Predict gains/losses in your local area in next GE

[MikeWM]

The anger against Sunak will be immense if he tries to delay it until the last possible moment and that'll make them do worse than they would have done by holding it at a more sensible time of year, such as May or June.

Unless the polls shift considerably, I think October is rather more likely - the idea that elections always happen in the spring is a fairly new idea that only seems to have taken hold from 1979. Of the 10 post-war elections before that, 4 were held in October and 2 in February (with one each of March, May, June and July).

 

[LUYMun]

Aldershot would be predicted to remain Conservative, though there is a growing consensus to vote Labour, especially as their votes had grown in the past few GEs.

 

[Typhoon]

Indeed Rushcliffe was indeed held by Clarke during those Labour years; however, it’s a Remain constituency and surrounding areas would move to Labour as the alternative to the Tories. We saw at the 2019 GE that constituencies that were held by Labour for decades and decades fell to the Tories; so it’s not out of the question that Rushcliffe could go the other way.

Also I reckon there is a decent chance that Clarke had a fair amount of personal vote; he had established himself during the '70s and '80s; doubtless he would be seen around the constituency, he is the type; in a discussion he would appear 'reasonable', even if you disagreed with him. I know nothing of his successor, she is not local. Former aide to Crispin Blunt and consultant for Deloitte, followed by similar types of roles (culled from Wikipedia). There was a swing against her last time round, however the big beneficiaries were the LibDems whose vote went up from under 5% to over 15% so it may not be cut and dried.

As others have written, there is plenty of time yet, and, as with Rushcliffe, a lot will depend on the candidate. An established, well-liked candidate might have enough personal support to get them over the line. An outsider, life spent as a parliamentary assistant/ special advisor (SpAd), unsuccessfully fought a couple of safe Labour seats, parachuted in because it is their turn, clueless about the constituency, will leak votes. With quite a few Conservative MPs standing down, they may struggle to find enough inspirational candidates who will just get over the line against the odds.

 

[Gloster]

It was always said that a candidate’s personal profile was only worth around 1500 votes. I suspect that the fact that modern media methods make it far easier to get yourself known nowadays means that it is at least double that for those who know how to use YouTube, Facebook, etc. Of course, it does make it easier for idiots to make a fool of themselves.

 

[QSK19]

I seem to remember some years ago somebody saying that Bolsover was such a dead cert for Labour they even a dog would be elected to Parliament if it wore a Labour lapel badge!

I dare say that, unless the Tories get a serious grip on things, Labour could probably apply that theory and win seats that way at the next election!

 

[Thirteen]

I would expect a lot of the lost Labour seats like Bolsover will go back to Labour.

On a slightly different note, I'm interested to see how the voting will be like the London Mayoral election with the FPTP system, it's a pretty dead cert for Labour to win a third term but I'm curious to see the voting share for the other parties.

 

[nw1]

Also I reckon there is a decent chance that Clarke had a fair amount of personal vote; he had established himself during the '70s and '80s; doubtless he would be seen around the constituency, he is the type; in a discussion he would appear 'reasonable', even if you disagreed with him. I know nothing of his successor, she is not local. Former aide to Crispin Blunt and consultant for Deloitte, followed by similar types of roles (culled from Wikipedia). There was a swing against her last time round, however the big beneficiaries were the LibDems whose vote went up from under 5% to over 15% so it may not be cut and dried.

I would agree that Clarke both had the "incumbent factor" and the "reasonableness factor", he was well-known as a moderate and a Remainer (and this was apparently a Remain constituency, according to the post above).

So I can see it could swing, though really it should have swung in 2019 when Clarke stepped down and was replaced by someone who (from the description above) doesn't sound obviously appealing.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Mar 2023 ==

I seem to remember some years ago somebody saying that Bolsover was such a dead cert for Labour they even a dog would be elected to Parliament if it wore a Labour lapel badge!

I dare say that, unless the Tories get a serious grip on things, Labour could probably apply that theory and win seats that way at the next election!

Someone's said similar things about Fareham, but regarding its predisposition to the Tories, rather than Labour. Now if only that could swing.....

The ultimate "result" would be if the three biggest swings away from the Tories were to occur in Fareham, Ashfield and Stoke North.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 15 Mar 2023 ==

The single Isle of Wight seat has been split into two constituencies, which are both likely to go to the Conservatives. Although it is fair to say that there are only a limited number of ways cutting the cake, to my eyes they have chosen the one that best splits the Labour vote between the two seats. This seems to result in two fairly safe Conservatives seats, barring a landslide, rather than one very safe and one moderately safe.

I guess if one constituency contained the towns of Newport, Cowes, Ryde, Sandown and Shanklin, with little in the way of rural areas, and the other contained "the rest", the former might have at least a chance of being marginal.

 

[QSK19]

Someone's said similar things about Fareham, but regarding its predisposition to the Tories, rather than Labour. Now if only that could swing.....

The ultimate "result" would be if the three biggest swings away from the Tories were to occur in Fareham, Ashfield and Stoke North.

I think we would have to agree to disagree on that

Not keen on any of the parties as things stand; but if I had to pick a preferred result for those three constituencies you mention like my life depended on it, it would be for all of them to stay blue. I simply cannot stand Labour.

But as I’ve said in a previous post, differing opinions are great for democracy. What a boring world if everybody agreed with each other!