London’s newest train line is now also its busiest - The Economist, UK

[Fazaar1889]

London’s newest train line is now also its busiest

The startling success of the Elizabeth line

www.economist.com

The Elizabeth line, a train line which runs across London on its way from Essex to Reading, stopping at Slough on the way, opened a year ago this month. Britons have been travelling on it in vast numbers: almost one in six of all rail journeys are, according to data from the Office of Rail and Road, now made on this line.

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[Bartsimho]

As this seems to be the case it should be used to justify more development of rail infrastructure about London.

Although more probably the success of the route will be ignored when anything else is proposed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As this seems to be the case it should be used to justify more development of rail infrastructure about London.

It should also be used to justify more development of similar S-Bahn/Merseyrail style local rail in other cities, though I think we can be even more certain it in fact won't.

 

[Davester50]

Interesting headline. Once the old bit of Reading and Heathrow to Paddington numbers have been stripped out, what would it be?

 

[Bartsimho]

It should also be used to justify more development of similar S-Bahn/Merseyrail style local rail in other cities, though I think we can be even more certain it in fact won't.

I was thinking Paris RER type development as that is mainline through in tunnels. It would be something that would incorporate Thameslink and Great Northern as well into the network although that would be longer than the RER runs from Centre to Terminus

 

[JonathanH]

Interesting headline. Once the old bit of Reading and Heathrow to Paddington numbers have been stripped out, what would it be?

I think stripping out Romford to Liverpool Street might be more relevant.

That was probably, along with the once busier Wimbledon to Waterloo, already the busiest rail line.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The measure should surely be the aggregate usage of London's rail network, not just the Elizabeth Line in isolation.
Is it just a zero-sum situation where the same passengers are finding a new route to make their journey, for the same fare?
To complicate matters the impact is on the main line services as well, with fewer passengers using Paddington and Liverpool St terminals, and elsewhere.

 

[Davester50]

I think stripping out Romford to Liverpool Street might be more relevant.

That was probably, along with the once busier Wimbledon to Waterloo, already the busiest rail line.

Sorry, I did forget about that section. Oops!
Thanks for the correction

The headline is pretty meaningless. If you take two busy lines and join them together, what else would the sum be?

 

[43066]

That was probably, along with the once busier Wimbledon to Waterloo, already the busiest rail line.

It be interested to see any stats on that - it’s busy for sure, but I’d be surprised if any lines into Liv St. Exceeded the Southeastern Mainline into LBG, various lines in Waterloo, the MML from Harpenden inwards, etc.

@Bald Rick might know…

(It would also be interesting to know both pre and post Covid to see if there has been any change in relative busyness).

 

[yorksrob]

It should be used to justify halting a large proportion of the service cuts.

 

[Krokodil]

Build it and they will come, as they say. Now could they please take various sections of HS2 out of mothballs?

 

[TrenHotel]

It should be used to justify halting a large proportion of the service cuts.

Instead the Department for Transport and Southeastern have used the Elizabeth Line to justify carrying out service cuts.

 

[Thirteen]

I would imagine CR2 will be back on the cards and possibly the Bakerloo Line Extension.

 

[Fazaar1889]

Instead the Department for Transport and Southeastern have used the Elizabeth Line to justify carrying out service cuts.

Are...you joking...? Is this fr?? ahaha that's actually hilarious.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 May 2023 ==

I would imagine CR2 will be back on the cards and possibly the Bakerloo Line Extension.

I doubt CR2 is but bakerloo extension is already on the table no?

 

[TrenHotel]

I would imagine CR2 will be back on the cards and possibly the Bakerloo Line Extension.

Not under this government, however long they have left.

 

[dk1]

I think stripping out Romford to Liverpool Street might be more relevant.

And one of TfLs routes that recovered the fastest during 2020/2021

 

[43066]

I doubt CR2 is but bakerloo extension is already on the table no?

No. The project is on hold currently.

 

[Fazaar1889]

No. The project is on hold currently.

Ah

 

[yorksrob]

Instead the Department for Transport and Southeastern have used the Elizabeth Line to justify carrying out service cuts.

I think they're using anything to justify service cuts.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Instead the Department for Transport and Southeastern have used the Elizabeth Line to justify carrying out service cuts.

Surely it isn't a surprise that if the Elizabeth Line provides a more convenient route into Central London from Abbey Wood and Woolwich it will attract some custom off slower Southeastern services to London Bridge, etc.?

Just as Thameslink has attracted some traffic that used to pass via Victoria in past years or the Jubilee Line changed patterns of demand on the DLR.

 

[zwk500]

Are...you joking...? Is this fr?? ahaha that's actually hilarious.

You've not met the DfT much, have you? This is very much normal business from them.

(Separately, the logic of the EL being very busy justifying service cuts elsewhere is actually sound if you do it in a properly thought out manner, but the DfT are not doing that and are instead just waving a massive stick with '10%' written on it around various TOC head offices).

I doubt CR2 is but bakerloo extension is already on the table no?

Bakerloo was pushed a long way into the grass by COVID. It's a shame because SE London could really do with the connectivity to ease pressure on London Bridge. CR2 was also thrown into doubt, but given the strong bounceback on passenger numbers I wouldn't be surprised if it does firm up again. It'll still be 2050 before anything happens on CR2 though.

 

[Bald Rick]

It be interested to see any stats on that - it’s busy for sure, but I’d be surprised if any lines into Liv St. Exceeded the Southeastern Mainline into LBG, various lines in Waterloo, the MML from Harpenden inwards, etc.

@Bald Rick might know…

(It would also be interesting to know both pre and post Covid to see if there has been any change in relative busyness).

In terms of passenger numbers, I don’t know. It depends what you call a ‘line’. The erstwhile GE Metro was certainly busy, but no busier than the Southeatern Metro into London Bridge, or SWML long distance from Woking and beyond.

what is certain is that the total number of passengers using the Elizabeth Line is far, far more than were using the old GE Metro, local services into Paddington, and the Abbey Wood branch of Southeastern combined. My estimate is at least 3 times more.

 

[Mikey C]

In terms of passenger numbers, I don’t know. It depends what you call a ‘line’. The erstwhile GE Metro was certainly busy, but no busier than the Southeatern Metro into London Bridge, or SWML long distance from Woking and beyond.

what is certain is that the total number of passengers using the Elizabeth Line is far, far more than were using the old GE Metro, local services into Paddington, and the Abbey Wood branch of Southeastern combined. My estimate is at least 3 times more.

Many passengers will also have transferred from other lines, such as the Piccadilly and Central lines to the west of London, and the Central and District to the east.

 

[Bald Rick]

Many passengers will also have transferred from other lines, such as the Piccadilly and Central lines to the west of London, and the Central and District to the east.

no doubt. But they weren’t national rail passengers before.

 

[zwk500]

I suppose the key question, which we're unlikely to ever get a definitive answer on, is how many car journeys has the Elizabeth line eliminated.

Perhaps we might be able to estimate that from how TfL's overall ridership changed pre-and post-EL opening.

 

[Bartsimho]

I suppose the key question, which we're unlikely to ever get a definitive answer on, is how many car journeys has the Elizabeth line eliminated.

Perhaps we might be able to estimate that from how TfL's overall ridership changed pre-and post-EL opening.

I'd expect Sadiq Khan to boast about the number of car journey's saved at some point in the future so we probably will get a (sort of) answer.

 

[Krokodil]

Many passengers will also have transferred from other lines, such as the Piccadilly and Central lines to the west of London, and the Central and District to the east.

Well the Central line was barely coping, so a reduction in footfall there is a good thing. Has there actually been a sizeable drop in LU passengers though? I get the impression that the opening of the EL has stimulated new demand, rather than merely poaching.

 

[telstarbox]

It's very hard to measure the shift from cars. You could infer some of them by comparing the Census data from 2021 and 2031 (when it happens) and assuming EL use for some of the non-car journeys but that would only be a partial answer.

There is also the parallel processes of the ULEZ taking some vehicles out of London and the long term shift from industrial land use to residential redevelopment in Greater London. This tends to reduce car use.

I would expect the EL to replace some car / taxi trips to Heathrow from the GEML side as that would have been a multi change journey before. Less so to Zone 1 or Canary Wharf which are already PT heavy.

 

[AlterEgo]

The Elizabeth Line abstracts a lot of passengers from other modes (including buses in the eastern stretch). The key is actually journey opportunities and journey time. Woolwich is being quickly transformed by now suddenly being 8 minutes from Canary Wharf and 15 minutes from Liverpool Street.

 

[ijmad]

Given HS2 will be terminating at Old Oak Common for 5 years (or forever) and how many passengers the line is already carrying, I think at the very least TfL is going to need more rolling stock to take the line to 28 or 30tph. I also wonder how many more paths they could find in the western section where some of the overcrowding has been pretty bad.