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Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.
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WatcherZero
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Worth pointing out though that even if Labour only achieved the minor Uxbridge swing it would be enough for them to win the next general election with a hung parliament. The swings in the other two seats were far far higher.
Certainly parts of Orpington are very rural (I am tempted to write rural-rich as not every rural area is-wealthy) not your typical London (even outer London) at all. Orpington is embedded in my brain because of probably the first national party political event I was aware of was the 1962 by-election, when it went Liberal.
Not necessarily. A significant number of Chesham and Amersham were prepared to go LibDem but I very much doubt whether they would ever go so far as electing Labour. If it had been a Labour - Conservative straight fight, I would say it would be 'No contest' (a landslide for the stay-at-homes). In Uxbridge & South Ruislip, the main opposition is Labour, the LibDems have been going backwards since 2010. The Labour share of the vote increased by a tidy amount but not enough. A clear sign that Labour have not done enough to convince the electorate that they are a realistic government-in-waiting. Unfortunately, there are some that appear to think it means they should be more radical (ie 'left-wing' Momentum type policies). As others have said before, that is for the second ministry.
Good to see Laurence Fox had a minimal impact and Reform did little better.
Bromley does have a Lidl now so there must be a fair chance that at least some of the residents are feeling the pinch.
In the Uxbridge by election Laurence Fox got, er, more votes than the Liberal Democrats (714 as opposed to 526) and there wasn't a Reform Party candidate standing.
Uxbridge is much more conveniently located geographically and accordingly is a major business centre with the UK headquarters of many large organisations.
I must admit, I didn't know that !
To be fair to Bromley, it does have very good national rail connections, with Thameslink and all.
I think that the Conservatives' opportune weaponising ULEZ was the issue here. The scheme is scheduled to be fully implemented in a few weeks. If it is carried through on time, by next year when the mayoral elections are held it will be a fact of life and on it's way to a non-issue. I doubt that Uxbridge has a Tory super-cell in it's electorate.
But will it be a fact of life and a non issue?
When the full implications of this become clear and people have to start paying £12.50 per day because their vehicle doesn't meet some arbitrary emissions standard, and they just don't have the money to replace that vehicle, they are not going to sit back quietly and accept it as fact.
Look at what has happened over so called "low traffic neighbourhoods", some of whch have had to be scrapped because of the level of opposition to them.
And who believes that the charge will stay at £12.50 for very long?
It’s 700,000 cars representing about 10% of cars in the new zones and this number will fall over time unless/until the criteria are changed. In November 2021 the estimate was 15% of cars so it’s come down significantly in under two years.
See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65057890 for my source.
I think it’s the right thing to do but then I’m not paying. Gordon Brown mainly to blame by reducing tax on diesel cars.
See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65057890 for my source.
I think it’s the right thing to do but then I’m not paying. Gordon Brown mainly to blame by reducing tax on diesel cars.
I thought it was generally accepted that the LibDems were not making much effort in Uxbridge & South Ruislip (just as Labour didn't in Somerton & Frome).
However, I should have indicated that I meant the reference to Reform to apply to the by-elections as a whole - 5th in Selby, 4th in Somerton. In both cases with just over 3% of the vote.
Liberal Democrat voters very sensibly (albeit not quite successfully) evidently chose to back the Labour candidate.
714 votes for an individual who seems to me to be very much on the right-wing fringe isn't exactly a ringing endorsement.
brad465
Veteran Member
He still didn't get his deposit back, and as was pointed out above, it's more likely Lib Dem voters there voted tactically. The reverse happened in Somerton and Frome, where the Lib Dems trounced it but Labour lost their deposit, which was definitely tactical voting (although the Greens did surprisingly well with 10% here).
The Uxbridge candidate list was one of the worst/most extreme lists going, we also saw Piers Corbyn standing for example.
DustyBin
Established Member
This (i.e. mission creep) is why it’s unlikely to become a non-issue in my opinion.
Ordinarily I’d agree, but banking is a highly regulated industry and Coutts acted improperly.
Regardless of one’s personal view of Farage, he was the victim here and was quite right to call the bank out.
birchesgreen
Established Member
According to the Times, the Tories are going to double down on transgender rights (as in getting rid) and putting the boots into migrants as their election strategy. Wow i so look forward to that. Using poor and marginalised peoples' lives for their own gain. The Tories really do deserve to be wiped out for good.
Do you have a link for this story?
Because the article is behind a paywall, we can't read what it actually says, and therefore are in no position to make a judgement on the contents of the article.
Rishi Sunak aims to divide and rule after poll setback
New focus on migrants, trans rights and crime
Oliver Wright
, Policy Editor |
Matt Dathan
, Home Affairs Editor
Saturday July 22 2023, 12.01am BST, The Times
Rishi Sunak marked Steve Tuckwell’s success in Uxbridge & South Ruislip on Friday
JORDAN PETTITT/PA
Rishi Sunak is preparing to launch a more aggressive political campaign in an attempt to shift Labour’s lead in the polls with divisive policies on crime, migrant boats and transgender rights.
The prime minister insisted that the next general election was “not a done deal” after losing two by-elections. Labour’s victory in Selby & Ainsty represented the second biggest by-election swing from the Tories since 1945.
Sunak, however, took succour from holding on to Uxbridge & South Ruislip, Boris Johnson’s former seat in west London, after the Tories succeeded in turning the campaign into an effective referendum on plans by Sadiq Khan, the capital’s Labour mayor, to charge people with more polluting cars.
The prime minister privately acknowledges that after eight months of trying to restore order within Tory ranks he needs a “change in pace, emphasis and approach”. He believes that the victory in Uxbridge demonstrates that when a “substantive issue” is at stake the Tories can win.
Sunak is expected to set out a series of divisive issues over the summer that his team will build on at the Conservative Party conference and in the King’s Speech in the autumn. “He will explain his vision for the country he wants to create,” an ally said. “It will mean tough fights, it will mean more political edge.”
Sir Keir Starmer said that voters had let out a “cry for change” but admitted the party needed to “reflect” on the unpopularity of ultra-low emission zones (Ulez), which he blamed for Labour’s unexpected loss in Uxbridge. The Tories won by 495 votes, compared with Johnson’s majority of more than 7,000.
Writing for The Times, the polling expert Sir John Curtice said the result seemed to be the “exception rather than the rule”, adding: “The message from the by-election ballot boxes was just as depressing for the [Tories] as the polls have been since the financial markets and voters took fright last autumn.”
Sir Keir Starmer celebrated his namesake Keir Mather’s win in Selby & Ainsty, North Yorkshire
IAN FORSYTH/GETTY IMAGES
In Selby & Ainsty, North Yorkshire, Labour overturned a Tory majority of 20,000 to take the seat with a swing of more than 23 percentage points. Keir Mather — who at 25 becomes the youngest MP in the Commons — received 16,456 votes, defeating the Tories’ Claire Holmes with 12,295.
In Somerton & Frome, Somerset, the Liberal Democrat Sarah Dyke won 21,187 votes, easily beating the Tory candidate Faye Purbrick’s 10,179 on a swing of 28.4 points. The Lib Dem leader, Sir Ed Davey, said the result showed that his party was once again in a strong position to win seats in its former West Country heartland.
The Conservatives are now drawing up a series of “retail” policies for a crime and justice bill that will be a central part of the King’s Speech. It is expected to include tougher sentences for anti-social behaviour, fraud, burglary and robbery. The bill will also include a long-awaited ban on machetes and so-called zombie knives and measures to compel offenders to attend sentencing hearings, following a series of big cases where killers have refused to turn up to account for their crimes.
Sunak is also planning to “weaponise” the issue of migrants in small boats as a dividing line between the Tories and Labour, even if the government fails to get flights to Rwanda going. The Supreme Court is set to rule by the end of the year on whether the policy of deporting asylum seekers is lawful.
Sir Ed Davey travelled to Somerset to toast Sarah Dyke’s victory in Somerton & Frome
BEN BIRCHALL/PA
The Tories plan to put Labour’s opposition to the Rwanda plan and tougher migration laws at the heart of its campaign. Labour says that the Tories have failed to stem soaring numbers of Channel crossings despite hardline policies by successive governments.
Sunak is also expected to put a renewed focus on transgender issues. As well as pursuing stricter guidance for schools, the government is also expected to press ahead with plans to change the Equality Act to introduce explicit protections for biological women in same-sex spaces such as changing rooms and hospital wards.
Starmer has insisted there would be “no rolling back” on women’s rights if he were prime minister but has struggled to articulate a clear trans policy. Asked whether a person with a penis could be a woman, he said: “For 99.9 per cent of women, it is completely biological.”
Starmer will address Labour’s national policy forum in Nottingham today to warn against adopting policies that frighten voters — something party sources say will have “an added resonance” after losing Uxbridge.
Sunak faced calls from the right of his party to respond to the by-elections by moving away from green policies.
The former Brexit secretary Lord Frost said Uxbridge showed “just how unpopular . . . net-zero policies can be”, adding that to win the next election Sunak should “junk” them.
birchesgreen
Established Member
Positive hopeful policies yay.
DustyBin
Established Member
Whilst I’m not keen on the deliberate “weaponising” of emotive issues, clearly the Tories believe they’re in tune with popular opinion. They may be wrong of course!
Personally, I would argue that the protection of women’s rights is actually very positive, and I expect most voters would agree.
birchesgreen
Established Member
Its how they'll spin it, if they are going for divide and rule then i can't seem them being very nice to some folks.
So the article says that
but it also says
So there is nothing in the article which actually says what the Conservatives propose to do on these issues, which are undoubtedly divisive.
But until you hear what is actually said at the Conservative Party Conference, and in the Kings Speech (7th November) you won't be in a position to judge whether they are "getting rid" of transgender rights, or "putting the boot into migrants".
but it also says
So there is nothing in the article which actually says what the Conservatives propose to do on these issues, which are undoubtedly divisive.
But until you hear what is actually said at the Conservative Party Conference, and in the Kings Speech (7th November) you won't be in a position to judge whether they are "getting rid" of transgender rights, or "putting the boot into migrants".
DustyBin
Established Member
I think we need to wait and see; based on the article it sounds potentially unpleasant, but that itself could just be media spin.
The last thing any of us need are more “culture wars” and/or deliberate division IMO.
The proposed amendment to the Equality Act basically removes the ability to transition as it states that you will always be treated as your birth sex. So even if you’ve been living as a transwomen for 10 years and are post-op, you’ll be put in the men’s ward in hospital. And you cannot use the toilet at your workplace that corresponds to your post op gender. It’s divisive and wrong. People’s basic rights should not be on the ballot or used to whip up hatred and votes.
The country’s infrastructure is crumbling, public services do not work, and people cannot afford their mortgage - yet this seems to be the governments priority. It’s utterly insane.
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DustyBin
Established Member
Personally I believe the bar for transitioning should be set extremely high; basically the post-op stage and nothing less. If the amendment seeks to remove the ability to transition altogether however, I couldn’t support it as that feels wrong.
True, but none of these problems are fixable in the short term, hence prioritising issues such as the above. I’m not attempting to defend the government here incidentally, far from it in fact, but unfortunately I think that’s the reality.
The problem is the current trans law creates a catch 22 - you need to live as the opposite gender for 2 years before being eligible for surgery. So a trans person has to use the opposite gender toilets despite having not physically had surgery. Most other European states have reduced that requirement to 6 months and 2 or 3 approvals from different psychiatrists - once you’ve done that, you can either get the surgery if self funding, or join the queue for the state healthcare system doing it. It’s a very complex problem that should sit outside cheap electoral soundbites and posturing.
Generally, as a member of the LGBT community, attacks on trans make me very uncomfortable - as shown in Florida, once trans people are othered, LGB tends to be next - as shown by bans on drag and the banning of any LGBT education in schools (section 28 has basically been brought back in Florida). In the U.K., I assumed that social rights were a done deal and the focus should be on growing the economy and improving public services. Sunak seems to be reopening that settlement, and that makes me very uneasy.
317 forever
Established Member
As it is, I don't think the public were crying out for radical change in 1997, just government under new management.
In the event Labour were able to introduce quite a few changes, many not costing much, as Tony Blair was all too happy to detail to Sophy Ridge last Sunday.
As it is, I don't think the public were crying out for radical change in 1997, just government under new management.
In the event Labour were able to introduce quite a few changes, many not costing much, as Tony Blair was all too happy to detail to Sophy Ridge last Sunday.
Blair and Brown used the prosperity of the 90s to create 600,000 public sector jobs, and their associated pensions. I’d say that was quite a radical and expensive change…
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