Use of HS2 for commuting to London

[Nottingham59]

When HS2 phase 1 is delivered, trains will take 42 or 49 minutes (not sure which) to get from Curzon St to Old Oak Common, with direct connections onto the Elizabeth Line and the eventual promise of direct trains to Euston. This is puts it well into commuting territory.

How practical will be this be, in reality? Is there any indication yet of pricing? Do the plans for Curzon Street include a pedestrian entrance at the Eastern end? (This would save 400-500m walking for anyone coming from the B7 postcode around Duddington. Which I note from the Guardian today is one of the cheapest places to buy property in the UK. https://www.theguardian.com/society...-can-afford-to-buy-or-rent-home-great-britain )

Birmingham International has a lot of daily commutors today. We can assume these will switch to HS2. But I don't know how many daily or occasional commuters use New Street or Crewe or similar places which will be much more commutable after HS2 is built.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The cost will be too high for most daily commuting, and houses in Brum aren't that much cheaper than equivalent areas of e.g. MK/Northampton to make it attractive on those grounds.

There'll probably be a decent number of "two days a week" people though, there are plenty from far further away than that.

 

[The Planner]

Duddeston will just end up getting redeveloped and property prices will just go up. There is a reason its cheap now! The East side out towards Digbeth will go the same way.

 

[Nottingham59]

The cost will be too high for most daily commuting, and houses in Brum aren't that much cheaper than equivalent areas of e.g. MK/Northampton to make it attractive on those grounds.

There'll probably be a decent number of "two days a week" people though, there are plenty from far further away than that.

Northampton is 1h10m from Euston, and average property in NN1 postcode is £210,000, compared to B7 postcode at £145,000. Makes you think, though ....

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Duddeston will just end up getting redeveloped and property prices will just go up. There is a reason its cheap now! The East side out towards Digbeth will go the same way.

Precisely. I'm not planning to commute, but the investment opportunity does seem very real just at the moment.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Northampton is 1h10m from Euston, and average property in NN1 postcode is £210,000, compared to B7 postcode at £145,000. Makes you think, though ....

White collar London commuters aren't going to be living on sink estates. The comparison is in nicer areas, really. Some might I suppose go for new flats near Curzon St but these aren't going to be budget-priced, likely they'll be considerably more expensive than a 2-bed with a garden and parking in a reasonable part of MK or Northampton.

It's more about fare than journey time. HS2 isn't going to be cheaper from Brum than Northampton other than possibly a few headline Advances. And the sort of places these people will want to live aren't inner-city dives, they're nice places which in Brum are mostly on the outskirts/Snow Hill lines.

 

[The Planner]

Northampton is 1h10m from Euston, and average property in NN1 postcode is £210,000, compared to B7 postcode at £145,000. Makes you think, though ....

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jun 2023 ==


Precisely. I'm not planning to commute, but the investment opportunity does seem very real just at the moment.

Providing you are prepared to wait the 7-8 years for a developer to buy your house and knock it down to build a load of rabbit hutches. Doesnt mean you will make a killing unless that redevelopment doesnt spread out.

 

[NorthOxonian]

I would imagine Birmingham Interchange would attract more commuters - there's a lot of higher end housing around that area that is quite a lot cheaper than it would be in similarly leafy areas of the Home Counties. From somewhere like Dorridge (for example) you can be at Interchange in about 20 minutes; from Hampton in Arden or Meriden even less. It won't necessarily be daily commuting but two or three days a week (in fairness, this probably happens to an extent now, but the faster journey times will attract more of these commuters).

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would imagine Birmingham Interchange would attract more commuters - there's a lot of higher end housing around that area that is quite a lot cheaper than it would be in similarly leafy areas of the Home Counties. From somewhere like Dorridge (for example) you can be at Interchange in about 20 minutes; from Hampton in Arden or Meriden even less. It won't necessarily be daily commuting but two or three days a week (in fairness, this probably happens to an extent now, but the faster journey times will attract more of these commuters).

I'd probably agree with this. It'll be two days a week by people living in nice areas in the outskirts of the city (some of which are VERY nice and more affordable than say "Metro-Land" which is swingeingly expensive) and they'll drive the Jag or Range Rover and park up there.

It'll necessarily be the premium end because one would not expect the fares to be considerably lower than the present Avanti fares.

 

[Energy]

It'll necessarily be the premium end because one would not expect the fares to be considerably lower than the present Avanti fares.

HS2 seems to be going for pile them high , sell them (relatively) low. Id expect a small decrease, DfT will want to fill up the seats.

 

[Bletchleyite]

HS2 seems to be going for pile them high , sell them (relatively) low. Id expect a small decrease, DfT will want to fill up the seats.

Yes, I'd expect better value Advances than we have at present due to the near-doubling of capacity over the full 3tph Avanti service, however I'd not expect it to be cheap. Though perhaps for as long as it remains a mildly inconvenient Birmingham to Old Oak white elephant, it could well end up very cheap indeed which will be useful for some, because why wouldn't you prefer a train that actually goes to central London?

The interavailable Anytime Return from BHI to EUS is at present a swingeing and ridiculous £188.80. We might see fares sold such that a peak-both-ways return might come out a bit nearer the "route High Wycombe" at £135.30, perhaps. But I'd be amazed if it was less than the fifty-quid-or-so Anytime Day Returns from the outer London commuter belt in the former NSE area, so it's never going to be a mass commuting thing, more for highly paid people like management who want a nice, big house in a rural area that's cheaper than Metroland and are saving more than £400 a month on their mortgage by being up there instead of in somewhere like Amersham or the Chalfonts.

 

[Energy]

Yes, I'd expect better value Advances than we have at present due to the near-doubling of capacity over the full 3tph Avanti service, however I'd not expect it to be cheap.

I'm not sure on advances. I think they'd rather sell people offpeak/anytime tickets. The trains to particularly Manchester are so frequent that letting people easily catch the next train should better spread demand out.

I don't think we will see it LNWR prices but instead of the £30 advance and £45 off peak single currently from London to Birmingham we could see £25 off peak single, £35 off peak return, £40 anytime single and £50 anytime return.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm not sure on advances. I think they'd rather sell people offpeak/anytime tickets. The trains to particularly Manchester are so frequent that letting people easily catch the next train should better spread demand out.

HS2 is almost certain to be compulsory reservation* and dynamically priced, so everything will be Advances. Though with 400m trains with over 1000 seats in each, they likely won't get full very often, just as Eurostar usually doesn't when operating full capacity. If you want flexibility you'll just not buy until you know when you're going to travel; dynamic pricing doesn't necessarily mean expensive on the day, it means pricing according to demand. LNER and Northern already do this to an extent with their Advances.

* The issue with standing loads I believe being, like the Channel Tunnel, the evacuation plan for the long tunnel out of London.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jun 2023 ==

I don't think we will see it LNWR prices but instead of the £30 advance and £45 off peak single currently from London to Birmingham we could see £25 off peak single, £35 off peak return, £40 anytime single and £50 anytime return.

With it only operating to Old Oak I'd expect to see Chiltern like prices but in advance form, i.e. the middle prices (LNR is cheaper, Avanti is pricier). If/when it opens in full and replaces the WCML services I'd expect it to go up though possibly not as much as Avanti at present.

 

[Energy]

* The issue with standing loads I believe being, like the Channel Tunnel, the evacuation plan for the long tunnel out of London.

It will be interesting how they handle it. If evacuation plans are done for the absolute max capacity (including standees) they could still do anytime and off-peak tickets.

With it only operating to Old Oak I'd expect to see Chiltern like prices but in advance form, i.e. the middle prices (LNR is cheaper, Avanti is pricier). If/when it opens in full and replaces the WCML services I'd expect it to go up though possibly not as much as Avanti at present.

I'd expect HS2 Euston prices but with a small amount off.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It will be interesting how they handle it. If evacuation plans are done for the absolute max capacity (including standees) they could still do anytime and off-peak tickets.

They could also still do Anytime and Off Peak tickets but make reservations actually compulsory i.e. checked on boarding with a penalty if you do get through without one. Lots of options. I suspect the planned "fully dynamic pricing" trial on one LNER route (about which we don't know much detail yet) might serve to inform the situation.

It's also been said that at OOC on the full service there won't be time for people wandering round looking for seats, they need to be standing ready by the right door, so that also pushes the CR idea, but that's a long way off if ever.

 

[edwin_m]

The policy objective should really be to improve connectivity so the cities of the Midlands and North become prosperous centres in their own right, not dormitories for London commuters. That suggests that pricing may be set to discourage commuting, such as relatively cheap peak-time returns for business visits but no season tickets. That does of course become more difficult when many commuters won't be travelling every day.

 

[HSTEd]

I'm not sure why you would take any measures to discourage commuting.

HS2 will not be full or close to full any time soon.
Commuters pay fares, the railway needs fares.

If they want to pay to travel from Manchester or Birmingham to London every day, why is this a bad thing for us?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm not sure why you would take any measures to discourage commuting.

HS2 will not be full or close to full any time soon.
Commuters pay fares, the railway needs fares.

If they want to pay to travel from Manchester or Birmingham to London every day, why is this a bad thing for us?

I don't believe any of this is suggesting that there would be any measures to discourage commuting. It's just that you aren't going to be selling Birmingham to London for less than <pick a random ex-NSE commuter town> to London, largely because it's at least twice as far*. Thus, only people with high value jobs are going to find this economically sensible.

* Weymouth, in case anyone was going to try it, is not a London commuter town - NSE did have some anomalies!

 

[Nottingham59]

London, largely because it's at least twice as far*

Certainly in terms of miles, but in terms of minutes spent occupying a seat Birmingham is a lot closer than say Northampton, so the marginal and operating cost of supplying that seat should be lower. An Interchange-OOC shuttle should be able to fill the same seat two or even three times in the morning peak, if they have a slick turnaround at each end.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Certainly in terms of miles, but in terms of minutes spent occupying a seat Birmingham is a lot closer than say Northampton, so the marginal and operating cost of supplying that seat should be lower. An Interchange-OOC shuttle should be able to fill the same seat two or even three times in the morning peak, if they have a slick turnaround at each end.

But if they do underprice it to create this market, what that will do is reduce income from the existing market that is willing to pay the outrageous £180 fare.

Thus it won't come down by much in my view - perhaps down to the present Chiltern fare but not lower.

 

[HSTEd]

But if they do underprice it to create this market, what that will do is reduce income from the existing market that is willing to pay the outrageous £180 fare.

However, as has been demonstrated many times, the easiest way to make money on these systems is to pile in high and sell it cheap.

ICWC can't do that strategy because they can't truly amortise their crew and stock costs down due to the operational constraints of the railway. So they are forced into the ultra-high margin game.

When one staff member can ship three trains of 1100+ commuters in a single peak session, things change quite substantially.

 

[Bletchleyite]

However, as has been demonstrated many times, the easiest way to make money on these systems is to pile in high and sell it cheap.

So some people say. But is there an example of high speed rail in any country being primarily "pile high, sell cheap" rather than a premium priced service (relative to other services in that country)?

I can't think of a single one. Can you?

When British exceptionalism rears its head, it's usually Britain that's wrong.

 

[HSTEd]

So some people say. But is there an example of high speed rail in any country being primarily "pile high, sell cheap" rather than a premium priced service (relative to other services in that country)?

I can't think of a single one. Can you?

When British exceptionalism rears its head, it's usually Britain that's wrong.

Well the "premium service" in Japan has managed to utterly destroy the bulk of parallel routes.

Even in the overcrowded Tokaido Shinkansen corridor only a single night train actually travels the length of the conventional line any more.

So I don't think its as simple as the idea of an ultra premium service on the high speed line and the bulk of traffic uses the normal line.

The Shinkansen supplement is a few pounds, its frankly negligible! The Shinkansen has utterly driven conventional rail out of the market.

I think the Shinkansen makes a convincing argument for "pile it high, sell it cheap" in action

EDIT:

It's worth noting that almost all National Rail journeys in the UK are subsidies by the state to some degree or other.
That means the state is directly paying some portion of the cost of each journey.

The state has an interest in ensuring that passengers are moved in the most cost efficient manner.
HS2 will be far more cost efficient than the conventional WCML at moving passengers.

The government will be strongly incentivised to price HS2 comparably or even below conventional rail journeys to pull as much traffic as possible onto the line.

The government will want London-Solihull traffic to go via Curzon/Moor Street

 

[Bletchleyite]

So I don't think its as simple as the idea of an ultra premium service on the high speed line and the bulk of traffic uses the normal line.

I don't think anyone's saying it would be ultra premium. Indeed my contention is that due to the inconvenience of the location of Old Oak it may be a little cheaper than Avanti, e.g. roughly the Chiltern price of around £150 Anytime Return from Brum to London (cheaper off peak of course).

However I don't think there's any chance that it'd be genuinely cheap, e.g. cheaper than the £50 ish Anytime Day Return from MKC to Euston or anywhere near it.

I'd eat my hat (if I wore one) if it was typically under £100 for a peak return journey, notwithstanding that there may be some headline Advances in small numbers per train.

I think the Shinkansen makes a convincing argument for "pile it high, sell it cheap" in action

I'd say you yourself have argued that it isn't at all, because it carries a supplement, just one that, like HS1 in the UK, people consider worth paying.

TBH HS1 is probably a reasonable comparison to a Birmingham to Old Oak shuttle. There are commuters, but there won't be many from Dover as it's a bit far out so a bit expensive.

 

[eldomtom2]

I'd say you yourself have argued that it isn't at all, because it carries a supplement, just one that, like HS1 in the UK, people consider worth paying.

It's a bit odd to consider the only direct intercity service between most major cities "premium" just because it carries a small supplement...

 

[edwin_m]

Certainly in terms of miles, but in terms of minutes spent occupying a seat Birmingham is a lot closer than say Northampton, so the marginal and operating cost of supplying that seat should be lower. An Interchange-OOC shuttle should be able to fill the same seat two or even three times in the morning peak, if they have a slick turnaround at each end.

Fares to intermediate stations will have to be pro-rata to HS2 fares or something similar, to avoid anomalies such as this. The released capacity from HS2 should remove most of the overcrowding problems on the classic WCML - but it gets interesting when places on the other lines complain that their trains are still overcrowded and they're paying more.

There's probably also still a place for cheap fares on slower services to sell off-peak seats that cost the railway virtually nothing to provide, because the train is running anyway.

 

[zwk500]

It will be interesting how they handle it. If evacuation plans are done for the absolute max capacity (including standees) they could still do anytime and off-peak tickets.

I'm fairly sure it's been confirmed that HS2 is planned for everybody to have a seat, i.e. reservations only and no standees (barring disruption). Very similar to TGVs.

An Interchange-OOC shuttle should be able to fill the same seat two or even three times in the morning peak, if they have a slick turnaround at each end.

Once the line is fully open I'm pretty sure there were no plans to turn trains at intermediate stations in regular service.

 

[Nottingham59]

Once the line is fully open I'm pretty sure there were no plans to turn trains at intermediate stations in regular service

Agreed. But the network was designed to provide 3tph between Curzon St and Old Oak Common, and 5tph between Interchange and OOC. They should offer those frequencies from the start of the overture service. There's plenty of capacity to turn 7tph at OOC and 4 at Interchange.

 

[HSTEd]

I'm fairly sure it's been confirmed that HS2 is planned for everybody to have a seat, i.e. reservations only and no standees (barring disruption). Very similar to TGVs.

If they are going to permit standees at any time then the evacuation tests will have to assume standees aboard.

At which point "compulsory reservations" will be about as tenable as when LNER tried it - so to say not at all.

As far as I know noone has said anything official at all about compulsory reservations on HS2 yet.
It's a looong way in advance for those sorts of decisions

 

[Bald Rick]

How practical will be this be, in reality?

Very. It was practical 25 years ago when the journey was nearly an hour longer…

Is there any indication yet of pricing?

No, and there won’t be for many years.

Do the plans for Curzon Street include a pedestrian entrance at the Eastern end?

Yes, AIUI. Or at least an entrance towards that end

Duddington

Duddeston

But I don't know how many daily or occasional commuters use New Street

When I did it, 25 years ago, there were a few hundred a day.

 

[Kenny G]

Well the "premium service" in Japan has managed to utterly destroy the bulk of parallel routes.

Even in the overcrowded Tokaido Shinkansen corridor only a single night train actually travels the length of the conventional line any more.

So I don't think its as simple as the idea of an ultra premium service on the high speed line and the bulk of traffic uses the normal line.

The Shinkansen supplement is a few pounds, its frankly negligible! The Shinkansen has utterly driven conventional rail out of the market.

I think the Shinkansen makes a convincing argument for "pile it high, sell it cheap" in action

EDIT:

It's worth noting that almost all National Rail journeys in the UK are subsidies by the state to some degree or other.
That means the state is directly paying some portion of the cost of each journey.

The state has an interest in ensuring that passengers are moved in the most cost efficient manner.
HS2 will be far more cost efficient than the conventional WCML at moving passengers.

The government will be strongly incentivised to price HS2 comparably or even below conventional rail journeys to pull as much traffic as possible onto the line.

The government will want London-Solihull traffic to go via Curzon/Moor Street

And how much are those "ultra cheap" tickets from say Nagoya to Tokyo? Around £60 each way..