Formal offer to ASLEF by RDG

[Dougal2345]

Regards the strikes, and now knowing that the RMT is targeting the Eurovision Song Contest while ASLEF goes after the cup final in order to annoy the traveling public, just consider that without public support for strikes there is no incentive for the government to compromise (there's no votes in it).

Yes I had a similar thought over in the RMT thread:
"But what seems mean spirited about both these strikes is the way they target events that are essentially fun - music and football. Is it my imagination, or did strikes used to focus on disrupting business? A rail strike on a weekday, difficulty getting to work... Unpleasant yes, but you soldier on through it. But now they stop you enjoying your free time on Saturdays, stop you getting to the events you enjoy...."

 

[Goldfish62]

But they'll be most likely out of government next year so the war of attrition isn't going to give them much time to do that. The unions are trying to wait it out until then.

Worryingly, I don't the outcome of the next GE is a given by any means.

 

[The Planner]

In 1975, when I was married, there were numerous private housebuilding schemes by companies such as Wimpey and these were being quickly snapped up. Why mention the Government in such a scenario? Incidentally, guess which government was in power in 1975.

In terms of wages though, what was the multiplier needed to afford a mortgage in 1975 vs 2023? What could people afford on an average wage housing wise then vs now?

 

[Krokodil]

Worryingly, I don't the outcome of the next GE is a given by any means.

It doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always gets in.

 

[gazzaa2]

Worryingly, I don't the outcome of the next GE is a given by any means.

It's certainly not a lock, but odds are for a change of government, whether it be a coalition or a Labour government.

 

[deltic]

Exactly. Take the public sector average wage rises, cited at 5.3% by the ONS:

Average weekly earnings in Great Britain - Office for National Statistics

Estimates of growth in earnings for employees before tax and other deductions from pay.

www.ons.gov.uk

Now I am very certain nobody in my sector / grades have had average wage rises anywhere near to this. So understanding how this figure was arrived at rather than just taking it at face value is vital.

As the ONS states this data is not reporting wage rises but also reflects changes in the composition of the workforce, hours worked etc.

 

[dk1]

Is there any chance at all that the ASLEF strikes could be called off, or is that unlikely? It would be a shame to have to cancel a trip, only to find out the strikes will not be happening.

Also do you think ASLEF could strike on June 2nd?

There is no reason ASLEF couldn’t announce another strike on the 2nd but as there is one already planned the next day & two days previously, it’s highly unlikely. I’d like it to be called off as don’t want to strike but who knows? All depends on the RDG & with their previous track record there’s little hope left.

 

[FenMan]

Yes I had a similar thought over in the RMT thread:
"But what seems mean spirited about both these strikes is the way they target events that are essentially fun - music and football. Is it my imagination, or did strikes used to focus on disrupting business? A rail strike on a weekday, difficulty getting to work... Unpleasant yes, but you soldier on through it. But now they stop you enjoying your free time on Saturdays, stop you getting to the events you enjoy...."

Saturday, 3rd June is Derby Day at Epsom.

I don't get it either that strike action is mainly focused on Saturdays. I suppose disrupting the maximum number of discretionary travellers and delivering the minimum financial pain to the DfT is a plan, but I'd strongly argue it's not the right one. Tuesdays and Thursdays would be far more effective.

 

[deltic]

Saturday, 3rd June is Derby Day at Epsom.

I don't get it either that strike action is mainly focused on Saturdays. I suppose disrupting the maximum number of discretionary travellers and delivering the minimum financial pain to the DfT is a plan, but I'd strongly argue it's not the right one. Tuesdays and Thursdays would be far more effective.

Given a very high proportion of rail commuters can work from home, it makes more sense to target weekends when high profile events are taking place as that gets larger media exposure. No point in striking if no-one notices you are doing it.

 

[Sleepy]

We have the Riviera Sleeper booked from Paddington at 23.45pm on Friday 2 June, arriving in St Ives (changing at St Erth) at about 8am on the Saturday morning. Is it reasonably safe to say that that service is not going to run, assuming the strike goes ahead?

If the strike goes ahead it's unlikely to run judging by previous strikes (the day after).

 

[Topological]

Given a very high proportion of rail commuters can work from home, it makes more sense to target weekends when high profile events are taking place as that gets larger media exposure. No point in striking if no-one notices you are doing it.

It does blur boundaries somewhat.

Where strikes hit commuters there is a sense they are hitting "big business" and that the strikes are doing more to affect "them" in the "them" and "us" dichotomy. No matter which way it is cut I cannot see how affecting high profile events has the same sense of alignment with any perceived class struggle.

Ultimately all these strikes are doing is costing members pay because there is very little doubt that the Tories are not moving and that even if there is movement rail disputes will be far down the list of movements to make. It is for others to judge whether the sacrifice is worthwhile.

 

[FenMan]

Given a very high proportion of rail commuters can work from home, it makes more sense to target weekends when high profile events are taking place as that gets larger media exposure. No point in striking if no-one notices you are doing it.

Then we'll have to agree to disagree on this. I will point out though the current strategy - targeting Saturdays and holiday times - has been running for nine months and has not resulted in any substantive movement from the employers/government, while public sympathy is on the wane.

This simply does not look like a winning plan, when winning is surely the aim?

 

[Wyrleybart]

Worryingly, I don't the outcome of the next GE is a given by any means.

Me neither. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since Labour were last in power and I think Corbyn, and to a lesser degree Starmer, have not done the party and the supporters any favours.

 

[yorksrob]

Me neither. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since Labour were last in power and I think Corbyn, and to a lesser degree Starmer, have not done the party and the supporters any favours.

A lot of water has passed under the bridge since the Conservative party was elected.

 

[Wyrleybart]

A lot of water has passed under the bridge since the Conservative party was elected.

Also very true.

 

[Graham H]

Apart from the disruption, I see the coach companies have immediately hiked prices to cash in. Yesterday morning 4 people Victoria to Portsmouth on 12th May could be done for £18 or £84 fully flexible. Now its £109.20 cheapest for 4 and fully flex is £161.20. Glad I booked yesterday as soon as strike was announced !

 

[ar10642]

In terms of wages though, what was the multiplier needed to afford a mortgage in 1975 vs 2023? What could people afford on an average wage housing wise then vs now?

It's about as bad as it's ever been (scroll down for UK) https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/

 

[JonathanH]

Apart from the disruption, I see the coach companies have immediately hiked prices to cash in.

Are you sure it isn't just that all the capacity has already been booked up? The algorithms could well be set such that a surge in bookings leads to a quicker hike in the prices, without the coach companies having to do anything.

 

[KGX]

Then we'll have to agree to disagree on this. I will point out though the current strategy - targeting Saturdays and holiday times - has been running for nine months and has not resulted in any substantive movement from the employers/government, while public sympathy is on the wane.

This simply does not look like a winning plan, when winning is surely the aim?

It’s a difficult situation. In a post Covid world the weekday strikes are not effective as white collar workers can work from home. Less pressure on the Gov as no public outcry as workers want the excuse to WFH. Hospitality sector suffers but doesn’t seem to carry that much weight with Gov. So target the weekend leisure market, but Gov doesn’t really care about that and public are accustomed to weekend disruption due to historic weekend engineering. Again, Hospitality sector suffers but doesn’t seem to carry that much weight with Gov. Strikes are not working.

Also, to get a response from Gov it’s about what happens in London. As we all know, central Gov can’t see beyond London. So you need to look at in the London context. National rail London commuter market has been slowest to recover, so again strikes are just not having the impact the would have done pre-Covid. Those SE commuters are probably over represented in the WFH market.

 

[Graham H]

Are you sure it isn't just that all the capacity has already been booked up? The algorithms could well be set such that a surge in bookings leads to a quicker hike in the prices, without the coach companies having to do anything.

I dont think so. I see the fully flex ticket that I bought that can be cancelled and amended as akin to the Anytime version on the railways. I assume someone more knowledgeable than me will know if the coach company (National Express in this case) has its tickets regulated in any way so that a Fully Flexible ticket has a defined price in the coach equivalent of the fares manual. If not then of course you could be correct and like Eurostar they have a set number of tickets at certain prices. The fully flex ticket is now more expensive than the equivalent anytime train fare though of course there wont be any trains !

 

[Goldfish62]

I dont think so. I see the fully flex ticket that I bought that can be cancelled and amended as akin to the Anytime version on the railways. I assume someone more knowledgeable than me will know if the coach company (National Express in this case) has its tickets regulated in any way so that a Fully Flexible ticket has a defined price in the coach equivalent of the fares manual. If not then of course you could be correct and like Eurostar they have a set number of tickets at certain prices. The fully flex ticket is now more expensive than the equivalent anytime train fare though of course there wont be any trains !

National Express fares are indeed completely unregulated.

 

[RailExplorer]

My views on this whole negotiation disaster - as a non union driver at a TOC not in dispute.

I personally dropped out of ASLEF some time ago now (start of COVID restrictions). Thankfully my TOC is not in dispute but I would be thinking long and hard whether I would get involved with any future disputes, if one did arise (currently at the start of pay talks at my TOC).

ASLEF (and RMT) supported WFH and it's truly come back to bite as striking on a weekday means nothing for most office workers. I dropped out of ASLEF because I didn't support the WFH stance (it destroyed a family business of 20 years) and it's now destroying most railway jobs. My wife is an office worker, who used to commute 5 days a week. She now commutes a maximum of 1 day per week and that doesn't appear to be changing. If I absolutely must get involved with strikes, then I really hope that they are on a Saturday as I can at least spend some time with the family whilst on an unpaid day off.

The good days of RPI pay rises are over. I have accepted that. I just hope that I get a few percent each year with no huge changes to T&C's, although some changes are expected as the business adapts to new ways of working. There will be slow erosions of T&C's over some years (in any other business this would simply be called business adaptations to new and more efficient ways of working), with minimal pay rises in my opinion and with training requirements being squeezed down to minimums and potentially things like you pay for your own training will start (similar to what happened in the aviation industry). We had a good thing going but the COVID restrictions destroyed that permanently. There's no coming back from that.

I already work DOO, have a work iPad with emails, work Sundays and 50% Saturdays so not that much more can be added at my TOC for now. We have been asked to decrease our notice for our daily sheets from 48 hours to 24 hours - I could settle for something in the middle I think. I can potentially see remote booking on but it's probably not really worth it at our TOC. We've started with Auto Reverse now too meaning more work in the diagram as the turnaround time has essentially gone from 7 minutes to zero minutes.

For now the job is still worth it. When it no longer is, I'll be be looking for alternatives and the exit.

 

[Moderating team]

We have decided to lock this thread as everyone has now had a chance to have their say and there appears to be nothing else left to discuss until there are any further developments.

As ever if anyone requires travel advice for any of the strike periods then they can start a thread in Trip Planning and Reports.

thanks all