Russia invades Ukraine

[DelW]

Surely this Wagner bloke has got to be off'd - you cant be Capo dei capi like Putin and let one of the smaller capo get uppity. This Prigozhin might be sleeping with the fishes shortly.

Accidentally falling out of the window of a tall building seems to happen surprisingly frequently to Putin's enemies.

 

[DarloRich]

Accidentally falling out of the window of a tall building seems to happen surprisingly frequently to Putin's enemies.

Putin makes offers of gravity that cant be refused!

 

[yorksrob]

Such sabre-rattling could be disastrous for all of us, don't you think?

THC

If we let them get on with it without consequence, we will all pay. We have given them several inches and they are taking ever more miles.

We have failed to contain Russia and the consequences for Europe have already been disastrous.

 

[DustyBin]

Such sabre-rattling could be disastrous for all of us, don't you think?

THC

Absolutely, and I opposed the no-fly zone nonsense for the same reason. The West has, by and large, handled this situation very well. Russia has been well and truly thwarted and yet can’t (legitimately) claim that it’s at war with the West or NATO. What we don’t need are Western leaders lowering themselves to Putin’s level.

Surely this Wagner bloke has got to be off'd - you cant be Capo dei capi like Putin and let one of the smaller capo get uppity. This Prigozhin might be sleeping with the fishes shortly.

I wouldn’t even try to predict what’s going to happen next, but the whole situation feels very “off”. I just can’t see how this has been sorted out so easily (by Lukashenko of all people). But then you just never know with this lot…

 

[ainsworth74]

If we let them get on with it without consequence, we will all pay. We have given them several inches and they are taking ever more miles.

We have failed to contain Russia and the consequences for Europe have already been disastrous.

We have to do precisely nothing with our nuclear weapons for the simple reason it achieves nothing of benefit. Russia is utterly reliant on their nuclear weapons to instill fear because they don't have any other way of doing so. Even before Ukraine if they'd really ever come West we'd have beaten them with conventional forces. Now it wouldn't even been a fight.

Rattling our nuclear saber just makes us look silly and belligerent.

The correct response is to reinforce NATOs conventional forces (we'd win but let's not leave room for any doubt that we'd win), rebuild the industrial capacity to make munitions and then send as many munitions and weapons to Ukraine as possible. Of all types.

You do not need to reach for the nuclear stick to achieve our objectives and indeed they're counter productive.

 

[AlterEgo]

No need for nuclear willy-waving and indeed that would be counterproductive.

There is a familiar saying: "Do not interrupt when your enemy is making a mistake".

The strategy should be to sit, wait, and observe while being mindful that the events could be used as a pretext for a number of things.

 

[DarloRich]

Time for the West to be flexing its nuclear muscles anyway !

"speak softly and carry a big stick" - We have the stick. They know we have the stick. We don't need to wave the stick around. Only a the weak need to show the stick all the time.

Somewhere out there is a Vanguard class submarine armed with up to 16 UGM-133 Trident II missiles. That is more than enough stick.................................

 

[Parjon]

Think it's about time we went all in on defence rather than holding these weapons ourselves.

Those who threaten us don't care about their own people and also have mentally unbalanced beliefs about what would happen if they did. Apocalypse is the only outcome.

Ensure we can shoot them out of the sky, detect rogue portable weapons, and have enhanced capabilities such as the ability to nullify ships and submarines.

Couple this with crack squad teams positioned throughout the world whose sole mission is to survive and enact total revenge on any individuals who have used nuclear weapons.

If Putin knew that even if he survived in his bunker that he and those he cared about (if there is anyone) would live only terrible traumatic lives afterwards, that may be the only defence worth having.

 

[gingerheid]

Think it's about time we went all in on defence rather than holding these weapons ourselves.

Those who threaten us don't care about their own people and also have mentally unbalanced beliefs about what would happen if they did. Apocalypse is the only outcome.

Ensure we can shoot them out of the sky, detect rogue portable weapons, and have enhanced capabilities such as the ability to nullify ships and submarines.

Couple this with crack squad teams positioned throughout the world whose sole mission is to survive and enact total revenge on any individuals who have used nuclear weapons.

If Putin knew that even if he survived in his bunker that he and those he cared about (if there is anyone) would live only terrible traumatic lives afterwards, that may be the only defence worth having.

It's sad that we need nukes, but we do, and one of the things that we learnt since Feb 22 is that we definitely do.

Defence alone just means that they can try and do something, and either they win or they get off with having tried. They need to know there's the possibility of something much worse.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jun 2023 ==

Absolutely, and I opposed the no-fly zone nonsense for the same reason. The West has, by and large, handled this situation very well. Russia has been well and truly thwarted and yet can’t (legitimately) claim that it’s at war with the West or NATO. What we don’t need are Western leaders lowering themselves to Putin’s level.

I agree. It's unfortunate they didn't take out their NATO insurance before suffering an event that they could have claimed for, but they had their reasons for not doing so and therefore that's the position we're in. We've done everything that was in our interests, and that could reasonably be asked of us. And we're also beefing up the protection we give NATO members now we know more about the risks they face.

 

[DarloRich]

Think it's about time we went all in on defence rather than holding these weapons ourselves.

Those who threaten us don't care about their own people and also have mentally unbalanced beliefs about what would happen if they did. Apocalypse is the only outcome.

Ensure we can shoot them out of the sky, detect rogue portable weapons, and have enhanced capabilities such as the ability to nullify ships and submarines.

Couple this with crack squad teams positioned throughout the world whose sole mission is to survive and enact total revenge on any individuals who have used nuclear weapons.

If Putin knew that even if he survived in his bunker that he and those he cared about (if there is anyone) would live only terrible traumatic lives afterwards, that may be the only defence worth having.

this is naïve in the extreme

 

[ainsworth74]

Think it's about time we went all in on defence rather than holding these weapons ourselves.

You think people haven't thought of this before?

Those who threaten us don't care about their own people and also have mentally unbalanced beliefs about what would happen if they did. Apocalypse is the only outcome.

Putin and his ilk don't have a death wish even if they don't care about their people. They also don't want to rule over nuclear cinders. It rather defeats the purpose of being a dictator.

Ensure we can shoot them out of the sky

Which is extraordinarily difficult. Especially once you're dealing with hundreds of independent warheads and thousands of penetration aids. The number of interceptors required increases almost exponentially compared to the number of warheads you have to destroy. This all assumes that you have a system that can reliably intercept ballistic targets of course. Again, do you seriously think people haven't thought of this before?

detect rogue portable weapons

I look forward to the delays at the points of entry to the UK as you conduct radiological screening of every container being unloaded, every cargo pallet taken off an aircraft, every lorry exiting a ferry.

and have enhanced capabilities such as the ability to nullify ships and submarines.

What on earth do you think the point of a navies are? That's quite literally one of their primary missions...

Couple this with crack squad teams positioned throughout the world whose sole mission is to survive and enact total revenge on any individuals who have used nuclear weapons.

If Putin knew that even if he survived in his bunker that he and those he cared about (if there is anyone) would live only terrible traumatic lives afterwards, that may be the only defence worth having.

Putin already knows he's dead in a nuclear exchange. There is no bunker yet built that cannot be dug out by nuclear ground bursts. There's a reason why the US Strategic Air Command flew an airborne command post 24/7 during the Cold War (and why the US still maintains aircraft capable of fulfilling the mission) despite having extensive bunker facilities at places like Cheyenne Mountain and Offutt Air Force Base. It's because they know that all those facilities are going to be radioactive holes in the ground shortly after the start of nuclear hostilities.

That's quite apart from the fact that these "crack squad teams" would represent the invasion of Russia and the start of a war by the the US/NATO.

 

[GS250]

Nodoby, absolutely nobody wants a nuclear war. Least not World leaders and the ultra rich and influential. They can hide away for a few months in their bunkers or on their yachts.....but their wealth is gone, their means of creating wealth is gone, their ecosystem is probably gone for 25 years at least.

 

[Jozhua]

We have to do precisely nothing with our nuclear weapons for the simple reason it achieves nothing of benefit. Russia is utterly reliant on their nuclear weapons to instill fear because they don't have any other way of doing so. Even before Ukraine if they'd really ever come West we'd have beaten them with conventional forces. Now it wouldn't even been a fight.

Rattling our nuclear saber just makes us look silly and belligerent.

The correct response is to reinforce NATOs conventional forces (we'd win but let's not leave room for any doubt that we'd win), rebuild the industrial capacity to make munitions and then send as many munitions and weapons to Ukraine as possible. Of all types.

You do not need to reach for the nuclear stick to achieve our objectives and indeed they're counter productive.

I'd agree with this - Artillery is an area we should do much better on in terms of provision for Ukraine. Weirdly it's been a lot of the simpler 'cheaper', defensive stuff that has come in so handy.

Think it's about time we went all in on defence rather than holding these weapons ourselves.

Those who threaten us don't care about their own people and also have mentally unbalanced beliefs about what would happen if they did. Apocalypse is the only outcome.

Ensure we can shoot them out of the sky, detect rogue portable weapons, and have enhanced capabilities such as the ability to nullify ships and submarines.

Couple this with crack squad teams positioned throughout the world whose sole mission is to survive and enact total revenge on any individuals who have used nuclear weapons.

If Putin knew that even if he survived in his bunker that he and those he cared about (if there is anyone) would live only terrible traumatic lives afterwards, that may be the only defence worth having.

Reagan thought along similar lines in the 80s. We do have anti ballistic missiles, but then multiple re-entry vehicles were introduced to make this even more of a challenge.

Nuclear war is game over - there is no win for anybody involved. It creates a deadlock and some wierd as hell dynamics when it comes to dealing with any conflict.

 

[yorksrob]

We have to do precisely nothing with our nuclear weapons for the simple reason it achieves nothing of benefit. Russia is utterly reliant on their nuclear weapons to instill fear because they don't have any other way of doing so. Even before Ukraine if they'd really ever come West we'd have beaten them with conventional forces. Now it wouldn't even been a fight.

Rattling our nuclear saber just makes us look silly and belligerent.

The correct response is to reinforce NATOs conventional forces (we'd win but let's not leave room for any doubt that we'd win), rebuild the industrial capacity to make munitions and then send as many munitions and weapons to Ukraine as possible. Of all types.

You do not need to reach for the nuclear stick to achieve our objectives and indeed they're counter productive.

You're correct, I was speaking nonsense.

Better to keep arming Ukraine. Russia knows what the West has in its armouries anyway.

It's more about letting them know that they won't get away with using theirs.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jun 2023 ==

"speak softly and carry a big stick" - We have the stick. They know we have the stick. We don't need to wave the stick around. Only a the weak need to show the stick all the time.

Somewhere out there is a Vanguard class submarine armed with up to 16 UGM-133 Trident II missiles. That is more than enough stick.................................

Good point.

 

[adc82140]

I know the film "Independence Day" is extremely fanciful sci-fi, but it does make you think. If we rid the world of nuclear weapons, it rids us of the ultimate insurance policy. There's more chance of me winning the lottery every week than having an alien invasion, but nuclear arms would probably be our only means of defence. Yes, we need to be rid of the low yield "tactical" variety, but the rest should be available with each country fully signed up to a "no first use" treaty. The way China handles it's arms would be a good starting point. Dismantled, but usable.

 

[Bantamzen]

"Come to Belarus Yevgeny, we got your back...."

I would be amazed if Prigozhin actually goes there, he has literally been "sent for". He'll know it will lead to him being ghosted sooner rather than later. But at least a very dangerous lunatic has been kept away from the big red button. I dread to think where events would have gone had he got into the Kremlin. And now without the Wagner Group, Putin is now in a much weaker position. I can't imagine him accepting any invitations to cocktails and nibbles any time soon.

 

[edwin_m]

Accidentally falling out of the window of a tall building seems to happen surprisingly frequently to Putin's enemies.

Will the accommodation Lukashenko offers be a bungalow or a penthouse?

"Come to Belarus Yevgeny, we got your back...."

I would be amazed if Prigozhin actually goes there, he has literally been "sent for". He'll know it will lead to him being ghosted sooner rather than later. But at least a very dangerous lunatic has been kept away from the big red button. I dread to think where events would have gone had he got into the Kremlin. And now without the Wagner Group, Putin is now in a much weaker position. I can't imagine him accepting any invitations to cocktails and nibbles any time soon.

It's hard to see where else he could go. Russia's obviously out of the question, Putin's other recent allies are backing away, and most Western-orientated countries would quite rightly see him as someone to be put on trial (surprised the ICC hasn't gone after him yet). I guess Dubai might be a possibility - not too choosy about who they let in, as long as they have money.

 

[Bantamzen]

It's hard to see where else he could go. Russia's obviously out of the question, Putin's other recent allies are backing away, and most Western-orientated countries would quite rightly see him as someone to be put on trial (surprised the ICC hasn't gone after him yet). I guess Dubai might be a possibility - not too choosy about who they let in, as long as they have money.

I'm sure someone with his skillset, money and allies will easily find work elsewhere in the world if he's allowed to get out of Russia.

 

[DustyBin]

"Come to Belarus Yevgeny, we got your back...."

I would be amazed if Prigozhin actually goes there, he has literally been "sent for". He'll know it will lead to him being ghosted sooner rather than later. But at least a very dangerous lunatic has been kept away from the big red button. I dread to think where events would have gone had he got into the Kremlin. And now without the Wagner Group, Putin is now in a much weaker position. I can't imagine him accepting any invitations to cocktails and nibbles any time soon.

I agree; for Prigozhin at least this probably isn’t over.

I was going to post something similar to what I’ve bolded. Whilst the whole episode had “popcorn value”, and as much as we’d all like to see Putin fall, this had the potential to end very badly.

In the event, if it results in a weakened front line in Ukraine and more Russians questioning the sense of it all, it’s not a bad outcome in my opinion.

 

[Bluejays]

While I imagine life ahead looks pretty bleak for him, there may be a sliver of hope for his survival I suppose. Lukashenko may well find it very useful to have him, especially if he takes some Wagner troops with him over the next few months.

Lukashenko was kind of stuck as Putin's lacky I suppose, so in debt to Putin and so reliant on him that he had virtually no autonomy. Maybe he thinks that a grateful prighozin and the potential army he can bring can help to keep him in control over Belarus without having to bow down to vlad everytime the going gets tough.

More likely that prighozin has a nast accident soon though

 

[takno]

Will the accommodation Lukashenko offers be a bungalow or a penthouse?

A bungalow seems unlikely. The windows are so low - you could fall out and you wouldn't even die

 

[nlogax]

I don't imagine Prigozhin will want to stay in Belarus for long. Lukashenko will inevitably have an 'understanding' with Putin that something will..happen to him.

 

[Loppylugs]

More likely that prighozin has a nast accident soon though

Oh dear Yevgeney. After being Putin's favourite chef you've now chickened out and will soon be minskmeat.

 

[GS250]

He'll end up in Kensington like most other wealthy undesirables.

 

[Annetts key]

Will the Wagner forces (or some of them) be going with Prigozhin to Belarus? And for how long?

If Prigozhin is concerned for his life, I can see at least some of his forces going with him.

The next question, is, what happens to the remaining Wagner forces?

 

[m79900]

Nodoby, absolutely nobody wants a nuclear war. Least not World leaders and the ultra rich and influential. They can hide away for a few months in their bunkers or on their yachts.....but their wealth is gone, their means of creating wealth is gone, their ecosystem is probably gone for 25 years at least.

The west won’t use nuclear weapons unless Russia use them first. I feel like nuclear weapons aren’t actually there to cause mass destruction, but rather make others countries afraid and avoid conflict.

 

[d9009alycidon]

Will the accommodation Lukashenko offers be a bungalow or a penthouse?

It's hard to see where else he could go. Russia's obviously out of the question, Putin's other recent allies are backing away, and most Western-orientated countries would quite rightly see him as someone to be put on trial (surprised the ICC hasn't gone after him yet). I guess Dubai might be a possibility - not too choosy about who they let in, as long as they have money.

Anywhere with an extradition treaty with the USA is out...

 

[Giugiaro]

Not sure if I should seal back the popcorn, or if I should keep it in readiness for longer.

 

[GS250]

No need for nuclear willy-waving and indeed that would be counterproductive.

There is a familiar saying: "Do not interrupt when your enemy is making a mistake".

The whole Russian approach to war has indeed been made them look stupid in front of the world. Antiquated methodology in top brass being the only real decision makers with senior NCOs and junior COs just blindly following orders. The whole 'you are dying for the motherland' was maybe appropriate in ww2 but not in this conflict. However that's how they've been trained. UK and US militaries amongst others value those who they've trained and want to keep them alive. They've also realised delegated authority is more effective on the battlefield.

 

[Annetts key]

The whole Russian approach to war has indeed been made them look stupid in front of the world. Antiquated methodology in top brass being the only real decision makers with senior NCOs and junior COs just blindly following orders. The whole 'you are dying for the motherland' was maybe appropriate in ww2 but not in this conflict. However that's how they've been trained. UK and US militaries amongst others value those who they've trained and want to keep them alive. They've also realised delegated authority is more effective on the battlefield.

But none of this is new. The Russians rely on numbers. In all areas, be it personnel, aircraft, tanks, rockets, missiles, artillery…

The West much prefers intelligence and accuracy, with most western military investing in extremely well trained personnel, who are worth protecting with the best possible equipment.