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UK Rail Passenger Numbers Discussion

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philosopher

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It's worth noting that the revenue and journey figures are against 77% train kilometres from 3 years ago and 81% vehicle kilometres. Therefore 73% passenger journeys isn't nearly as bad comparing against 100%.
What I'm trying to say (not sure I'm doing it well) is that some cuts have already been made in services and carriage lengths so the reduction in journeys/revenue is against a slightly smaller reduction in train services/vehicle kilometres.
Whether increasing services would increase the usage is the multi million pound debate
The Oct to Dec quarter was probably the quarter most impacted by strikes last year. Chiltern for example were not running service north of Banbury for several weeks. Though looking at those tables, I am surprised Southwest trains managed to run 82% of services.

So I am not sure how useful it is compare the 2022 Oct to Dec quarter service levels with that of 2019 service levels.
 
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Richardr

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Aren't some of these stats, especially ones like the proportion of types of ticket, distorted somewhat by the addition of the Elizabeth line into these, and the number of journeys on that line. By journey I would suspect [without direct evidence!] that the inclusion of that line would reduce the proportion of season tickets even if everything else was the same.

Now that won't account for most of the fall, but will be part of the story.
 

Meerkat

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That's what I've been trying to say on here re. XC yet you continue to claim that better matching supply to demand will impact profitability so it shouldn't happen.
Two different stages. Firstly ignore the national stats and look at specific ridership levels. But then consider that increased ridership might not be marginally profitable and therefore require yet more subsidy
t isn’t because “levelling up” supposedly includes aspects of railway investment.

With respect you’ve (again) completely missed the point I was making: it isn’t a zero sum game. I don’t think you really understand how public finances work.
Explain then. Levelling up the north requires major funding, which will be funded disproportionately by London and the south.
If you understand that, then it should be obvious why reducing services to stick to an arbitrary level of subsidy, rather than tailoring them to demand, is rather irrational, and focussing on entirely the wrong part of the cost/benefit equation.
You seem to assume that more passengers is a benefit worthy of subsidy. That is not given and depends on who those passengers are and what they are doing.
Agree a couple of percent more would have settled it and paid for itself but maybe now they've moved the bar up for NHS an improved offer will be authorised.
Wasnt the 'settlement would be cheaper' statement a 'this year' thing, rather than the long term cost of pay rises (which are considerable and cumulative - hence why the private sector likes putting money in bonuses rather than pay rises). And I think expecting rail workers to be treated like nurses will only lead to disappointment - there is much greater public sympathy for the nurses, and a shortage of them.
 

BRX

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You seem to assume that more passengers is a benefit worthy of subsidy. That is not given and depends on who those passengers are and what they are doing.
What would be your criteria for subsidy-worthiness?
 

Meerkat

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What would be your criteria for subsidy-worthiness?
I disagree with the railway enthusiast assumption that all rail travel is worthy of subsidy, and therefore more passengers is good even if it requires even more subsidy.
A debate on what is subsidy-worthy would be a matter for a new thread.
 

BRX

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I disagree with the railway enthusiast assumption that all rail travel is worthy of subsidy, and therefore more passengers is good even if it requires even more subsidy.
A debate on what is subsidy-worthy would be a matter for a new thread.
It seems like you need to define it at least very broadly in order to pursue the argument being had in this thread. In reality I don't think there are many people, even rail enthusiasts, who think any kind of rail travel whatsoever deserves subsidy.
 

Snow1964

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It's worth noting that the revenue and journey figures are against 77% train kilometres from 3 years ago and 81% vehicle kilometres. Therefore 73% passenger journeys isn't nearly as bad comparing against 100%.
What I'm trying to say (not sure I'm doing it well) is that some cuts have already been made in services and carriage lengths so the reduction in journeys/revenue is against a slightly smaller reduction in train services/vehicle kilometres.
Whether increasing services would increase the usage is the multi million pound debate

I was intrigued comparing table 2.2 where journeys are over 10% further on Northern, GWR, TfW

.... to table 4.1 which shows percentage of 2019 operated. Northern just 70%, GWR 90%, TfW 88%.

Wonder why average distance traveled has gone up, but fewer services, not like there has been a move to more longer distance trains on these 3 franchises.

Proves a one size fits all approach is not appropriate

 

Trainbike46

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I was intrigued comparing table 2.2 where journeys are over 10% further on Northern, GWR, TfW

.... to table 4.1 which shows percentage of 2019 operated. Northern just 70%, GWR 90%, TfW 88%.

Wonder why average distance traveled has gone up, but fewer services, not like there has been a move to more longer distance trains on these 3 franchises.

Proves a one size fits all approach is not appropriate

Northern is almost certainly displaced passengers from TPE, which on average has longer distance passengers

GWR may be because of a loss of short distance passengers to Elizabeth line, combined with fewer (short-distance) commuters and more (long-distance) leisure travellers

No clue about what is going on at TfW though
 

jon0844

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It should be a national scandal that these cuts are being driven through on 90-100% passenger numbers (on the back of the most unreliable service for decades).

There seems to be little real scrutiny of the Government over this.

I said ages ago that if we renationalised the railway, the Government would be less likely to invest in the railway but seek to cut costs - and that's exactly what is happening now. Sure, we haven't got true nationalisation, but not far off.

Covid obviously wasn't planned for in any predictions, but as workers are increasingly being asked back into the office OR have got sufficiently bored of working from home, the numbers of people returning to work is growing all the time. At the moment, more flexible working is seeing a drop on mostly Monday and Friday, or people being able to travel after the morning peak, but even that is likely to balance out in time.

Also, people who go to work/start travelling to work after 0930 may opt to return to an early start to get more time in the evening, and so on.

I do believe that Covid gives the Government the necessary ammunition to carry out the cuts though, and some will be brutal.

Perhaps now we can see how people accepted the Beeching cuts, being convinced that the car was the future of travel, as now they accept the cuts on account of a perceived reduction in usage that will likely recover if given time.

Once people go back to the office more often than not, season tickets will become popular again, and peak tickets will be sold more when people don't wait until off-peak to travel. That may not happen immediately, but I think we'll see a shift within the year.

Oh, and also what I've said before, a reduction in fraud with e-tickets and the like (refunds and short faring, or only buying a ticket when seeing staff etc) may also see a positive uplift. As TOCs and the Trainline each start to use their data to clamp down, I don't think we can underestimate the scale of the problem.
 
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robert thomas

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Two different stages. Firstly ignore the national stats and look at specific ridership levels. But then consider that increased ridership might not be marginally profitable and therefore require yet more subsidy

Explain then. Levelling up the north requires major funding, which will be funded disproportionately by London and the south.

You seem to assume that more passengers is a benefit worthy of subsidy. That is not given and depends on who those passengers are and what they are doing.

Wasnt the 'settlement would be cheaper' statement a 'this year' thing, rather than the long term cost of pay rises (which are considerable and cumulative - hence why the private sector likes putting money in bonuses rather than pay rises). And I think expecting rail workers to be treated like nurses will only lead to disappointment - there is much greater public sympathy for the nurses, and a shortage of them.
Up till now the rest of the country seems to have disproportionalely funded London and the south east
 

Nicholas Lewis

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It's worth noting that the revenue and journey figures are against 77% train kilometres from 3 years ago and 81% vehicle kilometres. Therefore 73% passenger journeys isn't nearly as bad comparing against 100%.
What I'm trying to say (not sure I'm doing it well) is that some cuts have already been made in services and carriage lengths so the reduction in journeys/revenue is against a slightly smaller reduction in train services/vehicle kilometres.
Whether increasing services would increase the usage is the multi million pound debate
This qtr has a lot of issues with strike days, rdw disputes and crew sickness levels above long run average causing a much higher level of cancellation which have thus lowered vehicle mileage and revenue so not sure its reflecting true trend. Even yesterday with the reduced strike service i was pleasantly surprised how many people were waiting for my Thameslink service into London mid morning so if we can just return to stability revenue will push upwards.
 

lammergeier

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I disagree with the railway enthusiast assumption that all rail travel is worthy of subsidy, and therefore more passengers is good even if it requires even more subsidy.
A debate on what is subsidy-worthy would be a matter for a new thread.
Another straw man. Nobody is suggesting all rail travel is worthy of subsidy.
 

yorksrob

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I know road travel isn't subsidised, but imagine if it were. Would we be trying to differentiate between journeys "worthy" of subsidy ?

Fred driving to work is ok, but Doris being driven to bingo is somehow unworthy "because it is a mere leisure journey" in spite of the fact that it might be Doris' only interaction with her friends and therefore vital to her wellbeing ?

Only the "you're only worth paying to go down't mill" mentality seen on here suggests that we should consider railway journeys by their "worthieness" in this way.
 

Krokodil

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The net tax/spending data does not support that theory.
State spending doesn't exist to give people back the value of their taxes. It exists to provide services for all. Public transport spending per capita is considerably higher in London than elsewhere. The average Londoner gets nearly twice the national average, three times what gets spent on the average East Midlander.
 

The Ham

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State spending doesn't exist to give people back the value of their taxes. It exists to provide services for all. Public transport spending per capita is considerably higher in London than elsewhere. The average Londoner gets nearly twice the national average, three times what gets spent on the average East Midlander.

Quick question, is that total government spending or net government spending?

As I understand it government spending would include all TfL spending but none of the income, as such unless TfL has started not charging for tickets it's a bit of a biased comparison.

Several years ago, if SWT had the same per km subsidy as TPE they would have had enough money to have built Crossrail 2 after about 10 years.
 

The exile

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Another straw man. Nobody is suggesting all rail travel is worthy of subsidy.
About the only use of railways that isn't at least arguably worthy of some degree of subsidy (if necessary) is the "meta-use" - ie railway enthusiasts travelling by train for the sake of travelling by train and not actually spending anything at a destination. Everything else potentially (important word) either removes cars from the road or contributes to economic or social well-being. Now, the degree to which different benefits are worth subsidising is a different matter....
 

BRX

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I know road travel isn't subsidised,
It is subsidised though! It completely relies on loads of publicly provided and paid for infrastructure, and not just physical infrastructure.
 

yorksrob

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It is subsidised though! It completely relies on loads of publicly provided and paid for infrastructure, and not just physical infrastructure.

I think it's more that Motorists seem to cough up enough tax to cover it. That seems to have been the conclusion on previous threads anyway.
 

Krokodil

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Several years ago, if SWT had the same per km subsidy as TPE they would have had enough money to have built Crossrail 2 after about 10 years.
If the North had received the sort of capital investment the South had, then the operating subsidy per pax km would be lower. At least they finally seem to have stopped dithering about electrifying one of the routes over the Pennines.
 

Watershed

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Road travel is being effectively subsidised with the continual freezing of fuel duties.
Not just that, but the fact that almost all roads are toll-free, let alone any attempt to make people contribute their a fair share towards the pollution and traffic they cause. Of course any such move would be wildly unpopular, not to mention unfeasible given how poor public transport is in the UK.
 

OrangeJuice

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I think it's more that Motorists seem to cough up enough tax to cover it. That seems to have been the conclusion on previous threads anyway.
Agreed Fuel duty is quite a high rate of tax and effectively is a distance based tax too, because the more miles you drive more petrol you buy so more tax paid. How the government replaces that tax income particularly for electric cars is a future debate for not just funding roads but also the hole it will leave in treasury finances
 

Meerkat

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About the only use of railways that isn't at least arguably worthy of some degree of subsidy (if necessary) is the "meta-use" - ie railway enthusiasts travelling by train for the sake of travelling by train and not actually spending anything at a destination. Everything else potentially (important word) either removes cars from the road or contributes to economic or social well-being. Now, the degree to which different benefits are worth subsidising is a different matter....
Drinking and shopping contributes to economic or social well being - does that mean they should be subsidised?
Need to ask how society gains from specific rail subsidy and whether that is a greater gain than spending the money elsewhere, particularly as most of society doesn't use trains, and a fair number effectively can't as there isn't a rail station anywhere near them.
Many rail services are undoubtedly worth subsidy, but I am not sure taking leisure passengers around on diesel trains is that high up the list.
 

slowroad

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Taxes raised from motorists are several times greater than spending on the road network. Whether the excess is sufficient to offset external costs (pollution, accidents, congestion) is disputed. But pollution is reducing over time, so in principle taxation should reduce as well.
 

Qwertl

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There’s also the material resource costs to factor in as well. A train is in motion far more often than a lot of cars are. A car sitting at rest for most of its existence is a massive waste of the resources and energy used to create it.
 

Richardr

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It isn't really useful to look at tax raised by an action, and the amount spent on that activity. For example, being in work is a benefit to society, but that doesn't stop income tax and National Insurance. Governments need to spend money on all sorts of things, e.g. defence, schools, the NHS, and the Welfare state, none of which bring in any revenue.

The likes of fuel duty are part of that tax raising.

A wider view of what governments choose to spend money on and how much has to be taken.
 

Meerkat

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It isn't really useful to look at tax raised by an action, and the amount spent on that activity. For example, being in work is a benefit to society, but that doesn't stop income tax and National Insurance. Governments need to spend money on all sorts of things, e.g. defence, schools, the NHS, and the Welfare state, none of which bring in any revenue.

The likes of fuel duty are part of that tax raising.

A wider view of what governments choose to spend money on and how much has to be taken.
I don't think that really holds. Income tax and VAT are widespread general taxes. Car drivers are hit with extra rather punitive taxation with the excuse that car driving is a 'bad' thing with lots of externalities.
The big difference is that everyone uses the roads. A minority of people use the railways, so we should be more thoughtful about what gets subsidised and whether that provides good value for the taxpayer.
 

yorksrob

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I don't think that really holds. Income tax and VAT are widespread general taxes. Car drivers are hit with extra rather punitive taxation with the excuse that car driving is a 'bad' thing with lots of externalities.
The big difference is that everyone uses the roads. A minority of people use the railways, so we should be more thoughtful about what gets subsidised and whether that provides good value for the taxpayer.

I'm sure it was discovered that over 50% of the population used the train over the course of a year.
 
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