DanNCL
Established Member
I think we need to remind ourselves of the wording of the ASLEF statement as some here seem to think that they are going to be boycotting every legacy traction types.
“ASLEF demands the ORR initiate an immediate industry review of crashworthiness standards of all rolling stock in service today and insist that classes of train or locomotive that do not meet minimum standards of crashworthiness be modified or be given a timescale for withdrawal”.
The above statement seems perfectly reasonable to me coming from a union whose primary interest is to ensure the safety and well-being of their members. This doesn’t mean they are going to all of a sudden stop driving every type of legacy traction. The only exception to that of course is the HST which they have given due notice for.
Your logic of because theres only been 1 accident in x number of years means that it’s okay, despite the fact that there are clear safety concerns regarding HST for it to continue in service as normal. How do you know there won’t be a similar incident happen today or tomorrow? Can anyone guarantee that it won’t? I don’t think so.
I suspect that ASLEF will boycott the HSTs until the modifications to the lifeguards have taken place and even then there will be a push to withdraw them from service as soon as possible thereafter.
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I don’t speak for ASLEF nor have any involvement with their LLC or EC but I suspect that they would be looking for a commitment from SR/ SG for a firm order for new/ alternative rolling stock to replace the HSTs with a date set for delivery. The fact that hasn’t happened and the SG seem to be insisting that the HSTs hold out till the end of the contract and that fact no modifications have taken place yet I would say is most likely the reason.
August is still a bit away so who knows what might happen between now and then.
The statement also says “That ASLEF demands that the ORR to begin the immediate process of withdrawal of HST’s from service across the entire rail network by 12th of August 2023”"My own view is that the campaigners about Grenfell Tower can get stuffed. People have lived in those flats without issue for years, there's only been one fatal accident involving spread between flats in the last 15 years..."
Sometimes it takes a tragedy to point out that something needs to be done. Had it not been for COVID, that train would have been full and we'd have been looking at a death toll possibly reaching 100.
It is, with trains, in my view valid to say "we'll stop them hitting stuff" (TPWS having been the big step in that direction in recent years), but that means something will need to be done to seriously reduce the risk of landslips, which have caused a number of derailments (e.g. that LM Class 350) in recent years.
Demanding that an entire fleet of trains is removed from the network in little over two months is unreasonable when they are safe enough for continued use in the medium term (next few years). No dispute that the HSTs need to go, but two months isn’t a realistic time frame when they haven’t even began the process of obtaining replacements.
Grenfell really isn’t comparable. There’s a realistic expectation that an entire tower block isn’t going to suddenly go up in flames and it's not for the user (the residents) to ensure this is the case but the building owner. On the other hand, it’s a known fact that transportation accidents can and sadly do occasionally happen. If this had been a road accident, ie a coach had hit an obstruction, the driver lost control and the vehicle came off the road and down an embankment, nobody would have bat an eyelid. That said there's also a realistic expectation that a train isn't going to tumble down an embankment, but the solution here should be to make sure that it's almost impossible for the accident to occur in the first place. It should be for Network Rail to ensure such accidents are almost impossible, it shouldn't be for the train operators to ensure that their trains are designed to withstand the potential consequences of Network Rail not looking after the infrastructure adequately or not inspecting the line before allowing it to reopen after severe weather (as was the case at Carmont).
Can assure you that’s not the case from me. I’m well aware of the need to replace the HSTs for many different reasons and I'm supportive of any reasonable and realistic proposals to replace them, in other words actually replacing them rather than withdrawing them without replacement.Of course that will put noses out of joint among enthusiasts who want to see HSTs carry on forever, but the railway isn’t run for enthusiasts…
And this is what prompted my remarks about ASLEF "getting stuffed", the expectation to suddenly find replacements for them in just over two months or to withdraw them all without replacement on 12th August and leave in particular Scotland but to a lesser extent also XC and GWR with a shortage of trains, and the resulting disruption that would cause for the public and in turn worsening of an already poor image much of the public have of the railway.The ASLEF circular is stating that they want ORR to mandate all HSTs be withdrawn from operating on the network by 12th August. The circular definitely doesn't say that they will be satisfied with a plan to eventually replace them whenever it's convenient for the TOCs involved - and it's worth noting that ScotRail isn't the only operator that is affected by this.
This isn't strictly true as all remaining HSTs in England will now be gone by the end of the year bar a very small quantity in reserve; before Carmont there hadn't been any plans for XC or GWR to replace or withdraw their HSTs.Since the Carmont accident, we’ve seen absolutely zero change to the HSTs in an operational and safety sense. SR and the SG are not going to put their hand in their pockets to cough up for a new or replacement fleet if they don’t have to which is precisely why ASLEF have drawn a line in the sand to force the issue. If they did nothing, then the fleet would still be in service right up to the end of lease agreement point.
Im absolutely certain ASLEF know exactly what they’re doing here and other than another accident, it’s the only way to force the SG‘s hand in tackling the issue.
In the case of the Scottish sets, if the replacements were to be new build it would take until 2026 or 2027 for replacements to enter service, as being a public sector company ScotRail would have to put it out to an open competitve tender and can't go direct to any of the manufactures for replacements. 222s are potentially available from some point next year but failing that there isn't any realistic alternative to new build for replacing ScotRail's HSTs unless they were to be replaced by 75mph Sprinters or chronically unreliable Coradias.
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