Russia invades Ukraine

[najaB]

According to Mike Martin the Kremlin is looking to take control of all PMCs (Private Military Companies), which could well go down like a lead balloon among Wagner et al.:

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1667818439438737408

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Jun 2023 ==

Now got a BBC report:

Ukraine war: Russia moves to take direct control of Wagner Group

It appears to be the latest in a public falling out between the Wagner boss and Russian officials.

www.bbc.co.uk

This could get... interesting.

One good thing is that the busier Russia is fighting itself, the less effective it will be at fighting Ukraine.

 

[brad465]

Ukraine now claiming a few villages are liberated in its south-east:

Ukraine counter-offensive: Kyiv says it has liberated villages in Donetsk region

The villages in the Donetsk region would represent the first major gains of Kyiv's new advance.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ukraine says it has liberated three villages in the south-east of the country in the first victories of its much-anticipated counter-offensive.
Footage on social media showed Ukrainian troops celebrating in the neighbouring settlements of Blahodatne and Neskuchne in the Donetsk region.
Kyiv's deputy defence minister said nearby Makarivka was also taken.
On Saturday, President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the counter-offensive had begun.
These three settlements would be the first liberated since his comments, but not the first that Ukraine has recaptured since Monday, when pockets of its forces began to advance in the country's south.
Moscow has yet to confirm the fall of any of the villages, instead speaking of repelling Ukrainian assaults in the region.
Elsewhere, Ukraine says Russia has blown up another dam in the Zaporizhzhia region, following the destruction of the major Nova Kakhovka on Monday, which caused widespread flooding.
Ukraine says the dam was blown up by Russian forces, who have controlled it since February 2022.
Valeriy Shershen, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military, said Moscow's forces had chosen to blow up a second dam near the village of Novodarivka, which "led to the flooding on both banks of the Mokri Yaly river".
Mr Shershen said Russia was deliberately blowing up dams in the region to halt Ukraine's advance towards occupied areas.
Russia has denied it blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam and has blamed Ukraine instead.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Ukraine now claiming a few villages are liberated in its south-east:

Some people on Twitter suggest that they haven't actually reached the Russian lines of defence yet,

I am slightly concerned about the disconnect between what is reported (a few villages) and the Ukrainian reports of "the enemy is collapsing". I know that Opsec is a major thing on the UA side, but there seems to be nothing in the Russian information sphere to suggest that there's been a dramatic collapse.

 

[Sm5]

I'm not sure what the relevance is? The Russian language isn't an enemy of democracy, neither are the majority of Russian-speaking people.

Remember that alleged mistreatment of Russian-speaking people in Ukraine is one reason that the Russian government has used to try and justify their invasion of Ukraine.

Theres probably a number of them in Donbass who are happy with that too.
post war what should happen to them ?
deportations, execution, forced integration to Ukraine, pogroms ?

its their existence is what Russia stands behind, and most likely Russia was mis-lead to believe they had more supporters than what they had.

But they exist.

What should be considered is a repeat of Poland, who murdered, executed and ran Germans from their homes when taking land from Germany in 1945, which conversely was a result of Ukrainians murdering and executing Poles in western ukraine, as they were absorbing Polish lands into Ukraine, thus forcing those Poles to move west and occupy those lands taken from Germany.

not many saints in Eastern Europe, on any side, they are all as capable and willing to give as good as they get… thats whats surprised so many in the west and turned this into the fight it is.

Even if Russia is defeated, the risk of Ukrainian civil war is possible in the east, if the Russian leaning Ukrainians resolve to stand and fight for their homes.

This might even be where Wagner finds a home if it exits Russia, turning Donbass into a Terrorist state inbetween both Ukraine and Russia, becoming an issue for both countries. A bit like Transistria, full of armed up old soviets who don't want to go back, found a home amongst “supporters”, who they protect and become a drag on their borders and host country.

This marginalisation / resurgence is the root cause behind the whole conflict. Total anilhation, or total removal of Ruso-Ukrainians is the only way, but will the west support that level of civil war or expulsions let alone Russia ?..

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jun 2023 ==

Agree. About time it was made clear to the Russians that all such destruction achieves is an increased bill.

I hope the amount of weapons that are being "donated" to Ukraine are actually being totted up on tic. Russia is entirely liable for every penny expended in the defence of Ukraine against the wilfully unlawful invasion.

Treaty of Versailles worked out well didnt it ?
Russia owes the west a few quid for a hundred plus Airbus too.
Getting that kind of money out of a few poverty struck eastern russians is going nowhere.
confiscating whats already in the west is best bet.
Russia will end up owned by China.

According to Mike Martin the Kremlin is looking to take control of all PMCs (Private Military Companies), which could well go down like a lead balloon among Wagner et al.:

Wagner is an army looking for a country.

 

[gingerheid]

And a lot of Wagner convicts have little to go back home for.

 

[Pete_uk]

If Russia blows up the Crimean Titan plant, it will be the biggest deliberate disaster since god knows when.
Absolute ecocide that could effect a very large area.

If that happens ... Europe should go all in and send the buggers packing big time.

 

[brad465]

So Russia are launching strikes on Kyiv just as African leaders turn up for a supposed peace summit. "Darth Putin" put this best:

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1669635528768069632

Day 478 of my 3 day war. To persuade South Africa to allow me to travel there without being arrested I have bombed Kiev while President @CyrilRamaphosa is visiting…

I remain a master strategist.

 

[YorkshireBear]

This counter offensive doesn't seem up to a right lot, I am concerned by how little they are gaining for a big outlay in resources that will then leave them vulnerable.

Maybe we have reached the long term stalemate....

 

[yorksrob]

This counter offensive doesn't seem up to a right lot, I am concerned by how little they are gaining for a big outlay in resources that will then leave them vulnerable.

Maybe we have reached the long term stalemate....

Then we will need to keep Russia contained.

 

[brad465]

This counter offensive doesn't seem up to a right lot, I am concerned by how little they are gaining for a big outlay in resources that will then leave them vulnerable.

Maybe we have reached the long term stalemate....

We can't expect things to move very fast and in Ukraine it took them 2 months to regain Kherson, it just so happened that surprise rapid gains in Kharkiv last year gave a false sense of how fast things can move.

 

[Pete_uk]

It will be a slog as Ukraine are now the attacking force with defenders well and truly entrenched.

Hopefully at some point a major supply line will be broken or Russian forces encircled which will result in larger gains.

Once the F16s eventually get airborne they will hopefully provide some good air to ground attack support.

 

[Annetts key]

This counter offensive doesn't seem up to a right lot, I am concerned by how little they are gaining for a big outlay in resources that will then leave them vulnerable.

Maybe we have reached the long term stalemate....

It was always going to be slow, at least to start with.

As said above, the Russians have had a long time to prepare defensive positions, and lay mines.

Ukraine values it’s soldiers lives, so will not make a big push unless they see weaknesses in the Russian “lines” (not that there are actual lines everywhere mind, it’s more pockets).

Ukraine is still mainly conducting probing attacks.

Drones when guiding artillery can be deadly, hence using large concentrations of armoured vehicles such as tanks is rather risky.

When Ukraine has significantly degraded Russian supply lines, have destroyed most of their artillery and as many enemy armoured vehicles as possible, so that the Russians are less confident, you may see a change.

Even then, the Ukrainian military has to clear each area, otherwise pockets of Russians behind the “lines” could cause lots of trouble. Plus, mine fields, at least on supply routes have to be cleared.

 

[gingerheid]

At the moment it's not in Ukraine's interests to tell us much, and I'm sure they will act in their honourable interests.

At the moment it's in R*ssia's interests to try to make us feel that Ukraine's position is hopeless, and I'm sure they'll act in their filthy evil interests.

 

[DustyBin]

It was always going to be slow, at least to start with.

As said above, the Russians have had a long time to prepare defensive positions, and lay mines.

Ukraine values it’s soldiers lives, so will not make a big push unless they see weaknesses in the Russian “lines” (not that there are actual lines everywhere mind, it’s more pockets).

Ukraine is still mainly conducting probing attacks.

Drones when guiding artillery can be deadly, hence using large concentrations of armoured vehicles such as tanks is rather risky.

When Ukraine has significantly degraded Russian supply lines, have destroyed most of their artillery and as many enemy armoured vehicles as possible, so that the Russians are less confident, you may see a change.

Even then, the Ukrainian military has to clear each area, otherwise pockets of Russians behind the “lines” could cause lots of trouble. Plus, mine fields, at least on supply routes have to be cleared.

At the moment it's not in Ukraine's interests to tell us much, and I'm sure they will act in their honourable interests.

At the moment it's in R*ssia's interests to try to make us feel that Ukraine's position is hopeless, and I'm sure they'll act in their filthy evil interests.

Yes, these are all things we need to keep in mind.

 

[Strathclyder]

It was always going to be slow, at least to start with.

As said above, the Russians have had a long time to prepare defensive positions, and lay mines.

Ukraine values it’s soldiers lives, so will not make a big push unless they see weaknesses in the Russian “lines” (not that there are actual lines everywhere mind, it’s more pockets).

Ukraine is still mainly conducting probing attacks.

Drones when guiding artillery can be deadly, hence using large concentrations of armoured vehicles such as tanks is rather risky.

When Ukraine has significantly degraded Russian supply lines, have destroyed most of their artillery and as many enemy armoured vehicles as possible, so that the Russians are less confident, you may see a change.

Even then, the Ukrainian military has to clear each area, otherwise pockets of Russians behind the “lines” could cause lots of trouble. Plus, mine fields, at least on supply routes have to be cleared.

At the moment it's not in Ukraine's interests to tell us much, and I'm sure they will act in their honourable interests.

At the moment it's in R*ssia's interests to try to make us feel that Ukraine's position is hopeless, and I'm sure they'll act in their filthy evil interests.

Pretty much my views on the current state of affairs in this conflict

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

Some interesting developments on the Russian side today, to say the least.

 

[brad465]

Get the popcorn out:

Wagner mercenary boss says Russia bombed his troops

Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed a "huge number" of his fighters had been killed in the strike.

www.bbc.co.uk

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group has accused the country's military of launching a strike on his troops, claims that mark an astonishing escalation of infighting inside Russia.
Yevgeny Prigozhin said a "huge number" of his fighters had been killed and that he would lead a "march for justice" to exact revenge.
It follows an earlier tirade in which he blamed defence minister Sergei Shoigu for starting the war in Ukraine.
Moscow denied attacking Wagner forces.
In a statement, the Russian defence ministry said that "all reports by Prigozhin spread on social media" of Russian strikes on Wagner camps were "not true and are an information provocation".
Russian state media also reports that the FSB, Russia's security services, have opened a criminal case against Prigozhin, accusing him of "calling for an armed rebellion".
The Wagner Group is a paramilitary organisation that has been fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. In recent months, Prigozhin has become increasingly vocal in his criticism of Russia's military leadership.
In an audio message posted to the social media platform Telegram, he said "the evil which the Russian military leadership carries must be stopped".
"Those who killed our lads, and tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers [in the war in Ukraine] will be punished," he said.
"I ask you not to resist. Anyone who does will be considered a threat and destroyed. That goes for any checkpoints and aviation on our way.
"Presidential power, the government, the police and Russian guard will work as usual.
"This is not a military coup, but a march of justice. Our actions do not interfere with the troops in any way."
In a statement responding to the message, the FSB demanded "an immediate stop to illegal actions" by Prigozhin. The Kremlin has also said "necessary measures are being taken", according to Russian news agency Interfax.
It comes after a video message in May in which Prigozhin stood surrounded by the bodies of his troops and berated Mr Shoigu - as well as Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov - for not providing them with enough ammunition.
Earlier on Friday, he said the war in Ukraine had been started "so that Shoigu could become a Marshal".
"The Ministry of Defence is trying to deceive the public, deceive the president and tell a story that there was some crazy aggression by Ukraine, that - together with the whole Nato bloc - Ukraine was planning to attack us," he said.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

It does feel like the last few weeks have been crystallising towards an internal confrontation. I imagine there are a few inside the Russian MOD wondering which route Putin is likely to go down and whether they have a date with an open window in their near future?

 

[kristiang85]

Very interesting developments tonight. Lots of stuff on social media but I'm not sure what's true or not, but there's certainly no smoke without fire.

BBC apparently saying blockades are out in Moscow and Rostov, so something's definitely cooking.

 

[gingerheid]

I try to ignore everything Wagner and the Ruzzian MOD say about each other as likely to be an attempted distraction tactic that is as true as a WWF fight or a reality tv show.

Would be amazing if it was true.

I wonder though if it could be a pretext to allow for some real atrocities to be committed under the Wagner name rather than Ruzzia's name.

 

[DustyBin]

I try to ignore everything Wagner and the Ruzzian MOD say about each other as likely to be an attempted distraction tactic that is as true as a WWF fight or a reality tv show.

Would be amazing if it was true.

I wonder though if it could be a pretext to allow for some real atrocities to be committed under the Wagner name rather than Ruzzia's name.

There are three obvious possibilities that I can see.

1. It’s a pretext for something particularly unpleasant.

2. It’s a pretext for a Russian withdrawal.

3. It’s as it first appears i.e. Prigozhin has turned on the MOD.

The Russians don’t need a pretext to commit atrocities, and I’m not sure they’d go to this much hassle to create one. It could be a pretext for a withdrawal and I can see how this would play out, but again I’m not convinced. Therefore I think it’s most likely as it appears. After months of tension, an escalating war of words and then the contract situation (deadline is the 1st of July IIRC) I suspect Prigozhin has decided to make a move as he’s got nothing left to lose. If this is the case, I’d be surprised if he’s acting alone.

Clearly we have limited information at this stage so I could be completely wrong!

 

[kristiang85]

Wagner are mercenaries - maybe they've just sold out to someone who pays them more?

There must be some oligarchs behind the scenes who are fed up of seeing their movements and bank accounts sanctioned, and would happily see the back of this regime now?

(100% Friday night speculation on my part)

 

[brad465]

BBC now have a live feed on the situation, including claims Wagner have crossed from Ukraine into Russia:

Prigozhin claims forces have crossed Russian border​

Wagner troops have crossed Russia's border with Ukraine in multiple locations, the mercenary group's leader has now claimed.
In new audio recordings published on Telegram, Yevgeny Prigozhin says his mercenaries were "embraced" by border guards as they passed through.
He also claimed Russian conscripts order to stop them moved aside to allow his troops to pass, adding they are "now entering Rostov" - a city in south-western Russia near the Ukrainian border.
"But if anyone stands in our way, we will destroy everything that's in our way... We are moving forward, we'll go all the way," Prigozhin added.
The BBC is not able to verify the claims and no images or videos of Wagner forces in Russia have yet emerged.

Even if Wagner forces are not taking control of parts of Russia, this must be sufficient evidence they are not doing anything to help retain Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, which combined with reported chaos in Russian ranks, will help Ukraine advance further, maybe even very quickly in places.

 

[Yew]

I suspect Prigozhin has decided to make a move as he’s got nothing left to lose. If this is the case, I’d be surprised if he’s acting alone.

Clearly we have limited information at this stage so I could be completely wrong!

A general winning a battle on the frontier and declaring himself emperor and marching on the capital was an occupational hazard for the leaders of Rome.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Jun 2023 ==

Even if Wagner forces are not taking control of parts of Russia, this must be sufficient evidence they are not doing anything to help retain Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, which combined with reported chaos in Russian ranks, will help Ukraine advance further, maybe even very quickly in places.

Okay, I hadn't seen this, my previous comment was intended to be facetious.

 

[brad465]

Should we change this thread title to "Russia invades Russia"?

 

[gingerheid]

There are three obvious possibilities that I can see.

1. It’s a pretext for something particularly unpleasant.

2. It’s a pretext for a Russian withdrawal.

3. It’s as it first appears i.e. Prigozhin has turned on the MOD.

The Russians don’t need a pretext to commit atrocities, and I’m not sure they’d go to this much hassle to create one. It could be a pretext for a withdrawal and I can see how this would play out, but again I’m not convinced. Therefore I think it’s most likely as it appears. After months of tension, an escalating war of words and then the contract situation (deadline is the 1st of July IIRC) I suspect Prigozhin has decided to make a move as he’s got nothing left to lose. If this is the case, I’d be surprised if he’s acting alone.

Clearly we have limited information at this stage so I could be completely wrong!

or 4. They haven't been paid and this is debt collection activity.

Stolen joke: Before they invaded Ukraine Russia had the second best army in the world. Afterwards they had the second best army in Ukraine. Now will they become the second best army in Russia?

 

[GusB]

Wagner are mercenaries - maybe they've just sold out to someone who pays them more?

He who pays the piper...

 

[najaB]

Regardless of what happens or not in Russia, the confusion helps the AFU achieve their goals.

 

[WatcherZero]

Watching Wagner forces taking buildings in Rostov-on-Don right now including Southern District Military HQ (where the war in Ukraine is run from), Russian police and other military forces are offering little to no resistance beyond attempting to block roads with coaches.

 

[Russel]

I get the feeling we're watching history unfold here.