2023 English and Northern Irish Local Elections

[jfollows]

I think there are many traditional Tory voters who were very much against Brexit who now find it difficult to know who to vote for. People who are very much centre-right, One Nation Conservatives, with views similar to people like Ken Clarke, now find it very difficult to vote for the Conservatives but would never vote Labour.

Wilmslow, which is relatively affluent and very much against Brexit, has voted for the independent Residents of Wilmslow grouping in - relatively - large numbers. RoW secured all the seats for county councillors and also all the seats on Wilmslow Town Council which was up for election at the same time, displacing Conservatives primarily as well as a retiring Liberal Democrat on the town council. Labour just didn't stand, so it's interesting tactically to see that although actually having some votes tabulated could have been interesting. In a general election, Labour usually comes second to Conservative in the Tatton constituency.

 

[nw1]

After the 1997 General Election it was possible to travel from Land’s End to John o’Groats and only pass through one Conservative-held constituency: Ryedale. If only…

Ah, ok, not Scarborough then (my guess).

 

[telstarbox]

I'm wondering whether it is anything to do with the leadership, whether Ed Davey is the right man for the time. He's 'reasonable', a 'safe pair of hands'. You can't imagine him doing anything outrageous, whereby the likes of Ashdown, Kennedy, Farron were always likely to come up with some policy which alienated voters. They also appear to be going back to the grass roots, 'local' politics. After years in the wilderness the LibDems locally seem to be making a come back (just after one of their stalwarts retired) winning some of the rural wards that had hitherto been Conservative



I voted Green for a similar reason. The candidate started leafletting the area around the autumn, about four or five in total. Nothing from Labour, LibDems did not stand. I rather get the impression that there was an (informal) arrangement for quite a few wards and we (Canterbury) have ended up with 18 Labour, 9 LibDem, 8 Conservative and 4 Green.

I would guess that in Canterbury and elsewhere in Kent, the left/centre parties have benefited from Londoners moving in since the last election and not being inclined to vote Tory. A combination of good trains, COVID workplace changes and continuing high housing costs have led many people to move out of London since the last comparable elections in 2019.

 

[Typhoon]

I would guess that in Canterbury and elsewhere in Kent, the left/centre parties have benefited from Londoners moving in since the last election and not being inclined to vote Tory. A combination of good trains, COVID workplace changes and continuing high housing costs have led many people to move out of London since the last comparable elections in 2019.

You are right but there is more than that.

In Canterbury the left/ centre have also benefited from a Conservative council leader who has failed to notice that a significant number of Conservative voters are towards the older end of the spectrum so are disinclined to vote for a party which seems to target motorists with a madcap road system which Rees Mogg, Farage and the Telegraph think is bonkers. A leader who seriously thinks we are going to get on our bikes to do our shopping. A leader who has been defeated in two successive elections - in 2019 he finished fifth in a three-seat ward (one Conservative, two LibDems elected), parachuted into a safe ward in a byelection; 2023 in a two seat ward he was fourth with less than 500 votes when those elected got over 1300). He lost the support of fellow councillors, some of whom he booted out, some of whom walked. Like others he doesn't seem to be able to see where things have gone wrong. The council leaders in Thanet and Folkestone & Hythe were similarly defeated.

Elsewhere, housing is an issue. There is the building on prime agricultural and 'green' land (yes, I know, nimbyism) but also building 'luxury' or 'stunning' properties out of the reach of locals but which attract DFLs (Darn from Lundun); a movement first put forward by the previous Mayor of London, some of these being second or weekend homes.

Councillors have gone on for years expecting people to re-elect them automatically, in some cases making token attempts at communication (one in my case) between elections; local meetings where councillors could be questioned were scrapped. This has coincided with the unpopularity of the Conservatives nationally with little acceptance that things have gone wrong - it is not just 'Covid' and 'Ukraine'. Sunak has at least started to take steps but Truss, Johnson and others are sniping in the wings. There will be more bad publicity this week with the Conservative Democratic organisation conference. This has resulted in Kent having more Labour councils than Conservative ones (these are the most likely ones - those with significant areas of low pay, who have elected Labour MPs in the past, but do have significant rural parts).

 

[brad465]

Labour had control of the council in Slough for many years. Noting how matters have gone nationally, is there any particular local issue there that caused Labour to lose so many councillors in this election. Anyone local to that area with information about it?

Slough council has gone effectively bankrupt. Before the usual criticisms about profligate and incompetent Labour and the praises for wise Conservative councils appear, I will just mention Northamptonshire, Thurrock, etc.

Also had the Tories got 25 more votes here they'd have got a majority on this council, so I'm wondering if voter ID introduction made a difference in preventing this? In any case there are usually outliers in a given election that go against the wider trend, Slough being the main one I'd say.

 

[MikeWM]

Also had the Tories got 25 more votes here they'd have got a majority on this council, so I'm wondering if voter ID introduction made a difference in preventing this? In any case there are usually outliers in a given election that go against the wider trend, Slough being the main one I'd say.

Leicester is another. Labour had 53 out of 54 councillors before the election, but lost 22 of them - 17 to the Conservatives!

 

[Gloster]

Well, the last result is now in. The Conservatives have lost their two seats representing Longbeck on Redcar & Cleveland Borough Council after three recounts. The local Police & Crime Commisioner, who has had questions raised about gaps in his CV, was one of those who failed to get elected: he was a long way short (in fifth), but his wife lost by four votes to an Independent. And of course it is part of the Tees Valley Mayoralty, which I am sure has nothing to do with anything.

 

[DarloRich]

Well, the last result is now in. The Conservatives have lost their two seats representing Longbeck on Redcar & Cleveland Borough Council after three recounts. The local Police & Crime Commisioner, who has had questions raised about gaps in his CV, was one of those who failed to get elected: he was a long way short (in fifth), but his wife lost by four votes to an Independent. And of course it is part of the Tees Valley Mayoralty, which I am sure has nothing to do with anything.

He has a police caution and was once a UKIP councillor before moving to the Tories.

The local media have been incredibly supine over what has been going on with the Tees Valley Mayor. @ainsworth74 will be able to offer more detailed information but I suggest posters buy a copy of Private Eye. There are articles every week about the Mayor and the Freeport.

There is also Tees Valley Monitor that does not pull any punches over what is happening on Teesside: https://www.teesvalleymonitor.com/

 

[ainsworth74]

Well, the last result is now in. The Conservatives have lost their two seats representing Longbeck on Redcar & Cleveland Borough Council after three recounts. The local Police & Crime Commisioner, who has had questions raised about gaps in his CV, was one of those who failed to get elected: he was a long way short (in fifth), but his wife lost by four votes to an Independent. And of course it is part of the Tees Valley Mayoralty, which I am sure has nothing to do with anything.

The Tories only held one seat, the other was held by an independent (who was re-elected) though, to be fair, they had been a Tory in 2019 but became an independent a couple of years ago as they quit in disgust, from memory, at the way some local planning issues were being railroaded through the relevant committee by the local Tories (I would have thought the behaviour of the national party was enough but either way!). So overall a loss of one seat for the Tories.

My local MP published a slightly entertaining take on the results locally that showed the Tories as having made six gains overall. More astute readers will have spotted that he was comparing April 2023 with the May 2023 election result and wondered why rather than the more tradition comparison with the previous election. The reason, in my opinion only, is because doing so makes it look better. If you compared with 2019 they would only have made one gain as they had eleven councillors on the local council after the 2019 election but managed to lose five of them to defections and by-election loses in the interim. So rather than a resurgence of the Tory vote they basically held steady with twelve following the recent election. Which I suppose in some respects is better than they might expect considering what's happened but still a rather different picture to that which my MP might want to paint...

Anyway, a most satisfactory result. Perhaps the PCC will focus on his day job now. Not like Cleveland Police are in special measures and were the first force to be rated inadequate or anything...

@ainsworth74 will be able to offer more detailed information but I suggest posters buy a copy of Private Eye. There are articles every week about the Mayor and the Freeport.

I'm not sure I can really add much but what I will say is that something isn't right about what's going on with Teesworks (the redevelopment of the all steelworks site) nor the Freeport itself. Perhaps it is all above board but there seems to be a very strong aversion to real scrutiny with the principles actors very quick to suggest ill intent by anyone who raises even basic questions about the various machinations which have led to a few private individuals being, seemingly, gifted massive stakes in land and scrap which is apparently being remediated at public expense. Whilst security and plant being used during some of this work is supplied by the relatives of the private developers even! Unfortunately, the local media have basically been turned into clickbait machines and are incapable of really doing any true investigative work whilst the national press (Private Eye exempted) are too busy focused on the Westminster psychodrama to worry about something being up on Teesside.

The Yorkshire Post have recently taken an interest following a slightly unhinged response to the editor of the YP on twitter from Simon Clarke (a local MP) when he asked a few questions about marine die off. Another running sore which the local Tories are very keen to suggest has nothing to do with the work ongoing on Teesside and will point to anything and everything to suggest that this is perfectly natural. Perhaps they're right but their extreme reactions do suggest that maybe something is afoot.

Watch this space! But whilst I have no evidence so this is purely my biased opinion I can't help but feel if we were reading about some of what's been going on up here in the context of another country we would be suggest that it was corrupt.

 

[DarloRich]

I'm not sure I can really add much but what I will say is that something isn't right about what's going on with Teesworks (the redevelopment of the all steelworks site) nor the Freeport itself.

Thank you - i should have said that Private Eye is covering both the Freeport & the Teeswork sites. I would also chuck the airport into the mix as well. Lots of public money involved in that site also.

The good news is that the make up of the overarching governance boards dealing with the Freeport, Teesworks and general Teesside development will change after the local elections allowing us to hope that there will be more scrutiny of all activities undertaken.

 

[ainsworth74]

I would also chuck the airport into the mix as well. Lots of public money involved in that site also.

Yes with further somewhat dubious ownership structures and an aversion to public scrutiny of millions of taxpayers money as with Teesworks.

Again, this could all be above board, but the way that the actors involved appear to be going to great lengths to avoid scrutiny and suggest ill intent behind any attempt to raise issues doesn't inspire confidence.

 

[jfollows]

The Times pointed out, apologies if it's been mentioned already, but it's quite telling:

• Reform stood 480 candidates and won 6 seats
• UKIP had almost 500 councillors in 2016 and now has 0

The latter could argue that their work is done, I guess, but the former shows that Rishi Sunak probably doesn't have a lot to fear from the right of his party currently.

UKIP was only defending 6 seats anyway, and lost them all. All Reform UK’s seats won are in Derby.

 

[birchesgreen]

The latter could argue that their work is done, I guess, but the former shows that Rishi Sunak probably doesn't have a lot to fear from the right of his party currently.

Not necessarily, how many Tory votes did Reform take away?

 

[nw1]

The Times pointed out, apologies if it's been mentioned already, but it's quite telling:

• Reform stood 480 candidates and won 6 seats
• UKIP had almost 500 councillors in 2016 and now has 0

The latter could argue that their work is done, I guess, but the former shows that Rishi Sunak probably doesn't have a lot to fear from the right of his party currently.

I do wonder, in that case, why he is pandering to the right (the usual explanation people give) and promoting the likes of Anderson and Braverman.

Either he's frightened of the right, or is part of the Tory right himself.

I wonder if the Tory local results would have been less dire had the party been led by someone who refused to pander to its right wing and was adopting more centrist policies. I suspect the answer is yes. In my ward, formerly a longstanding Tory ward, the Lib Dems got double the votes of the Tories, and I suspect part of that is that people here have had enough of reactionary right-wing policies. Sunak is an enabler of right-wing politics, and for me, that makes him little better than Boris. When you have the Archbishop of Canterbury (and a fairly middle-of-the-road one at that) arguing against the Illegal Migration Bill, that tells you all you need to know.

Put it this way, I will be very unhappy indeed if Sunak wins the next election. I would expect there to be five more years of right-wing policies, five more years of inaction on the things that really matter, and five more years moving not even one step closer to the EU. Basically, an entire decade lost.

If the Tories had a complete clear-out, installed a more middle of the road team ,and kicked all the right-wingers out, I would have significantly more hope of progress in all these areas.

 

[Gloster]

Either he's frightened of the right, or is part of the Tory right himself.

I think it is quite simply that the constituency parties are much more extreme than they were and have either chosen similarly extreme MPs or cowed the less extreme MPs into supporting extreme policies, even if they don’t believe in them. And of course they are quite a few MPs who are only in it for their own advancement and will go whichever way looks to best help their career. In turn, Sunak is reliant on these groups to stay at the head of the party and he isn’t big enough to challenge them. I don’t think he is as extreme as much of the party or its MPs, but he is well to the right of what the party was thirty years ago.

 

[nw1]

I think it is quite simply that the constituency parties are much more extreme than they were and have either chosen similarly extreme MPs or cowed the less extreme MPs into supporting extreme policies, even if they don’t believe in them. And of course they are quite a few MPs who are only in it for their own advancement and will go whichever way looks to best help their career. In turn, Sunak is reliant on these groups to stay at the head of the party and he isn’t big enough to challenge them. I don’t think he is as extreme as much of the party or its MPs, but he is well to the right of what the party was thirty years ago.

Indeed. Not for the first time, I long for the simple days of John Major. I didn't support, or vote for, the Tories even in this era, but looking back, with the exception of some right-wingers like Lilley, they were really quite middle-of-the-road. Rail privatisation seemed completely unnecessary, and I disliked the rhetoric of Lilley as social security secretary, but the overall mood was centre-right.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I do wonder, in that case, why he is pandering to the right (the usual explanation people give) and promoting the likes of Anderson and Braverman.

Most likely because he's not pandering to the right: He's doing what he believes needs to be done to solve the country's problems.

Speaking generally (not directed against you in particular), it never ceases to amaze me how much trouble people on the left seem to have understanding the concept that people on the right are simply following what they believe to be best, and that what people on the right believe to be the best solution happens not to be the same as what people on the left think is the best solution. So instead we get all this complicated nonsense about conservatives supposedly pandering to something or doing something that they (allegedly) know is wrong just to get votes - which always seems to ignore the most obvious and simplest explanation for whatever the Government is doing: That the Government is doing what it believes is correct.

(Which isn't to deny that all politicians of whatever side do on occasions need to make compromises or accommodate different wings of their parties etc.)

 

[MikeWM]

Indeed. Not for the first time, I long for the simple days of John Major. I didn't support, or vote for, the Tories even in this era, but looking back, with the exception of some right-wingers like Lilley, they were really quite middle-of-the-road. Rail privatisation seemed completely unnecessary, and I disliked the rhetoric of Lilley as social security secretary, but the overall mood was centre-right.

Not really. Look at the 1994 Criminal Justice Act, for example, which was pretty much the starting gun of the attacks on civil liberties - that New Labour picked up and accelerated so dramatically.

Probably the best thing that can be said about the Major government is that Ken Clarke did a pretty good job as chancellor.

 

[nw1]

Most likely because he's not pandering to the right: He's doing what he believes needs to be done to solve the country's problems.

Why, in that case, has he picked right-wing figures such as Braverman and Anderson? Surely these people are not needed to solve the country's problems. Why can't he install someone closer to the centre as Home Secretary, rather than a hard-right tub-thumper who sounds off about "tofu-eating wokerati"? Why has he installed someone who suggests that republicans should emigrate (for clarity, I am not a republican, but I dislike Anderson's authoritarianism on this matter), who believes people can make a meal for 30p, who is constantly slagging off the "woke", and who appears to believe in hard labour as a punishment for nuisance neighbours?

These appointments do not strike me as something that would be done by a middle-of-the-road person with the country's best interests at heart, and are actively confrontational towards the liberal and left.

Speaking generally (not directed against you in particular), it never ceases to amaze me how much trouble people on the left seem to have understanding the concept that people on the right are simply following what they believe to be best, and that what people on the right believe to be the best solution happens not to be the same as what people on the left think is the best solution. So instead we get all this complicated nonsense about conservatives supposedly pandering to something or doing something that they (allegedly) know is wrong just to get votes - which always seems to ignore the most obvious and simplest explanation for whatever the Government is doing: That the Government is doing what it believes is correct.

Speaking as someone who is cynical about most senior politicians to a greater or lesser degree (but of course some more than others), I would say that's the naive explanation for whatever the government is doing. All Sunak cares about, IMO, is their performance in the 2024 election. They somehow believe they can win the next election using the same strategy as last time: a coalition of the reactionary populist right and economic conservatives. Except that I believe this strategy is foolish, for them as well as for the country as a whole: next time, we have a more middle of the road Labour leader and a much weaker Tory leader, so I think, or at least hope, the numbers won't add up. As I've said above, my ward has a lot of people who are economically relatively conservative, but socially liberal - and the Tories did abysmally last week.

And yes, I believe Labour sometimes had ulterior motives during their time in power too, I don't think they're ideologically pure either (though IMO very much better than the current lot).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Why, in that case, has he picked right-wing figures such as Braverman and Anderson? Surely these people are not needed to solve the country's problems.

Well for Braverman, I would say in some respects she is precisely what is needed. What you see as right-wing extremism in many of her beliefs, I see as someone who is willing to speak unpopular hard truths that need to be said, and to take necessary but unpopular decisions and take the flak for it - and those are very good qualities to have in a home secretary. So I have no problem thinking that, in all likelihood she is there because she's seen as the right person for the job.

Lee Anderson is more interesting, since he does on occasion say things that, taken literally, are pretty silly. He seems to me to be the Tories' version of Jon Prescott (except that, unlike Prescott, I don't think he's actually got involved in a fist-fight as an MP? ) I think to some extent he also says things that are hard truths that need to be said, but he frequently says them in silly, over-exaggerated ways that are not really appropriate for an MP. I can believe that his appointment as Tory deputy-chairman may well be in part to appeal to working class red wall voters who are more comfortable with that kind of way of speaking. Having said that, my understanding is that Tory deputy-chairman is basically an organisational role that doesn't really have anything to do with policy making. For all you or I know, maybe he's quite good at organisational stuff?

Why can't he install someone closer to the centre as Home Secretary, rather than a hard-right tub-thumper who sounds off about "tofu-eating wokerati"?

You mean someone who is closer to your own views? Wouldn't that be a bit like - if Keir Starmer wins in 2024 - a Tory supporter asking why Keir can't appoint a home secretary who's closer to Tory views? In the end, 3 years ago the UK elected a Tory Government (Not a centrist Government. A Tory Government). An obvious consequence of that is we're going to get Tory policies for a few years!

Why has he installed someone who suggests that republicans should emigrate (for clarity, I am not a republican,

Yes that was one of his stupider comments. I can't condone that particular remark.

These appointments do not strike me as something that would be done by a middle-of-the-road person with the country's best interests at heart, and are actively confrontational towards the liberal and left

But those appointments could have been made by someone with right-wing views (Kinda goes with being leader of a right-wing political party ) who has the country's best interests at heart.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Well for Braverman, I would say in some respects she is precisely what is needed. What you see as right-wing extremism in many of her beliefs, I see as someone who is willing to speak unpopular hard truths that need to be said, and to take necessary but unpopular decisions and take the flak for it - and those are very good qualities to have in a home secretary. So I have no problem thinking that, in all likelihood she is there because she's seen as the right person for the job.

There is a pretty damn clear difference between someone who wants to implement specific policies and someone who wants to do that and also deliberately antagonize the general public by using phrases like "tofu-eating wokerati" and stoke up racism by using words like "invasion" when talking about asylum seakers. Its worth saying even Tory MP's think her language is a problem - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-hit-out-at-suella-bravermans-racist-rhetoric

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Speaking as someone who is cynical about most senior politicians to a greater or lesser degree (but of course some more than others), I would say that's the naive explanation for whatever the government is doing. All Sunak cares about, IMO, is their performance in the 2024 election. They somehow believe they can win the next election using the same strategy as last time: a coalition of the reactionary populist right and economic conservatives. Except that I believe this strategy is foolish, for them as well as for the country as a whole: next time, we have a more middle of the road Labour leader and a much weaker Tory leader, so I think, or at least hope, the numbers won't add up. As I've said above, my ward has a lot of people who are economically relatively conservative, but socially liberal - and the Tories did abysmally last week.

And yes, I believe Labour sometimes had ulterior motives during their time in power too, I don't think they're ideologically pure either (though IMO very much better than the current lot).

What the Tories are banking on and i would say its credible scenario is that one Tory vote has the potential to go to 3 different parties (Lab, LB & Green) and i currently i see no attempt by LDs and Greens to attempt to support selective withdrawal to ensure that the Tory incumbent doesn't retain the seat by default. I know you can't use local elections but in my council the avowed in intention of those three was the Tory should be removed from running the council but they didn't collaborate. Nett impact was Torys lost one seat and are still in control but in four other wards the vote went three ways and the torys held on despite massive swing away from them. This is the risk at the next general election and with Labour pretty policy less currently my view is will work against them the closer we get The Liberals and the Greens offer even less compelling visions but plenty of people want an alternative to teh Torys so will compromise their principles but need to be given a single choice.

 

[nw1]

What the Tories are banking on and i would say its credible scenario is that one Tory vote has the potential to go to 3 different parties (Lab, LB & Green) and i currently i see no attempt by LDs and Greens to attempt to support selective withdrawal to ensure that the Tory incumbent doesn't retain the seat by default. I know you can't use local elections but in my council the avowed in intention of those three was the Tory should be removed from running the council but they didn't collaborate. Nett impact was Torys lost one seat and are still in control but in four other wards the vote went three ways and the torys held on despite massive swing away from them. This is the risk at the next general election and with Labour pretty policy less currently my view is will work against them the closer we get The Liberals and the Greens offer even less compelling visions but plenty of people want an alternative to teh Torys so will compromise their principles but need to be given a single choice.

It doesn't necessarily need parties to stand aside though.

People just need to know what the most credible alternative to the Tories is, in their constituency. I think in many, or even most, cases that is pretty clear cut, e.g. in most cases, Home Counties and South West = Lib Dem; Midlands, North and most of Wales (also much of Kent) = Labour.

Plus I think there will be a big tactical voting push by independent, non-partisan (but anti-Tory) groups.

Also in the local elections, tactical voting did in fact appear to be in evidence. Your council sounds atypical; there were plenty of very sharp swings away from the Tories and plenty of cases where that swing was in one direction. I suspect that the local elections were primarily against the Tories rather than for the other parties in many cases (notwithstanding the Lib Dems' reputation for doing well on local issues), and they were of course disastrous for the Tories. Repeat that in a GE and I suspect a lot of more marginal Tory seats will switch.

Plus, a Tory win next time will mean almost 20 years of Tory government. I suspect many people "in the middle" don't like the idea of one party ruling for so long, and just fancy a change - and given Starmer's Labour is pretty middle of the road (look at the recent posts in the Labour thread), they're not going to actively put off that many. It's not exactly as if Sunak is particularly appealing; he's no Johnson in the sense that he won't attract casual votes by personality alone. The only critique I have of Labour is that they're not pro-EU enough, but I can see why they are doing that (they perhaps rightly see that they can only win if they get Brexiter votes).

 

[Snow1964]

The Northern Ireland elections are now in, Sinn Fein now biggest party on the 5 Councils adjoining Irish border plus Belfast.

Sinn Fein got 30.9% 144 seats (+39 seats)
Democratic Unionists 23.3% 122 seats (same)
Alliance (centre party) 13.3% 67 seats (+14)
Ulster Unionists 10.9% 54 seats (-21 seats)

Sort of suggests large parts of Northern Ireland are seeing themselves more towards Ireland than England, and only the four north Eastern coastal counties would prefer UK

 

[Gloster]

The Northern Ireland elections are now in, Sinn Fein now biggest party on the 5 Councils adjoining Irish border plus Belfast.

Sinn Fein got 30.9% 144 seats (+39 seats)
Democratic Unionists 23.3% 122 seats (same)
Alliance (centre party) 13.3% 67 seats (+14)
Ulster Unionists 10.9% 54 seats (-21 seats)

Sort of suggests large parts of Northern Ireland are seeing themselves more towards Ireland than England, and only the four north Eastern coastal counties would prefer UK

Personally, I don’t think that a lot can be drawn from these results. However, I will mention two things that I think it hints at. Sinn Fein has now become tolerable to a larger part of the electorate than just its old, hard core supporters, and a number of people are fed up with the Unionist‘s intransigent attitude towards the Brexit agreements and see it as the main obstacle to getting the Assembly functioning again.

 

[THC]

Personally, I don’t think that a lot can be drawn from these results. However, I will mention two things that I think it hints at. Sinn Fein has now become tolerable to a larger part of the electorate than just its old, hard core supporters, and a number of people are fed up with the Unionist‘s intransigent attitude towards the Brexit agreements and see it as the main obstacle to getting the Assembly functioning again.

A reasonable analysis although I think you underplay the SF evolution - thanks to Mary Lou and Michelle, both persuasive political operators untainted by involvement in the Troubles, it is looking more and more like a party of government both north and south. In this it is ably assisted in the six counties by political unionism's inability to articulate a progressive case for retaining the Union and unwillingness to play second fiddle to SF at Stormont.

The tide is turning and these results are the latest evidence that the case for a border poll is slowly but inexorably building. Tick tock...

THC