The reason very few risk court is because the small number of people actually reported for prosecution are overwhelmingly as guilty as sin.
Small number of people actually reported for prosecution? Pull the other leg. Tens of thousands of people are prosecuted by the railways each year. Many more, possibly even into the seven figures, are threatened with it. The railway is one of the biggest prosecutors in the country, by case numbers.
In any event the power differential is enormous. It's no skin off the TOC's nose whether they prosecute one case more or less - the same staff will be working the same hours either way, and it's just one case on a long list. They'll be able to claim back their costs, win or lose.
By contrast, for someone to effectively defend themselves, they would have to take time off work, pay hundreds of pounds for a solicitor and hope that the Magistrates don't just rubber-stamp the conviction. And even if they win, they might not be able to recover their legal costs fully or at all.
So to claim that people are choosing to pay a settlement
solely because they're guilty is missing the point. It is likely the cheapest option whether they are guilty or not!
The railway is funded by fare payers and taxpayers, and loses a cool quarter of a billion annually through evasion, so it’s desirable that money is recouped from malfeasors, whether that’s by penalty fares or settlements. It’s notable that people on here who moan about TOCs’ efforts to combat fare evasion are also quick to criticise fare rises, and don’t seem to have any answer as to who should cover the cost.
You can't argue it both ways - that it's OK that few people are
actually wrongly prosecuted because 95% of people agree to a settlement under the extreme duress that the railway exerts. It would be ludicrous to suggest that "muggings aren't a big problem as they rarely lead to injuries"; that's only the case because 95% of victims cooperate with the attacker!
Why is it that most guards cannot issue penalty fares? I’d support a change to enable guards’ reports to lead to penalty fares, but I don’t know that I can see the difference in time or potential for dispute/disruption between reporting someone and issuing a penalty fare.
It's the perception that issuing Penalty Fares would lead to too much abuse and anti-social behaviour. The thing is that guards issue Penalty Fare equivalents in other countries all day long, so why should we be so different? I am unconvinced that passenger behaviour is so much worse here that it couldn't be done. It's a matter of inertia and "this is how it's always been done".