UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

[paul1609]

Energy costs are a big issue. Inflation there was astronomical - as rail does not pay duty on diesel the impact of the rise in the wholesale price was very painful - it effectively doubled. Much was hedged - but much was not. However the wholesale price is now back to where it was at the start of 2022.

But, as we know, energy prices fed through to everything, particularly materials. Then we have rolling stock - leases are typically priced with RPI inflators.

And finally - all that new rolling stock is more expensive than what it replaced. It will be interesting to see how much the Anglia rolling stock lease bill has increased compared to 2019, whilst running essentially the same level of service.

One of the biggest impacts in the heritage sector has been electricity costs up iro of 250 to 300% over the 19 to 23 period, even with no traction supply it accounts for over 10% of turnover now at my railway. That must surely be having a big effect on the mainline railway?

 

[Bletchleyite]

One of the biggest impacts in the heritage sector has been electricity costs up iro of 250 to 300% over the 19 to 23 period, even with no traction supply it accounts for over 10% of turnover now at my railway. That must surely be having a big effect on the mainline railway?

This should surely be driving efficiencies, like moving to LED lighting and not simply using resistive heating (the most expensive type) in places like waiting rooms, as well as improving insulation.

Though knowing the railway it's probably got fingers in its ears saying "la la la" - even Premier Inn and Travelodge spend a fortune on resistive heating unnecessarily, with seemingly no interest in resolving that quickly.

 

[Trainbike46]

It really would be useful to have a definitive quote, transcript or link to what was said on Sky yesterday.

(For the avoidance of doubt, I do not have access to Sky.)

While I can't provide a link directly to sky, as I cannot access it either, someone has helpfully provided a snippet on twitter including the claim that 40% of passengers have not returned postcovid:

https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1657657471115091970?cxt=HHwWhICz0f6rl4EuAAAA

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so unfortunately it is true that government ministers are massively lying about passenger numbers

 

[yorksrob]

But, as we know, energy prices fed through to everything, particularly materials. Then we have rolling stock - leases are typically priced with RPI inflators.

And finally - all that new rolling stock is more expensive than what it replaced. It will be interesting to see how much the Anglia rolling stock lease bill has increased compared to 2019, whilst running essentially the same level of service.

That's the folly of the rolling stock leasing market for you.

 

[Trainbike46]

Energy costs are a big issue. Inflation there was astronomical - as rail does not pay duty on diesel the impact of the rise in the wholesale price was very painful - it effectively doubled. Much was hedged - but much was not. However the wholesale price is now back to where it was at the start of 2022.

But, as we know, energy prices fed through to everything, particularly materials. Then we have rolling stock - leases are typically priced with RPI inflators.

And finally - all that new rolling stock is more expensive than what it replaced. It will be interesting to see how much the Anglia rolling stock lease bill has increased compared to 2019, whilst running essentially the same level of service.

Would you happen to know why they use RPI instead of CPI?

 

[bspahh]

While I can't provide a link directly to sky, as I cannot access it either, someone has helpfully provided a snippet on twitter including the claim that 40% of passengers have not returned postcovid:

https://twitter.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1657657471115091970?cxt=HHwWhICz0f6rl4EuAAAA

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 May 2023 ==

so unfortunately it is true that government ministers are massively lying about passenger numbers

This is slightly cleaned up from the Youtube transcript of the interview between Sophy Ridge and Grant Shapps:

Sophy Ridge:
Do you take a bit of responsibility yourself about setting the tone when it comes to strikes? I'm just asking because it feels to me like the train operators were one of the first the RMT. Sorry one of the first people to go on strike when you were transport secretary. You didn't meet them. You said: "Don't risk striking yourselves out of a job. Don't pitch yourselves against the public." Something the RMT said they thought was a threat and now of course we have this entrenched position with many of the sides in the debate should you have struck a more concilliatory tone.

Grant Shapps:
Well look I just think with um Railways we'd spent billions of pounds keeping the railways going during um covid 40% of the passengers haven't come back again uh to the railways as yet um and uh they're therefore having to be propped up by huge taxpayer subsidy and you've got a situation where train drivers the ASLEF union for example are on average paid nearly £60000. The offer on the table puts it up to £65000. I just it's time to get this thing put to bed.

 

[Richardr]

I am absolutely not accusing you of lying but I will point out again your assertion that the figures show leisure travel is booming when they don't because they don't take inflation into consideration is a very good reason for all the figures not being released. I'm not naïve or foolish enough to believe every decision taken is correct or done for the right reasons but I would rather live in a world where decisions are made by professionals who have access to all the data than by random people on social media who often misunderstand, misrepresent or cherry pick data to suit themselves.

No decisions are being made by random people on social media.

What is being suggested is that information behind the decisions made by politicians should be made available. Politicians often "misunderstand, misrepresent or cherry pick data to suit themselves" and information available to others is helpful in determining whether or not that is the case.

 

[43066]

It really would be useful to have a definitive quote, transcript or link to what was said on Sky yesterday.

(For the avoidance of doubt, I do not have access to Sky.)

Sophie Ridge, yesterday: 19:00onwards.

As well as the 40% claim he’s also asked about the RMT but (disingenuously) moves onto discussing ASLEF average salaries.

Tories on the side of working people, “buzzing with ideas” etc.

You can tell when he’s lying, his lips move…

 

[tomuk]

That's the folly of the rolling stock leasing market for you.

No its called replacing superannuated sprinters with an arguably over specified replacement. However they are funded costs would increase.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

No its called replacing superannuated sprinters with an arguably over specified replacement. However they are funded costs would increase.

Conventional thinking is new rolling stock increases passenger numbers, in normal times it's cost effective and I'm sure greater Anglia have notice this on the branch line services. The main line services might be a different story as WFH took hold but even that is busy now.

 

[Krokodil]

Greater Anglia found that when it replaced its single 153s with three car 756s passenger numbers on those routes boomed well past anything the 153s could have held.

If TPE were able to operate a regular, reliable service, I'm sure that passenger numbers would grow there too.

 

[Bertie the bus]

No decisions are being made by random people on social media.

What is being suggested is that information behind the decisions made by politicians should be made available. Politicians often "misunderstand, misrepresent or cherry pick data to suit themselves" and information available to others is helpful in determining whether or not that is the case.

There will be a vast amount of information on the railway. There will be (probably a significant number of) people who sift through, cross reference and interpret it so that it is useful. Do you really expect random people with no particular knowledge or expertise to be able to make a valid pronouncement on whether a decision was correct or not?

I also don't understand this fixation with railway data when the railway is irrelevant to a large number of people, yet health policy and interest rates set by the BoE affect just about everybody. Do people want all data used by all organisations that have an effect on the public to be released? What would that achieve?

 

[LowLevel]

Greater Anglia found that when it replaced its single 153s with three car 756s passenger numbers on those routes boomed well past anything the 153s could have held.

If TPE were able to operate a regular, reliable service, I'm sure that passenger numbers would grow there too.

EMR similar with 3 car 170s running full on former 153 routes at times.

 

[tomuk]

Conventional thinking is new rolling stock increases passenger numbers, in normal times it's cost effective and I'm sure greater Anglia have notice this on the branch line services. The main line services might be a different story as WFH took hold but even that is busy now.

I've nothing against new rolling stock but do the relatively lightly branches of East Anglia really need 2750hp powered bimode FLIRTS?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 May 2023 ==

There will be a vast amount of information on the railway. There will be (probably a significant number of) people who sift through, cross reference and interpret it so that it is useful. Do you really expect random people with no particular knowledge or expertise to be able to make a valid pronouncement on whether a decision was correct or not?

I also don't understand this fixation with railway data when the railway is irrelevant to a large number of people, yet health policy and interest rates set by the BoE affect just about everybody. Do people want all data used by all organisations that have an effect on the public to be released? What would that achieve?

Yes we would like it to be released it is called open government.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Yes we would like it to be released it is called open government.

It isn't called open government at all. It isn't as though there aren't already checks and balances. There are select committees who are provided with additional information and hold the government to account. There are also organisations like the National Audit Office which comprises of people who know what they are talking about and don't just make a few random tweets.

 

[yorksrob]

No its called replacing superannuated sprinters with an arguably over specified replacement. However they are funded costs would increase.

We shouldn't still be paying leasing costs on the superannuated sprinters.

 

[Krokodil]

Do you really expect random people with no particular knowledge or expertise to be able to make a valid pronouncement on whether a decision was correct or not?

Given that the people making the decisions have no knowledge or expertise, what's good for the goose is good for the gander

 

[Horizon22]

Some TOCs, not all

And some like GWR might have lost business travel, but gained leisure travel. So their problem is now wrong type of trains (sorry to paraphrase old excuse), or more strictly wrong mix of trains. An IET is not good choice for a Bristol-Weymouth local etc.

Of course it now puts pressure on Network Rail to move engineering works to business hours rather than weekends, but that discussion is probably better in another thread.

Yes but a leisure advance ticket might be 50% less than an anytime ticket. You’d have to double the leisure travellers to account for the difference.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 May 2023 ==

I am neither doubting your knowledge or experience but you really don’t have to look that far back in history to understand my points about misunderstanding, misrepresenting and cherry picking data on social media. There were many professionals who did exactly that during Covid and just because somebody is a professional doesn’t mean they don’t have a specific agenda which they can selectively use data to further.

Most people also have a poor understanding of statistics, which doesn’t help the discussion.

 

[Richardr]

There will be a vast amount of information on the railway. There will be (probably a significant number of) people who sift through, cross reference and interpret it so that it is useful. Do you really expect random people with no particular knowledge or expertise to be able to make a valid pronouncement on whether a decision was correct or not?

I also don't understand this fixation with railway data when the railway is irrelevant to a large number of people, yet health policy and interest rates set by the BoE affect just about everybody. Do people want all data used by all organisations that have an effect on the public to be released? What would that achieve?

I would like, if a cabinet minister goes on TV and says that rail usage is down 40%, to have a handle on whether that is right or not.

I do not automatically believe everything a government minister says, and think our democracy is better served by that stance. The same is true of other politicians and officials, but it is ministers who decide on our behalf.

Provision of information is vital to that.

 

[tomuk]

It isn't called open government at all. It isn't as though there aren't already checks and balances. There are select committees who are provided with additional information and hold the government to account. There are also organisations like the National Audit Office which comprises of people who know what they are talking about and don't just make a few random tweets.

Have you ever watched a select committee hearing?

 

[dk1]

Another thing that is often overlooked & constantly overtaken by the obsession with blaming everything on the pandemic is the fact that we have been bordering on a recession. Business & even leisure travel takes a knock at times like this and always have done historically.

 

[jayah]

Greater Anglia found that when it replaced its single 153s with three car 756s passenger numbers on those routes boomed well past anything the 153s could have held.

If TPE were able to operate a regular, reliable service, I'm sure that passenger numbers would grow there too.

Introducing them during COVID may have helped?

Looking at footfall figures on Wiki before and after COVID for Yarmouth, Sheringham, Cromer, Bury St Edmunds, Newmarket I can't see any evidence of it, only Cromer and Sheringham are slightly above and other are much lower.

 

[Bertie the bus]

I would like, if a cabinet minister goes on TV and says that rail usage is down 40%, to have a handle on whether that is right or not.

I do not automatically believe everything a government minister says, and think our democracy is better served by that stance. The same is true of other politicians and officials, but it is ministers who decide on our behalf.

Provision of information is vital to that.

Right, so you think that every time some politician says something you will have the time and expertise to trawl through endless current data to determine if they are wrong or deliberately lying? You must have an awful lot of spare time to fill.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 May 2023 ==

Most people also have a poor understanding of statistics, which doesn’t help the discussion.

Agreed but it isn't just the fact most people don't really understand statistics. Even for people who do understand them random stats don't mean anything without additional information. For example, there are off peak services on some lines I'm aware of where there could be a 200% increase in passengers and nobody would really notice because the current passenger numbers are so low. In isolation a 200% increase could easily be used for demands to increase the service level but if it just means every passenger now has 4 seats to themselves instead of 12 it clearly shouldn't.

 

[jayah]

Sophie Ridge, yesterday: 19:00onwards.

As well as the 40% claim

It is not quite that simple.

The latest data has journeys down 20%, pax km down 27% and revenue down 34% on 3 years ago.

Some of that is down to strikes and it is not the same as saying they have left, but revenue is easily down 40% on where it would have been had there not been COVID or strikes.

ORR Passenger Figures Oct-Dec 2022

 

[jayah]

Conventional thinking is new rolling stock increases passenger numbers, in normal times it's cost effective and I'm sure greater Anglia have notice this on the branch line services. The main line services might be a different story as WFH took hold but even that is busy now.

The sad truth is it will never be cost-effective on those rural lines.

They lose £10 for every £2 taken in fares. You would struggle to lease a pair of Class 756s for the fares taken for the 175k return journeys touching Yarmouth.

They are a step change in quality for sure, but cost effective!

 

[Richardr]

Right, so you think that every time some politician says something you will have the time and expertise to trawl through endless current data to determine if they are wrong or deliberately lying? You must have an awful lot of spare time to fill.

We are well off of the subject of this tread, so I'll make this my final comment on this.

Of course not, but firstly for items that I am interested in (and being on this forum the claim by a Cabinet Minister that rail usage is down 40% is an example) I would like to have the information, and not take what is said on face value. Secondly, having the information in the public domain means that Cabinet Ministers are less likely to lie, as someone is able to publicly fact check them.

 

[43066]

It isn't as though there aren't already checks and balances. There are select committees who are provided with additional information and hold the government to account.

You clearly don’t understand how select committees or the National Audit Office operate. They aren’t there to fact check ministers’ statements (luckily for Grant Shapps).

Even for people who do understand them random stats don't mean anything without additional information.

So you don’t think more detailed stats should be released, because they don’t mean anything without additional info, and checks and balances are in place. So basically we should all just shut up and blindly trust whatever the government tells us.

Yet you have nothing to say about a government minister lying in public, and being contradicted by stats already in the public domain.

I’m glad we cleared that up!

 

[Xavi]

Anytime Business revenue isn’t 38%.

Business revenue is at 38%. That’s quite a distinction

Fair enough. However, 38% being the total business revenue strengthens the case for ditching the current Anytime fares since off-peak business revenue will undoubtedly be less affected.

Suppose the old split of business revenue was 70 Anytime / 30 off-peak and off-peak business revenue has fallen 50%, then Anytime business revenue is down 67%. Figures only to demonstrate the maths.

 

[tomuk]

Fair enough. However, 38% being the total business revenue strengthens the case for ditching the current Anytime fares since off-peak business revenue will undoubtedly be less affected.

Suppose the old split of business revenue was 70 Anytime / 30 off-peak and off-peak business revenue has fallen 50%, then Anytime business revenue is down 67%. Figures only to demonstrate the maths.

Have you factored advances into your calculations?

 

[43066]

Fair enough. However, 38% being the total business revenue strengthens the case for ditching the current Anytime fares since off-peak business revenue will undoubtedly be less affected.

Suppose the old split of business revenue was 70 Anytime / 30 off-peak and off-peak business revenue has fallen 50%, then Anytime business revenue is down 67%. Figures only to demonstrate the maths.

It will depend on how much of the remaining business travel overlaps with commuter - ie has to take place at traditional “peak” times, and for which demand is more price inelastic. Presumably most of the business travel that could shift to off peak has already done so. Obviously this is the kind of number crunching that the economic advisors, analysts etc. that @Bald Rick mentioned earlier are charged with.