Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party.

[DustyBin]

These are usually older vehicles, owned by people who are less well off. Did you but a diesel under Gordon Browns scrappage scheme, to support the economy and fight climate change? Well now a Labour mayor wants to force you to buy a new car, incurring the climate costs for all the manufacturing processes, in the time of significant uncertainty and a cost of living crisis.

It still amazes me that so many people fell for it to be honest. I worked in a relevant field at the time, and my colleagues and I were incredulous at the claims being made in regard to the environmental benefits. Of course, any dissenters were labelled cranks etc. and yet here we are……

 

[Busaholic]

I think the Tories will lose all three by elections tomorrow. Having said that I can see the Tories holding up relatively well in Uxbridge and S Ruislip and maybe restricting the Labour win to only 5% or so.

Mt predictions:

Somerton and Frome

LD 55%
Con 30%

Selby and Ainsty

Lab 43%
Con 39%

Uxbridge and S Ruislip:

Lab 47%
Con 41%

I'd agree roughly with your first two predictions, but I'm by no means so sure about Uxbridge, which might go to a recount or two imo. I fervently hope the Cons candidate loses out big time, but.... Definitely a case for P.R. in this instance at least.

 

[Gloster]

Selby & Ainsty sometime after 03.00, Uxbridge & South Ruislip a bit later. However, if it is close then recounts might extend the count. The number of of candidates in the latter, Count Binface et al., are a delaying factor.

I don’t know about Somerton & Frome but it is possible that they won’t count until tomorrow.

 

[Busaholic]

Dawn may well have broken long before all three results are known.

 

[ainsworth74]

Well now a Labour mayor wants to force you to buy a new car, incurring the climate costs for all the manufacturing processes, in the time of significant uncertainty and a cost of living crisis.

I mean I'm not disputing that if you own one of those diesel cars it's a problem but there's plenty of older petrol cars on the road that are ULEZ compliant. My mum's 2010 Astra (bought for £2,000 a few weeks ago) is compliant. My 2008 Fiesta (bought for £1,000 back in 2017) is also compliant. So whilst such people might need to a by a car that is new to them, there's no need to buy a brand new car and indeed any petrol vehicle registered since around 2005 is likely to be compliant.

 

[WatcherZero]

Results expected soon
Uxbridge close and going to a recount, The Ultra Low Emission Zone has reportedly eaten into Labours vote. Boris previously had a 7,000 majority.
Somerton and Frome overwhelmingly taken by Lib Dems
Selby and Ainsty looks like its gone Labour, overturning a Conservative majority of 20,137, the largest by-election win since WW2 and over 5,500 higher than the previous record overturned majority.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Jul 2023 ==


2:45
Conservatives indeed won Uxbridge, majority of 5,034 reduced to 495.
2:50
Lib Dems win Somerton and Frome, Conservative majority of 19,213 becomes a Lib Dem majority of 11,009 with Lib Dems picking up 6,000 while Conservatives lost 25,000 votes.

 

[Thirteen]

Results expected soon
Uxbridge close and going to a recount, The Ultra Low Emission Zone has reportedly eaten into Labours vote. Boris previously had a 7,000 majority.
Somerton and Frome overwhelmingly taken by Lib Dems
Selby and Ainsty looks like its gone Labour, overturning a Conservative majority of 20,137, the largest by-election win since WW2 and over 5,500 higher than the previous record overturned majority.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Jul 2023 ==


2:45
Conservatives indeed won Uxbridge, majority of 5,034 reduced to 495.

That margin of error does suggest that Labour could potentially win it in an actual General Election. It does make me wonder if ULEZ could be a deciding factor for the Mayoral election.

 

[WatcherZero]

Indeed crowded field, 17 candidates with the independents and minor parties sharing around 1,000 votes.

4:10 Labour indeed won Selby with a 4,161 majority!

 

[yorksrob]

I can't describe the Uxbridge result as anything other than a massive disappointment.

But as I said upthread, it's traditional wealth afterall.

 

[Gloster]

I suspect that in certain parts of the media we will only heat about how Rishi’s brilliiance was endorsed by the electorate of Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and how Khan should abandon the ULEZ and resign immediately. The rather more decisive results in the other two will just be dismissed as irrelevant and not indicative of anything.

 

[dgl]

Wasn't the ULEZ expansion a condition of TFL getting more government cash and as such not going bust?, effectively the Tories campaigning on an issue that is their fault.
Also given their previous MP did naff all it would seem a bit pointless voting someone in because they are against the ULEZ expansion given history dictates that they'll do nothing about it, sends some sort of message I suppose.

 

[duncanp]

I suspect that in certain parts of the media we will only heat about how Rishi’s brilliiance was endorsed by the electorate of Uxbridge & South Ruislip, and how Khan should abandon the ULEZ and resign immediately. The rather more decisive results in the other two will just be dismissed as irrelevant and not indicative of anything.

It is quite clear that ULEZ was a decisive factor in the Uxbridge result, and could well affect the result of the next London Mayoral election, given that the Conservatives have now selected a reasonably moderate candidate, and the financial implications of ULEZ will have kicked in by the next election.

Other than that, it was a bad night for the Conservatives, but it doesn't necessarily mean that swings of those magnitude will be seen more widely at the general election, which could still be more than a year away.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

That margin of error does suggest that Labour could potentially win it in an actual General Election. It does make me wonder if ULEZ could be a deciding factor for the Mayoral election.

Unlikely. In 2019, despite the Conservatives massively winning the general election, in London Labour got 48.1% of the vote to the Tories' 32.0%. (Source). In Uxbridge yesterday, even despite ULEZ, Labour's vote rose by 6.0% and the Tories fell by 7.4% compared to that general election. That still puts Labour on course to win massively in London overall (plus, ULEZ isn't going to be much of an issue in central London)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Jul 2023 ==

Other than that, it was a bad night for the Conservatives, but it doesn't necessarily mean that swings of those magnitude will be seen more widely at the general election, which could still be more than a year away.

It has crossed my mind that it's not implausible that next general election could reverse both Selby and Uxbridge - with the Conservatives standing a good chance of retaking Selby and Labour standing a good chance of picking up Uxbridge. I think Somerton and Frome is now safe for the LibDems for the time being. Not sure what impact boundary changes would have on that analysis though.

 

[dangie]

Greg Hands, the Tory chairman, speaking to BBC Breakfast says the result in Selby and Ainsty (won by Labour) was caused by "Conservative voters staying at home".

Very perceptive…….

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Greg Hands, the Tory chairman, speaking to BBC Breakfast says the result in Selby and Ainsty (won by Labour) was caused by "Conservative voters staying at home".

Very perceptive…….

I think that's making excuses and is not entirely correct on Greg Hands' part.

In 2019, 55418 people voted in Selby and Ainsty. 21423 of those people voted for a party other than the Conservatives.
Yesterday, on a lower turnout, 35886 people bothered to vote. 23591 of those people voted for a party other than the Conservatives.

So the total votes for non-Conservatives increased by over 2000 - despite that we know that some of the 21423 non-Tory voters from 2019 will have stayed at home yeseterday in the general lower turnout. The increase in non-Tory numbers can only have come from Tory voters switching. It's therefore clear that a lot of people must have voted Conservative in 2019 and for some other party yesterday:

 

[Kite159]

Hopefully that youngster who won in Selby can do some work for the local area rather than being someone an MP who only can talk the talk and spends most of their time in London [similar to all parties]

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Lots of evidence of tactical anti-Tory voting amongst Labour and LibDem voters: Labour came 5th in Somerton and Frome with just 2.6% of the vote, while the LibDems came 6th (!) in Selby and Ainsty (3.3%) and 5th in Uxbridge and Ruislip (1.7%). I don't believe the 'real' support for either party in any of those constituencies is anywhere near so low.

 

[duncanp]

It has crossed my mind that it's not implausible that next general election could reverse both Selby and Uxbridge - with the Conservatives standing a good chance of retaking Selby and Labour standing a good chance of picking up Uxbridge. I think Somerton and Frome is now safe for the LibDems for the time being. Not sure what impact boundary changes would have on that analysis though.

A lot depends on what happens over the next nine months.

If inflation and interest rates come down, and there is an improvement in the overall economic outlook, the next general election result could be the reverse of 1992 or 2015, in that Labour win but with a smallish majority, or even like 2010, where they have to form a coalition.

The undoubted opposition to ULEZ which affected the Uxbridge result should give politicians of all parties food for thought.

What would Labour do with regard to similar schemes, such as that which already exists in Birmingham, were it to win power at the next election?

In London, the next mayoral election is on May 2nd 2024, and it is not implausible that Rishi Sunak could wait until that result is known, as well as the other local elections due on that date, before deciding when the next general election should be held.

 

[ainsworth74]

Amazing that Labour won Selby with a Londoner who was parachuted in who had probably never heard or even visited the place until a few months ago. No doubt he will be a MP who will be missing in action for the local area, far too busy in London.

What are you wittering on about? He was born in Hull and grew up near Selby. In what way is he a "Londoner" who had "probably never heard of the place"?

You need to put down the anti-Labour goggles from time to time. It does you no credit to come out mad statements like that.

 

[dangie]

Amazing that Labour won Selby with a Londoner who was parachuted in who had probably never heard or even visited the place until a few months ago. No doubt he will be a MP who will be missing in action for the local area, far too busy in London.

He can talk the talk, but can he actually do the work for the local area?

I admit that during my 50+ years of voting I’ve been a floating voter. My first consideration when choosing a candidate to vote for is where do they live. If they are an outsider with no history connecting them with the area then they go to the bottom of the list. In fact they aren’t even on my list.

 

[Purple Train]

Amazing that Labour won Selby with a Londoner who was parachuted in who had probably never heard or even visited the place until a few months ago. No doubt he will be a MP who will be missing in action for the local area, far too busy in London.

He can talk the talk, but can he actually do the work for the local area?

I'd have thought someone like you, who has done sterling work, and is extremely well-respected, in the Trip Reports section, would have a better grasp of geography. Keir Mather may live in London now, but was brought up in Brough, and his accent isn't strongly local, but still perceptively so. You may also have forgotten that he is only 25, so "growing up in Brough" doesn't mean he hasn't lived there for 30 years!

 

[jfollows]

Lots of evidence of tactical anti-Tory voting amongst Labour and LibDem voters: Labour came 5th in Somerton and Frome with just 2.6% of the vote, while the LibDems came 6th (!) in Selby and Ainsty (3.3%) and 5th in Uxbridge and Ruislip (1.7%). I don't believe the 'real' support for either party in any of those constituencies is anywhere near so low.

I understand what you're saying, and you're not wrong, but I'm not entirely sure that 'real' support is going to be relevant now and in the near future.
I mean, clearly, the by-election votes were against Conservatives rather than for their opposition in the main. But Polly Toynbee thinks (https://www.theguardian.com/comment...avey-joy-starmer-our-panel-byelection-results) that

People vote in byelections against a government they hate, but in general elections they only ever choose the party they most trust to run the economy.

I'm not convinced, but she often doesn't convince me.
I voted against the Conservatives in 2019, but many people clearly didn't, so what matters is what many of them do in the next election. And I feel that many of them will be voting against the Conservatives, rather than voting for their 'real' parties. I think we're in a 1997 position again, for which I've said that nobody sensible voted Conservative then, the party had shown itself unworthy of being voted for, and I think we're there again. Of course, that's an exaggeration, but I still don't think that people will vote for the party they trust most, they'll be voting against the party they trust least. In general.

 

[ainsworth74]

My first consideration when choosing a candidate to vote for is where do they live. If they are an outsider with no history connecting them with the area then they go to the bottom of the list. In fact they aren’t even on my list.

Whilst I wouldn't swear to where Mr Mather lives you can at least take heart that he was born in Hull and grew up in Brough so has plenty of history connecting him to the area.

 

[Gloster]

Somewhere I read (long ago) that in general elections people tend to vote against the government as they usually feel that they have been let down by it, but they will only do so if they trust the main alternative. They don’t have to think that the alternative will be better, but they do need to feel that they are at least to be trusted. Witness the effect of the papers piling on Foot, Kinnock and Corbyn; Blair managed to avoid that.

(Spellcheck: you still haven’t told me what a Corbun is.)

 

[nw1]

I can't describe the Uxbridge result as anything other than a massive disappointment.

But as I said upthread, it's traditional wealth afterall.

I am truly amazed that Labour can win rural Selby and not somewhere in London!

Uxbridge is clearly very politically at odds with the rest of the city. And it appears to be further to the right than nearby, rural, Chesham and Amersham which is quite astonishing.

Very, very disappointing, I hope this isn't a sign that the Tories are going to win yet again in 2024, and we're stuck with the same old mix of austerity and right-wing populism for the rest of this decade.

I'd have preferred the Tories to hold Selby to be honest. At least that could have been explained away by an entirely predictable hold in their heartlands.

 

[yorksrob]

I am truly amazed that Labour can win rural Selby and not somewhere in London!

Uxbridge is clearly very politically at odds with the rest of the city. And it appears to be further to the right than nearby, rural, Chesham and Amersham which is quite astonishing.

Very, very disappointing, I hope this isn't a sign that the Tories are going to win yet again in 2024, and we're stuck with the same old mix of austerity and right-wing populism for the rest of this decade.

I'd have preferred the Tories to hold Selby to be honest. At least that could have been explained away by an entirely predictable hold in their heartlands.

Selby itself strikes me as quite working class rural. The constituency also contains Tadcaster, which has a good brewing tradition

I always imagined Uxbridge to be a watered down version of Bromley.

 

[Typhoon]

Whilst I wouldn't swear to where Mr Mather lives you can at least take heart that he was born in Hull and grew up in Brough so has plenty of history connecting him to the area.

He does live somewhere in London probably because he worked for the CBI. Like many, probably some Forum members, he would have had to relocate for work - I don't know for certain but I guess the CBI has a wide choice of graduate applicants and is considered a desirable employer, so, to get a job with them is a coup and you live where they are, not the other way around. I am sure I am not alone in knowing as much (if not more) about the town I was born and brought up in as I do about the place where I spent my entire working life. I believe that smaller communities leave more of a mark on people than larger ones. Since Mather has been away from his home town for a comparative short period and in two different environments, Brough will still be very much part of him. Having someone who worked for the CBI in its ranks will also be useful for Labour. I believe his mother still has links to, and may still live in the area.

Mr Mather has previously worked as a parliamentary researcher for shadow health secretary Wes Streeting, and more recently as a senior public affairs adviser at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66265494

I have also found evidence of his activity with the CBI (a regional meeting, in Sheffield)

Join us for exclusive insights and to stay up-to-date with the latest political developments as we are joined by Tom Barrett and Keir Mather from the CBI’s Public Affairs Team for an in-person CBI Government Affairs Update.

We will discuss the biggest issues of the day under Chatham House Rule, providing you with an assessment of the UK political landscape following the new Prime Minister’s election. We will assess the impact for business and highlight the CBI’s campaigning priorities as we build from the Chancellors ‘mini’ Budget. You will also hear exclusive CBI insights from our engagement with government.

https://www.cbi.org.uk/events/government-affairs-network-104759/
Included because of Johnny Mercer's petty statement

“I think it’s always good to get new people in politics. I think we mustn't become a repeat of The Inbetweeners, you have got to have people who have done stuff."

In case he hasn't realised it, politics - government and opposition benches - are full of people who have 'done stuff' such as parliamentary researcher. managing an MPs office, PR, Special Advisor and little else. I wish more had 'done stuff', real stuff, but until he has persuaded his side of the Chamber to sharpen their ideas up, he should restrict the criticism. He could start by looking at the Deputy PM's CV.

 

[edwin_m]

He does live somewhere in London probably because he worked for the CBI.

Considering the issues that institution has, finding something else to do could be a good career move.

 

[nw1]

Are they? Or are they just saying they are? Many of the "free speech" lot on the right seem to be more like "free speech as long as it is what I like".

Indeed, Cruella is the prime example of that. Lee Anderson and Gullis as well.

Those three I would certainly consider authoritarians who have little tolerance for those who disagree with them - Braverman in particular.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 21 Jul 2023 ==

Selby itself strikes me as quite working class rural. The constituency also contains Tadcaster, which has a good brewing tradition

Fair enough, I will admit I have not visited Selby itself - but the location looks rural.

I always imagined Uxbridge to be a watered down version of Bromley.

There does seem to be a discontinuous ring of constituencies round the edge of London which seem to be at least as, perhaps more, true-blue than some of the Home Counties constituencies further out, for whatever reason. Starting in the NW we have Uxbridge, then Chingford and Woodford Green (Duncan Smith), Romford (Rosindell), Old Bexley, Orpington, Bromley and Croydon South. AFAIK none of these went Labour, except Romford briefly from 1997-2001.

Is it a fair comment, I wonder, that none of these will thus flip Labour? Perhaps the ULEZ thing will help them stay Tory?

 

[WelshBluebird]

am truly amazed that Labour can win rural Selby and not somewhere in London!

Uxbridge is clearly very politically at odds with the rest of the city. And it appears to be further to the right than nearby, rural, Chesham and Amersham which is quite astonishing.

Its a constituency that has been Tory for ages if you take its predecessor too. The last time Labour won it was in the 60's. Even Blair couldn't turn it red. Based on that I really don't think it should be used as an indicator of anything really. Not the ULEZ stuff and certainly not the next general election.