisage a scrappage scheme, certainly not at large scale.